Column One: Netanyahu, Obama’s newest prop.

Diplomats: Missing equipment from Iran lab may be nuclear cover-up – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

UN nuclear inspectors revisiting Iranian labortatory discover some apparatus has disappeared which was believed to be used in Iran’s secret nuclear weapons program.

By The Associated Press Tags: Iran Iran nuclear IAEA

UN nuclear inspectors who were revisiting an Iranian laboratory to follow up on activities that could be linked to a secret nuclear weapons program recently discovered that some equipment believed used in the experiments has disappeared, diplomats said Friday.

	Technicians measuring parts of Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant in this undated photo.
	Photo by: AP

One of the diplomats told The Associated Press that senior officials within the International Atomic Energy Agency – the UN nuclear watchdog – were concerned that the removal was an attempted cover-up.

Two others confirmed that some apparatus had gone missing. One said it was too early to draw conclusions, suggesting it could have been taken to another site for nothing more than maintenance. The three spoke on condition of anonymity because information surrounding the Iran nuclear probe is confidential.

At issue is pyroprocessing, a procedure that can be used to purify uranium metal used in nuclear warheads.

Iran in January confirmed to the agency that it had carried out pyroprocessing experiments, prompting a request from the nuclear agency for more information – but then backtracked in March in comments at a closed meeting of the IAEA’s governing board.

In fact there is not pyroprocessing R&D activity and the question raised has been a misinterpretation by the Agency inspectors, said an excerpt of the Iranian statement made available this week to the AP.

The experiments prompted IAEA experts to revisit the site – the Jabr Inb Jayan Multipurpose Research Laboratory in Tehran – where they found some of the equipment removed to an undisclosed site, said the diplomats. One of the two said the electrolysis unit used in separating out impurities from uranium metal was among the apparatus that had been removed. Another said chemical apparatus used in the process were now missing.

IAEA officials said the agency would have no comment. Attempts to get Iranian comment were not immediately successful, with Vienna-based Iranian officials not answering their cell phones.

Any Iranian pyroprocessing work, even on an experimental basis, would add to suspicions that Tehran is interested in developing nuclear weapons – even though it insists it is solely interested in the atom as an energy source.

The UN Security Council is currently considering a fourth set of sanctions in response to the Islamic Republic’s refusal to halt uranium enrichment – which can create both nuclear fuel and the fissile core of warheads. It is also concerned about Tehran’s belated revelation earlier this year of a secret enrichment site under construction and its refusal to answer IAEA questions based on foreign intelligence and linked to suspicions of hidden nuclear weapons work.

North Korea Sinking Of South Korean Frigate Raises Arab Fear Of Nuclear Iran | Eurasia Review.

By Riad Kahwaji, CEO, INEGMA

The sinking of the South Korean frigate Cheonan last March 26 by a North Korean torpedo has prompted some Arab Gulf officials to wonder whether this would be a scenario that they would likely face with a nuclear-armed Iran in the future. North Korea, now equipped with nuclear arms, appears to have grown bolder in its provocations of its U.S.-allied neighbor in the south and other parts of East and Southeast Asia. An international team of investigators concluded that the warship was sunk by a North Korean torpedo. Seoul’s reaction has thus far been mild compared to its loss of 46 sailors in the incident. South Korea’s retaliation has been restricted to few steps: Cutting off trade ties with Pyongyang; barring North Korean ships from entering the South’s waters; seeking a U.N. Security Council resolution condemning the attack; and demanding an apology from the Northern communist state.

Many analysts plus Arab as well as Western officials have traditionally drawn a comparison between the approach used by North Korea to build its nuclear capabilities and the one adopted now by Iran. Both have embraced a strategy of clandestine nuclear activities and exploiting the loopholes in the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) system to advance the nuclear programs. North Korea has been the main supplier of ballistic missiles technology to Iran, which today builds medium-range missiles. Both countries are under some form of international sanctions and isolation. However, Iran, an Islamic Republic, has much more resources than its North Korean ally, especially oil and gas, which has made it more immune than Pyongyang to effective international isolation or sanctions. And both authoritarian regimes share strong animosity to the United States and the West.

