WarSclerotic

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

Tags: Netanyahu IDF Northern threat

Attending IDF’s northern war game

High officers leading this week’s big war game in northern Israel confronted Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and chief of staff Lt. Gen. Gaby Ashkenazi with harsh criticism over the lack of a clear government strategy for dealing with the rising Hizballah threat of aggression and the uninterrupted flow of advanced weaponry from Syria to Hizballah. The exercise drilled various war scenarios. debkafile‘s military sources report that Wednesday, May 12 at the end of the exercise, the officers accused the prime minister and chief of staff, who observed the drill, with doing nothing because they were over-anxious to “keep Israel’s borders with Syria and the Lebanese Hizballah calm, whatever the cost.”
This kept the Israel’s military machine waiting in passive mode for Hizballah to go to war when it was fully armed and ready.
Netanyahu used the occasion to accuse Iran of warmongering and inciting Syria and Hizballah to attack Israel with the lie that Israel was on the point of attack.

The IDF critics found this statement beside the point, feeble and playing into the hands of Syrian ruler Bashar Assad and Hassan Nasrallah, like many of the lame comments coming from defense minister Ehud Barak, debkafile‘s military sources quote one officer as saying: “Maybe Iran is feeding them false data, but so what? Assad and Nasrallah don’t need an excuse for aggression. We watch them with large binoculars, but theirs are bigger. And what do they see? That the IDF has not made the slightest preparation to make good on the Israeli government’s warnings of action if Syria goes through with transferring missiles and sophisticated weapons systems to Hizballah. So what conclusions have they drawn?” asked the officer: “That they can go on supplying Hizballah and preparing for war without fear or hindrance.”

Some of the officers drew comparisons between the current situation and the run-up to the 2006 Lebanon. Then, too, Israel kept hoping Hizballah’s war preparations would come to nothing if Israel sat on its hands, but in the end the Lebanese terrorists attacked.
“What happened then is what’s happening today,” said another officer. The IDF may have better hardware and improved logistics but, otherwise, Israel’s policy-maker are stuck dangerously in the 2006 time warp.

“Hizballah’s war-planners cannot avoid noticing that Israel has retreated from every warning it issued in the past year,” said this officer, and are therefore paying no heed to new ones.”

For instance, Israeli threats to strike Lebanon and Syria held Damascus back from handing Hizballah M-600 surface-to-surface missiles, essentially Scuds – but only for a while. Recently, when they saw nothing happening, Syria went ahead and sent them over the border.
As a result, Hizballah is now armed with an array of weapons which are far more destructive in terms of civilian lives, damage to property and their reach into Israel’s major cities than its 2006 arsenal
One officer summed the situation up by saying: “In view of the Netanyahu government’s policy of inertia, this war game should have been held in Tel Aviv – not just along the northern borders.”

U.N. resolutions vs Iran “not worth penny”: Ahmadinejad – Iran- msnbc.com.

TEHRAN – U.N. resolutions aimed at increasing sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program “are not worth a penny” and Tehran will give no ground to pressure, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Wednesday.

He was addressing six world powers that are discussing imposing more far-reaching sanctions on the major oil producer.

Iran says its nuclear energy program is a peaceful bid to generate electricity, whereas Western powers see it as a camouflaged effort to develop the means to make atom bombs.

The Islamic Republic has repeatedly rejected international demands to halt its escalating uranium enrichment program.

“You should know that your resolutions are not worth a penny,” Ahmadinejad said in a message to the big powers.

“If you think that by making fuss and propaganda you can force us to withdraw, you are wrong. The Iranian nation will not withdraw even one inch from its stance,” he said in a speech to a crowd in southwestern Iran.

Ahmadinejad and other Iranian official regularly dismiss the impact of U.N. and U.S. sanctions on the Islamic state. But analysts say they are damaging the economy by increasing trade costs and by deterring badly needed foreign investment.

