WarSclerotic

Analysis / Will Iran nuke deal bury chances of Israeli attack? – Haaretz – Israel News.

It’s no surprise the agreement emerging between Iran and the international community is being greeted in Jerusalem with a grain of salt. It is not easy to be weaned off 15 years of suspicions. Not only does Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad not inspire much confidence, the entire Iranian regime has earned a reputation of deceptiveness. It will take a long time for Israel’s intelligence community and decision makers to accept an assessment that in Vienna, the Jewish state was saved.

According to assessments – or perhaps rumors – from Washington this week, an official agreement will be signed this year by U.S. President Barack Obama, or at least Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and Ahmadinejad, scaling back Tehran’s nuclear plans. The International Atomic Energy Agency’s announcement Wednesday that the parties had drafted an agreement sparked a wave of enthusiastic reactions. The Iranians’ final response to the draft is expected Friday. Judging by the past, the Iranians might try to dilute the red lines into pink: A few more minor requests here and there, right before signing, in order to squeeze a slightly more convenient agreement for Tehran.

Precisely because an agreement seems to be at hand, Israel is having trouble joining the “positive thinking.” From the very beginning of the dialogue with Iran, Jerusalem declared it was optimistic. It expressed full confidence that Obama would make Iran accept a reasonable agreement, and if that fell through, that he would initiate harsh sanctions to force Tehran to surrender.

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However, Jerusalem remained deliberately cautious and vague in its initial reactions Wednesday. It is still concerned. The agreement still leaves Iran with a loophole to continue deceiving the world; it could still make measured progress, albeit much more slowly, toward nuclear capability. On the other hand, the agreement would tie Israel’s hands and prevent it, at least in the near future, from winning international legitimacy for a strike on Iran’s nuclear sites.

The second round of dialogue with Iran was held this week. In the first round, in Geneva on October 1, the negotiators drew up an outline – Iran would send 75 percent of its enriched uranium to Russia, and from there it would be taken to France. After being treated, it would be returned to Iran as fuel rods, which could be used for medical research as well – but not nuclear weaponry. This would keep Iran from enriching uranium to the level necessary for producing a bomb.

There is a rush to conclude an agreement. Most Western intelligence services believe that by the end of the year, Iran will have enough enriched uranium to produce one or two bombs. At that point, it will be only a few months away from its first nuclear facility (as opposed to a nuclear warhead that can be fitted to a missile, a process that requires more time). American researcher David Albright, a leading expert on nuclear proliferation, says the compromise would buy the West only limited time, as Iran would need a year to reproduce the 1.2 tons of uranium it is being forced to hand over.

As former National Security Council head Maj. Gen. (res.) Giora Eiland predicted in September, the compromise the United States will probably accept is much less convenient for Israel. The Obama administration, which is facing so many burning issues, will be happy to push the matter off the top of its list and focus on dilemmas such as the U.S. deployment in Afghanistan.

The yet-to-be-signed agreement still has major unknowns. One of the mysteries is the relationship between Ahmadinejad and his patron, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Iranian opposition sources make two points: One is that the West does not realize the full force of the Green Revolution sparked by June’s presidential elections, noting that a year and a half of intensive activity was needed to topple the Shah, in 1979. The second argument is that the president has taken a more ideologically belligerent line than his superior and that a major element of this policy involves obtaining a nuclear bomb.

Obama will surely have to ask himself whether it is desirable to have an agreement that lifts all sanctions on Iran, provides for complete normalization with the West and enhances Ahmadinejad’s domestic standing – while leaving loopholes Iran could use to gradually develop nuclear capability, even if it would have to do so at a slower pace. This is what Israel will try to explain to the United States, but it is hard to say whether the Americans will accept the arguments. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s temporary success in “not being a sucker,” as he put it, postponing the resumption of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations and stalling a freeze on settlement construction, probably did not help generate much sympathy for him in Washington.

Will the agreement bury the chances of an Israeli attack? Theoretically, Netanyahu is bound by his dramatic statements of recent years about not allowing Iran to achieve nuclear capability, especially since he knows the price of a mistake if it turns out the Iranians have managed to fool Obama and produce a bomb. On the other hand, an Israeli strike after an agreement has been reached will not gain even an iota of international support. One must listen to what the American experts say: Israel needs some sort of American consent in order to launch an attack. This would be for various operational reasons related to the bombing itself, as well as the need for backup should Iran retaliate by launching a war. Micronesia’s automatic support in the UN General Assembly will probably not help here.

