Archive for May 3, 2010

Iran: Holding Nothing Back

May 3, 2010

The Yeshiva World » Iran: Holding Nothing Back » Frum Jewish News.

May 3, 2010 <!–

Filed under: General News, Headlines & Breaking Stories, Israel News — Y.W. Editor @ 9:45 am

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The Iranian’s brazen defiance of world dictate may only be surpassed by Tehran’s insolence, an in-your-face attitude that is perhaps unsurpassed in the international diplomatic arena.

In the latest episode of Iranian style diplomacy, the nation’s former ambassador to Damascus, Hussein Sheikh al-Islam, stated US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton “is not too intelligence” regarding her recent comments confirming Israel’s accusations that Syria, with the assistance of Iran, has been sending Scud missiles to Hizbullah in southern Lebanon. In his reference to Clinton, al-Islam stated “she is like a parrot” who basically repeats the statements released by Israel’s President Shimon Peres, adding she most likely has never seen a Scud missile and is therefore unaware how it looks.

In an official statement, Iran’s Embassy in Tehran released a formal statement calling Clinton’s remarks “baseless”. The Arab media also carried the former ambassador’s statement against Clinton.

Referring to Mr. Peres as the “president of the Zionist entity, al-Islam accuses him of releasing the baseless statements, adding those people with less intelligence, such as Secretary Clinton, continue to repeat them. He went on with his attack against the secretary, stating “this woman” does not understand the nature of the border realities between Syria and Lebanon, or a Scud, or the nature of the Lebanese mountainous terrain in which Hizbullah operates.

Al-Islam explained the Scuds are outdated, decades old, requiring a tractor-trailer bed to transport them so they cannot be hidden or navigate the complicate mountainous terrain as Peres accuses. He adds that the outdated missiles simply do not fit the needs of Hizbullah in its ongoing conflict with Israel.

In the unprecedented attack against the secretary, he added “it appears the American military man lack the courage to come out and say what they know…and the United States calls herself a superpower, simply frightening”.

Al-Islam’s statements coincide with the arrival in New York City of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who is attending the United Nations Nuclear Proliferation Treaty conference.

The Region: Bright spots, anyone?

May 3, 2010

The Region: Bright spots, anyone?.



Let’s take a dispassionate look at the changes in the Middle East over the past year.

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Let’s take a deep breath, clear our heads of any ideological or partisan preconceptions and then ask a simple question: How has the Middle East changed in the last year?


If one approaches this in a fair-minded, calm and honest manner, the answers are quite shocking.

Let’s start with Iran. While some companies and banks have been discouraged from doing business with Iran, the sanctions or barriers to Teheran are almost the same as they were a year ago. That means that Iran has moved one year closer to obtaining nuclear weapons without serious hindrance. This is not good. No blather about conferences, plans, meetings, speeches and efforts should conceal this fact.

What about the keystone of Iranian strategy, its alliance with Syria? Despite much Western talk about pulling Syria away from Iran – which isn’t going to happen – the relationship is closer than ever. No blather about conferences, plans, meetings, speeches and efforts should conceal this fact.

Lebanon? It is more in the grip of Iran, Syria and Hizbullah than a year ago. The Lebanese moderates have retreated and some have changed to a neutral position, because they know the West will not back them. Lebanon’s president is ready to align with the Iran-Syria axis. Druse leader Walid Jumblatt, the lion of the opposition, has made his peace with the Syrians, as has Sa’ad Hariri, despite the fact that Damascus was responsible for killing both their fathers. Hizbullah, says the US secretary of defense, has more missiles than most industrialized countries though the UN promised to block these supplies back in 2006. No blather about conferences, plans, meetings, speeches and efforts should conceal this fact..

Turkey? Both the Iranian and Syrian governments have bragged that Turkey is now their ally. The Turkish regime conducts military maneuvers with Syria and not Israel. Turkey’s government opposes any sanctions or pressure on Iran regarding nuclear weapons. Today, Turkey is no longer a reliable ally of the US.

No blather…. you know the rest.

US-ISRAEL relations? For the moment, they are on a better footing but they have gone through several crises since the Obama administration took office. On at least two occasions – settlement blocs and also the freeze on West Bank construction only – the administration broke previously made promises to Israel by itself or its predecessor. Moreover, an unprecedented tone of distrust and hostility has set in on Washington.