Iran’s Arab Gulf neighbors to the West have traditionally felt threatened and intimidated by their large Persian neighbor. Although they did not have any direct military conflict with Iran, they however supported Iraq in the 1980-88 war with Iran. Iranian naval boats have often had skirmishes with Arab Gulf fishermen. Iran has ongoing border disputes with a number of these states and is accused by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) of occupying three of its islands (Greater and Smaller Tunb and Abu Mousa). The U.S.-allied Arab Gulf States have voiced concerns over Iran’s nuclear program and objected to Tehran acquiring nuclear weapons. Some Iranian officials and politicians make statements questioning the sovereignty of some of the Arab Gulf States, and even threatened to attack them if the U.S. or Israel carried out any military strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities. The sectarian tension in Iraq and Lebanon has also strained ties between the predominantly Shiite Muslim Iran with the predominantly Sunni Muslim Arab States.

“Iran without a nuclear bomb is now trying to dominate Arab countries and harass them on many fronts (Iraq, Lebanon and Palestinian territories) and in Gulf waters without care to Arab or international reaction, so imagine how Tehran would behave when it possesses nuclear weapons,” said one Arab official who asked not to be named. “What could Arab countries or even the United States do if submarines or gunboats of a nuclear-capable Iran attack and sink a Saudi or UAE frigate? Nothing more than simple words of condemnation,” he added. Another Arab Gulf politician said that Tehran would not differ much than Pyongyang in its behavior with its neighbors and the international community when it becomes a nuclear power. “Iran would likely become the absolute power-broker and dominator in the region because nobody, even the U.S., would be in the mood of escalating a military conflict with a nuclear power especially in an area rich with energy resources like the Gulf,” he said. Although Tehran has continuously asserted that its nuclear program was for peaceful uses, the United States, Israel and the West believe it conceals a military program. Most Arab people and officials believe Iran is seeking to build a nuclear arsenal.

Observers believe if Iran acquires nuclear weapons, some Arab countries would try to do the same to achieve an effective balance of power with Iran as well as Israel – another regional nuclear power. The Gulf states are now watching Pyongyang’s neighbor’s South Korea and Japan especially– to see whether they can rely on the U.S. and/or international community to deter future hostile North Korean actions. This issue raises an important question: Can non-nuclear states stand up to nuclear states who bully their neighbors?

This article was produced by INEGMA, the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis based in Dubai and reprinted with permission.

Jerusalem Post | Breaking News from Israel, the Middle East & the Jewish World.

Did withdrawal show weakness? – KansasCity.com.

On the 10th anniversary of Israel’s unilateral withdrawal from Lebanon, the country held a huge civil defense drill simulating a missile attack.

But this expensive and lengthy drill was not held to commemorate the event, of whose success then-Prime Minister Ehud Barak is so proud. It was held in an effort to figure out how to reduce the anticipated damage from missile strikes on the home front — especially those likely to be launched by Hezbollah.

Israel indeed needed to end its stay in south Lebanon, but it should have done so in a way that would increase deterrence, not by a humiliating flight that invites continued attacks — which indeed came, and on a large scale. Ever since then, we have been viewed by Hezbollah (and others ) as “a spider web.”

Today, Hamas, like Hezbollah, is celebrating: Gaza is full of missiles that can reach Tel Aviv and Ben-Gurion airport. And Israel, instead of preventing their arrival — or destroying them — is holding a huge preparedness drill (“the biggest in the country’s history”) to get ready for them, too.

That is what flight looks like — and this is its reward.

Read more: http://www.kansascity.com/2010/05/27/1975890/did-withdrawal-show-weakness.html#ixzz0p7Vprtil

Exclusive: Israeli Think Tank Offers Response Suggestions to an Islamist Attack » Publications » Family Security Matters.

May 28, 2010
Paul Williams, PhD
A leading Israeli think tank now recommends that a response by Israel to a non-conventional attack from Arab countries must include attacks on “major Muslim sites,” including Mecca and Medina, Islam’s two holiest cities.

Reader Comments: Submit Your Comment (0)

Report: Syria arming Hezbollah from secret bases – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Report: Syria arming Hezbollah from secret bases

British Times reports satellite images reveal Shiite organization ‘allowed to operate freely’ at secret compound in Syrian town of Adra, from which missiles are sent to Lebanon. Intelligence sources say ongoing smuggling increases chances of Israeli strike

Ynet

The chances that Israel may send a “calibrated signal” to Hezbollah and Syria by launching a precise airstrike against a weapons convoy are increasing, the British Times reported on Friday, following reports of Israeli plans to bomb a Syrian arms convey as it crossed the border into Lebanon. The Israeli strike was reportedly called off at the last minute.

