WarSclerotic

(Iran continues to give a new meaning to the word chuzpah every time it issues a statement.  Emboldened by what it perceives as Obama’s weakness and Israel’s subservience to the US, they think they can say anything they want and the world will cow tow.  I truly doubt they understand how the people of civilized nations see through their blustering subterfuge.  The governments may crawl, but ultimately the people of the world will put an end to this disgraceful chapter of human history. – Joseph Wouk)

Iran to West: Accept nuke deal as is.

Israel Insists a Drill Is Just a Drill – NYTimes.com.

JERUSALEM — As Israel embarked on a large-scale civil defense exercise on Sunday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sought to reassure Israelis and some jittery Arab neighbors that the nationwide drill was not meant to signal a deterioration in security or an imminent war.

“This is a routine exercise that has been scheduled for some time,” Mr. Netanyahu said at the start of the weekly cabinet meeting. “I would like to make it clear that it is not the result of any exceptional security development. On the contrary, Israel aspires towards calm, stability and peace.”

The five-day exercise, designed to test the readiness of citizens, the emergency services and local authorities in the case of war, is taking place for the fourth consecutive year. It comes amid growing concern in Israel about the rocket and missile capabilities of militant groups on its borders, and the potential threat of a nuclear Iran.

But the exercise appears to have rattled nerves in Lebanon, where Israel fought a month-long war against Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militia, in 2006. Prime Minister Saad Hariri told reporters in Cairo on Saturday that “to launch military exercises at such a time runs counter to peace efforts” with the Palestinians.

Hezbollah’s deputy head, Nabil Qaouk, said Friday that the military exercise was a sign of Israel’s aggressive intentions and that Hezbollah had gone on alert. Mr. Qaouk was speaking during a meeting at his home in southern Lebanon with the Jewish American intellectual Noam Chomsky, a fierce critic of both of American and Israeli policy who was barred by Israel from entering the Israeli-occupied West Bank from Jordan last week.

The Israeli military said the drill will include the sounding of sirens throughout the country on Wednesday and will “replicate emergency scenarios” in more than 30 local authorities, in cooperation with the Home Front Command.

In Gaza, unidentified gunmen attacked the site of a United Nations children’s summer camp before dawn on Sunday, burning empty water tanks and plastic sheds.

The Hamas government that rules the Palestinian enclave condemned the attack and said it had opened an investigation.

The beachside camp, which was still under construction, was set up by the United Nations Relief and Works Agency, which provides assistance to Palestinian refugees and their descendants. It was scheduled to open next month.

More than 20 masked militants were said to have taken part in the attack. The camp’s guard, Ibrahim Eliwa, 37, said he was awake at 3 a.m. when he saw “an army of gunmen approaching the camp.”

Mr. Eliwa was handcuffed. He said the gunmen tucked an envelope into his coat containing a letter and three bullets. “The letter carried threats to senior staff officials at UNRWA,” he said.

John Ging, operations director of the United Nations agency, promised to rebuild the camp and said that the agency would not be intimidated.

“It is a disgraceful situation,” he told reporters in Gaza. “There is no doubt in my mind that it is vandalism linked to a certain degree of extremism.”

The agency has been running summer programs for the past five years for some 250,000 children who study in its schools in Gaza. Hamas, the Islamic militant group, has been running its own camps since it took over Gaza in 2007.

In the Hamas camps, strict, bearded men, sometimes waving sticks, teach children the basic tenets of Islam. In the more popular United Nations camps, children’s activities have included painting, singing and swimming.

Last summer, Younis al-Astal, a Hamas lawmaker, accused the United Nations agency of “implementing a plan to spoil the growing generation of Gaza.”

Massive US Naval Build-Up Off the Shores of Iran | Editorial.

We urge you to read the article and form your own opinion as to what is going on off the shores of Iran. (and also this and this)

So – what IS going on?  Is the stage being set for the long expected attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities?  Well, nobody is going to admit that, even if it were true.  Is the US stationing itself, strategically, between Iran and Israel – as a clear warning to Israel NOT TO ATTACK IRAN?  With the Obama Regime clearly showing no favor for Israel, one must consider that possibility.

As one looks at the Iranian defense, especially the new Russian “Surface to Air Missiles,” one must consider the option of boots on the ground, inside Iran, to take out those mobile missiles by either hands-on destruction or painting the targets with lasers for aircraft to take out. Of course, we are describing a task, which would be undertaken by Special Forces troops.  Both Israel and the US have outstanding Special Forces who certainly have the capability to complete such a mission.

On the other hand, the US has the option of using its stealth aircraft to take out Iran’s nuclear facilities.  The Russian SAM’s can’t shoot ’em if they can’t see “em!