The United States is pushing for a fourth round of punitive sanctions, including proposed measures targeting Iranian banks and shipping, over its refusal to suspend sensitive enrichment-related activity seen as geared to developing bombs.

Turkey and Brazil, both non-permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, oppose further sanctions and have been trying to revive a stalled nuclear fuel swap deal meant to minimize the risk of Tehran using enrichment for military purposes.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is due to visit Iran on May 16 and Iran’s Foreign Ministry said on Tuesday that Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan is also expected to be in the Iranian capital on that day.

The Obama administration has accused Tehran of trying to buy time by accepting Brazil’s offer to mediate and said Washington would be undeterred in its thrust for new sanctions.

Ahmadinejad, declaring the “end of the satanic U.S. dominance,” said foreign forces should leave the Middle East, warning they would otherwise receive a “slap on your face.”

Defence Minister Ahmad Vahidi said the United States faced isolation and major challenges, Fars News Agency reported.

The United States and Israel have not ruled out military action if diplomacy fails to resolve the nuclear dispute. Iran says it would retaliate for any attack.

“We think that the Americans are wise enough not to make an unwise act against Islamic republic,” Vahidi said, speaking on the last day of naval war games in the Gulf and Gulf of Oman.

Obama adviser warns Russia against arms sale to Iran | Reuters.

(Reuters) – The United States has made it clear to Russia that delivering an anti-aircraft system to Iran would have severe consequences for U.S. ties with Moscow, a senior advisor to President Obama said Tuesday.

Barack Obama |  Russia

In a generally upbeat assessment of ties with Russia, Gary Samore, White House coordinator for arms control, weapons of mass destruction proliferation and terrorism, said he thought Russia understood Washington’s position and would be surprised if Moscow shipped the S-300 anti-aircraft system that Iran has ordered.

“We’ve made it very clear to the Russians that that would have a very significant impact on our bilateral relations,” said Samore. “I think the Russians understand that the consequences would be very severe.”

Tehran has urged Russia not to bow to Western pressure over the sale of the system which, analysts say, could help Iran thwart any attempt to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities.

The United States and Israel have refused to rule out military action against Iran if diplomacy fails to resolve the dispute over its nuclear facilities. Tehran says its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, but Western governments believe it is aimed at bomb-making.

Washington is pressing other global powers to agree to a fourth round of U.N. sanctions against Tehran over its refusal to halt its nuclear work, but Samore said Iran’s program had suffered technical setbacks, giving diplomacy a bit more time.

“The nuclear clock is not moving as quickly as some feared,” he said.

DEFENDING RESET WITH RUSSIA

Samore defended the Obama administration’s decision this week to revive an agreement with Russia in which the two countries would cooperate on civilian nuclear energy, saying the Russians had been more cooperative on issues ranging from dealing with Iran to reducing nuclear arms.

But he stopped short of saying that the proposed nuclear deal would be withdrawn if the Russians sent the anti-aircraft system to Iran, or backed away from supporting a new resolution on U.N. Security Council sanctions against Iran.

“I think we are seeing good cooperation from the Russians and I think that will be apparent to everybody once the Security Council takes action,” Samore said. “I think we will get a good resolution with Russian and Chinese support.”

Washington’s effort to renew the civilian nuclear deal with Russia is the latest attempt to “reset” U.S. relations with Russia, one of President Barack Obama’s foreign policy priorities.

The civilian nuclear deal was shelved almost two years ago over Russia’s war with Georgia, when relations between Washington and Moscow reached a post-Cold War low.

The agreement is not a treaty but it must be submitted to Congress for a 90 day review and lawmakers can vote to kill it before it becomes effective.

Some Republicans in Congress have expressed concern that Obama is going too far in Russia’s direction before getting Moscow to sign on to a tough sanctions resolution on Iran.

“By trading this agreement for Russian support for a weak, meaningless round of Iran sanctions at the UN Security Council, the U.S. has severely hampered its own efforts to isolate the Iranian regime,” said Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, the ranking Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee.