WarSclerotic

The National Interest
Iran has achieved the effective status of a nuclear-weapons capable state. No matter what American policy makers want to believe, Iran has built a uranium-enrichment establishment, procured a workable design for a weapon, carried out work to enhance and validate that design, and developed longer-range missile-delivery systems. The revelation of the clandestine Qum enrichment plant strikingly demonstrated that there is more to the Iranian nuclear program than what we knew and what inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency have been able to discover during the past four years.

American policy sounds like a broken record, repeating over and over and over again that more and stricter sanctions will reverse these facts on the ground and Iran will be forced to give up its nuclear ambitions. The fact is, Iran’s nuclear program has progressed considerably beyond where it was when President Bush first uttered what would become a useless policy prescription, and is now at a point where only a severely intrusive on-the-ground inspection regime—at least as tough as the one we carried out from 1991–95 in Iraq—could have any hope of verifying that Iran’s nuclear program has stopped. Do American policy makers not recognize that Iran has cheated for more than twenty years on its nonproliferation promises and continued to refuse full and meaningful cooperation with international inspectors? No one should believe that the Islamic Republic would accept the type of inspections that would be required to provide confidence that it had walked away and surrendered its nuclear ambitions.

And how long will American policy makers insist that harsher sanctions are on the way? There is clear self-deception in the face of the visible evidence that the Chinese and the Russians have no intention of going along with really tough sanctions. If the latest round of talks allow Tehran to drag out discussions—while further enhancing its nuclear capabilities, and any meaningful sanctions continued to be postponed to avoid “poisoning the negotiations”—the consequences will be far greater than once again showing that the United States has misjudged Russia, China and Iran’s real aims. The danger ahead is that Tehran will be so emboldened by the feckless nature of U.S. policy and the duplicity of Moscow and Beijing that it will push its nuclear program further and faster than it otherwise would have, and enter the dangerous arena of actually deploying nuclear weapons.

This is an outcome that threatens neither the United States or Israel, but puts in question the very survival of more than the Islamic Republic of Iran but the survival of the nation of Iran itself. No one should doubt that the most dangerous situation a state can face is to deploy a small, and untested, nuclear force, against a state that has a much larger and more capable, nuclear force and views its survival to be at stake. Iran is embarking on a course where any crisis, destabilizing action or even heated Iranian political rhetoric would place Israel and the United States under considerable pressure to take preemptive military action to destroy Iran’s nuclear capability and its political leadership. Given the potential consequence of failure of such a military action, prudence would demand that the force used be overwhelming and broadly destructive.

The United States needs to speak less about the danger we and our allies would face from a small Iranian nuclear force, and instead speak clearly to Iran about how it risks its own destruction by continuing to rush its atomic program forward. And as we have been so wrong in understanding Iranian intentions and the determination of Russia and China to join us in stopping Tehran, we need to begin the diplomatic and military steps necessary to ensure that all of our friends in the region understand that American military might stands ready to guarantee that Iran will gain no advantage from whatever course it chooses to follow.
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David Kay led the UN inspection after the first Gulf War that uncovered the previously unknown Iraqi nuclear program and, after the most recent Gulf War, led the CIA’s Iraq Survey Group that determined that there had been no Iraqi weapons of mass destruction at the time of the war. He is now a private consultant in Washington, DC. To read his early thoughts on Iran’s nascent nuclear capabilities, follow this link to “Iranian Fallout” from the September/October 2008 issue of The National Interest.

Jerusalem Center Projects and On-Line Publications-Video/Audio Archive-British Colonel Declares “The IDF Did More to Safeguard Civilians Than Any Other Army”

Col. Richard Kemp, Former Commander British Forces in Afghanistan, spoke at the conference, Hamas, the Gaza War, and Accountability under International Law. hosted by the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs. Col. Kemp reviewed the difficulties of any kind of warfare, but emphasized the challenges faced by Israel when fighting a terrorist organization that purposefully rejects and defies international law.

DEBKAfile – Israel may attack Iran after December – Le Canard Enchaine

According to an unconfirmed report in the French Le Canard Enchaine of Wednesday, Oct. 14, Israel is preparing to bomb Iranian nuclear sites and pro-Iranian targets across the Middle East after December 2009. The prestigious satirical weekly reports that the IDF has notified special forces reservists abroad to get ready to return home in November for immediate drafting to the military operation against Iranian nuclear facilities. The weekly further reports Israel has ordered combat rations from a French firm for these reservists to stay on long-term missions far from home.

