Surprise Attack on Iran: Can Israel Do It?

Surprise Attack on Iran: Can Israel Do It?.

April 16, 2014

According to a report [3] in March by the Israeli daily Haaretz, Israel continues to prepare for a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Quoting anonymous members of the Knesset who were present during hearings on the military budget, officials in the Israel Defense Force (IDF) have allegedly received instructions to continue preparing for a strike and a special budget has been allocating for that purpose. However, conducting a military operation against Iran’s key nuclear facilities would be a challenging task for the Israeli military. The distance from Israel to the Iranian nuclear sites is such that any strike using the air force would be challenging on its fuel capacity. Allocating tanker planes to the mission could alleviate part of this concern. Nonetheless, Israeli jets can’t spend too much time in Iranian airspace before the mission itself is in jeopardy. Engaging Iran’s air force in dogfights must be avoided. Therefore, surprise will be a necessary element in a successful Israeli mission.

A successful surprise attack is not easy to achieve. It rests on the ability to deceive the adversary. In general, a deception strategy might involve several elements, related to the timing of the operation, the military platforms involved, the targets, the routes chosen to the targets, the munitions used, and so on. There are several potential obstacles. First, preparations for conducting a military operation must be made without revealing the main elements of the surprise. Second, the political decision must be made covertly, that is, without revealing the timing of the operation. Could Israel pull it off?

Israel’s History of Surprise

Israel has in the past utilized both of these elements in order to succeed with conducting military operations. Both the Entebbe operation in 1976 and the attack on the Iraqi reactor in 1981 came as complete surprises to the targets due to their lack of knowledge about Israel’s military capabilities and understanding of its decision-making process and willingness to accept risk.

An example of the latter factor as an element of surprise was the 1967 attack on Egyptian airfields. At the time, Israel possessed about two hundred operational jets. 188 were used against the airfields. The costs of this strategy were obvious: only twelve planes were left to defend Israel’s territory. Egypt failed to understand the Israeli willingness to accept risk, which in part led to the mission’s success.

Another example of deception came before the 1982 invasion of south Lebanon. Prior to the formal Israeli annexation of the Golan Heights in late 1981, Israel amassed military forces in the north to deter a Syrian response. Instead of scaling back after tension had subdued, Israel kept the forces there in order to utilize them in the forthcoming Lebanese campaign. Getting used to the increased Israeli military presence in the north, the PLO and Syria failed to consider the possibility that these might be stationed there for a forthcoming invasion. Israel was itself the victim of this strategy in 1973. Egypt conducted several large training drills prior to its surprise crossing of the Suez Canal. This made it hard for the Israelis to assess whether the Egyptian actions were part of another drill or preparation for an actual attack. The Israeli failure to acknowledge this potential Egyptian deception strategy is also an example of how a state fails in incorporating the lessons of the past. Just five years earlier the Russian army had invaded Czechoslovakia in a move that begun as a training exercise and continued as a surprise attack. The head of Israeli military intelligence at the time, Aaron Yariv, issued a directive that every major training exercise by an adversary was to be regarded as a potential attack, but this directive was forgotten by the Israeli military and political leadership after Yariv quit his position in 1972.

There was an additional element to the 1973 Egyptian deception strategy. In 1968, Egyptian generals concluded that they did not have the capabilities to challenge the Israeli military. Still, the decision was to train as if it had the military capability to go through with the attack. After focusing all of its effort on covertly acquiring the necessary equipment and manpower—thereby making previous exercises more relevant—its capabilities came as a surprise to the Israelis who still assessed that the Egyptian military was in no shape to undertake the crossing. Israel learned the lesson of that experience and then utilized it in the 1981 attack on the Iraqi reactor. After having trained for months on fuel-saving maneuvers, and after just having absorbed their new U.S.-supplied F-16 fighters, the Israeli air force had acquired the necessary capabilities for the mission. It was Iraq’s turn to fail in accurately updating its assessment of Israel’s capabilities.

Surprise and Decision-Making

An element of deception must also be included in the decision-making process. The meeting of the Syrian-Egyptian Armed Forces Supreme Council in August 1973 serves as a precedent. In order to keep the meeting secret, all participants resorted to civilian means of transport and false passports. An important topic was on the agenda at that meeting—a decision on the two options for D-Day (only to be awaiting the final approval of presidents Sadat and Assad). It was deemed crucial that the Israelis did not learn of the meeting.

