DEBKAfile – Iran is advancing on dual nuclear bomb track: uranium plus plutonium.

ran is advancing on dual nuclear bomb track: uranium plus plutonium

DEBKAfile Special Report

November 19, 2009, 4:29 PM (GMT+02:00)

DEBKAfile‘s military sources report that the UN inspectors’ October visit to Iran turned up dual-track progress in support of its nuclear weapons program: Feverish activity was registered in the production of plutonium at Isfahan as an alternative to the Fordo enriched uranium plant near Qom which starts up in 2011.

The IAEA experts discovered 30 metric tons-IS of heavy water hidden in 600 tanks, each holding 13 gallons, according to the report they handed in last week to agency headquarters in Vienna.

From the shape of the tanks and other indications, the experts concluded that this stock had not come from the heavy water plant at Arak but was imported.

Metric tons-IS measure the amount of energy a given quantity can release. The force and types of nuclear bombs are gauged in kilotons or megatons. The American nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima in World War II was equal to 20 kilotons of TNT. By this standard, the amount of heavy water discovered at Isfahan would be enough to make at least one plutonium bomb when the plutonium reactor under construction near the Arak heavy water facility is finished.

Other than its civilian uses, heavy water may be used to produce tritium, which intensifies the explosive force of nuclear warheads. The discovery of quantities of heavy water at Isfahan confirms the suspicions surrounding Iran’s nuclear program in three respects.

1. The long concealment of the Fordo site suggested to the UN inspectors that Iran has more hole-in the-corner nuclear facilities in the country. The discovery of a stock of heavy water further confirmed that Tehran is working hard to attain a nuclear weapon capacity on more than one track and at additional covert sites.

2. The IAEA wants to know who is selling Iran heavy water in violation of Security Council resolutions banning the sale or export of nuclear materials to Iran.

The very fact that some government or outside entity is willing to flout UN resolutions demonstrates that any further international sanctions would be ineffective for halting Iran’s nuclear drive, even assuming that President Barack Obama gained Russian and Chinese backing for such penalties. This backing has so far been withheld.

DEBKAfile‘s sources report from Vienna that on November 10, IAEA director Mohamed ElBaradei sent a request to the Iranian Nuclear Energy Committee asking it to confirm the presence of the heavy water and document its origin with a full explanation. Tehran has yet to reply.

3. The presence of the heavy water tanks at Isfahan is additional proof that the reactor at Arak is designed for military purposes, not a peaceful installation as Tehran claims.

DEBKAfile – Jordanian forces pitch in to help Saudis expel Yemeni rebels.

Jordanian forces pitch in to help Saudis expel Yemeni rebels

From DEBKA-Net-Weekly 422 Exclusive

November 24, 2009, 11:17 PM (GMT+02:00)

Jordanian elite force faces Iran-backed Yemeni rebels

In response to an appeal from the Saudi King Abdullah, the Jordanian monarch this week dispatched his army’s elite Royal Special Force of 2,000 commandoes to help the Saudis drive out the Yemeni Houthi rebels, who invaded the oil kingdom with Iranian support earlier this month. DEBKAfile‘s military sources report that the Jordanian troops are now battling the Yemeni invaders holding onto the Jebel Dukhan sector, which is split between the southern Saudi Jizan region and northern Yemen.

Day after day, Saudi troops backed by artillery, marines, tanks, engineers and air force F-15 and Tornado warplanes, together with the Yemeni army, have been fighting to dislodge the intruders from the rugged mountains which rise 6,600 ft high over a desolate landscape with no roads. They were repeatedly beaten off. The Yemeni rebels have sowed the narrow mountain passes with thousands of improved explosive devices.

In the early hours of their engagement, the Jordanian troops also took dead and wounded. It was their first experience of combat outside the borders of the Hashemite Kingdom since the 1960s, certainly the first time they had encountered Iranian-backed fighters.

DEBKA-Net-Weekly disclosed that Hashemite King Abdullah II sent this crack troops across in response to an urgent phone call Saudi King Abdullah put through on Nov. 16, appealing for Jordanian military back-up to support the Saudi effort to purge its southern border of the Yemeni rebel intrusion. An broader inter-Arab dimension was thus added to the Yemeni civil war.

