Putin and Obama Cross Swords on Syria. What Next?

Putin and Obama Cross Swords on Syria. What Next?.

DEBKAfile Video June 26, 2013, 12:29 PM (IDT)

The sullen confrontation between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Barack Obama at the G8 Summit in Northern Ireland last week condemned Syria to five months of escalating, unresolved vicious warfare – that is until the two leaders meet again in September.

For now, tempers are heating up between Washington and Moscow on Syria and other things too, notably the elusive American fugitive Edward Snowden.
US and Israeli intelligence watchers see the Syrian crisis entering seven ominous phases:
1. A five-month bloodbath centering on the battle for Aleppo, a city of 2.2 million inhabitants.

The Syrian army plus allies and the fully-mobilized opposition will hurl all their manpower and weapons into winning the city.

Military experts don’t expect the rebels to hold out against Assad’s forces beyond late August.

2.  Neither side has enough manpower or game-changing weaponry for winning the war outright.

That is, unless Presidents Obama or Putin steps in to retilt the balance.

3. The US and Russia are poised for more military intervention in the conflict up until a point just short of a military clash on Syrian soil – or elsewhere in the Middle East. US intelligence analysts have judged Putin ready to go all the way on Syria against the US – no holds barred.
The Russian president is meanwhile deliberately goading Washington and raising temperatures by playing hide-and-seek over the former NSA contractor Edward Snowden, charged with espionage for stealing and leaking classified intelligence. At home, he is considered variously as a traitor and a brave whistleblower.

For several hours Snowden vanished between Hong Kong and Moscow – until the Russian president admitted he was holed up in the transit area of Moscow airport and would not be extradited by Russia to the United States.

4.  Iran, Hizballah and Iraq will likewise ratchet up their battlefield presence.

5. A violent encounter is building up between Middle East Shiites flocking to Syria to save the Assad regime alongside Russia, and the US-backed Sunni-dominated rebel forces.
It could scuttle the secret US-Iranian negotiating track on its nuclear program, which was buoyed up by the election of the pragmatic Hassan Rouhani as President of Iran.

6.  The Geneva-2 Conference for a political solution for the Syrian crisis is dead in the water. Moscow and the US are divided by unbridgeable issues of principle, such whether Bashar Assad should stay or go and Iranian representation.

7.  So long as the diplomatic remains stuck in the mud, the prospects of a regional war spreading out of the Syrian conflict are rising. Iran, Israel, Jordan and Lebanon may be dragged in at any moment – if they have not already, like Lebanon.

A small mistake by one of the Syrian warring parties in Syria could, for example, touch off Israeli retaliation and a wholesale spillover of violence.

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8 Comments on “Putin and Obama Cross Swords on Syria. What Next?”

  1. Luis Says:

    We could turn a blind eye to this Debka analysis, if a certain blunder won’t show up regarding the up coming battle for Aleppo.
    If Assad / Hezbollah will ”insist” to take this city then Aleppo will be the grave for the alawite – shiite troops. Assad cannot hope to take the city without a big human slaughter there and in this age of the almighty internet, he cannot afford that. We think that the militants are even wishing for a big blood bath in Aleppo, which if it should happen, than the long awaited foreign intervention in Syria will finally take place. This intervention can be, for example, a non fly zone over Syria or only over a part of it, it depends how many casualties will be in the up coming battle for the city of Aleppo.

    • Justice for Israel Says:

      Dear luis and JW the shits about to really hit the fan take a look at debka,people are sounding very worryed that i know and have gone silent told me to read i9nto it the worst,i think about you both as you are both very good friends jw i know in person luis just from here,the Uk national security council is convened thats very serious it means war with russia at the worst,at best it may be limited,the russian dissidents we know say yesterdays exorcise in panic in Poland was just a taster by the russians for the whole of Europe,keep your nbc kits on you,i think i can speak for all of us who love you on here GODSPEED were thinking about you,sorry for being a pain last week its just the stress of knowing what you wish you did not….i hope its wrong

      • Luis Says:

        I really appreciated your warm words and love for Israel, really. But if my impression means something for you, then don’t expect an all out war with the superpowers being implicated. That simply wont happen because, you know, such a war will be like…lets say the Final Days, and we are not there. At least, not yet. But a bigger conflict in our region – Middle East – yes, that could happen. There are too many hot spots right here, right now so very quiet wont be.

      • Justice for Israel Says:

        i hope your right because thers something going on in the uk and its big there are russian subs in scotland the irish sea the south coast the national security council is convened with the opposition party’s,this only happens when were about to have a serious war,the only time this has happened was after 911,ther is no emergency so you have to read into this weeks events in europe and the middle east something really big is about to happen,This comes the day after there was mass chaos in Poland,now i am in my specialist field here its just what we expected it would start so yes i believe it will start in syria but its likely to play out in Europe if it involves russia,i have given you many pointers to the truth,Forget the end days stuff thats never going to happen,The object is global control and domination not mass extinction i believe that russia and china are making there move now thats the only conclusion you can come to ,it may be the iran attack or syria or both is on it doesn’t matter it will have the same consequences,at this moment this is also playing out in the south pacific and china seas its much bigger than what most people perceive i have already said too much,

  2. John Prophet Says:

    Really

  3. John Prophet Says:

    Seriously

  4. John Prophet Says:

    Give me a brake

  5. John Prophet Says:

    Forget about it


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