The threat from Iran – Martinez – NewsObserver.com.

Dec 9, 2009 2:59 | Updated Dec 9, 2009 4:12

via Military prepares for missiles on Tel Aviv | Israel | Jerusalem Post.

Home Front Command readying for Tel Aviv, Ramat Gan missiles

By YAAKOV KATZ

The IDF Home Front Command is preparing for the possibility that Hamas will fire missiles up to a range of 80 kilometers from the Gaza Strip in the event of a future conflict with Israel, The Jerusalem Post has learned.

Soldiers of the Home Front Command and Magen David Adom medics exercise the rescue of wounded civilians from a building during a simulation drill of a missile attack in Jerusalem. [file]
Photo: Ariel Jerozolimski

The preparations are being carried out on several different levels within the IDF, with a focus on preparing officials of regional councils and municipalities within the range – including Tel Aviv and Ramat Gan – for the possibility of missiles and rockets landing in their communities.

During Operation Cast Lead, which began December 27, 2008, Hamas fired rockets to a range of around 40 km., hitting Ashdod and Yavneh. In late September, Hamas fired a missile with a 60 km. range from the Gaza Strip and into the Mediterranean Sea.

The IDF is also preparing information kits that could be distributed in the affected areas, as well as Home Front Command reserve units that would need to be deployed there in the event of rocket attacks.

The IDF believes that Hamas has obtained Iranian-made Fajr missiles, either the Fajr 3 or Fajr 5. The Fajr 3 is five meters long and can carry a 45-kilogram warhead. To increase the rocket’s range, Hamas has the option of shrinking the warhead to 25 or 30 kilograms, enabling it to strike deeper into Tel Aviv.

This missile is also in Hizbullah hands in Lebanon.

The Fajr 5 is slightly larger – 10 meters long – and has a range of up to 75 km, which could reach Tel Aviv, as well as communities further up the coast. Intelligence assessments are that Hamas smuggled the missiles into the Gaza Strip through tunnels, possibly as separate components.

Iran already supplies Hamas with 122mm Katyusha rockets that are smuggled into Gaza in several pieces and then assembled by Hamas engineers.

DEBKAfile – New unmanned US stealth jet based in Afghanistan gathers data in Iran.

December 8, 2009, 2:07 PM (GMT+02:00)

US stealth jet drone in first photo

US Air Force spokesmen confirmed this week that the hitherto secret unmanned, high-altitude stealth jet, the “Beast of Kandahar,” was present at the big US air base of Bagram, in Afghanistan. Photos of the Beast on the Bagram tarmac – outside its regular base at Kandahar near the Iranian and Pakistani borders – appeared in various Internet sites this week.

Designated RQ-170 Sentinel, it is the first jet drone ever developed for military use. France’s EURO Demonstrator is a similar project which will be ready for test flights only in another two years.

Little is known about the Sentinel, which was manufactured by Lockheed Martin’s Advanced Development Program. USAF spokesmen disclosed only that its new deployment responded to secretary of defense Robert Gates’ request for increased intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance support for combatant commanders in Afghanistan.

According to DEBKAfile‘s military and intelligence sources, Washington had a reason for letting the Beast surface at this time in the form of a published photograph and a note about its ability to fly over the borders of Iran, China, India and Pakistan for collecting “useful data about missile tests, telemetry, signals and multi-spectral intelligence. The disclosure came on the heels of Iran’s big air defense exercise for guarding its nuclear sites which ended in the third week of November; it appears to be a message to Tehran that all its war games, especially in intelligence and electronic warfare, were pointless since its skies are wide open to American drone activity against which Iran has no recourse.

Some of the Web sites, including the veteran Aviation Week, speculate about the Sentinel’s configuration and features from the published image, describing it as “a tailless flying wing design” with sensor pods built into the upper surface of each wing.

Its designation denotes an unarmed drone rather than the armed Predator UAV which has been used to fire missiles at terrorist sites on the Pakistan-Afghan border. But this assumption is open to question in view of the impression of “a deep, fat center-body” which could house a bomb or missile bay.

