WarSclerotic

DEBKAfile – Israel postpones at last minute joint Juniper Cobra exercise with US.

October 15, 2009, 8:51 AM (GMT+02:00)

US THAAD ready for exercise

US and Israeli forces were already poised to launch their joint Juniper Cobra strategic missile defense exercise, which takes place every two years, to begin Monday Oct. 12, when at noon an Israeli military spokesman suddenly announced its postponement by one week.

The announcement came three days after Turkey called off its sixth annual international air maneuver when the US and Italy pulled out in protest against the Israeli air force’s last-minute exclusion by Ankara.

It also followed a statement in Tehran by Revolutionary Guards Deputy Commander Brig. Gen. Hossein Salami that Iran’s high-tech Sejil missiles can repel any threat and attack on the country.

Our military sources report that the announcement caught 17 US naval ships fitted with Aegis missiles and ground teams operating THAAD and Patriot missile interceptors already in place – altogether 1,000 personnel. DEBKAfile‘s military sources report: They were to interlock with Israel’s Arrow II and Navy for the biggest joint exercise they have ever held, simulating a multiple-direction missile attack on Israel from Iran, Syria, the Lebanese Hizballah and the Palestinian Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

The American FBX-T radar installed at the Israel’s Air Force base at Nevatim in the Negev was assigned a key role in the practice which was to be overseen by Adm. Mark Fitzgerald, commander of the US. Navy’s Sixth Fleet, and the head of Israel’s air defense arm.

It was not immediately clear whether the highly exceptional week’s postponement of the exercise on the very day it was to begin was a joint US-Israeli decision or one made by Israel for political or perhaps technical reasons. At any rate, it indicates something seriously amiss.

Israel, U.S. begin joint military exercises – CNN.com.

JERUSALEM (CNN) — Israel and the United States commenced what is believed to be their largest ever joint military exercises in missile defense Wednesday.

In an 2005 joint Israeli-U.S. exercise, a Patriot missile is fired from a desert launch site in southern Israel.

The long-planned, two-week air defense exercise has been dubbed Juniper Cobra 10 and will involve participation of 1,000 personnel from the U.S. European Command and the Israeli military, according to a statement from the Israel Defense Forces. It’s the fifth such exercise since 2001.

According to the global security analysis firm Stratfor, the Juniper Cobra drill will be the “largest and most complex bilateral ballistic missile defense exercise” the two countries have conducted together and “will include a series of ballistic missile defense systems that would be used to defend against a hypothetical ballistic missile attack launched from Iran.”

In a news release about the joint air defense exercises, the Israeli military said the drill “is not in response to any world events,” but the maneuvers do come at time of increasing tensions amongst the United States and Israel with Iran over its nuclear program.

Both the American and Israeli governments believe Iran is seeking to develop nuclear weapons, an allegation Tehran has denied.

Stratfor said that despite the fact that the Juniper Cobra exercise has been planned for more than a year the drill “will ratchet up already sky-high tensions between the West and Iran.”

Among the systems expected to be deployed and tested during the drills are the Arrow and Patriot missiles, along with the Theater High Altitude Area Defense and the naval-deployed Aegis missile defense systems.

The IDF statement said, “In the course of the exercise small numbers of U.S. forces from U.S. Army Europe … will be temporarily deployed to a number of locations in Israel in the vicinity of civilian areas.”

FT.com / Middle East – Iran nuclear talks end without a deal.

Negotiations between Iran and three world powers over its nuclear programme broke up in Vienna on Wednesday with western diplomats suggesting that Tehran was almost certain to reject a proposal to reduce significantly its current stockpile of enriched uranium.

After two days of talks in Vienna, Mohamed ElBaradei, the director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, told journalists he had drawn up a draft text on the proposal that must be approved by Iran and the three other states – the US, France and Russia – by Friday. If Tehran does not agree to the proposal, it is likely to be withdrawn.

he draft text states that Iran should reduce its current stockpile of low enriched uranium by about 85 per cent by the end of this year, transferring the fuel to France and Russia. Both those countries, in turn, would give Iran fuel that can be used to create medical isotopes for cancer treatment.

Iran’s delegation chief said the Vienna talks had been constructive but did not say whether the Iranian leadership would embrace the draft accord.

“We are fully cooperating,” said Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Iran’s IAEA ambassador. ”[But] we have to thoroughly study this text and … come back and reflect our opinion and suggestions or comments in order to have an amicable solution at the end of the day.”

Iran had accepted the proposal “in principle” after an earlier meeting on October 1. However, western diplomats said that throughout the two days of talks in Vienna, Iran had repeatedly blocked the suggestion that it should remove the fuel at the speed and in the quantities being demanded by the US and France.

“Iran came to the talks highly resistant to the offer,” a western diplomat told the Financial Times. “Its delegation came up with a series of proposals about how it might transfer less of the fuel than the US and France are proposing or about removing it at a later date or keeping it in Iran.

“They were given lots of opportunities to come back and change their position but refused to do so.”

The same diplomat was pessimistic that Iran would accept the proposal drafted by the IAEA. “They have effectively been rejecting the proposal for the last two days in Vienna,” said the diplomat. “It is very hard to imagine that within 48 hours they will turn round and accept it.”

FT.com / Middle East – Iran nuclear talks end without a deal.

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Negotiations between Iran and three world powers over its nuclear programme broke up in Vienna on Wednesday with western diplomats suggesting that Tehran was almost certain to reject a proposal to reduce significantly its current stockpile of enriched uranium.