French military sources said that Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi met secretly in France with US armed forces Chief of Staff Adm. Mike Mullen and French Chief of Staff Gen. Jean-Louis Georgelin, to inform that Israel planned to attack Iran after December, when it became clear that the talks between the six powers and Tehran had failed to produce any benefit.

According to Le Canard Enchaine, Ashkenazi said Israel would not attack Iran by air but rather use ground forces in coordinated operations on several Middle East fronts.

DEBKAfile‘s military sources add that if the information leaked to the newspaper from French joint staffs sources is correct – and not a red herring to disguise the impending attack’s real nature – the IDF may be expected to branch out from Iran’s nuclear facilities to target its allies too, such as Syrian air force and missile batteries, Hizballah bases in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

Le Canard Enchaine is not alone in predicting an Israeli attack on Iran after December. A former Israeli deputy defense minister, Efraim Sneh, commented to US and British media several times in the past week that if the US fails to rally fellow powers’ support for toughened sanctions against Iran by Christmas, Israel will have to attack its nuclear installations. It may be assumed that Sneh was not just guessing on his own initiative.

Another sign of the growing military tensions surrounding the Iranian nuclear program was a phone conversation late Wednesday night between President Barack Obama and French President Nicola Sarkozy. The two discussed Iran. After Hillary Clinton failed to swing Russian leaders round to supporting sanctions, when she visited Moscow Tuesday, DEBKAfile‘s Washington sources report that Obama has decided to work with the French president for efforts to stop Iran’s nuclear program.

Sneh: Israel to Attack Iran if Sanctions Not In Place By Christmas « Yes, But, However?

NEW YORK (YBH.ME) – Former Israeli Deputy Defense Minister Ephraim Sneh  stated in an interview with the UK’s Sunday Times that if sanctions against Iran are not in place by Christmas, Israel may attack Iran on its own.  “If no crippling sanctions are introduced by Christmas, Israel will strike,” he said. “If we are left alone, we will act alone.”

Ephraim Sneh rattles sabre at Iran

Iran’s ambassador to the UN, Mohammad Khazaee, rebuked Mr. Sneh’s comments today in a letter to UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moonin and said that “there is no explanation for Israel’s continuing threats against Tehran.” Mr. Khazaee also stated that “the only threat in the region is Israel’s nuclear arsenal, which remains unsupervised to this day.”

Many nations of the west and Israel have taken a harsh line on Iran’s nuclear ambitions,  peaceful or otherwise.

Recently, Cleric Mojtaba Zolnour, a senior leader of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, claimed that Iran will “blow up the heart of Israel” if attacked by either Israel or the United States.

Hillary Clinton and David Miliband tell Iran: time is running out for nuclear deal – Telegraph

Hillary Clinton, the US secretary of state, turned the spotlight on Iran on Sunday, warning that the “world will not wait indefinitely” for an agreement over its nuclear programme.

Speaking after talks in London with David Miliband, the Foreign Secretary, she welcomed Iran’s agreement earlier this month at to transfer most of its low-enriched uranium to other countries, but added: “It must be followed by action.”

Mrs Clinton said: “The international community will not wait indefinitely for evidence that Iran is willing to live up to its international commitments.”

At the talks in Geneva on Oct 1, Iran agreed in principle to transfer most of its stockpile of low-enriched uranium to Russia and France so that the material could be further enriched and then used in a medical research reactor in Tehran. If so, Iran would lose most of the highly sensitive material that could be used to make a nuclear bomb.

But observers sceptical over whether Tehran’s regime will abide by this deal. Mr Miliband said the talks in Geneva had marked a “constructive beginning”, but added: “There is a long way to go before any of us are convinced that Iran is willing to abide by its international obligations.” The Foreign Secretary urged Iran to take advantage of the opportunity created by President Barack Obama’s offer of a new relationship and said the country “will never have a better opportunity to establish normal relations with the international community”.

Mr Miliband said: “Iran can be treated like a normal country in respect of nuclear issues when it starts behaving like a normal country.”

