WarSclerotic

The white flag is safely tucked away, Israel Hayom, Dr. Ronen A. Cohen, September 14, 2014

The United States’ overt lack of desire to deal with a tiresome and unpopular mess, such as stopping an organization like ISIS, is understandable. On the other side, ISIS has already understood very clearly that while the U.S. might do something, it won’t be deep and sustained like in Iraq in 2003, and it will be able to keep the white flag safely tucked in its pocket.

It is hard to believe that a quasi-surgical procedure on the part of the U.S., with limp support from Arab states, will truly succeed in preventing the resurrection of similar groups in the future. Israelis woke up from this illusion decades ago, but in the United States and the West, and mostly in Arab states — they are still asleep.

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Something amazing has been happening in the international arena in recent weeks, pertaining to the question of fighting the murderous Islamic State group, also known as ISIS. The United States finally remembered that this organization, once upon a time, was part of al-Qaida, the same organization that dealt the U.S. a heavy blow on Sept. 11, 2001. It also remembered that when it doesn’t wake up in time, things tend to blow up in its face, either at home or in its back yard — Europe (while the cartoons published in the Arab world provide a chuckle, they are especially disconcerting).

In light of this alleged awakening, U.S. President Barack Obama announced that his country is forming an international coalition to stymie the spread of ISIS through airstrikes only.

In a parallel universe, in the old and not so good Middle East, the Arab states have adhered to the diplomatic code visa the United States and expressed their joy upon hearing this declaration. It is hard to say they were overjoyed, but they knew regardless that the declaration was important even while lacking any real content.

From a less diplomatic perspective, the Arab states know their strength is no match for ISIS, especially when its spread has become like a viral disease. The ticking ISIS time bomb in Iraq and Syria is the same bomb ticking away among civilian populations in many cities throughout the region. The creation of a collation with Iran and possibly Syria is a bad scenario for Israel, but mainly for the U.S. They still, however, as always, don’t get it.

The United States’ overt lack of desire to deal with a tiresome and unpopular mess, such as stopping an organization like ISIS, is understandable. On the other side, ISIS has already understood very clearly that while the U.S. might do something, it won’t be deep and sustained like in Iraq in 2003, and it will be able to keep the white flag safely tucked in its pocket. One of the lesser-known reasons for this, even in Israel and especially in the Arab states, is that the Americans have awoken from their illusion over Saddam Hussein’s chemical weapons and that a growing number of voices (and articles) have emerged recently about American intelligence fabricating facts in order to drag the U.S. into a campaign against the former Iraqi dictator. Today, before any type of similar undertaking, facts will be checked seven-fold, which is one of the reasons the U.S. has asked Israel for relevant information, due to the Americans’ dearth of satellite imagery, drones and other technological intelligence gathering tools in the area. And if we ponder the essence of this request, we will discover that American intelligence, despite its impressive capabilities, often presents scenarios that are incongruent with realities on the ground, which leads the decision-makers in Washington to make faulty, destructive and ineffective decisions.

I am not sure the leaders and commanders of ISIS sat down and meticulously studied the history, but it is important to note a very palpable sense in the Arab and Islamic world, specifically in light of its conduct visa the West. It is reasonable to assume that ISIS is also living and breathing these insights. At one time or another it was the Byzantines, the Crusaders, the missionaries, imperialism, colonialism etc., and today it is Western countries, the same Christian countries seeking to impose their cultural ideas and modernity over Islamic lands.

This end to this current, bloody and deadly chapter in the history of the Middle East is already known. In this chapter the United States and the West lead the world, into the near and distant future, in the name of technology and modernity, but it pits a weak West against an Islam growing in strength — and, to its joy, its strength is growing primarily in these very Western countries.

It is difficult to predict the developments soon to unfold in detail, and it would be wrong to try. It is possible that ISIS is a fleeting phenomenon, perhaps the Muslim Brotherhood and al-Qaida are, as well, and maybe there is a naive hope that the Arab states are truly marching toward profound introspection regarding their chaotic internal condition.

However, when considering the dialectics of power and evolutionary development of murderous and revolutionary groups, such as ISIS and its brethren, the future doesn’t look promising. It is hard to believe that a quasi-surgical procedure on the part of the U.S., with limp support from Arab states, will truly succeed in preventing the resurrection of similar groups in the future. Israelis woke up from this illusion decades ago, but in the United States and the West, and mostly in Arab states — they are still asleep.

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