In Israel, it is the government as a whole—not the prime minister—that is the commander-in-chief of the military. The green light for a decision to attack Iran’s nuclear sites must thus be obtained from the cabinet ministers. Upholding secrecy after a vote in the full ministerial cabinet is a challenge. The cabinet meets every Sunday morning. However, according to the procedure requirements, the agenda items must be finalized by the preceding Wednesday. Listing the item “military attack against Iran” is not an option since the time frame from Wednesday to Sunday is a long period to keep a secret. There are three options: assure an unscheduled meeting (which may well ring some alarms), vote in advance (that is, further outsource the decision on timing to a smaller forum, but this would still risk the leak of valuable information), or announce a general or fake topic. The Begin government chose the second option prior to the attack on the Iraqi reactor in 1981. Then the ministerial cabinet approved the operation in principle and allowed the final decision to be made in the smaller security cabinet (consisting of key ministers). Former premier Ehud Olmert preferred a combination of the first and third option. The press release announcing an unscheduled cabinet meeting the day before the attack on the Syrian reactor in September 2007 said that the security cabinet was to convene to discuss “Israel’s response to Kassem rocket fire from the Gaza Strip”. Another example of Olmert’s masking of the decision-making process leading up to the attack on the reactor was related to a meeting with the U.S. administration in June 2007. The official reason given for the meeting between Olmert and George W. Bush on June 19 was Iran’s nuclear program and the peace process. However, in that meeting Olmert urged the U.S. to attack the reactor.

The Defensive Preparations Dilemma

Since the Iranians are expecting an operation, it would be impossible for Israel to achieve strategic surprise like they did with the attack on the Iraqi reactor in 1981. However, operational and tactical surprise may be achieved with regards to how the operation will be conducted and the specific date and time of the operation. One of the major problems will be how to achieve operational surprise when preparations will need to be undertaken to counter the threat of missiles from Iran, Hezbollah, and Palestinian groups in Gaza. One solution to this defensive preparations dilemma is to conduct exercises and distribute personal protective gear continuously for a long time, so as to make it impossible for Iran to determine when an attack will be launched. This has indeed been done. In recent years, Israel has conducted numerous large home-front exercises (in part also as a result of the Syrian civil war and potential fallout). It has also distributed gas masks to a large portion of the population (although it has recently been scaled back).

Mobilization of the reserves is a complex issue in Israel that also touches on the decision-making process. The mobilization would risk being delayed if it takes place under a massive missile attack from Iran and Hezbollah. A recent report from Israel’s state comptroller questioned the reserves’ ability to mobilize under fire. As such, the order needs to be given prior to the initial Israeli attack. However, mobilizing the reserves would be a signal to Iran that an attack is impending. It is possible that the Israeli leadership’s preferences for operational secrecy induce it to delay the mobilization until the day of the attack (to the risk of higher casualty numbers). According to Israeli law, mobilization of the reserves requires the approval of the Knesset Committee on Defense. Time could be saved with obtaining the committee’s approval in the months preceding the attack. Begin obtained an approval for the operation against the Iraqi reactor in the full ministerial cabinet in October 1980, which then outsourced the timing decision to the security cabinet. To protect secrecy after a series of domestic leaks, the security cabinet later decided to leave the decision on the date of the operation to Begin, Foreign Minister Yitzhak Shamir, and Chief of Staff Rafael Eitan. A similar procedure could be implemented with regards to the decision to mobilize the reserves.

Offensive Preparations

Complex military operations require lengthy preparations that cannot be concealed. However, although an adversary might know about the intention to attack, the timing and conduct of the operation are more difficult to dissect. In recent years, the Israeli military has conducted numerous offensive exercises to prepare for a potential green light from the political leadership. Two recent exercises demonstrating the capabilities of the Israeli air force took place in December 2013 and January 2014. Such exercises do not only prepare the pilots for a potential mission, it may also serve as part of a deception strategy. For several years prior to the Six Day War in 1967, Israeli aircraft could routinely be seen in the mornings hovering over the Mediterranean. As the Egyptians became familiar with the flight pattern, its air force did not pay much attention when Israeli planes followed the same route on the morning of June 5, 1967. The Israelis then launched a surprise attack. The trick used was to manipulate the adversary’s perceptions and expectations. Although Iran is not neighboring Israel and does not have significant satellite surveillance assets, it does have some intelligence capabilities that it uses to monitor Israel. For example, an Iranian radar is stationed in Syria. Iran is also known to be studying Israel’s military conduct in past campaigns. The head of the Iranian Civil Defense Organization Gholam Reza Jalali recently stated that it had sent a team to Lebanon after the 2006 war to study the effect of Israeli munitions on destroyed buildings. Apparently, Iran is also monitoring Israeli intentions and decision making. On January 26, 2013—four days prior to an Israeli attack on a convoy carrying missiles from Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon—Supreme Leader Khamenei’s close advisor Ali Akbar Velayati stated that Iran would perceive an attack on Syria as an attack on Iran itself. Velayati might have known about the transport in advance and attempted to increase its chance of reaching its destination by creating a deterrent against an Israeli attack. This suggests that the Iranian regime have some understanding of Israeli intentions and redlines. Two Israeli signals are typical of an impending attack: deployment of Iron Dome batteries in areas of likely fallout and unscheduled meetings in the security cabinet. However, since the Israelis know there are under surveillance, they can also use it for deception. As long as the Syrian civil war continues, it would be difficult for Iran to know whether Israeli preparations are intended for the Syrian or Iranian arena. If Iran gets used to the Israeli behavioral pattern, then a surprise attack would be easier to achieve.

