U.S. and Israel prepare for military action against Iran.

October 31, 1:28 AMChicago Geopolitics ExaminerMichael Hughes

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Iran’s IAEA ambassador Ali Asghar Soltaniyeh after nuclear negotiations in UN HQ in Vienna.
Herwig Prammer / Reuters

Once again, Iran made a mockery of nuclear containment negotiations, rejecting a proposal from the International Atomic Energy Agency (I.A.E.A.) on Wednesday that was brokered by the United Nations. Iran first stalled for a week, then publicly declared they would cooperate, only to reverse course.

Yet, change might be in the air because, according to STRATFOR global intelligence, the U.S., Israel and other Western allies are taking steps that appear eerily similar to war preparations. These actions include the Administration trying to get authorization to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) which is something that would only happen during a time of war; U.S. and Israel conducting large scale military and ballistic missile exercises; and direct personal messages being delivered from senior U.S. and Israeli officials to Moscow that the military option is on the table as a path to halting Iran’s nuclear program. However, the mystery remains as to whether or not these movements are legitimate threats or simple posturing.

According to the deal designed to curtail Iran’s nuclear ambitions, Iran would transfer a major portion of its stockpile of low-enriched uranium to Russia for further processing. Russia would return the material to Iran in the form of fuel plates which could only be used for fuel research and medical purposes. Iran has ceaselessly asserted that they are developing nuclear capabilities for peaceful applications and this proposal calls their bluff. If what Iran has been saying for years is true, why does the I.A.E.A’s proposal bother them so?

Why? Because they are lying. Quite a few American officials are concerned Iran is trying to run out the clock and continue processing uranium so they can either build a weapon or attain “breakout capacity”, which is the ability to build a nuclear weapon within a few months.

As it stands today, Iran has leverage because of their mutually beneficial business relationship with Russia, who has been unwilling to join the other UN countries in levying stricter sanctions against Iran. The U.S. House of Representatives recently passed the Iran Sanctions Enabling Act, which would make it easier for state and local governments and pension funds to divest from companies assisting Iran’s energy sector. However, without Russia’s cooperation economic sanctions would continue to be inefficacious.

Iran has improved its bargaining position in recent years, and Ahmadinejad gloated about this on Thursday according to Time Magazine:

Iran had managed to shift the debate from whether or not Iran should be allowed to enrich uranium to   measures to safeguard its enriched uranium stockpiles from being used in a weapons program. Ahmadinejad proclaimed that diplomatic achievement when he appeared to endorse the nuclear deal on Thursday. “A few years ago, they said we had to completely stop all our nuclear activities,” he said in a speech broadcast live on state television. “Now they want nuclear cooperation with the Iranian nation.”

But the wheels of war have been churning, and activities currently underway could strengthen the West’s negotiating power.

STRATFOR caught wind that the U.S. government was seeking permission to tap into the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which consists of more than 700 million barrels of crude oil and was designed expressly to keep the country running in the event of a war in an oil-producing region. Interestingly enough, the U.S. is obligated to make reserves available for Israel to purchase in case of an emergency according to the 1975 Second Sinai withdrawal document.

In the Mediterranean, the United States and Israel are conducting their largest and most complex bilateral ballistic missile defense exercises which are primarily intended to counter Iranian missile attacks. One would think this is more than just a coincidence. Israel is already on record as saying that it would launch preemptive strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities if they felt the need. They just need Obama’s approval, and it appears they might be closer than ever to getting a green light from the U.S. to launch said attacks.

Not to mention that U.S. National Security Adviser Gen. James Jones went to Moscow on Wednesday and frankly communicated to the Russians that all options are on the table, including military action, to stop Iran from developing nukes. At the same time, former Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni also went to Moscow to deliver a similar message.

Some would think Iran would have to be insane to keep pushing the envelope. Then again they probably are, considering their President is a man who sternly believes the Holocaust never happened. Yet, Iran is surely not going to ignore all of these signals, and pressure is being put on Russia for them to cooperate in implementing sanctions so that they have teeth. Iran will continue its stall tactics but the U.S. and its allies are readying to apply a full court press.

