WarSclerotic

Inspectors Say Iran Worked on Warhead – NYTimes.com.

WASHINGTON — The United Nations’ nuclear inspectors declared for the first time on Thursday that they had extensive evidence of “past or current undisclosed activities” by Iran’s military to develop a nuclear warhead, an unusually strongly worded conclusion that seems certain to accelerate Iran’s confrontation with the United States and other Western countries.

The report, the first under the new director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Yukiya Amano, also concluded that Iran’s weapons-related activity apparently continued “beyond 2004, “ contradicting an American intelligence assessment published a little over two years ago that concluded that work on a bomb was suspended at the end of 2003.

The report confirms that Iran has enriched small quantities of uranium to 20 percent, but makes no assessment of how close it might be to producing a nuclear weapon, which Tehran denies it is seeking to do.

At a briefing at the White House shortly after the agency’s report was released, senior administration officials said they saw continuing evidence that Iran had to struggle just to keep its uranium-enrichment equipment running. Thousands of centrifuges that it installed at Natanz, its main site for enrichment, are not spinning.

The Obama administration said that Iran was producing only 100 grams a day of enriched uranium, and that even if it could quadruple its capacity it would still need several years to make enough for a weapon.

Still, the report cited new evidence, much of it collected in recent weeks, that appeared to paint a picture of a concerted drive in Iran toward a weapons capability. Echoing the Obama administration, the agency described an escalating series of steps by Iran: the enrichment to 20 percent, its acknowledgment of a secret enrichment plant in Qum, its efforts to metalize uranium and its rejection of a deal to enrich its uranium outside the country.

The report also reiterated evidence that Iran appeared to have tested ways of detonating weapons and to have worked extensively to design warheads small enough to fit atop a missile.

One senior administration official, told of the report’s main conclusions, said that he thought the actions described in the document “almost suggest the Iranian military is inviting a confrontation.” In fact, some in the Obama administration suspect that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps or its leading religious leaders are betting that an escalation of the nuclear confrontation might distract attention from the protests that have rocked the government, while unifying the country against outsiders supposedly trying to suppress Iran’s rise as a significant power.

The report buttressed that view by indicating that Iran had moved most of its stockpile of low-enriched uranium into an above-ground storage plant at Natanz, where it is vulnerable to military attack.

“It’s odd, and there is no technical explanation for it,” the senior administration official said at a briefing. “There must be some other explanation.” He and other Obama administration officials declined to speculate why the Iranians would deliberately place their stockpile in a place where, with relatively little effort, Israel or another country could strike it.

The report also indicated that for the first time Iran told inspectors it was preparing to make its uranium into a metallic form — a step that can be explained by some civilian applications, but is widely viewed as necessary for making the core of an atom bomb. The report does not say what explanation the Iranians offered, if any, for the activity, other than general research and development.

Mr. Amano’s attitude toward Iran is being closely watched; some officials were concerned that he would be unwilling to confront the Iranians directly in his first months in office. But as one American official said Thursday, “It’s been clear to us that he recognizes the severity of what’s going on.”

In fact, the report detailed Iran’s past commitments to stop enriching uranium, its decision to go ahead and its refusal to comply with a series of United Nations Security Council resolutions demanding that it halt its work. It also detailed questions Iran has refused to answer about evidence that it may have worked on the difficult problems of developing a warhead small enough to fit on a missile.

“Since August 2008, Iran has declined to discuss the above issues with the agency or to provide any further information and access” to locations and scientists, the report said.

“Altogether,” it said, the accumulated evidence of weapons work and lack of explanatory cooperation “raises concerns about the possible existence in Iran of past or current undisclosed activities related to the development of a nuclear payload for a missile.”

The 2007 intelligence estimate that Iran had ceased work on a weapon was controversial from the beginning. While the intelligence agencies have never renounced that conclusion, several of President Obama’s top national security advisers have said they do not believe the American intelligence estimate. Many in the Bush administration also questioned that conclusion.