Furthermore, its is painted medium grey like the Predator or Reaper, rather than the dark gray or overall black that would provide better concealment at high altitudes.

Both these features suggest the mysterious Beast of Kandahar may have secret functions other than pure reconnaissance.

Russia to triple Israeli-made drone fleet.

Israeli-made Drone, known as Hermes 450

Leadership: Iran And The Bad Plan.

Iran And The Bad Plan

December 8, 2009: In late November, Iran conducted a five day exercise to see how well its air and ground forces could defend against an air attack. The results were not what they expected.Israel has been threatening such an attack if Iran does not halt its nuclear weapons development. The Iranian exercise had air and air-defense units go through the motions of dealing with a hostile air strike against Iranian nuclear facilities.

The Iranian generals who organized the exercise were surprised at how uncoordinated and ill prepared their forces were for such an attack. Communications were spotty (due to equipment failures and poor training), and weapons (aircraft and missile systems) did not perform as expected. The Iranians, it appears, were victims of their own propaganda. For years, Iran has been announcing new weapons, that don’t exist. Same thing with new initiatives in training and tactics.

If you go back and look at the many Iranian announcements of newly developed, high tech, weapons, all you find is a photo op for a prototype. Production versions of these weapons rarely show up. Iranians know that, while the clerics and politicians talk a tough game, they rarely do anything. Even Iranian support of Islamic terrorism has been far less effective than the rhetoric. The Iranians have always been cautious, which is one reason Arabs fear them. When the Iranians do make their move, it tends to be decisive. But at the moment, the Iranians have no means to make a decisive move. Their military is mostly myth, having been run down by decades of sanctions, and the disruptions of the 1980s war with Iraq. Their most effective weapon is bluster, and, so far, it appears to be working.

But the Iranians know that nuclear weapons would make their bluff and bluster much more muscular. Even the suspicion that they had nukes would be beneficial. And that appears to be the current plan. And that’s why Israel is planning to attack. And that’s why the Iranians have their work cut out for them.

Netanyahu tells US Teheran is Israel’s biggest problem | Israel | Jerusalem Post.

Israel’s most challenging strategic problem is the Iranian nuclear program, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu told members of the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee Monday, during which he also painted a pessimistic view of the situation along Israel’s northern border.

Iran’s nuclear power plant in Bushehr, southwest of Teheran.
Photo: AP [file]

SLIDESHOW: Israel & Region |  World

“In the last year, two things have happened: Iran has advanced its military nuclear program, and Iran has lost its legitimacy in the eyes of the international community,” Netanyahu told the committee, adding that preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear capabilities was Israel’s “central problem.”

“Our highest interest is in preventing Iran’s [nuclear] armament,” he said.

To that end, Netanyahu added, “there is coordination with America regarding Iran – information and intensive assessment – and diplomatic coordination cannot be ruled out.”

He did, however note that “it is not clear if cooperation by Russia and China against Iran will continue, but at this time, we do have an agreement.”

“The use of the Internet and Twitter against the Iranian regime is a great thing,” said Netanyahu. “In past years, Iran was portrayed as an unpleasant regime, but today there is deep hatred on the part of part of the Iranian nation against the regime. It is trickling out and constitutes a very important resource for the State of Israel.”

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Maj-Gen. Yossi Baidatz, the head of Military Intelligence’s research division, told committee members that Iran has succeeded in enriching 1,800 kg. of uranium, which is “more or less enough for one-and-a-half nuclear bombs.”

Iranian proxy Hizbullah, Netanyahu added, has also increased in its power and influence.

“If before, we related to Hizbullah as a militia on the side, today it has become the real Lebanese army,” he said.

Hizbullah “has supplanted the Lebanese army as the significant force. It is arming itself and organizing itself like a regular army. The Lebanese government and Hizbullah are growing interconnected, and they will share joint responsibility for any attack on Israel,” the prime minister warned.

Baidatz presented the committee with information that tens of thousands of Hizbullah fighters and rockets were deployed both north and south of the Litani River, and noted that the rockets currently deployed threatened the southern parts of Israel as well as the north.

