For those of you who haven’t been following the details, I’ve put together a one month timeline of the lead in to what I believe is the impending war between Iran and Israel.

1. September 6, 2009 – Report: Missing ship carried arms to Iran

A Russian ship whose disappearance in the English Channel set off an international search was carrying a secret cargo of arms bound for Iran, sources say.

The Sunday Times of London quoted unnamed Israeli and Russian sources as saying that despite assurances from Moscow that the Arctic Sea was carrying only a load of timber when it disappeared on July 24, it was actually being tracked by the Israeli spy agency Mossad because it was hauling advanced S-300 missiles to Iran.

The ship vanished en route from Finland to Algeria and was found off West Africa Aug. 17.

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/2009/09/06/Report-Missing-ship-carried-arms-to-Iran/UPI-64681252266615/

2. September 12, 2009 – ‘Missing’ Netanyahu Made Secret Trip to Russia

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a secret trip to Russia, a deputy prime minister confirmed on Saturday, but declined to give specific information on the mission.

“He was in Russia. It created some controversy about the way it was published in Israel,” Dan Meridor told Reuters while in Geneva for an international conference.

“The content was not discussed in public. Some things are better discussed (privately),” Meridor told Reuters.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,549528,00.html

3.  September 19, 2009 – Israel Finds Strength in Its Missile Defenses – Advanced System Could Alter Strategic Decisions in Region.

ASHKELON, Israel — As it pushes for international action against Iran’s nuclear program, Israel is steadily assembling one of the world’s most advanced missile defense systems, a multi-layered collection of weapons meant to guard against a variety of threats, including the shorter-range Grads used to strike Israeli towns like this one and intercontinental rockets.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/09/18/AR2009091801787.html

4. Sep 21, 2009 – Jerusalem – US ships arrive in Israel ahead of join

US Navy missile ships started arriving in Israel on Sunday ahead of next month’s joint missile defense exercise between the IDF and the American military’s European Command.

Called Juniper Cobra, the exercise will include the Arrow missile defense system as well as three American systems – the THAAD, Aegis and PAC3 – that will all be deployed in Israel for the duration of the exercise.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1253198161404&pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull

5. Sep 21, 2009 – Barak to Gates: Time frame must be set for Iran sanctions

Defense Minister Ehud Barak on Monday met with his US counterpart Robert Gates in Washington, and stressed that there must be a time frame for the sanctions imposed on Teheran.

“The harsh sanctions imposed on Iran must be limited in time. Israel is not taking any option off the table, and means what it is saying,” Barak told Gates.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1253198168577&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

6. September 22, 2009 – US developing bunker-buster bombs

Super bombs are being fast-tracked by the Pentagon for possible use against nuclear programs in North Korea and Iran. So massive, the GBU-57A/B or Massive Ordnance Penetrator or MOP can only be delivered by a B-52 or a B-2A.

The Pentagon is accelerating by three years plans for a super bunker buster, the GBU-57A/B or Massive Ordnance Penetrator or MOP, a powerful new bomb aimed squarely at the underground nuclear facilities of Iran and North Korea. The gargantuan bomb—longer than 11 persons standing shoulder-to-shoulder or more than 20 feet base to nose, weighs 30,000 pounds. Some 18 percent of its total weight is comprised of explosives.

http://www.speroforum.com/a/20570/US-developing-bunkerbuster-bombs

7. September 24, 2009 – UK chief of staff pays quiet visit

For the first time in over a decade, the British chief of defense staff, Air Chief Marshall Sir Jock Stirrup, visited Israel earlier this week for a short meeting with IDF Chief of General Staff Lt.-Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi and other senior officers, The Jerusalem Post has learned.

The British Embassy in Tel Aviv confirmed that Stirrup had visited Israel earlier this week, as well as the Palestinian Authority. Spokeswoman Karen Kaufman refused to reveal additional details of his trip, which was kept under wraps by Israel and the UK.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1253820672885&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

8. Sept. 25. 2009 – PITTSBURGH — Obama, Sarkozy, Brown issue ultimatum over second Iran uranium plant – Haaretz – Israel News

Backed by other world powers, President Barack Obama declared Friday that Iran is speeding down a path to confrontation and demanded that Tehran quickly “come clean” on all nuclear efforts and open a newly revealed secret site for close international inspection. He said he would not rule out military action if the Iranians refuse.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/09/25/obama-iran-has-secret-nuc_n_299556.html

9. September 26, 2009 – Obama, Sarkozy, Brown issue ultimatum over second Iran uranium plant – Haaretz – Israel News

Obama stood with British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and French President Nicolas Sarkozy to accuse Iran of building a secret nuclear fuel plant.