Iran’s Nuclear Response Creates a Quandary for Obama – TIME.

Iran’s International Atomic Energy Agency ambassador Ali Asghar Soltaniyeh appears after a meeting on the Iranian nuclear issue at Vienna’s UN headquarters.

Herwig Prammer / Reuters

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

October 31, 2009, 1:22 PM (GMT+02:00)

Ahmadinejad plays “same old tricks”

Mounting opposition leaves only two leaders in favor of the UN-brokered plan for Iran to send most of its enriched uranium to Russia and France for further processing: US President Barack Obama and Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu, who Friday praised the proposal “to have Iran withdraw its enriched uranium, or a good portion of it, outside Iran as a positive first step.” He commended the US president’s efforts to deal with Iran’s nuclear program

But Saturday, European leaders struck the opposite note. In Vienna, European officials called the new Iranian ultimatum for a balance between sending uranium abroad and receiving a fresh supply as “unacceptable.”

In Brussels, European leaders began drafting a communiqué expressing “grave concern” over Iran’s nuclear enrichment activities and persistent failure to meet its international obligations.

The “counter-proposal” incorporating this ultimatum, which was conveyed by Iran’s nuclear negotiator to the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna Friday, cancels out the whole point of the plan offered, to reduce the level of uranium stocks usable by Iran for making a nuclear bomb. Tehran also called for more negotiations before Tehran delivered its final response.

Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt, rotating presidency of the European Union, told AP that Iran’s approach of “back-and-forth talks” were reminiscent of its “same old tricks.”

Saturday, president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad issued a veiled warning: “We hope the negotiations continue and evil powers don’t indulge in mischief because the Zionist regime and other domineering powers are unhappy with the talks,” he said in an Iranian state TV interview: “Today, Westerners know that without engaging Iran, they cannot rule the world, because Iran… rules world public opinion.”

Within hours, fellow hardliners in Tehran chipped in: Deputy parliament speaker Aleddin Boroujerdi said the second time this week: “We are completely opposed to the proposals. We have deep mistrust of Westerners.”

Qazem Jalili, a member of the Iranian parliament’s foreign affairs and security committee (who is related to Iran’s nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili) dismissed the world powers’ proposal as “completely out of the question.”

Netanyahu’s words of praise for president Obama when he met Middle East peace envoy George Mitchell Friday followed an informal message from Washington asking Israel’s political, military and intelligence spokesmen to align their conduct and statements on the Iran issue with the UK, France and Germany.

The Israeli prime minister made no reference to Iran’s negative response to the compromise it was offered in the framework of Obama’s engagement policy. Nor did he indicate where this left Israel.

That Iran’s counter-proposal was a resounding “no” to an initiative backed by the world’s powers and the UN was far from clear in secretary of state Hillary Clinton’s tortuous remarks Friday: “We are working to determine exactly what they are willing to do, whether this was an initial response that is an end response or the beginning of getting to where we expect them to end up,” she said, urging: “The process must play out.”

She may be in denial, but Tehran’s rebuff will certainly play out in Obama’s other diplomatic initiatives.

After being badly mauled in Pakistan over US drone attacks on Taliban bastions and US policy in general, Clinton arrives in Jerusalem Saturday, Oct. 31, to administer yet another push for getting Israel-Palestinian peace talks restarted.

When he met her earlier in Abu Dhabi, Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas made it clear that he stood by his precondition for talks: Israel must halt settlement construction on the West Bank and Jerusalem. Netanyahu, whom she meets Saturday night, will probably agree to negotiations without preconditions.

Iran Reverses Itself on Oct. 1 Geneva Concessions | Newsweek International | Newsweek.com.