‘Even if they escape our sophisticated defense system, they will never see their bases again; because our surface-to-surface missiles are on their marks to target Israeli military bases before the dust settles.’
Top Military Official

via Military Officials Deliver a Stern warning to Israel.

Tehran, Nov. 24, 09 (Hamsayeh.Net) – Iran’s largest aerial drill aimed at protecting the country’s scattered nuclear installations has entered into its second day with a blunt warning to Tel Aviv that Israeli warplanes ‘will come tumbling down’ if they cross the red line.

Israel has repeatedly threatened to bomb Iran’s nuclear installations. Israel says that Iran’s advancements in the field of nuclear technology pose an existential threat to its very existence.

Tel Aviv has never acknowledged its possession of over 200 nuclear bombs which by all accounts is the most urgent threat for the region and the whole world.

In the course of the ongoing military drill the Commander of he Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force, Amir Ali Hajizadeh warned that Israel will pay a hefty price if it decides to attack the Iranian installations.

’One step out of line and Israeli warplanes will be completely destroyed as Iran will annihilate Israeli F-15 and F-16 jets,’ said the Commander.

“Even if they escape our sophisticated defense system, they will never see their bases again; because our surface-to-surface missiles are on their marks to target Israeli military bases before the dust settles,” he added.

The military drill is codenamed ‘Modafean-e-Aseman-e-Velayat 2 (Defenders of the Velayat’s Skies 2) and it is currently underway over central and western parts of the country.

Iran Is A Hard Nut to Crack for Israel, Even Without Russia’s S-300 Systems – Pravda.Ru.

24.11.2009

Source: Pravda.Ru

URL: http://english.pravda.ru/world/asia/110696-iran_israel-0

Iran has launched five-day Modafean (Defenders) exercises to guarantee protection for the nation’s nuclear objects from a possible attack from Israel or the USA.

Ahmad Migani, the chief of Iran’s Air Defense said that the exercises were launched to improve air defense of Iran’s key cities and the nuclear power plant in Bushehr. The exercises will therefore cover nearly a third of Iran’s territory. The Iranian Army will train its ability to repulse a possible bombing of the nuclear objects of the nation.

“Be sure that in case of any aggression, the Zionists’ F15 and F16 aircrafts will be trapped by our air defense and will be destroyed,” Commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh said.

“And if one of their aircraft manages to escape Iran’s air defense – before it can land – the bases from which these aircraft have taken off will be struck by our destructive ground-to-ground missiles,” the Commander said in a reaction to Israelis growing war rhetoric against Iran’s peaceful nuclear program.

“The Zionists may initiate such a war, but undoubtedly its end will depend on our will,” Hajizadeh noted.

Nevertheless, many military experts say that Iran’s “miraculous” arms may somehow strike neighboring Arab states, merely incidentally.

Iran reportedly plans to test-fire Shihab and Sejil long-range missiles too. The missiles may hit targets within the range of 2 kilometers, which is enough to strike the territory of Israel.

Israeli experts stated that they were not impressed with Iran’s air defense drills because Iran did not have state-of-the-art S-300 missile systems, which Russia refuses to deliver to Iran. As long as the rogue state does not have these complexes, its missile defense system is incapable of causing serious damage to Israeli aviation.

Russia ’s Tor-M1 systems are the most contemporary of Iran’s air defense hardware. Russia delivered 29 of such systems to Iran in 2007.

Military expert Konstantin Sivkov said in an interview with Pravda.Ru that Israel will have to face considerable difficulties if it decides to strike Iran.

“First of all, it is the distance. They will have to refuel their jets in the air twice to cover the distance. Israel does not have the required number of tanker aircraft for that, and the nation will have to ask the United States for help.

“Secondly, Israel will have to take account of Iran’s Tor-M1 systems. Iran also has US-made F-14 jets – about 70 of them in total, but only 30 of them are operable. But this amount of planes will be enough for efficient defense. F-14 jets are very well equipped and can detect targets at a distance of up to 300 kilometers. The range for F-15 and F-16 is lower – 200-250 km, which means that Iranian planes are much better than those of Israel.

