Why Hillary Likely to Become Next US President No Matter What
Why Hillary Likely to Become Next US President No Matter What
Source: Why Hillary Likely to Become Next US President No Matter What
At the current stage of the US presidential campaign a cautious prognosis could be made that Hillary Clinton would win the race. There are several reasons for such an assumption, including the dynasty tradition inherent in the US political system as well as the specifics of the American electoral process.
Here is a quick look on how political dynasties form in the US.
Like Father Like Son
American political dynasties emerged shortly after the United States appeared on the world political map.
John Adams Jr. served as US president in 1797-1801. His son John Quincy Adams served as the 6th President of the US in 1825-1829. Retired general William Harrison died a month after becoming president, on April 4, 1811. His grandson Benjamin Harrison became president in 1889.
Zachary Taylor who was elected president in 1849 was great nephew of James Madison, the 4th President of the US (1809-1817). Franklin Roosevelt was distantly related to Theodore Roosevelt (president in 1901-1909).Barbara Pierce Bush, the wife of the 41st President of the US, George H.W. Bush, descended from the family of Franklin Pierce, the 14th President of the US. She could have become the mother of two US presidents, but her younger son Jeb Bush withdrew from the ongoing presidential race.
Against the Will of Majority
One of the most distinctive features of the US political system is the fact that in the US a candidate can win the presidential election even if he gains fewer votes than his rival.
The most notable case of this occurring is when George W. Bush won the electoral college to be reelected as president in 2004, even though John Kerry won the popular vote.The issue is that citizens of the US do not directly elect the president. Instead, these voters directly elect designated mediators called “electoral voters.” The candidate who receives an absolute majority of electoral votes (currently 270) for the office of president is elected to office.
The Electoral College allows under-populated states to have an equal command with heavily populated states. For instance, Wyoming has a population of nearly 600,000, and three voters while Texas with a population of 27.5 million has only 38 voters.
Another problem is that except for Maine and Nebraska, electoral voters are distributed on a “winner take all” basis. That is, all electoral voters are pledged to the presidential candidate who wins the most votes in the state.
Maine and Nebraska delegate their electoral votes based on a “congressional district method,” selecting one electoral voter for each congressional district won by popular vote and selecting the remaining two electoral voters by a statewide popular vote.
Why Donald Trump Has Little Chance for Presidency
As a whole, the current electoral system is comfortable for the American political elite because it keeps undesirable candidates and politicians away from assuming power. Even if such a candidate runs from one of the leading parties (like flamboyant billionaire Donald Trump in the ongoing race) the system still cannot guarantee success for them.
According to a survey commissioned by the Gallup Institute, 59-62 percent of US citizens would prefer to elect the president directly. However, this initiative was blocked by Senate back in 1970.
Nevertheless, the struggle goes on. Ten years ago, several US states debated the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, an agreement designed to ensure that the candidate who wins the most popular votes nationwide is elected president. It has not yet come into effect.
As of 2016, it has been joined by 10 states and the District of Columbia, with their 165 combined electoral votes while 270 votes are needed for the compact to have legal force. However, chances are slim for the agreement to come into force.
Members of the Bush and Clinton families have been president of the United States for a total of 20 years, from 1989 to 2009. Then, ex-first lady Hillary Clinton served as Secretary of State during Barack Obama’s term. History of the US political process hint that Hillary Clinton has strong chances to become the 45th President of the United States.
Tags: Donald Trump
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WarSclerotic 
May 5, 2016 at 6:41 PM
Election process or charade ?
Just 270 man will choose the new president !
The word rigged gets a whole new meaning !
May 5, 2016 at 7:12 PM
I wonder if this government wants a revolution on their hands?
May 5, 2016 at 7:36 PM
won’t happen !
Topper !
Bush Family Won’t Endorse Trump
May 5, 2016 at 11:49 PM
We the people will start the Revolution. We don’t care what Bush wants to do. We are just sick to death of the way they are destroying America.
May 5, 2016 at 11:52 PM
Very understandable, but i do not see a revolution as a possibility .
May 6, 2016 at 12:02 AM
Why not? I know American people don’t want to stand up, but if it comes to that some of them will. The American Revolution was started by 3 % of the population. There are way more than 3% of the population now and we are much more prepared for it. NRA members and a gun behind every blade of grass.
May 6, 2016 at 12:09 AM
Different times and different people, no revolutionary leader no unified goal.