If stealth aircraft are to be involved in this mission, whatever it is, there will likely be no reports on their movement for they fly out of US bases, here in the states, and return to those same bases after their mission is complete.

Whatever the mission, this is a very large and a very visible task force assembling off Iran. SOMETHING IS going on.

It is important to remember the value of keeping the Straits of Hormuz open for the world’s flow of oil to continue, unimpeded, when the strike on Iran begins.  Iran has made it clear they will make an effort to block the straits immediately when the shooting begins.  Certainly one task of the US armada will be to secure the straits from attack by the Iranians.

Remember, too, that when THIS war begins it will be fought in the air, on land, and at sea. I should think that depending upon the intensity of the conflict and the durability of the Iranian forces, the use of tactical battlefield nukes would certainly be considered.  We KNOW the US has them and we THINK Israel has them as well.

With the American public signaling their war weariness it is unthinkable that the current regime would undertake another war unless they were sure it could be ended successfully and quickly.  Tactical nukes would do that.

Whatever is up, this naval flotilla gathering off the shores of Iran, sends a very strong signal that the US is not intimidated by Iran’s military posturing.  And it is never, ever, wise to thumb one’s nose at the IDF.  As the biblical story of David and Goliath points out, all too clearly, Israel has a very long record of defeating superior military forces.

Iran has rattled the tiger’s cage far too often.

Assad: Israel trying to ignite war – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Syrian president meets with French foreign minister, makes harsh accusations on backdrop of Israeli home front drill. He pleads with West to restrain Jewish state ‘in light of its dangerous tendencies and attempts to spark wars and conflicts’

Roee Nahmias

Top IDF general: It hasn’t been this quiet in north since 1948 – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

	GOC Northern Command Gadi Eisenkot
	Photo by: Tomer Appelbaum

GOC Northern Command issues calming message to residents of north as Israel launches 5-day homefront defense drill to prepare for possible war.

GOC Northern Command Gadi Eisenkot announced Sunday that “the Galilee hasn’t known a period of quiet such as this one almost since the establishment of the State of Israel.”

Speaking ahead of a massive five-day homefront defense drill dubbed “Turning Point 4” Eisenkot said that the Israel Defense Forces were going to “continue to act to maintain this quiet.”

The drill was due to last five days and be carried out in all parts of the country. During the first three days the drill was to involve IDF’s various command centers, the police, emergency services, ministries and other government offices.

Eisenkot made these remarks during a briefing for municipality heads along the confrontation line near Israel’s northern border.

“The big fear that emanates from the newspaper headlines comes from the behavior patterns of the [Lebanese militia] Hezbollah, which are a little reminiscent of the cold war” Eisenkot went on to say. “The pattern of mutual deterrence creates immense tension. The question, when the next conflict will arise, does not depend on one thing, but rather on a number of components, not all of which are up to us.”

“The only question that remains,” he continued, “is what will be the event that will spark the next conflagration. In my opinion, today, neither side has any interest in further conflict.”

“However,” Eisenkot went on to say, “The IDF knows how to handle simultaneous fronts in Syria, Lebanon and Gaza. The question is how we’ll handle it as a people, as a public, as a homefront that supports its soldiers. We can deter states, and groups from taking action, but we can’t deter states from getting stronger, and that is why we are prepared for all out war within hours, both on the command level and the draft level.”

During the briefing, several municipality heads raised concerns that the tensions along the border with Lebanon will escalate, and asked Eisenkot to keep them up to date so that they too can prepare and issue appropriate instructions to their constituents. “I hope that the only heat this summer will be the weather, and not wars like the media keeps suggesting,” the head of the Hatzor Glilit council said. “I feel that there is a growing fear among my constituency and I they need to receive a calming message that the routine is being preserved.”

The head of the Upper Galilee regional council remarked that “in order to avoid tension, civilians living near the border have developed sharp instincts over the years. Therefore, the IDF needs to keep officials and civilians in the area up to date.”

As tensions rise, Israel launches air raid drill | Reuters.

(Reuters) – Israel launched its biggest air raid exercise Sunday to test its preparedness against possible missile strikes from Iranian-sponsored militant groups as international tensions rose over Tehran’s nuclear program.

World

Israel has called for strong economic sanctions against Iran over its nuclear plans but, in a hint of possible military action, has said all options were on the table should diplomacy fail to resolve the dispute.

Israeli officials said the exercise, which will include sounding air raid sirens Wednesday, would focus on municipal authorities’ responses to a scenario in which missiles were launched from the Gaza Strip, controlled by Hamas Islamists, and by Hezbollah guerrillas in Lebanon. Both are allies of Iran.