Using harsh diplomatic language, the three leaders issued a strongly worded joint condemnation Friday over the existence of a second Iran uranium enrichment plant, revealed earlier this week by Tehran.

Appearing together to issue a statement ahead of the opening of the G-20 economic summit in Pittsburgh, all three condemned the actions of the Iranian government, and warned that Tehran has a limited deadline to comply with international requirements or face tighter sanctions.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1117043.html

10. September 26, 2009 – U.S. Knew About Site for Years

WASHINGTON — Though President Barack Obama dramatically disclosed the existence of a covert Iranian nuclear enrichment site in front of world leaders Friday, U.S. and some foreign spy services have been watching the site for years.

The underground site near the holy city of Qom is one that the U.S., Britain and France “have followed for a few years,” said a senior administration official. U.S. officials also regularly discuss Iran’s nuclear program with Israeli officials.

http://hpb.online.wsj.com/article/SB125392005480142473.html?mod=wsj_share_facebook

11. September 27, 2009 – Iran Test Fires Short-Range Missiles

TEHRAN — Iran’s powerful Revolutionary Guard said it successfully test-fired short-range missiles Sunday in drills meant to show Tehran is prepared to crush any military threat from another country.

The display of force comes days after the U.S. and its allies warned Iran over a newly revealed nuclear facility it was secretly constructing.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/09/27/iran-test-fires-short-ran_n_301067.html

12. September 26, 2009 – Report: New Iran nuclear facility will be operational soon

Iran’s newly disclosed nuclear fuel facility will soon become operational, an aide to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was quoted as saying on Saturday.

The statement came a day after U.S. President Barack Obama demanded that Iran come clean about its nuclear program or face “sanctions that bite” after the disclosure of the new uranium enrichment plant under construction south of Tehran.

“This new plant, God willing, will soon become operational and will make the enemies blind,” Mohammad Mohammadi-Golpayegani, who heads Khamenei’s office, said, according to the semi-official Fars News Agency.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1117083.html

13. September 26, 2009 – Israel Tells US, Time To Act On Iran

JERUSALEM — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged the U.S. to take action over a newly revealed Iranian nuclear facility in a phone conversation with American lawmakers, an official in his office said Saturday.

Netanyahu spoke with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and a number of unidentified U.S. senators and told them that now is the time to act on Iran. Israel maintains the Islamic republic is seeking nuclear weapons.

“If not now then when?” the official quoted Netanyahu as saying. He spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not allowed to speak with the media.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/09/26/israel-tells-us-time-to-a_n_300962.html

14.  September 27, 2009 – U.S. defense chief: Iran intends to develop nuclear arms

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates has said he believes Iran intends to develop nuclear weapons, after the recent discovery of a secret uranium enrichment facility in the Islamic Republic.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1117320.html

15. September 28, 2009 – Iran tests Shahab 3 missile

Iran has test-fired the surface-to-surface Shahab 3 missile, which defense analysts say could hit Israel and US bases in the Gulf region.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2009/09/200992872918676989.html

16. Western powers condemn Iran tests

Western powers have condemned Iran for test-firing its most advanced long-range missiles, with the White House calling the move “provocative”.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8279616.stm

17. September 28, 2009 – Syrian official invited for talks in Washington

A senior Syrian official has been invited to Washington for talks, a US Embassy official said Monday, in the latest signal of the Obama administration’s efforts to improve relations with a country deemed a state sponsor of terrorism.

The upcoming visit by Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Fayssal Mekdad is the first in about five years and is part of US efforts to improve strained relations with Damascus.

Mekdad, who is currently in New York as part of the Syrian delegation to the UN General Assembly meetings, will fly to Washington on Monday for talks with US government officials on “a range of issues,” the embassy official said.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1253820687826&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

18. October 1, 2009 – French ministers in Moscow amid Iran diplomacy

Published: 10.01.09, 09:07 / Israel News

Iran’s nuclear program was on the agenda at a high-level meeting between Russia and France on security issues. France’s foreign and defense ministers …were meeting in Moscow Thursday with their Russian counterparts and with President Dmitry Medvedev.
The visit was previously scheduled and the agenda was broad. But it coincided with talks in Geneva between Iran and global powers including Russia and France on Tehran’s nuclear program. (AP)

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3783864,00.html

digg Huffpost – Iran Test Fires Short-Range Missiles: State TV stumble reddit del.ico.us // ShareThis