One could also have hoped for a third development: that the Iranian regime would collapse under a popular uprising. However, the chances of such a development might lessen if, as it seems, the Vienna agreement is perceived as constituting an achievement for Ahmadinejad and the ayatollahs, especially since it would be accompanied by the dropping of sanctions.

That is why Israel and other Western intelligence services will continue to monitor Iranian activities with suspicion, assuming that more lies and deceptions will be uncovered in time. The immediate threat of an Iranian nuclear bomb is being pushed back by at least a year, and 2010 looks somewhat less frightening than it did a few weeks ago. This might lead to a change in the defense establishment’s short-term priorities. The focus might shift from the Israel Defense Forces, which would be responsible for an air strike, to the Mossad, which is responsible for diplomatic efforts to thwart Iran’s ambitions.

The Iranian affair is far from over. The intelligence community, the media commentators, perhaps even the pilots, can rest assured: Iran will probably continue to provide enough work for all.

Iran, Israel attend secret nuclear meet in Cairo – Haaretz – Israel News.

By Yossi Melman and News Agencies
Tags: IAEA, Nuclear Iran

Israeli and Iranian representatives recently took part in a conference in Cairo on nuclear non-proliferation in the Middle East, the Israel Atomic Energy Commission (IAEC) said Thursday, but Tehran said the report on the meeting was untrue.

IAEC Spokeswoman Yael Doron, said, however that “no dialogue or interaction” between the Israeli and Iranian representatives took place at the meeting in Cairo in September. She gave no further details.

Iran however dismissed the report, with the spokesman for the Iranian Atomic Organization (IAO) telling the website of state television that “The reports in this regard are sheer lies and there has been no meeting in Cairo.”
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Ali Shirzdian called the report “a psychological operation to undermine the successful [nuclear] meetings in Geneva [October 1] and Vienna [October 19-21].”

The Egyptian Foreign Ministry confirmed, however, that the non-proliferation conference did indeed take place.

Haaretz learned that Meirav Zafary-Odiz, director of policy and arms control for the Israel Atomic Energy Commission, and Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Iran’s ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), met several times over September 29 and 30 and, together with representatives of other countries, conversed, presented questions and gave replies.

The meeting was held at the Four Seasons Hotel in Cairo under the auspices of the International Commission on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament. Also attending were representatives of the Arab League, Jordan, Egypt, Tunisia, Turkey, Morocco, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, along with European and American officials.

The ICNND was set up by Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, and it is chaired by a former foreign minister of Australia, Gareth Evans, and a former foreign minister of Japan, Yoriko Kawaguchi. Former foreign minister Shlomo Ben-Ami sits on the advisory committee of the organization.

The meetings were held behind closed doors, and all participants committed to complete secrecy, to allow a full and frank discussion. However, the fact of the meeting was leaked by Australian sources to the Australian daily The Age.

The Israel Atomic Energy Commission confirmed that such a meeting did take place but refused to comment.

The exchanges between the Iranian and Israeli representatives took place within three panel sessions, each dealing with one of the issues with which the ICNND is concerned – declaring the Middle East a nuclear-free zone, preventing nuclear proliferation in the region and matters of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. The two did not meet or shake hands outside the sessions. In one of the discussions, Soltanieh directly asked Zafary-Odiz – and eyewitnesses say he spoke in an impassioned voice, “Do you or do you not have nuclear weapons?” Zafary-Odiz smiled, but did not respond.

During the meetings, Zafary-Odiz explained the Israeli policy of being willing, in principle, to discuss the Middle East as a nuclear-free zone. She also detailed Israel’s unique strategic situation, saying regional security must be strengthened, security arrangements must be agreed upon and a peace agreement must be sealed before Israel would feel at liberty to discuss this topic.