Friday’s report covered tensions in the region, and citied satellite images of secret arms depots in Syria, in which surface-to-surface missiles destined for Hezbollah are stored.

According to the report, the Times has been shown images of one such site, located in a compound near the town of Adra, northeast of Damascus. The site reportedly includes living quarters for Hezbollah fighters, arms sheds and a fleet of trucks used for transferring weapons. The facility is believed to be one of several used as a base for weapons deliveries.

“Hezbollah is allowed to operate this site freely,” a security source told the paper. “They often move the arms in bad weather when Israeli satellites are unable to track them.” The weapons in question are either of Syrian origin, or are delivered from Iran by sea or by air.

It was recently reported that Syria transferred Scud missiles to the Shiite organization. The Times report claims that only two missiles were transferred, which American and Israeli intelligence sources believe have been stored in underground bunkers in the Bekaa Valley.

In light of the tight surveillance, one source said that Hezbollah may be considering returning the missiles.

Earlier this month, Yossi Baidatz, head of the Israeli Military Intelligence research department, said the recent transfer of arms to Hezbollah was just the “tip of the iceberg,” and the Times reported that the M-600 missiles Hezbollah posses grant the organization unprecedented accuracy that threatens strategic facilities inside Israel.

Syrian diplomat: Our bases nobody’s business

After the Israeli strike on one of the arms convoys was called off, reportedly around the time of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah’svisit to Damascus along with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Israel depended on American diplomatic efforts to put an end to the deliveries.

But according to Western intelligence sources, the failure of these efforts increase the chances of a targeted Israeli attack against a weapons warehouse or delivery.

John Kerry, head of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, visited Damascus several times in recent months, and reportedly urged Syrian President Bashar Assad to halt the flow or weapons to Lebanon.

Assad denied the allegations, and Western officials privately said the Syrian president is “flat out lying” about the weapons transfer to Hezbollah.

The Syrians insist that all their bases are exclusive to the Syrian military. Jihad Makdissi, the spokesman for the Syrian Embassy in London said, “Syria and Israel remain in a state of war as long as Israel refuses to implement UNSC (United Nations Security Council) resolutions to end the occupation of Arab lands; therefore if these military depots really exist it would be for the exclusive use of the Syrian Army to defend Syrian soil, and it is definitely nobody’s business,” he said.

UN report: Iran, Syria receiving North Korea nuclear technology – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

The seven-member panel monitoring the implementation of sanctions against North Korea said its research indicates that Pyongyang is involved in banned nuclear and ballistic activities in Iran, Syria and Myanmar. It called for further study of these suspected activities and urged all countries to try to prevent them.

DEBKA.

Middle East Time Bomb Ticks Faster as Syrian Missiles Placed in Firing Position

Benjamin Netanyahu and Rahm Emanuel

On Wednesday afternoon, May 26, White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel handed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu an invitation from President Barack Obama to meet him for a working meeting at the White House Tuesday, June 1 on his way home from Canada.
Emanuel’s visit – he arrived on May 23 – was described as a private family trip to celebrate his son’s bar-mitzvah in Jerusalem. But the US president found his right-hand man’s journey useful for tying the hands of prime minister Netanyahu and Defense minister Ehud Barak, in case they contemplated mounting an attack on the 800 Syrian Scud-D missiles piled up on the Lebanese border to prevent them reaching the hands of the Lebanese terrorist Hizballah – or even going ahead and striking Iran’s nuclear sites.
(See the first item in this issue on the placement of these missiles on the Syria-Lebanon border).
A day earlier, May 22, John Kerry, Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, was dispatched to Damascus to try and dissuade Syrian president Bashar Assad from shifting the Scuds the last few miles into Lebanon.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly‘s sources in Washington report the Obama administration is going all out to ward off a military showdown in the Middle East because it would interfere with his plans to resume nuclear dialogue with Iran.
But Thursday, May 27, brought high noon closer. Netanyahu flew off on trips to Paris and North America that morning and Israel’s five-day homeland defense exercise drew to a close. However, the night before, Syria placed all its armed forces on combat readiness for the first time since the 2006 Lebanon War and ordered its missile units to take up firing positions.
(See HOT POINTS below for details)