“Finally, Israel will have to attack eight nuclear objects in Iran at once, which is hard, of course. They will need to have approximately 60 jets for that, as well as refueling aircraft, reconnaissance aircraft, radar stations and so on. Even if Israel tries hard, it will be able to destroy only three nuclear objects. If Iran eventually receives S-300 systems – all of its nuclear objects will remain unharmed, but Israel will lose up to 40 percent of its jets.

Sergey Balmasov
Vadim Trukhachev
Pravda.Ru

Israel and Germany in agreement on Iran | Headlines News | Jerusalem Post.

While Germany and Israel may not see eye to eye on construction in Gilo, they are in total accord when it comes to Iran. The Iranian issue was without dispute in the discussions between President Shimon Peres and German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle in Jerusalem on Tuesday.

President Shimon Peres and German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle in Jerusalem on Tuesday.

Peres told Westerwelle that it was “unacceptable” for Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to go around calling for the destruction of a country, and Westerwelle in turn told Peres that “it was absolutely clear that nuclear weapons in the hands of the government of Iran is not acceptable.”

This was not only in the interests of the Middle East, he said, but also the whole of the international community.

Peres expressed appreciation for “the clear position” taken by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the German Government, and said of Merkel: “She gained the appreciation of all of us.”

As for the resumption of the Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations, Peres hinted that “we are on the threshold” of new developments, but did not spell out what these were in the presence of reporters.

“We are very close to success or failure” he said, adding “I hope we will turn in the right direction.” The political differences have been minimized, he said, whereas the psychological differences have been maximized. In the present crisis, psychology was a significant consideration he explained, “so we have to be very careful and wise.”

As for European policy concerning the Middle East, Peres said: “We would like to see European policy containing both positive and negative elements. We want it to be positive for peace and negative against terror.”

DEBKAfile – US, Iranian naval Red Sea buildup off Yemen. Debut for Iran’s midget subs.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report

November 23, 2009, 10:58 PM (GMT+02:00)

USS Chosin off Yemen faces Iranian flotilla

The Yemeni conflict is fast evolving from a Houthi insurgency against the Abdullah Salah regime in Sanaa to a broad regional conflagration drawing in Saudi Arabia and Egypt as major players and increasingly the United States, whose involvement is building up into a direct confrontation with the rebels’ sponsor, Iran.

DEBKAfile‘s military and intelligence sources report that over the weekend, the Aegis class cruiser USS Chosin was designated the flagship of Combined Task Force 151 which is patrolling the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea.

Responding to this signal, Iran’s navy commander Adm. Habibollah Sayyari announced Monday, Nov. 23, that Ghadir-class submarines would be joining the four Iranian warships already in position opposite the Yemeni coast. He did not say how many subs were to be deployed.

Our military experts describe the Ghadir as a midget submarine which Tehran claims is silent enough to elude the most advanced US radar. This is the first time those miniature craft will be deployed outside the Persian Gulf and in direct action against the US navy, as well as against Saudi naval craft. Both are blockading Yemeni ports against Iranian arms deliveries to the Yemeni rebels.

US and Israeli naval experts are watching out with great interest for the Iranian midget submarines, which make up the first line of Iran’s coastal defenses and will be making their first operational appearance in foreign waters.

The US and Iran depict the naval buildup in the Red Sea as part of their anti-piracy mission, but our military sources stress that Tehran is determined to bring its arms sealift safely to Yemen’s Red Sea shore for delivery to the Houthi insurgents, while the Americans are equally resolved to help the Saudi navy keep them out.

AFP: US, Israel lack ‘courage’ to attack: Iran leader.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has said the US and Israelis “don’t have the courage” to attack Iran.

AFP) – 4 hours ago

BRASILIA — Visiting Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad said Monday that US and Israeli military threats against Iran were a thing of the past, and that, in any case, “they don’t have the courage” to attack Iran.

“The age of military attacks is over, now we’ve reached the time for dialogue and understanding. Weapons and threats are a thing of the past,” the Iranian told a joint press conference with President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, closing his one-day visit.