Zafary-Odiz said Israel lived in a complex geopolitical reality, noting that in three decades, four countries in the region broke their commitment to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty – Iraq, Iran, Libya and Syria. She said Israel takes a responsible approach to the nuclear issue as a whole, and that the far horizon of its vision did include the possibility of a nuclear-free zone in the Middle East, even if the chances for this were slim.

Soltanieh defended his country’s policy, and said Iran was not striving for nuclear armament and did not endanger Israel. He said Israel did not understand the mentality and ideology of the Tehran regime. He said the regime did not oppose or hate Jews, but was merely politically opposed to Zionism. He said Iran’s growing arsenal of missiles was for defensive, not offensive, purposes.

Israel and Iran have refrained from all direct and indirect diplomatic contact since 1979.

Meanwhile, French Defense Minister Herve Morin said Thursday that the French and Israeli armies regularly swap information on Iran’s nuclear program.

“e have to know what’s going on so we exchange our information,” said Morin, responding to a question on RTL radio Thursday about a reported
Paris meeting two weeks ago between the French, Israeli and U.S. armies.

He did not respond directly to that claim, saying only that France “consults happily with its partners”.

The remarks came a day after a draft agreement in Vienna with Iran, France, Russia and the United States that foresees the export of Iran’s low enriched uranium to Russia for further enrichment to power a Tehran research reactor.

DEBKAfile – Israel postpones at last minute joint Juniper Cobra exercise with US.

October 15, 2009, 8:51 AM (GMT+02:00)

US THAAD ready for exercise

US and Israeli forces were already poised to launch their joint Juniper Cobra strategic missile defense exercise, which takes place every two years, to begin Monday Oct. 12, when at noon an Israeli military spokesman suddenly announced its postponement by one week.

The announcement came three days after Turkey called off its sixth annual international air maneuver when the US and Italy pulled out in protest against the Israeli air force’s last-minute exclusion by Ankara.

It also followed a statement in Tehran by Revolutionary Guards Deputy Commander Brig. Gen. Hossein Salami that Iran’s high-tech Sejil missiles can repel any threat and attack on the country.

Our military sources report that the announcement caught 17 US naval ships fitted with Aegis missiles and ground teams operating THAAD and Patriot missile interceptors already in place – altogether 1,000 personnel. DEBKAfile‘s military sources report: They were to interlock with Israel’s Arrow II and Navy for the biggest joint exercise they have ever held, simulating a multiple-direction missile attack on Israel from Iran, Syria, the Lebanese Hizballah and the Palestinian Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

The American FBX-T radar installed at the Israel’s Air Force base at Nevatim in the Negev was assigned a key role in the practice which was to be overseen by Adm. Mark Fitzgerald, commander of the US. Navy’s Sixth Fleet, and the head of Israel’s air defense arm.

It was not immediately clear whether the highly exceptional week’s postponement of the exercise on the very day it was to begin was a joint US-Israeli decision or one made by Israel for political or perhaps technical reasons. At any rate, it indicates something seriously amiss.

Israel, U.S. begin joint military exercises – CNN.com.

JERUSALEM (CNN) — Israel and the United States commenced what is believed to be their largest ever joint military exercises in missile defense Wednesday.

In an 2005 joint Israeli-U.S. exercise, a Patriot missile is fired from a desert launch site in southern Israel.

The long-planned, two-week air defense exercise has been dubbed Juniper Cobra 10 and will involve participation of 1,000 personnel from the U.S. European Command and the Israeli military, according to a statement from the Israel Defense Forces. It’s the fifth such exercise since 2001.

According to the global security analysis firm Stratfor, the Juniper Cobra drill will be the “largest and most complex bilateral ballistic missile defense exercise” the two countries have conducted together and “will include a series of ballistic missile defense systems that would be used to defend against a hypothetical ballistic missile attack launched from Iran.”

In a news release about the joint air defense exercises, the Israeli military said the drill “is not in response to any world events,” but the maneuvers do come at time of increasing tensions amongst the United States and Israel with Iran over its nuclear program.

Both the American and Israeli governments believe Iran is seeking to develop nuclear weapons, an allegation Tehran has denied.

Stratfor said that despite the fact that the Juniper Cobra exercise has been planned for more than a year the drill “will ratchet up already sky-high tensions between the West and Iran.”