A European diplomat who works with the nuclear agency praised the report as tough and more tightly written than some of the more equivocal assessments of the past, under the direction of Mohamed ElBaradei. “It restricts Iran’s ability to spin,” said the diplomat, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “The new language makes it harder for Iran to cherry-pick the report.”

The agency’s report disclosed Iranian work on uranium metal at an institute in Tehran and at Iran’s sprawling atomic center at Isfahan, where it said Iran planned to build several production lines.

The Institute for Science and International Security, a private group in Washington that tracks nuclear proliferation, said in a report on Thursday that the new lines at Isfahan “raise suspicions that Iran could use them to make metal components for weapons.”

In its report, the institute also questioned Iran’s moving most of its stocks of low-enriched uranium into the plant at Natanz, which is doing the high enrichment. The transfer, it said, implied that Iran planned to enrich it all to higher levels and produce “far in excess” of any fuel needed for its stated purpose of fueling a medical reactor in Tehran.

IAEA report: Iran may be developing atom bomb – Haaretz – Israel News.

The U.N. nuclear agency on Thursday expressed concern for the first time that Iran may currently be working on ways to turn enriched uranium into a nuclear warhead, instead of having stopped several years ago. Avi Issacharoff and Amos Harel / Iran in the cross-hairs Its report appears to contradict an assessment by Washington that Tehran suspended such activities in 2003. It appears to jibe with the concerns of several U.S. allies that Iran may never have suspended such work. Advertisement The U.S. assessment itself may be revised and is currently being looked at again by American intelligence agencies. In a report prepared for its 35 board nations, the International Atomic Energy Agency also said that Iran managed to make a minute amount of near 20-percent enriched uranium within days of starting production from lower-enriched material. Higher enrichment puts Iran nearer to the capability of making fissile warhead material, should opt to do so. Iran denies any interest in developing nuclear arms. But the confidential report, made available to The Associated Press, said Iran’s resistance to agency attempts to probe for signs of a nuclear cover-up give rise to concerns about possible military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear program. The language of the report – the first written by Yukiya Amano, who became IAEA head in December – appeared to be more directly critical of Iran’s refusal to cooperate with the IAEA than most previous ones under his predecessor, Mohamed ElBaradei. It strongly suggested that intelligence supplied by the U.S., Israel and other IAEA member states on Iran’s attempts to use the cover of a civilian nuclear program to move toward a weapons program was compelling. The information available to the agency … is broadly consistent and credible in terms of the technical detail, the time frame in which the activities were conducted and the people and organizations involved, said the report, prepared for next month’s IAEA board meeting. Altogether, this raises concerns about the possible existence in Iran of past or current undisclosed activities related to the development of a nuclear payload for a missile, said the report. The Western bid for sanctions Western allies have been working on gaining international support to place another round of stringent sanctions on Iran, after the Islamic country ignored a deadline to halt its uranium enrichment internally, and rather to import it from outside sources. On Wednesday Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said in a television interview that the U.S. is not planning a military strike on Iran over its nuclear program. “Obviously, we don’t want Iran to become a nuclear weapons power, but we are not planning anything other than going for sanctions,” Clinton told Al-Arabiya television. “What we are focusing on is trying to change Iranian behavior, and the international community has been united in trying to send a message to Iran that it is time for it to clarify its intentions,” she said. “We want to try to get the strongest sanctions we can out of the United Nations Security Council…mostly to influence their decision-making,” Clinton added. Iran earlier Wednesday said it will not give up uranium enrichment and the West must get used to an Iran that is a “master of enrichment,” Tehran’s envoy to the UN nuclear watchdog was quoted as saying. Iran was “always ready to talk in a civilized manner,” Ali Asghar Soltanieh said in an interview with New Statesman, a British current affairs magazine. “But the West just has to cope with a strong Iran, a country with thousands of years of civilization, that is now the master of enrichment. I know it is hard for them to digest, but it is the reality,” he said. “Iran will never give up enrichment – at any price. Even the threat of military attack will not stop us,” the Iranian ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency said. Iran says its nuclear program is for electricity generation. Tehran announced this month it had begun work to enrich uranium to a higher grade for a reactor making isotopes for cancer patients, further raising Western concerns that it might build a nuclear bomb. Western powers had offered Iran a fuel swap under which it would have sent much of its low-enriched uranium abroad in return for fuel rods for the medical reactor. The United States is leading a push for the UN Security Council to impose a fourth round of sanctions on Iran over its nuclear work

