Archive for December 22, 2009

Mubarak flies to Gulf to urgently discuss Iran’s reconciliation move

December 22, 2009

DEBKAfile – Mubarak flies to Gulf to urgently discuss Iran’s reconciliation move.

Mubarak flies to Gulf to urgently discuss Iran’s reconciliation move

DEBKAfile Special Report

December 22, 2009, 7:32 PM (GMT+02:00)

Iranian Speaker in Cairo

Iranian Speaker in Cairo

While Israel was wholly caught up in the next stage of a deal with Hamas for trading its soldier Gilead Shalit for several hundred jailed Palestinians, the Iran-Syrian axis pounced with swift moves to mend its fences with moderate Arab rulers. Sunday, Dec. 20, the powerful Iranian speaker of parliament, Ali Larijani, arrived in Cairo and was received at once by Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak for a conversation lasting two hours.

DEBKAfile‘s Iranian sources report that the Iranian visitor carried with him a wide-ranging proposal to ease the strained relations between Tehran and the moderate Arab governments.

Without wasting a moment, the next day, the Egyptian president flew to Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the Arab emirates to discuss the momentous turn of events.

The octogenarian Mubarak travels very infrequently these days because of his failing health except in extraordinary circumstances. He was galvanized this time by the message Larijani brought from Tehran containing the offer of “a new Iranian approach to resolving outstanding issues.” Iran’s president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has already offered to open an embassy in Cairo for the first time since ties were broken off after Iran’s 1979 Islamic revolution.

Aware that any breakthrough with the Arab governments was contingent on allaying their fears of its nuclear drive, Iran’s offer of a new beginning is reported by our sources as including a form of Iranian-Arab nuclear cooperation. Its immediate objective is to close ranks with the Arab nations in order to outmaneuver the US-Israeli campaign against its nuclear drive, thereby derailing the US president Barack Obama’s plans for drawing Europe, Russian and China into approving another round of harsh sanctions against the Islamic Republic.

The expeditiousness of Mubarak response to Tehran’s overture and the promptness of his Gulf consultations indicated that the bloc of Arab nations, which he and Saudi king Abdullah lead, has given up on effective action by America or Israel, including force, for throwing Iran off its current nuclear course.

Within the region today, coexistence with Iran looks like a safer bet.

If this burgeoning realignment of Middle East partnerships goes forward, the region’s strategic balance will be pulled out of shape, Washington’s influence heavily downgraded and Israel isolated.

Iran and Syria are acting on more than one front. When Lebanese prime minister Saad Hariri visited Damascus over the weekend, he was handed an invitation to visit Tehran soon by Syrian president Bashir Assad.

Furthermore, Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is in Damascus with 10 of his ministers to sign new accords for closer relations. The new Turkish-Syrian pact brings Ankara into Iran’s circle of influence.

In Washington, White House spokesman Robert Gibbs warned that December is a very real deadline ahead of possible new sanctions on Iran and its nuclear program.

The US year-end deadline for accepting a UN-brokered compromise for its nuclear program was quickly brushed off by Ahmadinejad. “They say we have given Iran until the end of the Christian year. Who are they anyway? It is we who have given them an opportunity,” Ahmadinejad said in a speech in the city of Shiraz carried live on state television Monday, Dec. 22.

Top US soldier: We must be ready for force option against Iran

December 22, 2009

DEBKAfile – Top US soldier: We must be ready for force option against Iran.

DEBKAfile Special Report

December 21, 2009, 7:44 PM (GMT+02:00)

Adm. Mike Mullen

Adm. Mike Mullen

In the plainest authoritative US statement yet about military force against Iran, Adm. Mike Mullen, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff said: “My belief remains that political means are the best tools to attain regional security and that military force will have limited results. However, should the president call for military options, we must have them ready. He said this on Monday, Dec. 21in his annual assessment of the nation’s risks and priorities for 2010.

Tehran shows no signs of backing down in the standoff over what is widely believed to be its drive for a nuclear bomb, said the US armed forces chief.

Adm. Mullen added: “Most critically Iran’s internal unrest, unpredictable leadership and sponsorship of terrorism make it a regional and global concern, heightened by its determined pursuit of nuclear weapons.

DEBKAfile‘s Washington sources note that this is the first time any high-ranking American has put the military option squarely on the table. He has done so at the very moment that President Barack Obama’s first deadline for Iran to level on its nuclear operations is running out.

Mullen said nothing about what kind of military force he wants at hand, but any attack would presumably be conducted by air.

Sunday, Adm. Mullen said he was worried about Iran’s intentions and said the clock is running on Obama’s offer of engagement.

Also Monday, the Washington Center for Strategic and International Studies ran an assessment by the commentator Anthony H. Cordesman on America’s options against Iran as “a nuclear weapons power.” He wrote: Iran’s steadily advancing capabilities for asymmetric (DEBKA: WMD including chemical and biological weapons) and proxy warfare still leave it vulnerable to US conventional forces and devastating precision attacks on its military and economic assets.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad says secret nuclear document is a US forgery – Times Online

December 22, 2009

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad says secret nuclear document is a US forgery – Times Online.

President Ahmadinejad has denounced as an American government forgery a secret nuclear document unearthed by The Times, as the top general in the United States warned that military force could not be ruled out against Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Confronted with a copy of the Times document during an interview with ABC’s Diane Sawyer, the Iranian President waved it aside, refusing to look. “No, I don’t want to see this kind of document,” Mr Ahmadinejad said. “These are some fabricated papers issued by the American Government.”