Among the systems expected to be deployed and tested during the drills are the Arrow and Patriot missiles, along with the Theater High Altitude Area Defense and the naval-deployed Aegis missile defense systems.

The IDF statement said, “In the course of the exercise small numbers of U.S. forces from U.S. Army Europe … will be temporarily deployed to a number of locations in Israel in the vicinity of civilian areas.”

FT.com / Middle East – Iran nuclear talks end without a deal.

Negotiations between Iran and three world powers over its nuclear programme broke up in Vienna on Wednesday with western diplomats suggesting that Tehran was almost certain to reject a proposal to reduce significantly its current stockpile of enriched uranium.

After two days of talks in Vienna, Mohamed ElBaradei, the director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, told journalists he had drawn up a draft text on the proposal that must be approved by Iran and the three other states – the US, France and Russia – by Friday. If Tehran does not agree to the proposal, it is likely to be withdrawn.

he draft text states that Iran should reduce its current stockpile of low enriched uranium by about 85 per cent by the end of this year, transferring the fuel to France and Russia. Both those countries, in turn, would give Iran fuel that can be used to create medical isotopes for cancer treatment.

Iran’s delegation chief said the Vienna talks had been constructive but did not say whether the Iranian leadership would embrace the draft accord.

“We are fully cooperating,” said Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Iran’s IAEA ambassador. ”[But] we have to thoroughly study this text and … come back and reflect our opinion and suggestions or comments in order to have an amicable solution at the end of the day.”

Iran had accepted the proposal “in principle” after an earlier meeting on October 1. However, western diplomats said that throughout the two days of talks in Vienna, Iran had repeatedly blocked the suggestion that it should remove the fuel at the speed and in the quantities being demanded by the US and France.

“Iran came to the talks highly resistant to the offer,” a western diplomat told the Financial Times. “Its delegation came up with a series of proposals about how it might transfer less of the fuel than the US and France are proposing or about removing it at a later date or keeping it in Iran.

“They were given lots of opportunities to come back and change their position but refused to do so.”

The same diplomat was pessimistic that Iran would accept the proposal drafted by the IAEA. “They have effectively been rejecting the proposal for the last two days in Vienna,” said the diplomat. “It is very hard to imagine that within 48 hours they will turn round and accept it.”

FT.com / Middle East – Iran nuclear talks end without a deal.

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Negotiations between Iran and three world powers over its nuclear programme broke up in Vienna on Wednesday with western diplomats suggesting that Tehran was almost certain to reject a proposal to reduce significantly its current stockpile of enriched uranium.

After two days of talks in Vienna, Mohamed ElBaradei, the director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, told journalists he had drawn up a draft text on the proposal that must be approved by Iran and the three other states – the US, France and Russia – by Friday. If Tehran does not agree to the proposal, it is likely to be withdrawn.

he draft text states that Iran should reduce its current stockpile of low enriched uranium by about 85 per cent by the end of this year, transferring the fuel to France and Russia. Both those countries, in turn, would give Iran fuel that can be used to create medical isotopes for cancer treatment.

Iran’s delegation chief said the Vienna talks had been constructive but did not say whether the Iranian leadership would embrace the draft accord.

“We are fully cooperating,” said Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Iran’s IAEA ambassador. ”[But] we have to thoroughly study this text and … come back and reflect our opinion and suggestions or comments in order to have an amicable solution at the end of the day.”

Iran had accepted the proposal “in principle” after an earlier meeting on October 1. However, western diplomats said that throughout the two days of talks in Vienna, Iran had repeatedly blocked the suggestion that it should remove the fuel at the speed and in the quantities being demanded by the US and France.

“Iran came to the talks highly resistant to the offer,” a western diplomat told the Financial Times. “Its delegation came up with a series of proposals about how it might transfer less of the fuel than the US and France are proposing or about removing it at a later date or keeping it in Iran.

“They were given lots of opportunities to come back and change their position but refused to do so.”

The same diplomat was pessimistic that Iran would accept the proposal drafted by the IAEA. “They have effectively been rejecting the proposal for the last two days in Vienna,” said the diplomat. “It is very hard to imagine that within 48 hours they will turn round and accept it.”

DEBKAfile – New Iranian missiles for Gaza, Syria tops up Hizballah’s rocket stocks.