The Associated Press: Iran vows to stand by Hezbollah against Israel.

By NASSER KARIMI (AP) – 4 hours ago

TEHRAN,Iran — Iran’s president on Thursday said that if the Israelis launch a new war against Lebanon’s Hezbollah, the militant group should retaliate strong enough to “close their case once and for all.”

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s comments, in a conversation with Hezbollah’s leader, were the latest in a heated exchange of rhetoric between Israel and Lebanon and Syria this months in which all sides have been warning the other not to start a war.

Speaking by phone, Ahmadinejad urged Hezbollah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah to prepare his fighters to be able to retaliate strongly against any Israeli attack.

“The preparations should be of the level that, if they (the Israelis) want to repeated the mistakes of the past (by attacking), then their case should be closed once and for all and the region delivered from their evil ways forever,” the Iranian president said, according to the state news agency IRNA.

“The people of Iran will stand by the peoples of Lebanon and the region in this,” he said. Nasrallah dismissed any fears, saying Israeli “threats will lead to nothing.”

Iran is a key supporter of Hezbollah, believed to funnel it weapons and millions of dollars in funding, though Tehran denies arming the Shiite group. Hezbollah, also closely allied to Syria, boasts a heavy arsenal of rockets capable of reaching deep inside Israel.

The past month has seen increased sabre-rattling between Israel and Syria, Hezbollah and Lebanon — though there’s been little apparent cause on the ground for the warnings of new war. Hezbollah and Israel fought a monthlong war in 2006 that wreaked destruction in south Lebanon and parts of Beirut. But since then, Hezbollah has refrained from firing rockets across the border.

In a speech aired nationally in Lebanon this week, Nasrallah vowed that if Israel attacks again, his fighters would retaliate in kind, striking Tel Aviv or Israel’s international airport on the city’s outskirts.

Lebanon’s prime minister also warned of “escalating” Israeli war threats and vowed Lebanon would support Hezbollah in any fight. The prime minister, Saad Hariri, is a pro-U.S. figure and longtime rival of Hezbollah, but the group is now a member of his national unity government.

Earlier in the month, Syria’s president Bashar Assad accused Israel of avoiding peace, and its prime minister warned that if war broke out, Israeli cities would be attacked. Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman replied that if Damascus draws Israel into a war, its army would be defeated and the Syrian regime would collapse.

Copyright © 2010 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

Iran in the cross-hairs – Haaretz – Israel News.

If anyone still had doubts about an imminent conflict with Iran, it was removed this week by the arrival of the U.S. army chief in Israel and the threats from the Iranian president and Hezbollah secretary-general.

Something sinister is in the air.

If the international community’s collision course with Tehran leads to harsh sanctions meant to halt its nuclear program, the spring and summer months will be especially sensitive. It would be impossible to rule out a scenario in which the increasing tension leads to all-out open war. Tehran and Jerusalem regularly exchange threatening messages via various channels, but with Beirut, Gaza and Damascus in the middle, the situation is liable to get out of control.

At a time when Iran is deliberately inflaming the situation, the U.S. is seeking to cool things down. Interestingly and strangely enough, the two rivals seem to have a similar read on Israel’s current role in the drama. Both believe Israel could lose patience and implement its policy of “a leadership gone mad” that former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert took great pride in during the Second Lebanon War and Operation Cast Lead in Gaza. This belief serves as the backdrop for Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s remarks implying that Israel is readying for war (which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has steadfastly denied) and for Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s threats to attack strategic infrastructure in Israel.