In public remarks at the start of the weekly cabinet meeting Sunday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described Israel’s biggest civil defense exercise as a routine, protective move and said the government sought only “quiet, stability and peace.”

The air raid sirens will sound Wednesday nationwide in a signal to Israelis to take cover in shelters or designated secure areas for 10 minutes, and much of the public is expected to take part in this drill.

In a test of an emergency warning system, the military’s Home Front Command will also send text messages that read — “Have a nice day” — to cellphone owners in certain areas of the country, the army said in a statement to test communications.

Rescue services will be put on a practice emergency footing, while a partial distribution of gas masks is also planned, in addition to air raid drills to be held at schools and hospitals.

FIVE-DAY DRILL

The five-day drill dubbed “Turning Point 4” has sparked nervousness in the region as diplomatic efforts intensify to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions, which the West and Israel believe are aimed at building atomic weapons.

Iran denies its uranium enrichment program is a quest for nuclear arms and says it is purely for power. Israel is widely believed to have the Middle East’s only nuclear arsenal.

Itamar Rabinovitch, an expert on Middle East affairs and a former Israeli ambassador to Washington, said Israel must prepare for the possibility Iranian leaders would encourage Hamas and Hezbollah to fire on Israel in the event of stiffer U.N. sanctions against Iran.

“We must show we don’t intend to be sitting ducks in the event of such an attack,” Rabinovitch said.

Hezbollah fired more than 4,000 rockets into Israel during the 2006 Lebanon war. Hamas carried out numerous cross-border rocket attacks in the past, and Israel launched a war in the Gaza Strip in late 2008 with the aim of ending such strikes.

Israel has held a country-wide civil defense exercise annually for the past three years and military officials said the current drill is the most extensive in its 62-year history.

Hezbollah rockets did cause significant casualties during the Lebanon war, and Israeli officials have said that since the conflict ended, the group has bolstered its arsenal with more powerful and longer-range weapons.

Rockets fired from the Gaza Strip have rarely caused fatalities in Israel and carry a relatively small warhead. But Hamas has said it now has rockets that can reach deep into Israel.

Hizbullah Charges Massive Israeli Defense Drill a Plan for War – Defense/Middle East – Israel News – Israel National News.

Iran’s safety belt – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

Tags: Israeli exercise Lebanon US-Syria

Practicing responses to all-out missile onslaught

The White House has dispatched three top officials to the Middle East in an effort to calm war tensions which Lebanon and Syria have played up over Israel’s homeland missile defense exercise Turning-Point 4, debkafile‘s Washington sources report. As the exercise began, Sunday, May 23, OC Northern Command, Brig. Gady Eisenkott said: “No party concerned has an interest in another showdown, but the IDF could be ready to fight within hours.” He added that [if confronted] “Israel could take on both the Syrian-Lebanese front and Gaza.” He was talking to the local council heads in Galilee, northern Israel.

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu told the weekly cabinet meeting that the drill is just routine, not the consequence of any unusual security event. Israel seeks calm, stability and peace, he stressed, adding: “It is no secret that we live in a region beset with rocket and missile threats.”

The five-day exercise covering the whole country will test local and national authorities’ responses to simultaneous missile and rocket attacks against civilian locations from Lebanon, Syria, Iran and the Gaza Strip. Sirens Wednesday, May 27, will signal civilians to make for sheltered areas.
Syria has placed its air force and air defense forces on high alert, while Hizballah has transferred thousands of its militiamen to South Lebanon and placed the border region on a war footing against a supposed Israeli attack.
Saturday, May 22, John Kerry, Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, arrived in Damascus for talks with President Bashar Assad, his fifth visit to the Syrian capital. His spokesman said “Chairman Kerry planned to speak with President Assad about a range of issues critical to the stability of the region.” His obvious mission, debkafile‘s sources report, was to prevent security on the Syrian and Lebanese borders from running out of control in the wake of Damascus’ continuing buildup of Hizballah smuggled weapons arsenal.
The US official assigned with holding Israel back is President Barack Obama’s Chief of Staff, Rahm Emmanuel. Although his visit to Israel was described as private – for the traditional celebration of his son’s Bar Mitzva this week at the Western Wall – he set up appointments with President Shimon Peres, the prime minister and the defense minister Ehud Barak.

