WarSclerotic

NTI: Global Security Newswire – Israel Mulls U.S. Stance on Unilateral Iran Strike.

Two rockets fired from Jordan at Eilat – Haaretz – Israel News.

Two Katyusha rockets were fired from Jordan toward the southern Israeli city of Eilat on Thursday.

One of the rockets struck an open field near the Jordanian city of Aqaba, while the other exploded in the waters off the coast. There was no word of damages or casualties.

The defense establishment and the Jordanian circumstances were investigating the incident.

A similar incident occurred some five years ago, when militant linked to Al-Qaida launched a rocket at southern Israel.

It was not yet clear who was responsible for the rocket fired on Thursday

U.S.: Israel-Palestinian peace failures strengthening Iran – Haaretz – Israel News.

U.S. President Barack Obama’s administration said on Wednesday that progress toward Middle East peace would help thwart Iran’s ambitions by preventing it from “cynically” using the conflict to divert attention from its nuclear program.

Drawing an explicit link between Israeli-Palestinian peace efforts and Washington’s drive to isolate Iran, Obama’s national security adviser, Jim Jones, urged bold steps to revive long-stalled Middle East negotiations.

U.S. officials hope that shared Arab-Israeli concerns about Iran can be exploited to spur old foes to help advance Israeli-Palestinian peace and restrain Tehran’s nuclear activities and rising influence in the region.

Jones coupled an appeal to Israel and its Arab neighbors to take risks for peace with a warning to Iran that it would face “real consequences” for its nuclear defiance. Obama is leading a push to tighten UN sanctions on Tehran.

“One of the ways that Iran exerts influence in the Middle East is by exploiting the ongoing Arab-Israeli conflict,” Jones told the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

“Advancing this peace would … help prevent Iran from cynically shifting attention away from its failures to meet its obligations,” he said.

The Israeli government, locked in a dispute with the United States over Jewish settlement policy, has made clear it sees confronting Iran as more of a security priority for Washington, and Middle East peace should be handled on a separate track.

Jones – while voicing disappointment over the failure to jumpstart U.S.-sponsored indirect peace talks – insisted progress toward peace is a U.S. interest as well.

That seemed to echo Obama’s assertion last week that a two-state solution to the decades-old conflict was “a vital national security interest”, adding to speculation that he was considering his own broad peace proposal

Syria-Hezbollah ‘Scud deal’ taking center stage in Arab world – Haaretz – Israel News.

Syria’s alleged delivery of Scud missiles to Hezbollah, first reported by a Kuwaiti newspaper some two weeks ago, continues to evoke contradictory responses.

After President Shimon Peres publicly accused Syria of delivering the missiles came denials from Syria and Lebanon, and several confused statements from the American administration.

The leaders of Egypt and Syria are expected to meet sometime in the next weeks in Sharm el-Sheikh, according to the Al-Hayyat newspaper. Commentators in the Arab media say the Scud missiles will be one of the gathering’s central issues, due to Egypt’s fear that the arms delivery harbingers an impending conflagration between Israel and Hezbollah.

Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri said Wednesday that Israel was deliberately spreading lies about the missile delivery, with the intent of using them to predicate a war against Lebanon. Hariri compared the Scud missile report to claims about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, which had not been found after the American invasion in 2003.

This is Hariri’s official position. Privately, Hariri understands the Scud missiles could foreshadow Lebanon getting entangled in another flare-up.

If the meeting between between Syrian President Bashar Assad and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak will take place, Assad will hear Egyptian fears about the danger Damascus is bringing upon the region by bringing Scud missiles into Lebanon. When the Second Lebanon War erupted, Saudi Arabia and Egypt launched an attack on Hezbollah for dragging the region into a risky, uncalculated escapade.

Perhaps this is the purpose of the Syrian and Egyptian talks after four years of no meetings between the two leaders – avoiding an unnecessary risky undertaking.