One Step Forward, Two Steps Back

After Iran agreed to nuclear concessions on Oct. 1, President Obama said it was a “constructive beginning.” But now, U.S. officials and Western diplomats say, Tehran is backtracking. With a year-end deadline approaching to show progress on nuclear talks, the U.S. and its European allies are likelier to call for more sanctions. Tehran’s reversal began, NEWSWEEK has learned, at an Oct. 28 discussion between Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, and Javier Solana, the top Western negotiator, says a European diplomat who was briefed on the internal talks but would speak only on condition of anonymity. Jalili insisted the U.S. and Western powers negotiate from a vague, four-and-a-half-page proposal Tehran submitted Sept. 9 that didn’t raise the topic of Iran’s nuclear program at all (it only generally addressed “security and economic” issues). At the time, the Obama administration called the proposal unacceptable. The diplomat describes it as “a lot of blah-blah,” adding, “They went back on all the clarity that we got.”

DEBKAfile – US and Israel reiterate to Moscow: Military option is on the table.

DEBKAfile Special Report

October 31, 2009, 8:20 PM (GMT+02:00)

 

US Strategic Petroleum Reserve site in Texas

DEBKAfile‘s US intelligence sources report indications of impending war preparations against Iran after Tehran’s rejections of the UN-brokered proposal to ship its enriched uranium overseas for further enrichment. These sources reveal that the administration is seeking congressional authorization to open America’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Furthermore, the US-Israeli joint US-Israel Juniper Cobra ballistic exercise is in full swing. Finally, US and Israel officials have been instructed to warn Moscow that the military option is still on the table if Iran’s nuclear program is not halted by diplomatic means.

The US SPR which contains 727 million barrels of petroleum is only opened in time of war. Under an agreement signed with Israel in 1975, Washington undertakes to supply Israel with its fuel needs for five years in an emergency.

Word of these apparent war preparations appeared Saturday Oct. 31, the day after Iran’s senior nuclear negotiator delivered a counter-proposal to the UN-brokered plan to the IAEA in Vienna which excised its main object, which was to reduce the enriched uranium stocks in hand for Iran to make a nuclear bomb.

The joint US-Israeli military exercise which ends Tuesday, Nov. 3, moved to the Tel Aviv arena last Tuesday with US forces drilling defensive action against a prospective Iranian missile attack or a seaborne strike from the Mediterranean on Israel’s central conurbation.

For the last three days, Moscow has had nothing to say about the Iranian rejection of a plan which would have sent Iranian uranium to Russia for reprocessing, although Tehran previously indicated to the Kremlin that the international plan would sail through. DEBKAfile‘s Moscow sources regard the rebuff as Tehran’s response to the suspension of Russian S-300 missile defense batteries after they had already been packed for delivery to Iran.

DEBKAfile – ElBaradei whitewashes Iran’s negative response to overseas enrichment.

October 29, 2009, 7:37 PM (GMT+02:00)

IAEA head Mohammed ElBaradei

Iran’s ambassador to the IAEA, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Thursday, Oct. 29, submitted Iran’s reply to the IAEA proposal endorsed by world powers providing for Iran to send three-quarters of its low-enriched uranium to Russia and France for conversion into nuclear fuel. Its contents were not released by Tehran or the IAEA director Mohamed ElBaradei. Five hours after he received it, ElBaradei produced a formula for airbrushing its negative content: “Iran has provided an ‘initial response’ to a planned international nuclear fuel deal. More consultations were needed. The Director General is engaged in consultations with the government of Iran as well as all relevant parties, with the hope that agreement on his proposal can be reached soon.”

IAEA director clearly handed Tehran a lifeline by withholding the contents of its response pending further “consultations” – a process Tehran is adept at spinning out forever. He thus helped Iran duck out of the Friday, Oct. 23 for submitting its answer – not once but twice.

DEBKAfile reports that Iran’s reply amounts to one yes and two nos.

The Iranian media reported that Iran would only agree to transfer its enriched uranium overseas in small batches over a period of time. These installments must be replaced by purchases of highly-enriched uranium. This stratagem would defeat the entire purpose of the deal which is to reduce Iran’s stocks of enriched uranium and delay its progress toward a nuclear weapon.