Mrs Clinton is on a five day tour of Europe, which continues with visits to Belfast and Dublin. After meeting Mr Miliband, she travelled on to Chequers to meet Gordon Brown.

Their talks focused on Afghanistan and Pakistan and the issue of whether to send more Western troops to the region. In an overt criticism of the handling of the Afghan conflict before Mr Obama’s election, Mrs Clinton said: “We have been in office about nine months, we obviously believe the prior eight years were not as effective or as focused as they might have been.”

Iran: Israel’s threats inexplicable – Israel News, Ynetnews

Iran’s ambassador to UN demands Security Council take steps against comments made by Ephraim Sneh, who said Israel would attack Iran if sanctions weren’t in place by Christmas

Dudi Cohen

DEBKAfile – Russia halts TOR-M1, S-300 air, missile defense missiles to Iran

October 11, 2009, 9:07 PM (GMT+02:00)

Russian TOR-M1 anti-air missile

DEBKAfile‘s military sources report that Russia’s abrupt suspension of consignments of advanced Tor-M1 air defense missiles and S-300 anti-missile systems has left Tehran high and dry for effective weapons to defend itself and its nuclear facilities against attacks.

Our Iranian sources disclose that extreme frustration prompted the boasts of Revolutionary Guards Deputy Commander Brig. Gen. Hossein Salami Sunday, Oct. 11, that Tehran’s hi-tech missiles can repel any attack against the country. He spoke in the northern town of Sarri.

Regarding sanctions imposed on the Islamic Republic, he said: “Today, the US is experiencing demise despite its great economic, defensive and military power, but the Islamic Iran has remained abloom amid waves of animosities and blaze of sanctions and the nation’s power and capability are getting stronger every day.”

Salami went on to sing the praises of the Revolutionary Guards, its power and its missile capability for confronting enemy threats. Our Sejil missiles, he said, can repel any threat and attack.

DEBKAfile‘s military sources note that the two-stage solid-fuel Sejil has a range of 2,200 km., is accurate within a 20-meter radius but is after all a ground-to ground missiles which is incapable of repelling missile or air attacks. The IRGC commander was trying to lift plunging morale in his corps and the Iranian military; both know that denied the top-quality Russian air defense missiles, Iran has no shield against an American or Israeli missile or air attack.

According to our Moscow sources, the Russians froze the transfers of anti-missile, anti-air missiles to Iran in the expectation of Saudi Arabia following through on negotiations for the purchase of the latest word in Russian anti-missile hardware, the S-400, which is more advanced than the S-300 system now withheld from Iran. It has never been sold to a foreign government and even the Russian army has only two brigades armed with S-400 batteries. The Saudis insisted on making the transaction contingent on Moscow withholding the S-300 and Tor-M1 from Iran.

DEBKAfile – Israeli Dolphin subs upgraded for missiles, larger fuel capacity

October 4, 2009, 11:21 AM (GMT+02:00)

Upgraded Dolphin submarine

Western naval sources report that Israel’s German-made Dolphin submarines have been heavily modified: its torpedo tubes enlarged to accommodate missiles, new electronics installed and its fuel capacity expanded to keep the vessel at sea for 50 days without refueling. Eight years after receiving the first three Dolphin subs from Germany and two more last month, naval sources rate them the most modern non-nuclear subs in any world navy.

Israel is reported by foreign sources to have equipped the new Dolphin-class subs with Israel-made 1,500-km range cruise missiles carrying 200 kiloton nuclear warheads and 135-kilometer range US-made Harpoon missiles also fitted with nuclear warheads. These missiles, fired through the newly-enlarged 650mm-26-inch tubes, can reach Iranian coastal targets including its nuclear sites as well as naval, port and Revolutionary Guards facilities.

The Dolphins’ expanded fuel tanks enable them to cover distances of up to 10,000 kilometers from their Mediterranean home port (instead of 8,000 kilometers heretofore) and spend more time – up to 50 days – off the Iranian coast.

DEBKAfile‘s military sources note: Their presence outside Israeli waters is a powerful deterrent to any surprise nuclear or conventional attack, endowing Israel with an instantaneous second-strike nuclear capability.