The possibility of unleashing Israel’s “bull in a china shop” approach is also behind the recent flurry of visits from senior American officials, including the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Adm. Michael Mullen, and U.S. Vice President Joe Biden, who arrives next week. The visits are intended to explain to the Netanyahu government why an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities is unwanted at the moment ? and also to clarify what Israel seeks in return for sitting quietly and allowing the Obama administration to build an international coalition to impose sanctions on Iran.

Mullen landed here at the beginning of the week – on the hottest day of Israel’s winter – with an unambiguous warning. His visit opened with a brief press conference at the U.S. embassy in Tel Aviv, to which journalists were summoned on short notice, and that was characterized by something of a culture clash. Some of the Israeli journalists showed up in T-shirts, and Mullen seemed a bit surprised by the casual atmosphere and by the strident tone of the questions.

Despite this, he stuck to the message he was sent here to convey: that he is concerned by the “unexpected consequences” of an Israeli attack on Iran. Mullen’s remarks, made in public even before his first meeting with his Israeli hosts, immediately dictated the tone of Israeli media would adopt to cover his visit.

In recent weeks, especially since its announcement that it has begun production of 20-percent-enriched uranium, Iran has not even bothered to claim its nuclear program is intended for peaceful means, as it had in the past. Iran’s true intentions are clear to everyone from Washington to London to Beijing. China, however, is more concerned about its oil supply than the Iranian threat, and sees its refusal to impose sanctions as an effective means of challenging U.S. power.

It’s possible the concern over an Israeli strike has come too soon. Israel will only attack as a last resort. But if Iran continues its enrichment and the U.S. fails to consolidate sanctions, or if the sanctions are ineffective down the line, the military option becomes more relevant. In this case, Israel also has more legitimacy to act in self-defense and cannot be blamed for the failure of diplomacy.

This week, Nasrallah broadcast another message from his bunker and, for the first time, mentioned the “axis of evil.” He warned of a four-pronged attack against Israel by Iran, Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas ? which those parties have avoided outlining explicitly until now in an effort to maintain the appearance of independence. At the same time, Nasrallah presented Hezbollah’s planned response to Israel’s “Dahiya doctrine” (a term used to describe a conventional army targeting civilian infrastructure used by terrorists) by saying his group would destroy Ben-Gurion International Airport and attack Tel Aviv.

Posted by Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff, February 18, 2010

Russia won’t sanction Iran, US urges Israel not to attack.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on Monday resisted pressure from visiting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to join other world powers in imposing “severe and paralyzing” sanctions on Iran.

Netanyahu had hoped to impress upon Medvedev that time has run out for more gentle diplomatic efforts, considering how close Iran is today to producing a nuclear weapon.

Officials in Netanyahu’s entourage who spoke to the Israeli media tried to put a positive spin on the meeting’s outcome, insisting that regardless of a lack of a firm commitment by Medvedev to oppose Iran’s nuclear program, they are sure the Russian leader will ultimately do the right thing.

Netanyahu also brought up Russia’s sale of an advanced anti-aircraft missile system to Iran, after Russian defense officials on Sunday defended providing the Islamic Republic with such a weapon. The S-300 air defense system would make it all the more difficult for Israel to militarily intervene in Iran’s nuclear program, if it becomes necessary.

Meanwhile, visiting US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Mike Mullen told his Israeli hosts that he continues to view a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities as a very bad idea.

Mullen suggested that the consequences of such action would be just as bad as Iran obtaining nuclear weapons.

AP – Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister

Prince Saud al-Faisal delivers a
statement during a joint news conference …

By ROBERT BURNS, AP National Security Writer Robert Burns, Ap National Security Writer – Mon Feb 15, 6:37 pm ET

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia – Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister on Monday expressed doubts about the usefulness of more sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program.