According to DEBKAfile‘s sources, instead of sending three-quarters of its enriched uranium overseas, Tehran is not prepared to ship more than 10 percent in each installment and have it replaced, which means at any given moment, Iran would remain with enough enriched uranium to build a nuclear weapon.

While Mahmoud Ahmadinejad earlier Thursday said his country was “ready to cooperate” with Western powers on a UN-brokered nuclear fuel deal, he stressed it would not give up an iota of its “nuclear rights.” He meant what he said.

Israel’s enemies are wrong – Israel Opinion, Ynetnews.

Don’t count on Goldstone to curb Israel’s response to attacks on Tel Aviv

Alex Fishman

‘The more effective the rocket terror war will be, the less proportional the response would be’ Don’t count on Goldstone to curb Israel’s response to attacks on Tel Aviv Alex Fishman Published: 10.26.09, 10:11 / Israel Opinion // While Sderot sustained rocket attacks for eight years until the military and political conditions “were ripe” for a retaliatory strike in Gaza, Tel Aviv will not sustain such attacks for eight days; not even for eight hours.   In order to put an immediate end to missile attacks on central Israel – regardless of where they originated: Syria, Lebanon, or Gaza – we will see massive retribution that will make Operation Cast Lead appear like a tiny scratch in the Middle East’s violent history. In order to find a defensive solution for Gaza-region residents, Israeli officials wracked their brains for about six years until “the need arouse” and the budget was found for the Iron Dome project, which may prove itself in the next decade. Maybe. Meanwhile, central Israel is already protected by the best anti-missile systems in the world. The Juniper Cobra drill that recently got underway expresses not only America’s diplomatic and military commitment to defend Israel from long-range missiles; it also constitutes an impressive display of cutting edge technologies only possessed by a few states. This includes the American THAAD missiles, which became operation only two years ago and are meant to intercept ballistic missiles at a 200-kilometer range, beyond the atmosphere, as well as exotic long-range radar systems and satellite-based sensors. Yet despite all of the above, the quantity of missiles in the enemy’s arsenal at this time is so great that missiles will be landing in central Israel; this will certainly be the case if we see a surprise attack like we experienced in 1973. There will be attempts to hit strategic sites and crowded population centers. The Syrian missiles and the advanced rockets held by Hezbollah are much more accurate than Hamas’ rockets, not to mention Iran’s capabilities. No time to waste It is doubtful whether all our strategic sites, both military and civilian, are properly reinforced to ensure that our critical systems will not be paralyzed. There is also no solution for civilians in case of direct hits. Secure rooms are meant to protect against shrapnel, not against missiles with huge warheads. Just like what happened around Gaza, residents in central Israel will feel as though they’re taking part in a bingo contest, of an immensely more murderous scope. It is no coincidence that Hamas is making every effort to produce or smuggle rockets with a 70-kilometer range. Bringing such missiles into the Gaza Strip is also one of Iran’s greatest challenges in the region. Israel’s enemies are counting on Goldstone: They will fire missiles at Tel Aviv, and the world will stop Israel from punishing them for deterrence purposes. Yet they’re wrong. Israel would not be able to afford to wait for its ground forces to successfully operate in Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, or any other site in order to curb the fire. Time is a critical element, and a successful ground operation is a matter of days or weeks, which means more casualties and more critical hits sustained by the home front. The hundreds of rockets that will penetrate through the Israeli-American defense systems will require Israel to respond immediately. And here the formula is cruel and simple: The more effective the rocket terror war will be, the less “proportional” the response would be. Under such circumstances, we will see a massive retaliatory blow, from the air and from the ground, targeting various infrastructures and sites and being painful enough to prompt the enemy to hold its fire. If the world expects Israel to only hit military targets and chase every rocket or launching site, it expects Israel to commit suicide. The more painful the blow to the enemy’s critical sites, the greater the chance it will be convinced to hold the fire sooner.

‘US better act before Israel attacks Iran’.