NASSER KARIMI | 09/27/09 09:35 AM |

// Buzz up

In this photo released by the Iranian semi-official Mehr News Agency, Revolutionary Guard’s Zelzal missile is launched in a drill near the city of Qom, 80 miles (130 kilometers) south of Tehran, Iran. Iran said it successfully test-fired short-range missiles during military drills Sunday by the elite Revolutionary Guard, a show of force days after the U.S. warned Tehran over a newly revealed underground nuclear facility it was secretly constructing. (AP Photo / Mehr News Agency, Raouf Mohseni)

TEHRAN — Iran said it successfully test-fired short-range missiles during military drills Sunday by the elite Revolutionary Guard, a show of force days after the U.S. warned Tehran over a newly revealed underground nuclear facility it was secretly constructing.

Gen. Hossein Salami, head of the Revolutionary Guard Air Force, said Iran also tested a multiple missile launcher for the first time. The official English-language Press TV showed pictures of at least two missiles being fired simultaneously and said they were from Sunday’s drill in a central Iran desert. In the clip, men could be heard shouting “Allahu Akbar” as the missiles were launched.

“We are going to respond to any military action in a crushing manner and it doesn’t make any difference which country or regime has launched the aggression,” state media quoted Salami as saying. He said the missiles successfully hit their targets.

The powerful Revolutionary Guard defends Iran’s clerical rulers. It has its own ground, naval and air units and its air force controls the country’s missile program.

The tests came two days after the U.S. and its allies disclosed that Iran had been secretly developing a previously unknown underground uranium enrichment facility and warned the country it must open the nuclear site to international inspection or face harsher international sanctions. The drill was planned before that disclosure.

The newly revealed nuclear site in the arid mountains near the holy city of Qom is believed to be inside a heavily guarded, underground facility belonging to the Revolutionary Guard, according to a document sent by President Barack Obama’s administration to lawmakers.

After the strong condemnations from the U.S. and its allies, Iran said Saturday it will allow U.N. nuclear inspectors to examine the site.

Nuclear experts said the details that have emerged about the site and the fact it was being developed secretly are strong indications that Iran’s nuclear program is not only for peaceful purposes, as the country has long maintained.

By U.S. estimates, Iran is one to five years away from having a nuclear weapons capability, although U.S. intelligence also believes that Iranian leaders have not yet made the decision to build a weapon.

Iran also is developing a longer-range ballistic missile that could carry a nuclear warhead, but the administration said last week that it believes that effort has been slowed. That assessment paved the way for Obama’s decision to shelve the Bush administration’s plan for a missile shield in Europe, which was aimed at defending against Iranian ballistic missiles.

Salami said Iran would test medium-range Shahab-1 and Shahab-2 missiles on Sunday night and a longer-range Shahab-3 missiles on Monday, during drills set to last several days.

Salami said Fateh, Tondar and Zelzal missiles were test fired on Sunday, but did not give specifics on range or other details. All are short-range, surface-to-surface missiles.

He told reporters Iran had reduced the missiles and their ranges and enhanced their speed and precision so they could be used in quick, short-range engagements. He also said they are now able to be launched from positions that are not as easy to hit.

He said the Revolutionary Guards’ current missile tests and military drills are indications of Iran’s resolve to defend its national values and part of a strategy of deterrence and containment of missile threats.

Salami claimed Iran has started “running into difficulties storing so many missiles” with its recent progress on its missile program.

Iran has had the solid-fuel Fateh missile, with a range of 120 miles (193 kilometers), for several years. Fateh means conqueror in Farsi and Arabic. It also has the solid-fueled, Chinese-made CSS 8, also called the Tondar 69, according to the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control, a private group that seeks to stop the spread of weapons of mass destruction. The Tondar, which means thunder, has a range of about 93 miles (150 kilometers.)

State media said the Revolutionary Guard tested a multiple launcher for the first time, designed for the Zelzal missile. Tehran has previously tested the Zelzal – versions of which have ranges of 130-185 miles (210-300 kilometers) – but only single launch.

In July 2006, Israeli military officials said their jets had destroyed a missile in Lebanon named Zelzal, which they said Hezbollah had received from Iran and could reach Tel Aviv. Zelzal means earthquake.

Iran’s last known missile tests were in May when it fired its longest-range solid-fuel missile, Sajjil-2. Tehran said the two-stage surface-to-surface missile has a range of about 1,200 miles (1,900 kilometers) – capable of striking Israel, U.S. Mideast bases and southeastern Europe.

