Lessons of the Iraqi chaos
Israel Hayom | Lessons of the Iraqi chaos.
Uzi Dayan
What is the meaning of the chaos unfolding in Iraq? Two day after Mosul was overrun by the Salafi terror group the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, Tikrit — the birthplace of former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein and of the legendary Saladin — fell as well.
Sunnis are now in control of areas stretching from the Iraqi capital of Baghdad to the Syrian city of Aleppo; and as the Iraqi military’s response falters, Kurdish forces have taken over Kirkuk.
Washington has pledged its assistance, Turkey has called for an emergency NATO session, and according to media reports, Iran has dispatched a Revolutionary Guards force to aid the struggling Iraqi regime. The Middle East, it seems, has once again plunged into turmoil.
This kind of regional uncertainty usually calls for exercising two rules: the first, be prepared to counter the enemy’s capabilities, not his intentions; and the second, vigilantly protect your strategic assets, especially your defensible borders.
Defensible borders must afford Israel basic strategic depth and protection against the threat of conventional warfare, as well as the ability to fight terror.
In the southern sector, largely thanks to the demilitarization of Sinai, and in the northern sector, thanks to Israel’s adamant refusal to cede the Golan Heights, Israel has defensible borders. The eastern sector however, only has one border that meets Israel’s security needs — the one stretching across the Jordan Rift Valley.
The distance between the Jordan Rift Valley and the Mediterranean Sea is 64 kilometers (40 miles), making for only minimal strategic depth. The valley, between the Jordan River and the hills overlooking it from the west, constitutes an irreplaceable defense theater against a potential eastern front. Only the valley can serve as a protective buffer against a potential terrorist entity in Judea and Samaria.
An outlook for the immediate future projects several potential scenarios: jihadist terrorism will stretch beyond Syria; Hamas is eyeing a takeover of the Palestinian Authority; Iraq’s disintegration will continue and it will be split between Sunni groups; the Kurds may declare independence (which is good for Israel), and the Shiites will join forces with Iran which, for its part, will continue to make a mockery of the West as it bolsters its nuclear arsenal.
Facing these realities, can those who claim that “topography and territorial control are virtually meaningless in a modern, technological world,” that “there is no ‘eastern front’ and there never will be,” and that “only peace will bring security,” be certain that taking an uncalculated risk and ceding, even if partially, security control over the Jordan Rift Valley, is such a good idea?
The situation in Iraq is difficult and confusing but one thing is certain — only full Israeli control over the entire Jordan Rift Valley, as a security zone running along the Jordanian border, will afford Israel true security.
Maj. Gen. (res.) Uzi Dayan is a former IDF deputy chief of staff and former head of the National Security Council.
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WarSclerotic 
June 13, 2014 at 3:01 PM
Sorry guys but I don’t want to see any more US troops killed, maimed, and slaughtered (via rules of engagement which is a complete dishonor to our troops) in Iraq. We spent billions and devoted endless man-hours training the Iraqi military to stand on its own. If they cannot stand for a free Iraq, then nothing we do will have a lasting effect on peace.
June 13, 2014 at 3:19 PM
As we speak, Obama is considering air strikes against ISIS, but insists there will be no ‘boots on the ground”. I remember that not long ago our troops had to fight door to door throughout major Iraqi cities to break the grip of the insurgents. What makes things different today?
We need to stay out of this one just like Israel, France, Britain, Germany, and the rest of the damned world.
June 13, 2014 at 4:18 PM
The less the west cares the more they take care of each other 🙂
June 13, 2014 at 4:30 PM
Reblogged this on BPI reblog and commented:
Lessons of the Iraqi chaos
June 13, 2014 at 5:44 PM
So now Iran is willing to join forces with the US to defeat ISIS??? Give me a break. How about they dump the nuke program first. This whole thing is turning into one big cluster f*ck.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/13/us-iraq-security-iran-idUSKBN0EO0QH20140613
June 13, 2014 at 7:48 PM
Trying to get a handle on the long term implications of this sweeping/unfolding chain of events is difficult if not impossible for people who are not, “in the loop”. That having been said, here are MY two cents-as of THIS moment in time.
Iraq and Syria are now effectively partitioned. There now exists a theater of conflict in which Iran is intricately entwined. Iran will be tied down dealing with a Sunni/Shia conflict that will go on for a LONG time. Iran is going to learn how it feels to lose blood and treasure in a conflict outside it’s borders. For a great many upcoming years (decades),Iran is far more likely to be fighting directly with Sunni Muslims, rather than with Jews. By the time the Sunni/Shia war winds down, the Arab/Islamic world will be exhausted and more impoverished than it EVER was. I wish the Kurds well. I think they’ll be ok. I hope that they thrive, and become a regional powerhouse. Turkey seems to be a pivotal backstage player, ostensibly flowing arms to the Sunni fighters, while simultaneously maintaining relations with Iran. Maintaining THAT may well become an increasingly complex undertaking for the Turk regime. Israel, willhave to remain vigilant, but probqbly will not be dragged into the larger conflagration. Lastly, I doubt that Barak Obama will drop one bomb upon the Sunni insurgents gathering around Baghdad. As stated earlier, Iraq is partitioned. Iran is now tasked with propping up what is left of al Maliki’s now destroyed country. The sunni and shia will be slaughtering each other for decades. The Kurds and the Israelis and the Jordanians must remain vigilant, but should be ok.
June 13, 2014 at 7:56 PM
Totally agree and well said EM. Might I add that Obama will not attack his Sunni brothers, just as he supported the Muslim Brotherhood. Besides, Obama will not even protect our own borders much less Iraq’s. As we speak, thousands are entering the US illegally and without recourse…so much so, that military bases are being used to ‘process’ them.
June 13, 2014 at 8:04 PM
Well here’s my 2 cents:
Do I trust Zero to do any military operation correctly or to ever act in America’s best interests in his remaining 2.5 years? After he’s constantly worked against America for 5.5 years? HELL NO!!!
But that being said, the radical Islamic threat is greater now than it was pre-9/11 (largely thanks to Zero). If the US thinks it can unilaterally withdraw from the world because they are “weary” from war, or they believe in the dovish delusions of appeasement on the far left, they are sadly mistaken.
It’s 1939 all over again, and it’s time we face facts and accept reality.