US congressional leader Dan Burton (R-IN) told the powerful House Foreign Affairs Committee on Wednesday that if the US does not get serious about stopping the Iranian nuclear program, it is going to have to deal with a Middle East in flames as the result of a preemptive Israeli strike on the Islamic Republic.

Burton noted that after years of international diplomatic efforts, Iran is still enriching uranium with the expected intention of building a nuclear weapon. This, warned Burton, Israel cannot and will not allow to continue past a certain point.

If Washington does not want the much larger task of calming a Middle East embroiled in war, it should get more serious about the comparatively smaller task of strong-arming the Iranian regime into giving up its nuclear quest, Burton implied.

The congressman’s warning echoed that of French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner on Monday, when he told London’s Daily Telegraph that Israel “will not tolerate an Iranian bomb,” and will eventually attack Iranian nuclear facilities if the international community fails to come up with another solution.

To defend against Iran missiles, US and Israel conduct joint exercises | csmonitor.com.

A member of the US Navy stands aboard the USS Higgins, one of 18 American ships deployed globally with Aegis interceptor systems, during a joint Israeli-US air-defense exercise dubbed ‘Juniper Cobra’ in the northern Israeli city of Haifa on Thursday. Atef Safadi/Reuters

U.S. Destroyer’s Visit to Israel Shows Support, Commander Says – Bloomberg.com.

Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) — The presence in Haifa Bay of the USS Higgins, a Navy destroyer equipped to fire Tomahawk cruise missiles, demonstrates America’s commitment to Israel’s security, its commanding officer said.

“We’re working to keep pace with the threat as the threat evolves,” Commander Carl W. Meuser said today during a tour of the ship, whose Aegis weapon systems feature the most advanced radar-detection capabilities in the U.S. fleet. Meuser didn’t elaborate on the threat, though analysts said the war games that the vessel is taking part in are intended to send a message of solidarity with Israel to Iran.

The vessel is named after U.S. Marine Colonel William R. Higgins, who was captured, tortured and killed two decades ago by Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia. It was deployed for the U.S.- Israeli military exercises that are taking place over three weeks as pressure builds on Iran to stop its uranium-enrichment program.

The Juniper Cobra exercise — the biggest in 10 years of joint maneuvers — is as important in assuring Israelis of U.S. backing as it is in deterring enemy states, said Meuser, 43. Israeli confidence in the U.S. has fallen as President Barack Obama seeks to improve relations with the Arab world while pressing Israel to make concessions to the Palestinians.

“Make no mistake that the key audience for these war games is Iran,” Gerald Steinberg, a Bar-Ilan University political scientist, said in a telephone interview. “The Obama administration also needs to show Israelis that it stands behind them and this serves that purpose too.”

Iranian Nuclear Program

The U.S. and several major allies say that Iran’s nuclear program is a cover for the development of a weapon. The government in Tehran, which doesn’t recognize Israel, denies the allegation and says its work is lawful and intended for civilian purposes such as generating electricity.

The exercise started Oct. 20 and continues for three weeks, drilling more than 1,000 personnel from the Israel and U.S. air, sea and land forces in cooperating against missile threats from neighbors in the Middle East.

While F-16 warplanes from both countries have taken part in maneuvers over the Mediterranean Sea and tank exercises have involved both U.S. and Israeli soldiers, the USS Higgins will not leave its pier, dwarfed by a cruise ship floating alongside it in the northern port city.

“We can go through the entire scenario using our sensors and on-board computers,” Meuser said. “You don’t have to send the ship to sea and burn a lot of fuel to get value out of the exercise.”

The war games come after Turkey canceled a similar exercise that was scheduled to take place earlier this month. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Israel wasn’t welcome because of its war in Gaza 10 months ago, in which more than 1,100 Palestinians were killed. Turkey instead staged a separate set of war games with Syria, an enemy to Israel.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jonathan Ferziger in Tel Aviv at jferziger@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: October 29, 2009 13:23 EDT