Meanwhile, Washington has not presented a clear position. Since the beginning of the week Pentagon and State Department spokesmen have issued various comments from which it was not clear whether the United States is certain of the arms delivery or merely suspects it had taken place.

United States Senator Dianne Feinstein from California, a Democrat who serves as head of the Senate Intelligence Committee, has a clearer view of the issue. Feinstein told AFP on Tuesday “I believe there is a likelihood there are Scuds that Hezbollah has in Lebanon,” she said. “This is a real point of danger for Israel.

Then she added, “There’s only one thing that’s going to solve it, and that’s a two-state solution.”

Should these two issues necessarily be connected? Apparently only Obama’s administration knows for sure.

The Israel Defense Forces General Staff is following the commotion caused by the Kuwaiti report with some satisfaction. This is the first time since the exposure of the Syrian nuclear device in 2007 that Syrian President Bashar Assad has been caught in such a patently problematic activity, a senior officer told Haaretz.

The Syrians appear upset about the exposure, among other things because the U.S. in response delayed the return of its ambassador to Damascus.

“They knew about the missiles and the Western intelligence services knew. Now the world knows too. It proves that while Assad presents himself to Europe as a peace seeker, he is adhering to his strategic alliance with Iran and Hezbollah,” the officer said.

Israel sees the missiles as symbolically significant rather than practically important. Some of Hezbollah’s rockets are more accurate and their warheads could be almost as deadly.

Iran announced on Tuesday it was launching a three-day drill in the Hormuz Straits area, involving Revolutionary Guards’ naval, air and ground forces. The drill’s purpose is to “preserve security in the Persian Gulf and straits,” Iran said.

Iran has been flexing its military muscles a lot in the past weeks, probably among other things due to conjectures that the United States would advance a UN resolution to impose sanctions on the Islamic Republic in June.

Earlier this week Iran displayed in a military parade in Tehran what it described as a local version of the Russian S-300 surface-to-air missile system. As far as Israel is concerned, the delivery of S-300 missiles to Iran, which Russia has held up so far, would be worrying as it would somewhat restrict the ability to attack Iran’s nuclear sites from the air.

Israeli weapons experts who looked at the pictures coming out of Tehran thought at first the Iranians were exhibiting fake missiles to deceive and deter the world. But after further examination researchers Tal Inbar of the Fisher Brothers Institute for Air and Space Strategic Studies, and Uzi Rubin discerned a vehicle carrying a radar.

The radar is very similar to the Chinese and Russian made S-10, another edition of the S-300. If this is indeed what it is, the Iranians have either received the radar indirectly from the Russians or their weapons development is more advanced than Israel has believed it to be.

Obama must stop demanding the impossible from Israel – Haaretz – Israel News.

Will war break out in the summer? In Israel, people still want to believe that the powers stabilizing the Middle East are stronger than the powers destabilizing it. They believe in the ostensible deterrence achieved in the north and south during the Second Lebanon War and Operation Cast Lead. However, Jordan’s King Abdullah is not the only one warning about war in the summer. Other international figures who know the region well fear a sudden military escalation. We can’t know when the next war will break out, they say. We also can’t know where, but the Middle East has become a powder keg. Between the summers of 2010 and 2011, that keg can catch fire.

The main war scenario is that of a conflict with Iran. If next year the United States or Israel uses force against Iran, Iran will strike back. The Iranian attack will be both direct and indirect. The indirect strike will be by Hezbollah. When Israel responds, Syria might not stand idly by. War between Israel, Iran, Syria and Hezbollah will not resemble any war we have known in the past. Hundreds of missiles will land on Tel Aviv. Thousands of people will be killed. Hundreds of missiles will hit air force bases and Israel Defense Forces command centers. Hundreds of soldiers will be killed. The crushing Israeli counterstrike will demolish Beirut and Damascus. Israel will win, but the victory will be painful and costly.