Prince Saud al-Faisal told a news conference in the Saudi capital that the threat posed by Iran’s nuclear ambitions demands a more immediate solution than sanctions. He described sanctions as a long-term solution, and he said the threat is more pressing.

The Saudi minister spoke at a joint appearance with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, who is in the Persian Gulf to shore up support for new sanctions against Iran. The Saudi minister also said efforts supported by the U.S. to rid the Middle East of nuclear weapons must apply to Israel.

“Sanctions are a long-term solution,” the Saudi minister said. “But we see the issue in the shorter term because we are closer to the threat,” referring to Iran. “We need immediate resolution rather than gradual resolution.”

He didn’t identify a preferred short-term resolution.

U.S. officials traveling with Clinton said privately they were uncertain what al-Faisal meant, since the Saudi government has been explicit in its support of sanctions against Iran. They said he appeared to be suggesting that sanctions may not be effective and that other action could be required.

Israel to step up efforts over new sanctions on Iran – Haaretz – Israel News.

Israel will step up its diplomatic activity in the coming weeks, in an effort to persuade the international community to launch a fourth round of United Nations Security Council sanctions against Iran by the end of next month. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, will arrive in Israel today for talks on Iran’s nuclear program, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will travel to Moscow in a bid to convince Russia to support new sanctions on Tehran. Israel and the United States will hold strategic talks on the issue next week, the first such talks since Netanyahu took office. A senior Israeli official said yesterday that the U.S., France, Britain and Germany have been updating Israel continuously on developments at the UN and in major world capitals on drafting new measures against the Islamic Republic. “As far as we know, efforts are being made to reach a decision on sanctions, and to have them approved in the Security Council by mid- to late March,” the official said, adding, “The sanctions are expected to focus on the Revolutionary Guards and bodies linked to the nuclear program, and less on the Iranian population.” Jerusalem and Washington have held several high-level consultations on Iran in recent weeks. Last month U.S. National Security Adviser James Jones visited Israel for talks with Israeli colleagues, and two weeks ago Central Intelligence Agency Director Leon Panetta paid a secret visit to the country. The U.S. officials briefed their counterparts on sanctions the Obama administration intends to levy against Iran, but reportedly asked them to keep a low media profile and to “act responsibly.” Today Mullen will meet his Israeli equivalent, Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi, with whom he reportedly enjoys a close working relationship. Mullen and Ashkenazi met several weeks ago at a NATO summit in Brussels and on several other occasions over the past year, and speak regularly by phone. Mullen will meet with Deputy Chief of Staff Benny Gantz tomorrow, as well as Military Intelligence chief Amos Yadlin and Amir Eshel, head of the army’s Planning and Policy Directorate. Mullen will also meet with Defense Minister Ehud Barak for talks on Iran and on maintaining Israel’s “qualitative edge” over other regional military forces. Russia is the focal point of current international efforts to impose new sanctions on Tehran, a high-ranking Israeli official said, and Netanyahu’s trip to Moscow will be heavily dedicated to the issue. Netanyahu will meet with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev tomorrow and with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin the following day. Russia is believed to support sanctions targeting governmental bodies directly involved in Iran’s nuclear program, but not those aimed at striking the country’s economy as a whole. “If Russia agrees to sanctions, China will find itself alone and may be forced to line up with the Western powers,” the Israeli official said. “That’s why persuading the Russian leadership is so important.” Netanyahu is expected to try to convince Russian leaders to implement “crippling sanctions” against Tehran, and to receive assurances that the Kremlin is committed to freeze its supply of advanced S-300 surface-to-air missiles to Iran. A high-level U.S. delegation will visit Israel next week for strategic talks on Iran and a number of other issues. In contrast to the original plans, talks will not be held between Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman and U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, but will instead be held at the deputy-minister level. The Israeli negotiators will be headed by Deputy Foreign Minister Daniel Ayalon of Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu party. The U.S. team will be led by Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg, and include presidential advisers Dennis Ross and Daniel Shapiro and other National Security Council, Defense Department and CIA officials. Meanwhile, leading U.S. foreign-policy officials will also arrive in the region this week. Deputy Secretary of State Jacob Lew will visit Israel, Jordan, Egypt and the Palestinian Authority, and Under Secretary of State William Burns will travel to Syria and Lebanon.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1149412.html

The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States Military is set to arrive in Israel on Sunday for a meeting with the Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff to discuss the situation in Iran.