Ahmadinejad’s visit was greeted Sunday in Rio de Janeiro by a 1,000-strong rally of members of Jewish, anti-racist and gay rights groups who protested his past tirades against Israel and other groups.

Fielding a question on whether he feared an attack from Israel or the United States, Ahmadinejad said armed confrontation was no longer a possibility.

That’s clear “even for mentally challenged people,” he said with a smile.

Besides, he added, “those you mention (Israel and United States) don’t have the courage to attack Iran. They’re not even thinking about it.”

During the joint press conference, a protester quietly waved a gay-rights banner in the crowd before police escorted him from the venue.

Ahmadinejad met for three hours with Lula to discuss Iran’s controversial nuclear program, over which Lula urged Teheran to find a “just solution” with Western powers.

After his day-long Brazilian leg, Ahmadinejad was to depart for Bolivia for talks with his counterpart Evo Morales, then on to Venezuela to see his “friend,” President Hugo Chavez. Both Morales and Chavez are strongly critical of the United States.

DEBKAfile – Iran tests nuclear site defenses: Stage One a washout.

Iran tests nuclear site defenses: Stage One a washout

DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis

November 23, 2009, 12:00 PM (GMT+02:00)

 

Not equal to defense function

From the word go on Sunday, Nov. 22, Iran’s five-day drill demonstrated that its air force and air defense units were unequal to their mission of keeping the skies over its nuclear sites clear of incoming strike aircraft, DEBKAfile‘s military and Iranian sources report.

This was quickly borne in on Gen. Ahmad Mighani, air force chief and commander of five-day air defense exercise and the officers at the Khatam ol-Anbia air force base, headquarters of the exercise in the southern province of Khuzestan.

The first stage of the three-part war game Sunday and Monday was devoted to preventing hostile bombers from reaching nuclear installations. Iranian Mirage F-1 fighters acted as strike craft while F-5 fighters – old American models and local products – were assigned defensive roles. However, the F-5s broke through Iranian radar systems, overwhelmed the defending craft in dogfights and seized command of the air space over the nuclear sites. In conditions of real war, therefore, Iran’s atomic installations would be destroyed in the first hours of an attack.

To raise the morale of the Iranian units who witnessed the debacle, Gen. Moghani gave them a pep talk before Monday’s drills began. He assured them that even if enemy aircraft were able to knock out the installations while they were bombing Iran.

His words confirmed DEBKAfile‘s report Saturday, Nov. 20, that in the early stages of a war Tehran would focus on destroying Israeli air force, missile and radar facilities at home as well as the US military bases in Israel, rather than its cities.

DEBKAfile – Denied Russian S-300 missiles, Iran cannot protect nuclear sites.

DEBKAfile Special Report

November 22, 2009, 12:24 AM (GMT+02:00)

Russian S-300 – denied

Iran launches its huge Modafean-e (Defenders) Aseman-e-Velayat air defense exercise Sunday, Nov. 22, to protect its nuclear sites, after failing to persuade Russia to deliver the linchpin of its air defenses, S-300 missiles. For two weeks, high-ranking Iranian politicians and generals bombarded Moscow to make good on its contract to supply the key weapon, to no avail. Saturday, Nov. 21, Iran’s air force commander Brig. Gen. Ahmad Mighani spoke at length about the highly sophisticated S-300, without which, DEBKAfile‘s military sources say, Iran has no real defense against US and Israeli aerial or missile strikes against its nuclear installations.

Iran will hold its war games in the western and southern regions, which Iran estimates will be selected by the Americans and Israelis for attack, and cover an area of 600,000 sq. km. Iranian warplanes will simulate enemy jets zooming in to strike.

Our sources report that, aside from the Russian-made Tor-M 1 short-range interceptor, Iran’s air defense systems are outdated and pretty useless against US stealth bombers or the Israeli air force’s electronic jamming instruments. Syria likewise lacked the weapons for stopping Israel attack its North-Korean-made nuclear reactor two years ago. The Iranian air force has nowhere near the capacity to take on US or Israeli air might.

Lacking the crucial S-300, a senior Revolutionary Guards officer was reduced to threatening: “If Israel attacks Iran, Iranian missiles will explode in the heart of Tel Aviv!”