The second war scenario is that of a reconciliation with Iran. If next year U.S. President Barack Obama acts toward Iran the way George W. Bush acted toward North Korea, Iran will go nuclear. If Obama prevents Israel from acting against Iran and does not act itself, Iran will become a leading power in the Middle East. The outcome will be a loss of respect in the Sunni world for the United States and a loss of inhibitions in the Shi’ite and radical world vis-a-vis Israel. A serious conflict could then break out between Israel and Hamas, Israel and Hezbollah and perhaps even Israel and Syria. A violent deterioration could also occur between Israel and other neighbors.

A loss of U.S. strategic hegemony would mean that opponents of the West will shake up the Middle East. A loss of Israel’s strategic monopoly would result in attacks on it by old and new enemies. The age of relative quiet that has typified Israeli-Arab relations for the past 35 years will be over forever.

The conclusion is clear: The essential task now in the Middle East is the prevention of war. That’s not the same as pursuing peace. Sometimes it’s precisely the attempt to achieve an unattainable peace that ignites a war. In the current sensitive situation, there must be no illusions and no mistakes. Political correctness must not be allowed to cause a historic disaster. And when the glasses of political correctness are taken off, a clear picture emerges. To prevent war in the Middle East, the United States and Israel must show strength and generosity, deterrence and moderation. Together they must promote a cautious and gradual diplomatic process that will weaken the region’s extremists, strengthen its moderates and curb Iran. They must maintain the democratic alliance that has stabilized western Asia for two generations.

The main responsibility now rests with the United States. The Netanyahu government has made many mistakes over the past year, but so has the Obama administration. The latter has wasted 15 precious months in dialogue with Iran without imposing any sanctions and maintaining the illusion of an immediate Israeli-Palestinian peace. The open, unilateral pressure Washington has exerted on Jerusalem has both distanced peace and brought war closer. Therefore, if the Obama administration does not want the next war to be named after it, it must urgently change its policies. It must demand the possible from Israel, not the imaginary. It must demand what is essential from Iran. It must show determined and sober leadership that will prevent war now and lead to peace tomorrow.

The volcano that erupted last week in Iceland will be nothing compared to the volcano that could erupt in the near future in the Middle East. But the volcano here is a human one. People are stoking it and people can also cool it down. The lives of hundreds of millions now depend on the wisdom and careful consideration of one man: Barack Obama.

Obama to U.S. Jews: Nothing will distance us from Israel – Haaretz – Israel News.
As relations between Israel and Washington lurch from crisis to crisis, President Barack Obama has had to face down criticism over his Middle East policy from within the United States.

The president on Wednesday sent a rare letter to Alan Solow, chairman of the Conference of Presidents of Major Jewish Organizations and a long-term Obama ally, in an attempt to allay Jewish fears that the United States is distancing itself from Israel.

In the letter, Obama emphasized his commitment to Israeli ties, saying his policy on the Middle East had been misinterpreted.

“I am sure you can distinguish between the noise and distortion about my views that have appeared recently, and the actual approach of my administration toward the Middle East,” Obama wrote.

He continued: “All sides should understand that our commitment to Israel is unshakeable and that no wedge will be driven between us.”

The letter follows a week of open tensions between the U.S. government and Jewish community leaders after World Jewish Congress president Ronald Lauder took out newspaper advertisements criticizing Obama’s Middle East policy.

A day later, Nobel laureate Elie Wisel did the same, writing in a full page advertisement in the Washington Post that U.S. pressure would not force a solution to the dispute over Israeli building in East Jerusalem.

“For me, the Jew that I am, Jerusalem is above politics,” Wiesel wrote. “It is mentioned more than six hundred times in Scripture – and not a single time in the Koran…the first song I heard was my mother’s lullaby about and for Jerusalem.”

Obama told Solow that while he remained dedicated to a two-state solution to Israel’s conflict with the Palestinians, his government would not impose a peace settlement.

“I am deeply committed to fulfilling the important role the United States must play for peace to be realized, but I also recognize that in order for any agreement to endure, peace cannot be imposed from the outside,” he wrote.