U.S. Admiral Mike Mullen will meet with IDF Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi as well as Minister of Defense, Ehud Barak, and other senior IDF commanders to discuss other topics, including joint defense issues between Israel and the U.S. and mutual security concerns.

Admiral Mullen’s meetings follow remarks made by the U.S. on Thursday when they called Iran’s nuclear intentions “anything but peaceful.”

Iran’s nuclear ambitions continue to draw concerns from the United States and European allies who fear Iran is seeking the capability to build nuclear weapons. Iran has rebuffed diplomatic overtures to resolve the issue and is in defiance of UN Security Council demands that it suspend uranium enrichment.

“Should Iran continue down the wrongful course that it’s on there will be consequences,” State Department spokesman Philip J. Crowley said.

In addition to meetings with IDF personnel, Admiral Mullen also requested to meet with members from the IDF rescue delegation to Haiti and hear about their experience with rescue operations and field medical treatment

Jamal Dajani: Iran Opposition Unplugged.

//

Last June, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad proclaimed a “landslide” victory election triggering months of upheaval. Tehran and other cities have seen the largest street protests and rioting since the 1979 Iranian Revolution by supporters of reform candidates alleging voter fraud. For the past several weeks, Iranian opposition groups and various media outlets have been predicting a repeat of this past summer’s events during the 31st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution. The anniversary is the most important day in Iran’s political calendar.

Instead, the opposition turnout was dwarfed by huge crowds at the state-run celebrations in the center of Tehran waving Iranian flags and carrying placards declaring the “US and Britain the brothers of the devil”, and “Down with Israel.”

A triumphant Ahmadinejad declared that Iran was now a “nuclear state” and would soon triple its output of 20% enriched uranium.

“By God’s grace, it was reported that the first consignment of 20 per cent-enriched uranium was produced and put at the disposal of the scientists,” he addressed the cheering crowd who had gathered in Tehran Azadi square to mark the anniversary of the Islamic Revolution.

But as Iranian state-controlled television beamed images of rallies supporting the regime in different cities, several Western and Arab television networks were reporting clashes between protesters and security forces in Tehran, Mashhad, Esfahan, Ahvaz, Shiraz and Tabriz. Opposition news websites alleged that security forces opened fire on anti-government demonstrators north of Revolution Square in Tehran, killing at least one person. A video posted on YouTube showing an Iranian security official pummeling an unarmed demonstrator was rebroadcast on several media outlets without confirming whether the video was shot recently or during the June events.

News quickly spread on Twitter that “opposition leader Mehdi Karroubi was attacked by security forces as he neared the main route of the march in Tehran.” This was tweeted and retweeted hundreds of times. “His youngest son, Ali, was arrested,” another tweet followed.

If one followed the “hashtag” (#IranElection) on Twitter on Thursday, he or she would have had the impression that the “Velvet Revolution” was rekindled. Although this was the wishful thinking of many, it was far from the truth. What went wrong?

Despite weeks of calls to action, the opposition movement failed to derail the holiday’s agenda set by supporters of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The Iranian government had spent weeks co-opting the opposition plans. Dozens of activists and journalists were arrested, along with individuals suspected of using social networking websites to encourage protests against the regime.

Following in the footsteps of China, Google and other internet service providers had been blocked in Iran. SMS messages were interrupted, and internet communication was brought to a halt. Three major international broadcasters operating in the region, the BBC, Deutsche Welle and Voice of America, have recently accused the Iranian regime of “deliberate electronic interference” in their broadcasts.