The revelation of Iran’s secret site has given greater urgency to a key meeting on Thursday in Geneva between Iran and six major powers trying to stop its suspected nuclear weapons program.

The U.S. and its partners plan to tell Tehran at the meeting that it must provide “unfettered access” for the International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N. nuclear watchdog, within weeks.

The facility is Iran’s second uranium-enrichment site working to produce the fuel to power a nuclear reactor, or potentially the material for a weapon.

A close aide to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Saturday the site will be operational soon and would pose a threat to those who oppose Iran.

“This new facility, God willing, will become operational soon and will blind the eyes of the enemies,” Mohammad Mohammadi Golpayegani told the semiofficial Fars news agency.

Evidence of the clandestine facility was presented Friday by Obama, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and French President Nicolas Sarkozy at the G-20 economic summit in Pittsburgh. On Saturday, Obama offered Iran “a serious, meaningful dialogue” over its disputed nuclear program, while warning Tehran of grave consequences from a united global front.

Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman said Saturday the revelation was firm proof Iran was seeking nuclear weapons.

Israel considers Iran a strategic threat with its nuclear program, missile development and repeated calls by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for Israel’s destruction. It has not ruled out a pre-emptive strike on Iran’s nuclear sites.

In 1981, Israeli warplanes bombed Iraq’s Osirak nuclear reaction and in 2007, Israel bombed a site in Syria that the U.S. said was a nearly finished nuclear reactor built with North Korean help that was configured to produce plutonium – one of the substances used in nuclear warheads.

Israel’s Foreign Ministry had no immediate comment on the missile tests.

Iranian Vice President Ali Akbar Salehi, who heads the country’s nuclear program, said Saturday that U.N. nuclear inspectors could visit the nuclear site. On Sunday, he told Press TV Iran and the IAEA would work out the timing of the inspection.

The small-scale site is meant to house no more than 3,000 centrifuges – much less than the 8,000 machines at Natanz, Iran’s known industrial-scale enrichment facility, but they could still potentially help create bomb-making material.

Experts have estimated that Iran’s current number of centrifuges could enrich enough uranium for a bomb in as little as a year. Washington has been pushing for heavier sanctions if Iran does not agree to end enrichment.

Read more at: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/09/27/iran-test-fires-short-ran_n_301067.html

Dore Gold: The Rise of Nuclear Iran

by Robert J. Avrech

Several days ago, I was invited by One Jerusalem, to attend a private briefing by Dore Gold, former Israeli Ambassador to the U.N., whose important new book, The Rise of Nuclear Iran: How Tehran Defies the West, has just been published.

There were about fifteen of us—bloggers mostly, including my good friend, the brilliant blogger, Omri Ceren of Mere Rhetoric—gathered in the Montage Hotel in Beverly Hills.

Ambassador Dore Gold

Ambassador Gold, looking like a sleepy walrus, spoke in measured, diplomatic tones. But he was fiercely passionate and profoundly knowledgeable about Iranian history, culture, and diplomacy, past and present.

Point by point, Gold emphasized his main thesis:

The Iranian nuclear threat is not just a danger to Israel and the Middle East, but to the West. International complacency, as the Iranians reach the nuclear finish line, warned Gold, is deeply disturbing. This is a subject that should be in the headlines every single day, instead we are confronted with quietism, and yawns expressing an attitude of: “So what?”

The international community, explained Gold, points to Pakistan and North Korea as unstable regimes that possess nuclear weapons and yet they have been contained. Thus, why not view Iran in the same light?

The weakness of this argument reflects a misreading of Iran’s long term strategic goals. Neither Pakistan nor North Korea are attempting regional supremacy. Pakistan is focused on its bottomless conflict with India, and North Korea has no plans to conquer Japan; the Norks, in fact, are focused on maintaining their iron grip on the reins of power.

Iran, on the other hand, is an imperialist Islamic theocracy seeking to export their Shia revolution.

For instance, the Mullahs consider Bahrain to be a lost Persian province, and they also lay claim to slices of Iraq that are home to a Shia majority, including the holy cities of Nadjaf and Karballah. And of course, Iran has threatened, numerous times, to wipe Israel off the map. Further, unlike Pakistan or North Korea, there is no deterrence with Iran.

The Mullahs are prepared to sacrifice millions in order to achieve their expansionist aims.

This was proven during the bloody eight-year war with Iraq. The Iranians recovered territory snatched by Iraq after just two years, but chose to continue warfare for six long years at the cost of hundreds of thousands of Iranian lives.

The Revolutionary Guard used children—wearing plastic keys to heaven around their necks—as human minesweepers.