It was the first public comment by the Iranian leader on the two-page document since its existence was revealed a week ago.

Nuclear experts say that the papers, which detail a plan to test a neutron initiator, one of the final components of a nuclear bomb, may be one of the strongest indications yet of a continuing nuclear weapons programme in Iran.

Mr Ahmadinejad refused to address the question of whether Iran had worked on the device, the trigger for a nuclear bomb, dismissing Western claims of a military dimension to the country’s nuclear programme. “I think that some of the claims about our nuclear issue have turned into a repetitive and tasteless joke,” he said.

Tehran insists that its programme is for the production of civilian nuclear energy, despite anomalies, such as its lack of nuclear power stations and the recent revelation of a secret uranium enrichment plant in Qom that inspectors say is inconsistent with the declared civilian programme.

Responding to Mr Ahmadinejad’s accusations of fakery, David Axelrod, the senior White House adviser, said: “Of course, that’s nonsense. Listen, nobody has any illusions about what the intent of the Iranian Government is and we have given them an opportunity to prove otherwise by allowing them to ship their nuclear material out to be reprocessed for peaceful use.

“And they have passed on that deal so far and the international community is going to have to deal with that if they don’t change their minds.”

The revelations in The Times have increased the pressure on Iran to co-operate with the international community days before an end-of-year deadline for Tehran to demonstrate good faith or face new sanctions from the United Nations Security Council or, failing that, a powerful coalition of Western allies.

Western countries are also anxious to stop Israel taking matters into its own hands and launching military strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities that could do little to hamper the overall programme, while bringing further instability to the region.

Israel’s stance has helped to push the Iranian regime and opposition leaders into a ferocious competition over who is more committed to the nuclear programme.

Admiral Mike Mullen, the US Joint Chief of Staff, who has been instrumental in persuading Israel not to strike, told his staff that military force must remain an option against Iran even though it would have only a limited effect in stopping the regime developing nuclear weapons.

“My belief remains that political means are the best tools to attain regional security and that military force will have limited results,” Admiral Mullen wrote in an annual assessment of the nation’s risks and priorities for his staff. “However, should the President call for military options, we must have them ready.”

In the past two or three years the US had all but ruled out an attack on Iran’s known nuclear facilities as too risky because of the potential consequences. UN inspectors and Western intelligence agencies suspect Iran of concealing other, as yet unknown nuclear sites, making an attempt to destroy them all but impossible.

Admiral Mullen and other military leaders have also suggested that if Iran were determined to build a weapon, an attack would probably fail to stop that effort completely.

Experts agree that it is not yet clear whether Iran wants to build a weapon or merely achieve nuclear latency, the ability to assembly a weapon at short notice, in effect giving it a nuclear deterrent.

Israel, Arab countries plan for war with Iran

December 22, 2009

Israel, Arab countries plan for war with Iran.

Secret talks held to discuss how to respond to retaliatory attacks


Posted: December 21, 2009
9:49 pm Eastern

By Aaron Klein
© 2009 WorldNetDaily


Tehran

TEL AVIV – Intelligence officials from Israel, Egypt, Jordan and the U.S. held a meeting last week to discuss specific responses to Iranian retaliatory attacks during a potential war with Tehran, WND has learned.

A senior Egyptian intelligence official told WND the main talks, which took place in Amman, revolved around the possibility of Iranian-directed Palestinian and Islamic attacks against Israel, Egypt and Jordan during a possible future war with Iran.

The official said scenarios discussed revolved only around Iranian retaliatory attacks and did not take into account how any future war with Iran would be initiated or the timing of such a war.

The official said the concern was that Iran would use proxies such as Hamas in the Gaza Strip to attack both Egypt and Israel, while Hezbollah in Lebanon would launch missiles at Israeli population centers, including Tel Aviv.

Also, there is fear militants inside Jordan allied with the Muslim Brotherhood could attack Jordanian interests.

Hamas in Gaza is said to have rockets capable of reaching just outside Tel Aviv, while Hezbollah possesses Iranian-supplied missiles and rockets that can reach most Israeli population centers.

Egypt granted Israel permission several months ago to conduct naval exercises off Egyptian coastal waters. The military drills clearly were aimed at Iran.

Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan, are influenced by Sunni Islam. The Arab countries are threatened by the growing influence of Iran, dominated by Shiite Islam.

In September, Saudi Arabia denied it offered the Israel Air Force permission to fly over its territory to attack Iranian nuclear facilities.

The Arab country was responding to a report in London’s Sunday Express claiming the Saudis had agreed to turn a blind eye and not interfere should Israel and the U.S. attack Iranian nuclear facilities through Saudi air space. The Saudi government called the Express report baseless.

Just before the Express report, WND quoted an Egyptian intelligence official stating Saudi Arabia is cooperating with Israel on the Iranian nuclear issue.

The official said Saudi Arabia is passing intelligence information to Israel related to Iran. He affirmed a report from the Arab media, strongly denied by the Israeli government, that Saudi Arabia has granted Israel overflight permission during any attack against Iran’s nuclear facilities.

The official previously told WND that Prince Saud Al-Faisal, the Saudi foreign minister, has been involved in an intense, behind-the-scenes lobbying effort urging the U.S. and other Western countries to do everything necessary to ensure Iran does not obtain nuclear weapons. Such weapons would threaten Saudi Arabia’s position of influence in the Middle East.

The Egyptian official said his country believes it is not likely Obama will grant Israel permission to attack Iran.

He previously spoke about the efforts of other Arab countries to oppose an Iranian nuclear umbrella but did not comment on Egypt’s own position on the matter.