And the establishment is also fully prepared for it .
I can not see it happening .
every revolution start with the people, perhaps you will have 3 % of the population ( spread out over the whole USA ) who is willing to go for it, by far not enough .
Suicide !
May 6, 2016 at 3:28 AM
Ah! But there is a leader! That’s why the election is so electrifying! It’s great to have s super strong leader that people can vote for! People who haven’t voted for decades. They saw exactly nothing to be excited for from politicians
May 5, 2016 at 9:45 PM
The Electoral College does Not allow under-populated states to have an equal “command” with heavily populated states.
California has 55 electors. Wyoming 3. Voters in 38 states, like both California and Wyoming, of all sizes, that are reliably red or blue equally don’t matter. Candidates ignore those states and the issues they care about most.
Analysts concluded months ago that only a handful of states are not a foregone conclusion.
The indefensible reality is that more than 99% of presidential campaign attention (ad spending and visits) was invested on voters in just the only ten competitive states in 2012.
Two-thirds (176 of 253) of the general-election campaign events, and a similar fraction of campaign expenditures, were in just four states (Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and Iowa).
38 states had no campaign events, and minuscule or no spending for TV ads.
In 2012, 24 of the nation’s 27 smallest states received no attention at all from presidential campaigns after the conventions. They were ignored despite their supposed numerical advantage in the Electoral College. In fact, the 8.6 million eligible voters in Ohio received more campaign ads and campaign visits from the major party campaigns than the 42 million eligible voters in those 27 smallest states combined.
May 5, 2016 at 9:48 PM
The current electoral system does not ensure undesirable candidates and politicians are kept away from assuming power.
Now 48 states have winner-take-all state laws for awarding electoral votes, 2 have district winner laws. Neither method is mentioned in the U.S. Constitution.
The current system does not provide some kind of check on the “mobs.” There have been 22,991 electoral votes cast since presidential elections became competitive (in 1796), and only 17 have been cast in a deviant way, for someone other than the candidate nominated by the elector’s own political party (one clear faithless elector, 15 grand-standing votes, and one accidental vote). 1796 remains the only instance when the elector might have thought, at the time he voted, that his vote might affect the national outcome.
The electors are and will be dedicated party activist supporters of the winning party’s candidate who meet briefly in mid-December to cast their totally predictable rubberstamped votes in accordance with their pre-announced pledges.
The U.S. Supreme Court has upheld state laws guaranteeing faithful voting by presidential electors (because the states have plenary power over presidential electors).
If an undesirable candidate won states with 270 electoral votes, there is no reason to think that the Electoral College would prevent him/her from being elected President of the United States
With the current state-by-state winner-take-all system of awarding electoral votes (not mentioned in the U.S. Constitution, but later enacted by 48 states), it could only take winning a bare plurality of popular votes in the 11 most populous states, containing 56% of the population of the United States, for a candidate to win the Presidency with a mere 23% of the nation’s votes!
May 5, 2016 at 10:22 PM
First, my thanks for your elaborate comments , very nice .
If an undesirable candidate won states with 270 electoral votes, there is no reason to think that the Electoral College would prevent him/her from being elected President of the United States.
no reason but not guaranteed, and that is the issue !
The supreme court ? complete filled up with puppets, the last independent one tried to eat a pillow .
Because it did not happen before would not mean it can NOT happen in the near future .
May 5, 2016 at 10:31 PM
But they don’t have food stamps .
May 5, 2016 at 10:11 PM
Support for a national popular vote is strong among Republicans, Democrats, and Independent voters, as well as every demographic group in every state surveyed recently. In the 41 red, blue, and purple states surveyed, overall support has been in the 67-81% range – in rural states, in small states, in Southern and border states, in big states, and in other states polled.
Since its origination in 2006, the National Popular Vote bill has been introduced in legislatures in all 50 states and DC.
More than 2,800 state legislators (in 50 states) have sponsored and/or cast recorded votes in favor of the bill.
It has passed 34 state legislative chambers in 23 rural, small, medium, large, Democratic, Republican and purple states with 261 electoral votes, including one house in Arizona (11), Arkansas (6), Maine (4), Michigan (16), Nevada (6), New Mexico (5), North Carolina (15), and Oklahoma (7), and both houses in Colorado (9).
It has been enacted by 11 small, medium, and large jurisdictions with 165 electoral votes – 61% of the 270 necessary to go into effect.
NationalPopularVote.com