In light of the information, Netanyahu went on to say that UN Resolution 1701, which was formulated following the Second Lebanon War in an attempt to prevent the re-armament of Hizbullah, had “totally collapsed.”

“It did not withstand the test of reality,” he said.

The prime minister drew parallels between the failed resolution and any possible final status agreement regarding the West Bank, asserting that “that is why any future arrangement in Judea and Samaria must be better and withstand the test of reality. Any future entrance of rockets and missiles to Judea and Samaria must be prevented as part of a future agreement. There must be direct oversight by Israel on future security arrangements, something that didn’t happen in Gaza or Lebanon.”

Netanyahu also addressed negotiations with Syria, reiterating that Israel was willing to engage in direct contact with Damascus, but that if a third-party moderator was necessary, that Israel would prefer France over Turkey, the previous choice for mediator.

petroleumworld.

As word spreads of an upcoming Israeli attack on Tehran, the US Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI) confirms that Iran can easily seal off the Strait of Hormuz in the event of war.

According to a September assessment, if the United States or Israel decide to bomb Tehran’s nuclear sites, Iran’s naval modernization and maritime capabilities have reached a point where it can shut down the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 40 percent of the world’s oil supplies pass.

“Given the importance of the Strait, disrupting traffic flow or even threatening to do so may be an effective tool for Iran,” said the intelligence report.

The assessment, which was revealed by Joseph Farah’s G2 Bulletin on Friday, was first posted on the website for the ONI, but abruptly removed after about a week.

It notes that while Iran’s ability to shut down the Strait of Hormuz may be transitory, the impact would undoubtedly have far-reaching consequences for the already-fragile world economy.

“[World economies would suffer] a serious economic impact from a sustain closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to greatly reduced supplies of crude oil, petroleum supplies and (liquefied natural gas),” ONI said.

On the same note, the report adds that not only has Tehran acquired “increasingly sophisticated systems” from China and Russia, but the “modernization” of the Iranian navy is to an extent that would help the government carry out such a closure if need be.

The report was referring to a series of domestic accomplishments by the Iranian navy in maritime capabilities and seafaring technology.

In recent months, Iran has added a new generation of domestic submarines, battleships, frigates, vessels, and high-speed missile boats to its fleet in a bid to protect its territorial waters from foreign threats.

According to the ONI report, Iran’s possession of high-speed missile torpedo capable of 250 knots has especially worried the US Navy as it would render foreign warships, aircraft carriers and other battle group ships vulnerable.

The report comes as Mark Fitzpatrick, a chief proliferation analyst with the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, said that the chances of a full-fledged Israeli military action against Iran are much higher now.

“I am sad to say that Iran’s announcement makes a military attack on the facilities more likely. If so, it will be a more target-rich environment,” Fitzpatrick said.

Israel routinely threatens to bomb Iran’s nuclear sites, arguing that the country’s enrichment activities are an existential threat to Tel Aviv, which ironically is reported to have the Middle East’s sole nuclear arsenal and 200 nuclear warheads at its disposal.

In response, Iran warns that if Israel steps out of line, it will close the strategic Strait of Hormuz to maritime traffic, including the 15 or so supertankers that daily sail through to deliver the world’s oil supplies.

Rear Admiral Haibollah Sayyari, the commander of Iran’s Navy, said in September that the Islamic Republic will stage a stronger presence on the high seas “in a bid to protect the country’s shipping lanes.”

Iranian Naval Forces “are constantly making efforts to have an active role in international waters, in addition to defending the interests of the Islamic Republic,” Sayyari told Fars News.

“Therefore, it has a duty to block routes used by the enemy, should the necessity arise. It is also tasked with clearing waterways” used by Iranian vessels, he added.

Iranian exercises reveal flaws in air defence system.

By Lauren Gelfand and Georg Mader

07 December 2009

Iran’s recent series of air and missile defence exercises have revealed serious flaws in the capabilities of the Islamic Republic to defend its nuclear installations from attack, international experts have told Jane’s .

The three-phase exercises that ran from 22-27 November were hailed as proof that it would be “impossible for enemy jets to enter [Iranian] territory” by their co-ordinator, Brigadier General Ahmad Mighani, commander of the air force.