In June, an Israeli Dolphin passed through the Suez Canal for the first time, escorted by Egyptian Navy vessels, relaying a message to Tehran that Cairo would open the waterway to Israeli warships for a short cut to the Persian Gulf (instead of the long way round the Cape of Good Hope) should the controversy over Iran’s nuclear program get out of hand.

On Sept 30, DEBKAfile reported the delivery of the last two Dolphin-class U212 subs Israel ordered from the German HDW shipyards at Kiel, raising its total submarine fleet to five.

For the full story click HERE.

Unlike the first three, the new U212 Dolphins have a fuel cell based on an air-independent propulsion system which enables them to stay under water for more than a week without surfacing. They are also very quiet and hard for Iranian sea hunters to detect.

DEBKAfile – Tehran accuses US in case of missing Iranian nuclear scientist

October 8, 2009, 6:23 PM (GMT+02:00)

Iran’s foreign minister Manouchehr Mottaki charged Wednesday, Oct. 7 that Tehran had “documents that prove US interference” in the disappearance of the nuclear scientist Shahram Amiri during a pilgrimage in Saudi Arabia earlier this year. He spoke after attending an Iranian cabinet meeting. Six days after meeting the six powers on its nuclear program in Geneva, Tehran appears to be preparing a new crisis.

State Department spokesman Ian Kelly denied having any information “on this individual.” Some Saudi sources claimed the scientist asked the kingdom for political asylum but this was denied by Riyadh.

DEBKAfile’s Iranian sources report that Shahram Amiri was a senior member of Tehran University’s nuclear physics department which is directly involved in work on Iran’s second enrichment facility near Qom. Iranian nuclear scientists are forbidden foreign travel except for pilgrimages to Mecca. Then too they travel with groups and watched over by Iranian security personnel. Their passports are held by the group’s head, usually a Revolutionary Guards officer, as a safety guard against defections.

Shahram Amiri went missing without his passport last May, three days after his party arrived in Mecca. His belongings were left in his hotel room. The Saudi authorities deny knowledge of the case.

Our sources add: The fuss the Iranians are making about the scientist’s disappearance indicates he was an important cog in the hidden compartments of Iran’s nuclear program and had plenty to give away to the wrong parties. They fear his disappearance is a repetition of the case of the missing general Alireza Asgari who dropped out of sight in Istanbul in March 2007. Asgari, who was a deputy minister in charge of Iran’s nuclear relations with Syria, also checked in at a hotel, unpacked in his room and vanished. Tehran has always suspected he headed straight for a flight to the United States and is in Washington to this day.

That Mottaki raised the case six months after Amid’s disappearance is a sign that Iran is building up to a crisis with the big powers, especially the United States. It will no doubt climax on or before Oct. 25 when international inspectors are due to visit the suspect nuclear site near Qom.

DEBKAfile – Tehran moves to impose gasoline rationing ready for showdown with US

The Islamic regime in Tehran plans to slash the supply of subsided gasoline to the public by 45 percent and ration individual purchases to 55 liters per month, down from the 100 allowed at present. This announcement Wednesday, Oct. 8, by Iranian oil minister Massoud Mirkazemi was Tehran’s second step ahead of an expected showdown with the West over its nuclear program.

DEBKAfile‘s Iranian sources report: Accusing the US of involvement in the disappearance of an important Iranian nuclear scientist was the first.

The government will have no difficulty in getting the measure through the tame Majlis (Iranian parliament).

Iran imports 40 percent of its gasoline needs because it is short of oil refineries. This shortage is sustained to boost the revenues of the Revolutionary Guards which owns a monopoly on gasoline imports. It has now become a strategic threat to the regime, curtailing fuel supplies for the military in the event of war and undermining Iran’s ability to withstand severe sanctions.

Rationing may also provoke domestic unrest. Only 4.2 million liters of gasoline a day will be released, instead of the current 8 million. This will free up some 60,000 or so barrels a day for the Revolutionary Guards emergency stores. A much smaller cutback in 2007 caused serious riots in major cities; many gas stations and fuel depots were set on fire.

Earlier this week, Iran’s foreign minister Manouchehr Mottaki confronted Washington with a charge of US involvement in the disappearance of a nuclear scientist while on a pilgrimage to Mecca last May.