Assistant secretary of state Jeffrey Feltman who heads the Syrian-Lebanese desk, while on a round tour of Middle East capitals, is using press interviews to call on Syria to prevent smuggled arms reaching the Lebanese Hizballah and other terrorist organizations in Iraq.
He said talking to the Syrians was “not easy, but most important.” Speaking in Amman, Feltman said: “President Assad’s decisions affect security in the region and so Washington must be sure that he fully understands our concerns.”
Lebanese prime minister Saad Hariri arrives in Washington Monday, May 24, for his first meeting with President Barack Obama. This will also be the first time the White House receives a Lebanese prime minister bound in a power-sharing accord with a terrorist organization committed to “resistance” against Israel and bearing arms in violation of UN Security Council resolutions.
Obama’s adviser on counter-terrorism John Brennan “sanitized” the event by announcing after an advance trip to Beirut last week that the “United States should build up moderate (!) elements within Hizballah.”
This Iran-backed Shiite terrorist organization has always boasted that violent hatred for Israel and Jews is its only raison d’etre, yet not a single Israel official voice was raised to query Brennan’s delusive prescription.

Middle East Views | Negotiating Iran-style is a recipe for wasting time.

David Ignatius

Let’s be generous and call the frantic diplomatic maneuvers that have been taking place this week over Iran’s nuclear program a “negotiation,” Tehran-style.

Here’s how the scorecard looks: First the Iranians said yes in October to a deal to enrich uranium outside their borders; then they said no; then, on Monday, they said yes to a version of the accord brokered by Turkey and Brazil.

Tehran was surely hoping that by accepting the deal, it would head off a new sanctions resolution being drafted by the United Nations Security Council. The would-be mediators, Turkey and Brazil, were hoping to buff their credentials as leaders of a new “nonaligned movement.”

But the last-minute dealmakers appear to have miscalculated: On Tuesday, the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, including Russia and China, went ahead and endorsed a draft resolution condemning Iran’s nuclear program, ignoring Tehran’s machinations the day before.

The new U.N. resolution won’t stop Iran’s nuclear program, any more than the previous three did. The draft discusses energy sanctions and an arms embargo, but it doesn’t specify enforcement mechanisms. The U.S. and its allies will top up the U.N. sanctions with some tougher measures of their own, but those won’t be enough to halt Tehran, either.

What’s important about the unified U.N. stand is that it will force Iran back to the bargaining table if it wants to avoid growing diplomatic isolation from the world’s superpowers. Yes, Tehran can claim that it has support from two of the world’s rising nations, Turkey and Brazil, which it will tout as allies against the great satans of the Security Council. But realistically, the Iranians know that having lost Russia and China on sanctions, they are on shaky ground.

The Obama administration has been calculating that unity among the “P-5” (dip-speak for the five permanent Security Council members) is more important than the details of the sanctions resolution, and this week’s events showed that this strategy was right. The draft resolution was the payoff for President Barack Obama’s eight discussions about Iran with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev over the past year, and for the administration’s nascent partnership with the world’s true rising power, China.

What’s next in this diplomatic game of chicken? The answer, says a senior administration official, is that Iran must address two key issues that were part of the enrichment deal floated last October in Geneva. It called for Iran to turn over 2,640 pounds of low-enriched uranium and receive from abroad, in exchange, 260 pounds of uranium that has been enriched to 20 percent, for use in the Tehran Research Reactor for medical isotopes. The new wrinkle in the Turkish-Brazilian version announced on Monday was that the Iranian fuel would be shipped to Turkey rather than Russia.

To make the deal fly, said the senior U.S. official, Iran must first meet with the P-5 and Germany for detailed discussions, as specified in the original Geneva proposal. And second, Tehran must agree to forgo its own enrichment to 20 percent. Iran’s assertion that it had a unilateral right to continue enrichment to the 20 percent level, regardless of the exchange of fuel, cemented Russian and Chinese support for sanctions, said the senior official.

The problem with this protracted process of bargaining is that the clock is ticking, with Iran moving toward nuclear-weapons capability even as it haggles on the diplomatic front. As Iran plays the game, “yes” and “no” are never final; negotiators walk away from the table only to return; face-saving compromises are floated, rejected and then re-floated. It’s likely this enervating bargaining will end when Iran announces – surprise! – that it has all the elements for a nuclear weapon and is now a de-facto nuclear state.
The chances of avoiding this bad outcome are fractionally better today than they were a week ago, for one reason: When it came to the crunch this time, Russia and China refused to be enablers for Tehran. By endorsing U.N. sanctions, they stood with the nations that want to prevent Iran from having nuclear weapons.

After I visited Iran in 2006, I wrote that you could understand Iranian negotiating style by taking a drive in Tehran: At every intersection, drivers push for maximum advantage, giving ground only at the last moment to avoid a crash. There’s still a big risk of a crackup here, but it’s mildly encouraging that the U.N. Security Council will send another squad of police, even unarmed ones, to the dangerous intersection.