Washington turns its face to diplomacy, not war

In the midst of these war signals, Washington forged ahead with its policy of diplomatic engagement for solving conflicts on all fronts – against all the odds. But President Obama did not neglect to shore up his assets ahead of the talks by sending a nuclear submarine to cross the strategic Strait of Hormuz past the Iranian coast Thursday, May 27.
Tuesday, May 25, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton summed up her two days of talks with Chinese officials in Beijing to reporters: “We discussed at some length the shortcomings of the recent proposal put forward by Iran in its letter to the IAEA. There are a number of deficiencies (in the Iranian-Turkish-Brazilian nuclear agreement) which do not answer the concerns of the international community.”
Her comment could be taken to mean that there is some basis for discussion in the new proposal and if the flaws are repaired, the agreement may be acceptable.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly 446 of May 21 (It May Not Be All Bad, Say Obama’s People) outlined the changes the administration wants to see.
The day before (Monday, May 24), Washington asked the UN Secretary General to pass on the message that if the Brazilian-brokered enriched uranium deal for half of Iran’s stock to be swapped for nuclear rods in Turkey were accepted and implemented, it might serve as an important confidence-building measure for opening the door to a negotiated resolution of the Iranian nuclear issue.
In other words, there was room for discussion.
To persuade the American public that the administration was not again bending over backward to let Iran get away scot free, a leak was dropped into the Tuesday, May 25, US media revealing that Gen. David Petraeus, chief of the US Central Command, had last September signed an order authorizing clandestine military operations in allied and hostile Middle East, Central Asian and Horn of African nations for surveillance and cooperation with local security forces. Iran appeared from the document to be singled out for covert operations – most likely for gathering intelligence about the country’s nuclear program or identifying dissident groups that might be useful in a future military offensive.
It was hoped in administration circles that people would forget how cynically Tehran trifled with the sharp ultimatums President Obama slapped down exactly a year ago when Iran was discovered to have hidden a clandestine uranium enrichment facility (since abandoned) in a mountain near the holy city of Qom.

Israeli leaders agreeable

In Jerusalem, Netanyahu had no trouble giving Rahm Emanuel the same promise Assad gave Senator Kerry, namely that, barring unexpected events, he would do his utmost to cool border tensions and keep them from flaring into a fully-fledged war.
The Israeli prime minister was delighted with the affection showered on him now by the White House in Washington after a year of Obama’s icy aloofness – which, incidentally, helped him keep his government coalition on an even keel. He expects his White House welcome Tuesday, June 1 will be a lot warmer than the last two.
For both Israeli and Syrian leaders, “barring unexpected events” is a catchall caveat in case they choose to be let off the hook of their promises.
Netanyahu in particular may not be allowed to stay the course of restraint in the face of rising criticism from Israel’s military and security chiefs.
(This is discussed in detail in the next article.)