After two days of talks in Vienna, Mohamed ElBaradei, the director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, told journalists he had drawn up a draft text on the proposal that must be approved by Iran and the three other states – the US, France and Russia – by Friday. If Tehran does not agree to the proposal, it is likely to be withdrawn.

he draft text states that Iran should reduce its current stockpile of low enriched uranium by about 85 per cent by the end of this year, transferring the fuel to France and Russia. Both those countries, in turn, would give Iran fuel that can be used to create medical isotopes for cancer treatment.

Iran’s delegation chief said the Vienna talks had been constructive but did not say whether the Iranian leadership would embrace the draft accord.

“We are fully cooperating,” said Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Iran’s IAEA ambassador. ”[But] we have to thoroughly study this text and … come back and reflect our opinion and suggestions or comments in order to have an amicable solution at the end of the day.”

Iran had accepted the proposal “in principle” after an earlier meeting on October 1. However, western diplomats said that throughout the two days of talks in Vienna, Iran had repeatedly blocked the suggestion that it should remove the fuel at the speed and in the quantities being demanded by the US and France.

“Iran came to the talks highly resistant to the offer,” a western diplomat told the Financial Times. “Its delegation came up with a series of proposals about how it might transfer less of the fuel than the US and France are proposing or about removing it at a later date or keeping it in Iran.

“They were given lots of opportunities to come back and change their position but refused to do so.”

The same diplomat was pessimistic that Iran would accept the proposal drafted by the IAEA. “They have effectively been rejecting the proposal for the last two days in Vienna,” said the diplomat. “It is very hard to imagine that within 48 hours they will turn round and accept it.”

DEBKAfile – New Iranian missiles for Gaza, Syria tops up Hizballah’s rocket stocks.

October 20, 2009, 11:43 AM (GMT+02:00)

Iran’s Fajr-5 could hit Tel Aviv from Gaza

Iran is making a huge effort to smuggle to the Palestinian Hamas Fajr-5 ground-to-ground rockets that bring Tel Aviv within range of the Gaza Strip. DEBKAfile‘s military sources also disclose that Syria, Iran’s second ally with an Israeli border, has decided to transfer one-third of its missile stockpile to the Hizballah in Lebanon, topping up its arsenal with medium-range rockets that can cover central as well as northern Israel, which was heavily blitzed in the 2006 war.

Israel’s top strategists are studying these massive missile transfers to hostile entities to find answers to a number of key questions:

1. Syria has destined some 250 surface missiles of its stockpile of 800 for Hizballah. Are they Scuds B, C and D whose ranges exceed 800 kilometers, or Iranian-Syrian made projectiles whose range is shorter?

2. Do the transfers mean Iran and its allies are gearing up for a major Middle East conflict in the months ahead, possibly in early 2010?

3. Will Syria hand over to Hizballah some of its chemicals-tipped missiles?

4. Will some batteries be installed atop the mountain ranges running down central Lebanon, together with air defense systems supplied at the same time by Syria?

Israel is particularly concerned by the Lebanese Druze leader Walid Jumblatt’s recent decision to turn coat against the pro-Western camp led by Saad Hariri in favor of deals with Tehran and Damascus.

Incorporated in these under-the-counter deals are secret military clauses which permit Hizballah to deploy its missiles on highlands of his Druze fief. Israel would think twice at least before attacking areas populated by Druze villages.

In the south, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards terrorist arm, the Al Qods Brigades, its bending all its smuggling resources to getting the Fajr-5 missiles into the Gaza Strip, thereby extending Hamas’ rocket range to 75 kilometers and central Israel.

According to our intelligence sources, the rockets are traveling by sea from Iran to Hamas training bases in Sudan, dismantled into 8-10 segments , transported to the northern shores of the Gulf of Suez and unloaded in Sinai. From there the segments move through tunnels into the Gaza Strip.

Military sources wonder what the Netanyahu government is doing to halt the missile stranglehold tightening around Israel. Nothing is apparent as yet.

DEBKAfile – US-Israel drill simulates missile attacks from Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Gaza.

October 21, 2009, 9:12 AM (GMT+02:00)

AEGIS BMD launch

The US and Israel launched Operation Juniper Cobra 10, the biggest missile defense exercise of their regular biennial drills, on Wednesday Oct. 21. Taking part in the two-week drill are 1,000 military personnel on each side. According to US military sources, the exercise which simulates the advanced capabilities of shared air defense systems, sends a message to Tehran that America will support Israel’s defenses in attacks from Iran or its allies in the region.

The great importance Washington attaches to the drill is underscored by the appointment of US Sixth Fleet chief Adm. Mark Fitzgerald as joint commander, especially as it takes place weeks after President Barack Obama scrapped US plans to deploy missile interception systems in Poland and the Czech Republic. They are to be replaced with a missile shield tailored to handle short- and medium-range missiles, which constitute the bulk of Iran’s arsenal and are carried in the first stage by warships.

The American Navy’s AEGIS Ballistic Missile Defense systems and advanced radar are taking part in Juniper Cobra aboard a fleet of 17 US warships docked in Israel’s naval ports for the exercise. American and Israeli radar stations are strung along the Israeli coast to spot dummy missiles launched from sea to test their intercept performance.

On Sept. 16, American Galaxy transports airlifted in batteries of Patriot and THAAD anti-missile systems and military vehicles for the exercise. Israel’s Arrow 2 Theater Ballistic Missile Defense System and Patriot anti-missile missiles are also taking part in the drill.

A senior Israel officer said Tuesday night that the ability of X-band radar technology to detect incoming missiles at a distance of hundreds of kilometers will have its first test. X-band radar was installed last year in a US military compound at the Israeli Air Force Nevatim base in the Negev.

Until the drill ends on Nov. 3, roads running south will be closed at intervals as hardware is moved around in accordance with simulated enemy missile attacks.