The Palestinian Authority? Despite extensive US efforts to prove how pro-Palestinian it is, the PA has yet to do anything for the US, including breaking its promise not to take the lead in pushing the Goldstone Report or to hold direct negotiations with Israel. With US policy unwilling to press the PA on concessions, the Obama administration has given the PA a lot of support but obtained nothing in return.

What about the Israel-Palestinian peace process? Well, the best hope at present is that it might return to indirect negotiations, which puts it roughly at the level of contacts prevailing back in 1991. Indeed, getting the two sides to talk – however distantly, however slowly – is going to be regarded by the Obama administration as a huge victory meriting some champagne-drinking. This is pretty pitiful.

How about US relations with the relatively moderate Arab states, moderate compared to Syria that is? Despite Obama’s Cairo and Istanbul speeches, the outreach to Muslims, the hint that Islamists would be welcome to dialogue, the distancing from Israel, there is not one iota of improvement. Arab regimes will literally not do anything the US wants.

THIS BRINGS us to the one great achievement claimed by the current US government – high popularity in the Arabic-speaking world. Whatever numbers can be pulled out of polls, and they aren’t as good as many people think, any popularity Obama has is totally useless from the standpoint of US interests.

Iraq? It is a relative bright spot, with the US withdrawal under way. There are terrible problems with infighting in Iraq’s government, which might turn quite unstable. This is not so much the Obama government’s fault, but what is worthy of blame is its cowardly refusal to back Iraqi protests against Syria’s sponsorship of terrorism. At any rate, the calm that does exist is due in no small part to Teheran’s desire to keep things quiet until the US pulls out, then try to increase its own influence in the country. Not great.

Pakistan should be a big disappointment. True, the government is holding together. But despite the massive tidal wave of American aid, the regime is only willing to defend itself, not exert a real effort to wipe out the Taliban and al-Qaida on the border. And of course Pakistan is shielding its own terrorist assets that have been used to commit horrendous murders in India. Not good.

Finally, Afghanistan where the president has made a public relations-oriented decision: send in the troops in a pseudo-surge to show his apparent toughness, then pull them out to show his apparent dovishness. And with all good intentions the military and political leadership has set an impossible program of stabilizing Afghanistan and providing it with a good government. Meanwhile, bilateral relations have hit an all-time low.

Have I missed some bright spot or great achievement? I don’t think so. It’s a pitiful situation. What is the point of making this list? Not, despite what you might think, to bash Obama. The real problem is the refusal of policy-makers to recognize just how bad things are and how negative the impact of their policies has been.

It is not too late to change course. But how can opinion-makers explain this to administration officials when most of them don’t see how much has gone wrong? Waking up is the first step.

The writer is director of the Global Research in International Affairs Center and editor of Middle East Review of International Affairs and Turkish Studies. His personal blog can be read at http://www.rubinreports.blogspot.com


Barak says US-Israel crisis over

May 3, 2010

Barak says US-Israel crisis over.

WASHINGTON – The US-Israel relationship is back on track, Defense Minister Ehud Barak said as he wrapped up a trip here last week.

“I feel very strongly that these differences, these slight disputes are behind us,” Barak said in an address to the American Jewish Committee on Thursday night. “The relationship between our defense establishment and the American one is extremely good, deep, and [the bonds] are intimate and unbreakable.”

He pointed to conversations he had with a slew of top officials here, including his counterpart US Defense Secretary Robert Gates, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and National Security Adviser Jim Jones, whose meeting with Barak was joined by President Barack Obama himself for over half an hour.

The visit, which included an honor guard at Barak’s arrival at the Pentagon and a rare joint press conference with Gates, capped two weeks of sustained outreach from the administration to Israel and US Jewish groups.

Clinton also appeared before the AJC and an Israel-oriented think tank. Both she and Obama issued warm statements on Israel’s Independence; Obama sent a letter reiterating similar points to a major Jewish umbrella organization and top White House figures including Jones and senior adviser David Axelrod have made speeches on the importance of the US-Israel relationship at major Jewish and Israeli venues.

The effort comes amid some of the deepest tensions between the US and Israel in several years, with prominent members of the American Jewish community raising questions about the Obama administration’s approach to Israel and the Middle East.

The outreach seems to have calmed temperatures, however, with Barak certifying the improvement with his comments on Thursday night.

Barak also praised the US for its steps on Iran in terms of seeking sanctions and continuing with diplomacy.

On Thursday night, however, he stressed that there must be a deadline to evaluate whether sanctions have been effective.

“Within a clear time limit, the world will have to judge whether it works,” he said.