Iranian strategists are trying to make do with four devices:

1. As many nuclear installations as possible are being moved to secret subterranean sites – among them most of the research laboratories working on the development of nuclear weapons and missiles.

2. Bogus installations have been planted not far from genuine plants to mislead assailants.

3. Tehran’s most powerful defense is the deterrent strength of its ballistic missiles and the missiles distributed to its Middle East allies, Syria, the Lebanese Hizballah and the Palestinian Hamas. Therefore, Iran’s first response to attack will not be to attack Israeli population centers as the Revolutionary Guards officer threatened, but to strike the home bases of its air force, missile and radar as well as the Israel-based US military facilities, so that Israeli warplanes will have no facilities to come back to and its missiles are knocked off their launch pads.

4. Iran’s means its air defense war game as a rejoinder for the joint US-Israel Juniper Cobra 10 anti-ballistic exercise which took place for two weeks earlier this month. Iran’s leaders had to make good on their vow not to leave any American or Israeli military step in the region unanswered, although the anti-air exercise will expose the big hole in their defenses. Even if every last anti-air measure and device they possess is deployed, Iran’s nuclear facilities will still be susceptible to attack, be they the uranium enrichment center at Natanz, the Isfahan fuel plants in Isfahan, the facilities in northern Tehran, or the reactors going up in Arak opposite the Straits of Hormuz.

Iran to hold war games to protect nuclear sites – USATODAY.com.

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The drill comes as a top clerical official renewed his threat to target “the heart of Tel Aviv” should Israel attack Iran.

The five-day drill will involve Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guard and the regular army and will cover 230,000 square miles — or about 600,000 square kilometers — of central, western and southern Iran, said air force Gen. Ahmad Mighani.

As Iran has pressed forward with its nuclear program, Israel has repeatedly threatened military action to prevent Tehran from obtaining nuclear weapons. The U.S. also has not ruled out military action should diplomacy fail to resolve the dispute over Iran’s nuclear activities.

Washington and its European allies suspect Iran aims to use a civilian nuclear program as cover to produce weapons, and Iran has effectively rejected a new U.N. proposal aimed at easing those concerns. Tehran denies any intention to make nuclear weapons and says it only wants to generate power.

The defense drill will involve an attack by airplanes representing a hypothetical enemy.

“Reconnaissance enemy planes will violate our air space and try to disrupt electronic and radar systems, identify sensitive facilities, take photos and … attack air defense sites,” Mighani said, according to a state TV report. “And our air defense system will confront the intruding planes.”

A planned key component of Iran’s air defenses, an anti-aircraft missile system from Russia, has yet to be delivered.

Mighani criticized Russia, saying the months-long delay in the S-300 missiles was apparently the result of Israeli pressure, not technical issues, as Moscow claims.

Israel and the United States have opposed the missile deal out of fear Iran could use the system to significantly boost defenses at its nuclear sites — including its main uranium enrichment plant at Natanz.

The representative of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to the Guard, warned Saturday that Iranian missiles will target Tel Aviv should an Israeli missile land in Iran.

“If the enemy want to test its bad luck and fire a missile into Iran, before the dust settles, Iran’s ballistic missiles will target the heart of Tel Aviv,” Mojtaba Zolnour told the official IRNA news agency.

Iran and Israel are archenemies and anti-Israeli stance is a trademark for the hardline Guard. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has since 2005 often predicted demise for the Jewish state.

Israeli military and government officials refused to comment on the planned war games.

Iran restructured its military this year in an effort to improve its air defenses. The changes were seen as part of a broader focus on bolstering the military by Tehran, which has been concerned about the U.S. military’s presence in neighboring Iraq and Afghanistan as well as the Israeli threats to target its nuclear facilities.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ordered a new branch to be split off from the air force this year to deal specifically with threats to the country’s air space. Mighani was appointed to head the unit. The order rearranged the regular military into four branches — the ground force, the navy, the air force and the new air defense force.

Mighani now oversees radar, military intelligence gathering equipment and anti-aircraft missile units.

Copyright 2009 The Associated