It seems that the balance in the Iranian uprising is shifting in the regime’s favor. This time Ahmadinejad was prepared… he succeeded in “unplugging” the opposition.

Trend News: Former CIA analyst: Tehran wants nuclear weapons for two key objectives.

U.S, Washington, Feb. 12 / Trend News N.Bogdanova /

Trend News interviewed Clare M. Lopez, Vice President of the Intelligence Summit and a Professor at the Centre for Counterintelligence and Security Studies (CI Centre), where she teaches courses on the Iranian Intelligence Services.

Ms. Lopez is a former CIA analyst, and previously produced Technical Threat Assessments for US Embassies at the State Department.

Trend News: Yesterday Iranian president announced that the country finished producing its first batch of 20-percent enriched uranium. Do you believe the nuclear program influences the internal policy of Iran?

Lopez: Iran’s nuclear weapons program is considered by its clerical rulers to be indispensable for both domestic and foreign policy. Internally, the mullahs believe that acquisition of a deliverable nuclear weapon would encourage national pride, but also convince dissidents and internal opponents that if the entire world could not stop Iran from getting the bomb, then their quest for liberty is also a hopeless one.

Externally, Tehran wants a nuclear weapons capability for two key objectives: geostrategic dominance, including adventuresome aggression, in the Persian Gulf and Middle East region; and, to seize leadership of the international Jihad movement away from the Sunnis. The idea is “Shi’a Rising”, Persian Empire reborn, and Shi’a at the forefront of the Islamic Jihad vs. the Western, non-Muslim world.

Q: Even if Iran finished producing its first batch of 20 percent enriched uranium, do you believe that they have special technologies to use it?

A: It is my conviction that Iran has already developed nuclear warheads and tested them in non-chain reaction, non-fission, trigger device testing, probably in deep underground sites. I don’t think there is any doubt whatsoever that Iran has mastered the full nuclear fuel cycle….moving to 20% enrichment is merely the latest challenge to the impotence of the international community.

Once a nation has mastered enrichment even to 4-5%, moving additional steps beyond that is merely an exercise in the re-calibration of the centrifuges. The hardest technological challenge comes at the beginning, learning how to build and install and calibrate centrifuges and to link them into cascades. Once that is mastered, the rest is actually much easier – also a quicker process to reach Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) at 90% or even Weapons Grade, which is 93% enriched. Finally, we are fools if we think that Natanz and Qom are Iran’s only two nuclear enrichment sites. We have no idea at what stage of enrichment the other clandestine sites are.

Q: Do you think that Iran’s nuclear program will stop under pressure of economic sanctions?

A: No, Iran’s nuclear weapons process will not stop for any reason whatsoever except actual credible threat to the survival of the regime itself. Sanctions are useless.

Q: On the whole, what is the possibility to stop Iran’s nuclear program with discounts? What is the role of US?

A: The only possibility to stop Iran from achieving a deliverable nuclear weapon in the very near future is forcible destruction of their known sites, and/or regime change. Regime change is possible by a number of conceivable methods: internal implosion (the founders of the revolution actually fighting among themselves); internal dissident movement, like the Green opposition, but this has a long, long way to go and is under severe repression; external attack by Israel, the U.S., and/or the international community.

It seems highly unlikely that the U.S. will lift a finger to either support or assist the internal dissidents because the Obama administration wants to preserve what it naively thinks to be a possibility of negotiating a nuclear deal with the mullahs. This will never succeed. The international community, especially the IAEA, UN, and Security Council are essentially impotent, in part because China and Russia do not see it in their national interest to stop Iran right now.

Only Israel retains the ability and will to act. I believe Israel will strike eventually when it perceives that its final red lines have been crossed, or when Iran is about to acquire a game-changing air-defense missile system (like the S-300 from Russia), or when it decides is the best moment to achieve tactical surprise. For Israel, this is an existential question.