Barak also expressed urgency on reaching a peace agreement with the Palestinians, citing the demographic threat.

He warned that without a two-state solution, the options would be a binational state or a non-democratic state.

“If a block of millions of Palestinians will not vote, it’s a non-democratic state however we call it,” he said.

Though Barak noted that most of the governing coalition is right-wing – his Labor party being the sole exception – he stressed that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is ready to work toward peace.

“It’s not easy for us as a government to move forward,” he said. “But we are ready.”


John Bolton: Get Ready for a Nuclear Iran – WSJ.com

May 3, 2010

John Bolton: Get Ready for a Nuclear Iran – WSJ.com.

Negotiations grind on toward a fourth U.N. Security Council sanctions resolution against Iran’s nuclear weapons program, even as President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad arrives in New York to address the Non-Proliferation Treaty review conference. Sanctions advocates acknowledge that the Security Council’s ultimate product will do no more than marginally impede Iran’s progress.

In Congress, sanctions legislation also creaks along, but that too is simply going through the motions. Russia and China have already rejected key proposals to restrict Iran’s access to international financial markets and choke off its importation of refined petroleum products, which domestically are in short supply. Any new U.S. legislation will be ignored and evaded, thus rendering it largely symbolic. Even so, President Obama has opposed the legislation, arguing that unilateral U.S. action could derail his Security Council efforts.

The further pursuit of sanctions is tantamount to doing nothing. Advocating such policies only benefits Iran by providing it cover for continued progress toward its nuclear objective. It creates the comforting illusion of “doing something.” Just as “diplomacy” previously afforded Iran the time and legitimacy it needed, sanctions talk now does the same.

Speculating about regime change stopping Iran’s nuclear program in time is also a distraction. The Islamic Revolution’s iron fist, and willingness to use it against dissenters (who are currently in disarray), means we cannot know whether or when the regime may fall. Long-term efforts at regime change, desirable as they are, will not soon enough prevent Iran from creating nuclear weapons with the ensuing risk of further regional proliferation.

We therefore face a stark, unattractive reality. There are only two options: Iran gets nuclear weapons, or someone uses pre-emptive military force to break Iran’s nuclear fuel cycle and paralyze its program, at least temporarily.

There is no possibility the Obama administration will use force, despite its confused and ever-changing formulation about the military option always being “on the table.” That leaves Israel, which the administration is implicitly threatening not to resupply with airplanes and weapons lost in attacking Iran—thereby rendering Israel vulnerable to potential retaliation from Hezbollah and Hamas.

It is hard to conclude anything except that the Obama administration is resigned to Iran possessing nuclear weapons. While U.S. policy makers will not welcome that outcome, they certainly hope as a corollary that Iran can be contained and deterred. Since they have ruled out the only immediate alternative, military force, they are doubtless now busy preparing to make lemonade out of this pile of lemons.

President Obama’s likely containment/deterrence strategy will feature security assurances to neighboring countries and promises of American retaliation if Iran uses its nuclear weapons. Unfortunately for this seemingly muscular rhetoric, the simple fact of Iran possessing nuclear weapons would alone dramatically and irreparably alter the Middle East balance of power. Iran does not actually have to use its capabilities to enhance either its regional or global leverage.

Facile analogies to Cold War deterrence rest on the dubious, unproven belief that Iran’s nuclear calculus will approximate the Soviet Union’s. Iran’s theocratic regime and the high value placed on life in the hereafter makes this an exceedingly dangerous assumption.

Even if containment and deterrence might be more successful against Iran than just suggested, nuclear proliferation doesn’t stop with Tehran. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey and perhaps others will surely seek, and very swiftly, their own nuclear weapons in response. Thus, we would imminently face a multipolar nuclear Middle East waiting only for someone to launch first or transfer weapons to terrorists. Ironically, such an attack might well involve Israel only as an innocent bystander, at least initially.

We should recognize that an Israeli use of military force would be neither precipitate nor disproportionate, but only a last resort in anticipatory self-defense. Arab governments already understand that logic and largely share it themselves. Such a strike would advance both Israel’s and America’s security interests, and also those of the Arab states.

Nonetheless, the intellectual case for that strike must be better understood in advance by the American public and Congress in order to ensure a sympathetic reaction by Washington. Absent Israeli action, no one should base their future plans on anything except coping with a nuclear Iran.

Mr. Bolton, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, is the author of “Surrender Is Not an Option: Defending America at the United Nations” (Simon & Schuster, 2007).