A regime that so callously murders its own young—martyrdom operations—is, by definition, capable of anything in the name of Allah.

Hence, the calculus of Cold War deterrence—Mutual Assured Destruction—no longer applies.

“Remember,” said Ambassador Gold, “there were no Communist suicide bombers.” Contrast this to the Arab Muslim world where suicide bombers and their families enjoy enormous status.

Iran, emphasized Ambassador Gold, is the world’s greatest exporter of terror. Through various, well-funded proxy armies—Hizbullah, Hamas, etc.—the Iranians have been kidnapping, torturing and killing Americans and Israelis since Ayatollah Khomenei’s Islamic revolution in 1979. And the West has never punished the Iranians for their murderous behavior. Thus the Iranians are encouraged to keep killing for there is never any payback.

The West consistently views Iranian behavior and intentions through the prism of Western values. This is a mistake the West repeats over and over again, refusing to learn from past experience. Gold’s book is filled with footnoted facts about countless Iranian outrages.

Ambassador Gold emphasized that, contrary to popular opinion, every American administration, from Carter to Obama—including George Bush—has engaged Iran in vigorous diplomacy. And every single administration has been snookered by the Iranians, who consider it perfectly acceptable to lie to the enemy. The Islamic doctrine of taquia, elevates this behavior to a religious duty.

And make no mistake about it, the Iranians are intractable in their belief that the West, Christians and Jews, are the eternal enemy.

Time and again, the Iranians have skillfully used dialog and diplomacy to buy time in order to achieve their regional ambitions.

Ambassador Gold would not comment on Israeli military plans for Iran. Nor would he be drawn into commenting on American military cooperation with Israel.

But Gold was quite adamant on two points:

1. Iran is determined to cross the nuclear finish line.

2. Sanctions cannot work.

On my notepad, I scribbled one word in bold script at the end of the briefing: Sobering.

I have always believed that military action is the only option that will be effective against the Mullahs. It’s not a pretty option, but it’s far better than allowing this cruel state to achieve nuclear breakout.

Ponder this scenario: if Iran achieves nuclear capability, transnational Islamic terrorism will be sheltered by a nuclear umbrella, a deterrence—military and diplomatic—that will shield them from any consequences of their terrorist outrages. Further, nuclear weapons—suitcase dirty bombs—will proliferate among non-state Islamic terrorists, and nuclear blackmail will become coin of the realm.

This scenario could easily tip the balance of world power in favor of the Islamist radicals who are determined to subjugate the West and bring about a barbaric 7th century Caliphite.

The laughter you hear over the soundtrack are the Iranians snickering at the credulity of the West.

Currently, the Iranians mock Obama, correctly sensing an administration whose only strategy is: “More talk.”

The Europeans, gutless appeasers, have turned a blind eye. The Russians and the Chinese enable the Iranians at most every turn.

So once again, as with Iraq’s Osirik nuclear reactor, it’s up to Israel to protect itself—and Western civilization.

Copyright © Robert J. Avrech

Photo: © Robert J. Avrech

Iran to hold missile defense exercise on Yom Kippur – Haaretz – Israel News

Last update – 21:04 26/09/2009

Iran to hold missile defense exercise on Yom Kippur

By Reuters and Haaretz Service

Tags: Yom Kippur, Israel News

Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards will hold missile defense exercises on the upcoming Jewish holiday of Yom Kippur, Iranian media reported on Saturday. The announcement of the war games coincided with increased tension in Iran’s nuclear dispute with the West, after the Islamic Republic disclosed that it is building a second uranium enrichment plant. The reports did not say what kind of missiles would be used in the war games, which will start on Sunday, the eve of Yom Kippur. In May, Iran said it had tested a missile that defense analysts said could hit Israel and U.S. bases in the Gulf. Advertisement A statement quoted by Iranian news agencies said the goal of the exercises by the Revolutionary Guards’ air force, was “to raise the deterrence capability of the Iranian armed forces.” On Yom Kippur in 1973, a coalition of Arab states launched a surprise attack on Israel. The ensuing conflict, the Yom Kippur War, was particularly costly and traumatic for Israel. General Hossein Salami, head of the Guards’ air force, said that the drill would include simultaneous firings of missiles at targets. The exercises, which will begin Sunday, will last several days and take place in various locations. Israeli leaders have repeatedly expressed alarm over Iran’s nuclear ambitions and refused to rule out pre-emptive military action to stop Iran developing an atomic weapon. Israel considers Iran a strategic threat due to its nuclear program, missile development and repeated references by Ahmadinejad to Israel’s destruction.

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