October 20, 2009, 11:43 AM (GMT+02:00)

Iran’s Fajr-5 could hit Tel Aviv from Gaza

Iran is making a huge effort to smuggle to the Palestinian Hamas Fajr-5 ground-to-ground rockets that bring Tel Aviv within range of the Gaza Strip. DEBKAfile‘s military sources also disclose that Syria, Iran’s second ally with an Israeli border, has decided to transfer one-third of its missile stockpile to the Hizballah in Lebanon, topping up its arsenal with medium-range rockets that can cover central as well as northern Israel, which was heavily blitzed in the 2006 war.

Israel’s top strategists are studying these massive missile transfers to hostile entities to find answers to a number of key questions:

1. Syria has destined some 250 surface missiles of its stockpile of 800 for Hizballah. Are they Scuds B, C and D whose ranges exceed 800 kilometers, or Iranian-Syrian made projectiles whose range is shorter?

2. Do the transfers mean Iran and its allies are gearing up for a major Middle East conflict in the months ahead, possibly in early 2010?

3. Will Syria hand over to Hizballah some of its chemicals-tipped missiles?

4. Will some batteries be installed atop the mountain ranges running down central Lebanon, together with air defense systems supplied at the same time by Syria?

Israel is particularly concerned by the Lebanese Druze leader Walid Jumblatt’s recent decision to turn coat against the pro-Western camp led by Saad Hariri in favor of deals with Tehran and Damascus.

Incorporated in these under-the-counter deals are secret military clauses which permit Hizballah to deploy its missiles on highlands of his Druze fief. Israel would think twice at least before attacking areas populated by Druze villages.

In the south, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards terrorist arm, the Al Qods Brigades, its bending all its smuggling resources to getting the Fajr-5 missiles into the Gaza Strip, thereby extending Hamas’ rocket range to 75 kilometers and central Israel.

According to our intelligence sources, the rockets are traveling by sea from Iran to Hamas training bases in Sudan, dismantled into 8-10 segments , transported to the northern shores of the Gulf of Suez and unloaded in Sinai. From there the segments move through tunnels into the Gaza Strip.

Military sources wonder what the Netanyahu government is doing to halt the missile stranglehold tightening around Israel. Nothing is apparent as yet.

DEBKAfile – US-Israel drill simulates missile attacks from Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Gaza.

October 21, 2009, 9:12 AM (GMT+02:00)

AEGIS BMD launch

The US and Israel launched Operation Juniper Cobra 10, the biggest missile defense exercise of their regular biennial drills, on Wednesday Oct. 21. Taking part in the two-week drill are 1,000 military personnel on each side. According to US military sources, the exercise which simulates the advanced capabilities of shared air defense systems, sends a message to Tehran that America will support Israel’s defenses in attacks from Iran or its allies in the region.

The great importance Washington attaches to the drill is underscored by the appointment of US Sixth Fleet chief Adm. Mark Fitzgerald as joint commander, especially as it takes place weeks after President Barack Obama scrapped US plans to deploy missile interception systems in Poland and the Czech Republic. They are to be replaced with a missile shield tailored to handle short- and medium-range missiles, which constitute the bulk of Iran’s arsenal and are carried in the first stage by warships.

The American Navy’s AEGIS Ballistic Missile Defense systems and advanced radar are taking part in Juniper Cobra aboard a fleet of 17 US warships docked in Israel’s naval ports for the exercise. American and Israeli radar stations are strung along the Israeli coast to spot dummy missiles launched from sea to test their intercept performance.

On Sept. 16, American Galaxy transports airlifted in batteries of Patriot and THAAD anti-missile systems and military vehicles for the exercise. Israel’s Arrow 2 Theater Ballistic Missile Defense System and Patriot anti-missile missiles are also taking part in the drill.

A senior Israel officer said Tuesday night that the ability of X-band radar technology to detect incoming missiles at a distance of hundreds of kilometers will have its first test. X-band radar was installed last year in a US military compound at the Israeli Air Force Nevatim base in the Negev.

Until the drill ends on Nov. 3, roads running south will be closed at intervals as hardware is moved around in accordance with simulated enemy missile attacks.

