Rumors seek to drive U.S. and Iran into conflict in eastern Syria 

Source: Rumors seek to drive U.S. and Iran into conflict in eastern Syria – Middle East – Jerusalem Post

The false reports of airstrikes come in the context of both the US-IRGC tensions and tensions between the SDF and the Syrian regime.

BY SETH J. FRANTZMAN
 APRIL 24, 2019 13:12
HAS HE won in Syria?

Over two consecutive nights, rumors of airstrikes by the US against pro-Syrian regime forces in eastern Syria have led to false reports and denials. The frequency of the reports points to attempts by different actors in the conflict to create tensions between not only Iran and the US, but also between the Syrian regime and the Syrian Democratic Forces, which are backed by Iran and the US, respectively.

The reports are laundered via various publications and spread on social media. For instance Al-Masdar News, which is generally supportive of the Syrian regime, claimed on Tuesday night that the US is “plotting to expel [the] Syrian army, IRGC from key border town.”

The report is based on another report in Al-Watan which claims that “these forces will attempt to expel the Syrian Arab Army and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from the key border town of Albukamal and the large town of Al-Maydeen in rural Deir Ezzor.”

Al-Masdar News

@TheArabSource

US plotting to expel Syrian Army, IRGC from key border town: Al-Watan https://aml.ink/YIrXP 

US plotting to expel Syrian Army, IRGC from key border town: Al-Watan

BEIRUT, LEBANON (5:00 P.M.) – The Arabic-language Al-Watan newspaper claimed on Monday that the U.S.-backed Jaysh Mughawar Al-Thura is forcing tens of

mobile.almasdarnews.com

On the night of April 22, social media accounts reported airstrikes near Deir Ezzor. Soon thereafter, the Syrian military had reportedly had to deny that there was a “US attack on IRGC.” The report, also from Al-Masdar, noted that “all reports claiming the US air force bombed the IRGC near Albukamal are false.” The source said reports claiming the SDF and SAA clashed near Albukamal are false. The clashes actually involved ISIS fighting with the Syrian regime. Yet the reports of US “plots” go back several days, seeking to fuel tensions along the Euphrates River, where the US and SDF are stationed on one side, and Syrian regime and pro-Iranian militias on the other.

The area near Albukamal is a restive and sensitive area. The SDF, with backing from the US-led coalition defeated ISIS in Baghouz, just across the river from Albukamal, in late March. The SDF and the US clashed with pro-Syrian regime militias last year near Deir Ezzor after militias tried to grab control of an oil field in February 2018. In addition in the summer of 2018 an airstrike hit a group of Kata’ib Hezbollah, fueling accusations the US had targeted the Iraqi-based pro-Iranian militia.

Since the US left the Iran Deal and began exerting pressure on Tehran via sanctions, there have been tensions between the US and pro-Iranian groups in Syria and Iraq. This includes the Hashd al-Shaabi (PMU), a group of mostly Shi’ite paramilitaries in Iraq that are now part of the Iraqi Security Forces. They have harassed US soldiers in Anbar province and near Mosul in the last several months. In addition, some militias in the Hashd have openly threatened the US. This includes Asaib Ahl al-Haq and Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba. Harakat Hezbollah was listed as a terrorist organization in March by the US. The US has warned that any attack by pro-Iranian groups in Iraq would lead the US to hold Tehran responsible.

The area of Albukamal is also sensitive because ISIS is present there. Even after its defeat, its cells move back and forth, striking the Syrian regime and SDF. Iran carried out a ballistic missile strike on ISIS near Albukamal in October 2018, not far from US forces. In addition, the US had claimed it was leaving Syria in December 2018, only to reverse the policy. However, the changes in US posture led the SDF, the main partners of the US against ISIS, to open more discussions with the Syrian regime about the possibility of a compromise.

Those discussions have gone cold in the last month and tensions between the SDF and regime may increase. Amid all this, the Iranians have sent high-level delegations to Syria, including the foreign minister, earlier this month. Iran says it supports Syria taking back all of the country, including from the SDF and Turkey in the north. Iran, Turkey and Russia are all part of the Astana peace process in Syria and they all oppose the US presence in eastern Syria. This means that many of these actors and their supporters want tensions with the US to rise and that some may want to test the SDF.

It is in this context that recent rumors have been spread to see if the SDF and the regime will clash and if Iran and the US might be dragged in. The US recently designated the IRGC a terrorist group, which further raises the prospect that any small conflict could spill over into US-IRGC tensions in Syria. Iran has dozens of bases in Syria, a result of its support of the regime in the civil war.

Members of the PMU has were also reported to have claimed the US is conspiring with the SDF to strike at Albukamal and Al-Qaim in Iraq. For instance, on the night of April 23, reports on social media claimed 100 trucks had arrived at Al-Qaim with fuel for Syria and they had been hit by airstrikes. It turned out very quickly to have been entirely made up. Just after midnight, Al-Arabiya reported the same claim: “US airstrikes targeted 32 oil tankers in Deir ez-Zor which tried to enter Syrian government-held areas.”

The reports on April 23 were also oddly specific, with maps and arrows even being posted by users.

“Local sources confirm the targeting by US warplanes of a number of sites belonging to the IRGC and militias affiliated with them in the vicinity of Albukamal and inside the military airport of Deir ez-Zor,” tweeted Eva Koulouriotis, an analyst. There were even images of flares. “100% false,” wrote another user who follows developments in Iraq and Syria. Yet the rumors have persisted now for 24 hours, with each night bringing more “reports” of battles that never took place.

The reports of the strike on oil tankers came after a full day of reports that the SDF was trading oil with the Syrian regime and the US was pressuring them not to. It is almost as if those who created the stories about the strikes wish they would be true but can’t even decide if it is Iraq sending oil to the Syrian regime, or the SDF.

Eva J. Koulouriotis – إيفا كولوريوتي@evacool_


Preliminary information on the destruction of large parts of military airport by warplanes and many dead and wounded in the ranks of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards there.

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Eva J. Koulouriotis – إيفا كولوريوتي@evacool_


A picture of the surrounding area now. pic.twitter.com/HDDXAMCGML

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter
The Syrian conflict has always been full of rumors and conspiracies. On April 24, Iran’s Press TV claimed that a Jihadist group in Idlib was preparing a “false flag chemical attack.” This is the level of coverage pushed by different countries and groups that have an agenda. The way the rumor-mill becomes “news” is that it begins with several social media accounts and then smaller websites pick up the chatter and claim there are “local reports.” Then larger media organizations pick up the “local media reports” and suddenly there are whole articles at Press TV or other places. Then Western media will repeat the claim based on an “Iranian report.”

What may be entirely manufactured or made-up information can then become “reports of airstrikes.” Once the cycle of laundering the information has begun, it spreads quickly. Eventually governments may even be forced to respond to the rumors. Even hours after the “airstrikes” on the 32 tankers, more and more media were picking up the report. At the same time, other social media users were still trying to figure out what happened on the night of April 22, concluding there had been no airstrikes. Idrees Ali of Reuters also noted on Wednesday morning that “US officials say they have no evidence to support any such strike taking place.”

The increased tensions appear to be leading to false reports of airstrikes. This could be an honest mistake that feeds rumors. It also appears that the groundwork has been laid through reports of “conspiracies” to accuse the US of actions against the IRGC in the border area of Iraq and Syria. This could potentially lead to a wider conflict if the rumors eventually turn into reality, because people on the ground are also tense and nervous regarding the complex situation and competing groups all in close proximity to one another.

Explore posts in the same categories: Uncategorized

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s