This positive spin would seem to obscure some of the critical shortcomings of Iran’s ground-based air-defence systems, the age and technical deficiencies of which were clearly visible in photographs released by Iranian state media during and after the tests. Aside from the Russian-made Tor-M1 (SA-15) air-defence system, the entire assembly of Iranian equipment would prove no match for the sophisticated air fleets and electronic warfare systems operated by Israel or the United States, analysts have concluded.

A first-ever test in semi-combat conditions of two important, indigenously manufactured systems reportedly produced a marked operational failure, thereby allowing the attacking aircraft to penetrate the country’s defensive shield, according to analysts who spoke to Jane’s .

American Thinker Blog: Gaming Iran scenarios; a Kobayashi Maru test?.

Rick Moran
David Ignatius is one of the most respected Middle East hands in the press corps. He has  worked in many countries in the region and has, in my opinion, usually a realistic outlook on what American interests are.

Ignatius was allowed to observe an exercise at Harvard involving some former heavy hitters at state and the White House that gamed out various Iran scenarios that are likely to occur over the next few months and what he saw didn’t encourage him.

Writing in the Washington Post, Ignatius was trying to keep score:

My scorecard had Team Iran as the winner and Team America as the loser. The U.S. team — unable to stop the Iranian nuclear program and unwilling to go to war — concluded the game by embracing a strategy of containment and deterrence. The Iranian team wound up with Russia and China as its diplomatic protectors. And the Israeli team ended in a sharp break with Washington.Mind you, this was just an exercise. But it revealed some important real-life dynamics — and the inability of any diplomatic strategy, so far, to stop the Iranian nuclear push.

The simulation was organized by Graham Allison, the head of the Belfer Center at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government. It was animated by the key players: Nicholas Burns, former undersecretary of state, as President Obama; and Dore Gold, Israel’s former ambassador to the United Nations, as Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. They agreed to let me use their names in this summary.

The gamers framed their strategies realistically: Obama’s America wants to avoid war, which means restraining Israel; Iran wants to continue its nuclear program, even as it dickers over a deal to enrich uranium outside its borders, such as the one floated in Geneva in October; Israel doesn’t trust America to stop Iran and is looking for help from the Gulf Arab countries and Europe.

Is this a “no win” scenario – the famous Star Trek test for cadets named the Kobayashi Maru test? In this case, we lose if Iran gets the bomb. The only victory I could imagine would be some kind of regime change but that is so much the pipe dream it shouldn’t be considered. We also lose if we have a public break with Israel or if we force Russia and China into even a cozier relationship with the mullahs than they have now. All of this is predicated on the notion that Obama will not attack and that he will do everything he can to try and prevent Israel from doing so.

No, Obama will not attack. The Iranians, Russians, and Chinese know this as do our allies. What I found fascinating in this exercise was the open break foreseen between Israel and the US – or, more specifically, Obama and Netanyahu. I have read several analysts who believe that if such a break were to occur, the chances for a general middle east war become better than 50-50. Israel’s enemies may seek to take advantage of our break with the Jewish state while the Israelis may not feel any constraints in trying to solve a few problems that have been confronting them with regard to Syria, Hezb’allah, and the Palestinians.

Ignatius was not optimistic:

What worried me most about this game is what worries me in real life: There is a “fog of diplomacy,” comparable to Clausewitz’s famous fog of war. Players aren’t always clear on what’s really happening; they misread or ignore signals sent by others; they take actions that have unintended and sometimes devastating consequences.The simulated world of December 2010 looks ragged and dangerous. If the real players truly mean to contain Iran and stop it from getting the bomb, they need to avoid the snares that were so evident in the Harvard game.

Sounds like August, 1914 to me but that is almost certainly an oversimplification. The point Ignatius is trying to make is that this scenario has the potential to spin out of control into a  very serious crisis.

And in charge, we have a naive, inexperienced president who is confused about American vital interests and hasn’t a clue what the ramifications of a break with Israel would mean.

ElBaradei warns against Israel attacking Iran.

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Former chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Mohamed ElBaradei