Grumbles in Israeli Military

End Restraint, Stop the 800 Scud D Missiles Reaching Hizballah

Gabi Ashkenazi

When the Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu returns from his working meeting with President Barack Obama in the second half of next week, he and defense minister Ehud Barak will have their hands full dealing with disgruntled generals and security chiefs, our military and Middle East sources report.
IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi is of one mind with the policy-makers (and Washington) on the need for utmost military restraint, but most national security and military leaders maintain that the 800 Scud D missiles, which are capable of carrying nuclear or chemical warheads, pose too great a peril for Israel to allow them cross into Lebanon and become operational.
They offer three arguments:
1. Israel stood idly by for the build-up of thousands of Iranian and Syrian missiles smuggled to the Lebanese Hizballah, but the Scud D missiles’ presence in Syrian bases minutes away from the Lebanese border must be seen – even in Jerusalem – as the last straw which broke the camel’s back.
The scenario of a chemical attack on Tel Aviv was drilled Tuesday, May 25, the third day of the Israel Home Front defense drill, ‘Turning Point 4’ (May 23-27).
The results and conclusions were disturbing.
More than 65 percent of the population lacks protection against an attack using toxic chemicals. Israel may suffer an estimated 3,300 casualties including up to 200 dead in conventional Syrian or Hizballah long range missile attacks, but if those missiles carry chemical warheads, the casualty figure would soar to 16,000 and leave more than 200,000 homeless.
Tiny Israel with its small population cannot possible afford casualties on this scale, say the government’s critics.
2. Iran and Syria will use the Scud D menace as a card for squeezing more concessions when the US faces Iran in negotiations on the new enriched uranium swap deal brokered by Turkey and Brazil. By allowing this to happen, Israel will strengthen Tehran’s hand and help bolster the hostile “Northern Alliance” of Iran, Turkey, Brazil and Hizballah.
3. In the view of most Israeli military and security leaders, if Netanyahu and Barak hold back from a timely strike against the menacing Scud missiles, they will ultimately shrink back from hitting Iran’s nuclear facilities as well. This pattern of non-response will lead Israel into coming to terms alongside the Obama administration with a nuclear-armed Iran.
Lawmaker Tzahi Hanegbi, Chairman of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, has been going around later warning that Iran’s attainment of nuclear weapons would pose Israel with mortal danger. He speaks for a large body of well-informed security and military chiefs – and is not the only one.

Israel’s top security-military echelons up in arms

DEBKA-Net-Weekly‘s military sources disclose comments at a closed-door lecture by General (res.) Amos Gilad, senior political-security advisor at the Defense Ministry, which are gaining ground among broad circles of high-ranking IDF and junior officers.
After serving a series of Israeli defense ministers as senior strategic adviser, Gilad is now voicing in private circles, exasperation with the policies Israel has followed in the decade since Bashar Assad came to power and vis-à-vis Hizballah. These policies, he maintains, were costly in terms of Israel’s deterrent strength and have left the country exposed to the current outburst of aggression from the North.
Unusually outspoken, Gen. Gilad says Israel came away from the 2006 Lebanon war, which was triggered by a Hizballah cross-border attack, with hardly a single strategic gain. Its outcome was harvested by Syria and Hizballah to upgrade Hizballah and transform the terrorist militia, ordered by the UN Security Council to disband, into a professional military force for confronting Israel’s armed forces.
Gilad asserted that the relative calm of the ensuing four years on Israel’s borders with Syria and Lebanon owed nothing to Israel’s deterrent power, as defense minister Barak and Chief of staff Ashkenazi were fond of stating; they owe everything, he says, to the quiet needed for Iran and Syria to finish arming Hizballah with the sophisticated tools of war for attacking Israel at the earliest opportunity.

Assad is not susceptible to diplomacy, only force

Regarding Israel’s waning deterrent strength, the Defense Ministry adviser drew attention to the fluctuations in Syrian ruler’s bellicosity, which peaked before Israel demolished his North Korean-built plutonium reactor in September 2007 and damped down right afterwards. But when Assad realized eighteen months later that the attack was a one-off, he went back to his threatening rhetoric for Israel and the open pursuit of brutal steps for subjugating Lebanon.
By May, 2010, his stridency and aggressiveness had reverted to their old level.
It’s about time we took Bashar Assad’s measure, said the defense ministry adviser. We all know he is tremendously cunning, but we have to remember that this guy gets up every morning, looks in the mirror and asks himself – What can I do today better than my late father (Syrian President Hafez Assad, who ruled Syria with an iron fist from 1971 to 2000)?
Gilad stresses that Bashar’s driving force is the urge to outdo his father.
Therefore, because Hafez forged a strong alliance with Tehran to preserve his regime at the head of his minority Allawite sect, Bashar felt compelled to deepen that alliance still further. In following in his father’s footsteps, he constantly needs to go that extra step.
The Obama administration and Israel have made no impression on the Syrian ruler because they missed his most basic motive, which is the compulsion to beat his father at his own game, according to Gilad. It explains why he is so unresponsive to any form of diplomacy rooted in rational political expediency, or even gain. But he is very sensitive to any display of force, especially if it menaces his dynastic grip on the regime
Ex-General Gilad’s arguments have been making the rounds and influencing members of the IDF high command.
The high command and its ministerial supporters are increasingly critical of the way the Netanyahu-Barak duo is handling the 800-Scud D missile crisis. Their clamor for Israel to take the weapons out before they cross into Lebanon is getting louder.