‘If Israel strikes Iran, U.S. will likely join’ – Haaretz – Israel News

By Anshel Pfeffer, Haaretz Correspondent and Agencies

The United States would find it difficult not to join an Israeli air strike in the event that Jerusalem decides to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, a former top-ranking U.S. Air Force officer told participants at a conference this weekend organized by a Washington think tank.

Charles F. Wald, former deputy commander of United States European Command, said a military strike on Iran could set back the Islamic Republic’s alleged nuclear weapons program by several years, but cautioned, “I don’t think Israel can do it alone.”

The former commander’s remarks were made at an annual gathering of financial backers of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, who were joined by diplomats, journalists and analysts.
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“They have a fantastic military, but not big enough for weeks or months of attacks – hundreds of sorties per day,” he said.

Wald said that should “our great ally Israel” decide to take military action to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, “pressure will mount for us to stand by Israel.”

He also criticized the U.S. government and military leadership for not devoting enough attention to Iran’s nuclear program in recent years due to their involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Wald was also asked to comment on the suggestion by Jimmy Carter’s former national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski last month that the U.S. shoot down Israeli warplanes if they try to fly over Iraq to attack Iran.

“The chance of that,” Wald said, “is zero – no, less than zero.”

Last month, Wald and two former U.S. senators authored an article calling for U.S. President Barack Obama to begin preparations for implementing a military option against Iran.

The goal of such preparations, they wrote, would be not only to achieve military readiness for such a strike, but to persuade Tehran of the seriousness of the administration’s intentions and convince Israel that it need not act alone.

Also present at the conference was the former head of Israel’s Military Intelligence, General (Ret.) Aharon Ze’evi-Farkash, who agreed that the U.S. Air Force could be far more effective than Israel in striking Iran’s nuclear program: “The U.S. can destroy the nuclear capacity, and the war would not be long,” he said.

He added, however, that Western intelligence may still not know about all of Iran’s nuclear sites.

“The Tehran regime doesn’t seek suicide,” Farkash said. “When they realize we mean business this time, they won’t want to lose their regime.”

DEBKAfile – Two Iranian generals among 31 killed by suicide bomber in southeast province

October 18, 2009, 1:16 PM (GMT+02:00)

Gen. Nur-Ali Shushtari, commander of al Qods foreign terror bases.

Two of the five senior Revolutionary Guards commanders killed by a suicide bomber in Sitan-Baluchistan Sunday, Oct. 18, were identified as Gen. Nur-Ali Shushtari, deputy commander of the IRGC ground forces, and Gen. Mohammad-Zadeh, chief IRGC commander of the province. The suicide bomber detonated his vest as the officers entered a hall in the town of Sarbaz to lead a peace conference between Sunni and Shiite tribal leaders of this predominantly Sunni province.

Iran state TV accused Britain of complicity in the attack Iran state TV accused Britain of complicity in the attack which left at least 31 dead and dozens wounded including 5 senior Iranian commanders.

The loss of top IRGC commanders is a grave blow to the elite corps. DEBKAfile‘s Iranian and counter terror sources report Gen. Shuhstari’s covert position as commander of the Al Qods Brigades’ bases abroad, in such places as Iran and Afghanistan and in support of the Hizballah in Lebanon and the Palestinian Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Al Qods runs the IRGC terrorist campaigns outside Iran.

Shushtari was also Gen. Qassem Suleimeni, the Revolutionary Guards’ chief’s deputy.

The Sunni Jundallah underground, which is strongly opposed to the Shiite government of Iran, appears to be behind the attack. The assassin would have mingled with the officers entering the hall and blowing himself up in their midst – a method used by al Qaeda in Iraq to blow away Sunni tribal leaders working with the US army.

Iran’s state media did not immediately release separate numbers of dead and injured. Parliament speaker Ali Larijani made a special announcement to inform lawmakers of the attack, charging that “Western elements” were behind it.

Our sources describe Jundallah as a Baluchi terrorist group fighting for Baluchi independence of Iran. According to some Western and Iranian sources, it is supported by the Pakistani Inter-Service Intelligence agency and the CIA. In 2007, Jundallah staged a failed assassination attempt on president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Tehran has since pestered Islamabad to rein in the group to no avail.