Operational Surprise

The need for surprise requires that Israel is the one choosing the date of the operation. This may sound as an unnecessary consideration since by definition a preemptive attack is triggered by a decision in the leadership of the attacking country. However, with regards to the timing of an attack against Iran’s nuclear facilities, there are some limits that constrain the time frame available to an attacker. Iran’s nuclear program offers two potential routes to a nuclear weapon—enrichment of uranium in centrifuge facilities or the production of plutonium in a yet-to-be-operational heavy-water reactor. Both of these routes must be considered when deciding on the date of an attack. The problem with linking the attack date to developments of the program is that Iran would have some control over the time frame available for an attack, thereby decreasing Israel’s ability to achieve surprise. Since an operational nuclear reactor is a politically difficult target and as such is off limits, the date when the Arak reactor will go “hot” serves as the outer boundary of the available time frame. Iran would have an incentive to get it operational in order to reduce the utility of an Israeli operation against the other facilities (it makes less sense to attack the enrichment facilities when Iran could subsequently move to produce plutonium using the surviving reactor). On the other hand, its operational status constitute an Israeli redline, so Israel will have a strong incentive to launch an attack before it goes “hot.” From the Iranian perspective, there is a dilemma between halting the work on the reactor—thereby reducing tension with Israel—and continuing with the work to dictate Israel’s available time frame.

The element of surprise is also related to the choice of flight route to targets in Iran. Early detection by neighboring states situated along the Israeli route is not necessarily an operational threat as long as the Israeli planes are not targeted by Arab antiaircraft systems and early warning is not passed on to the Iranian government. Given Israel’s dependence on achieving the element of surprise with regards to the operation’s timing, coordinating the operation with an external actor might be problematic and would involve considerable risk. Over the years, several such alleged partnerships have been suggested. In April 2012, a rumor emerged that Israel had been granted access to Azeri bases. Both Turkey and Saudi Arabia have been named for this purpose as well. In June 2010 news reports surfaced in Western media saying that the Saudi military had conducted a test of its antiaircraft systems and radars to ensure that it did not attack Israeli jets en route to targets in Iran. And again, in November 2013, The Sunday Times reported that Riyadh had given its consent to Israel’s use of its airspace. However, coordinating a leak-sensitive operation with another state involves huge risks. Israel recently learned the price of regional cooperation with regards to sensitive operations. According to a October 2013 report by The Washington Post columnist David Ignatius, Turkey-Israel intelligence relations experienced a severe setback after Turkish espionage chief Hakan Fidan provided Iran with a list of Iranians who had met Mossad case officers in Turkey. There is thus an inherent dilemma between coordinating with an external actor—thereby easing the operational obstacles represented by the length of the route, the number of planes necessary for destroying the targets, and the requirements for conducting rescue operations—and minimizing the risk of leaks.

In order to avoid early detection, Israel would need to reduce the external signals of the strike force. This can be done is several ways. One way is to jam or blind radars located along the route to the nuclear sites. Another option is to avoid the radars’ detection range. On June 7, 1981, Israeli jets on their way to the Iraqi reactor were flying low above the desert to avoid detection by radars. Similar low-profile flight paths could be chosen to Iranian nuclear sites. A third option is to use decoys to lure Iran into focusing its attention on the wrong targets. This was Israel’s deception strategy in the 1982 Bekaa Valley attack on Syrian anti-aircraft batteries. A fleet of Israeli UAVs was detected by Syrian radar. Subsequently, the anti-aircraft positions were exposed as the decoys were targeted. One can also try to pretend that the planes belong to the adversary. This might be the reason for Iran’s recent decision to copy Israel’s Heron design for its Fotros UAV. Iranian-made UAVs operated by Hezbollah have penetrated Israeli air space several times in the past: twice during the Second Lebanon War in 2006 and once in October 2012. Should a Fotros UAV penetrate Israeli airspace, it might take some time for Israel to identify it as hostile. The same could apply to Israeli jets or UAVs operating in Iranian air space.

As they examine the difficulties of carrying out a strike, Israeli operational analysts can take comfort in the fact that Israel has achieved surprise many times before. Iran, as the intended target of a potential attack, is faced with several problems. One is to detect the decision to attack. Another is to accurately assess the timing and conduct of the operation. And a third problem is to take measures to prevent it. Iran was caught off guard by Iraq’s invasion in September 1980. Could it get caught napping again?

Thomas Saether is a Norwegian security analyst and a post-graduate from the MA program in security studies at Tel Aviv University.

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31 Comments on “Surprise Attack on Iran: Can Israel Do It?”

  1. OyiaBrown Says:

    Reblogged this on Oyia Brown.

  2. Ivan Smith Says:

    Who needs this information except for the enemies of Israel? Haaretz betrays Israel, as always. Another possible purpose of this article is to prevent any possibility of stopping Iran to make nukes. Haaretz is hell bent to help Iranian Islamofascists.

  3. John Prophet Says:

    It is far too late for Israel to attack a country as large as Iran. The examples used on past attacks were on single above ground targets, not hardened targets deep underground spread around a large country. Iran has proxy armies that surround Israel armed to the teeth with 10,000’s rockets and missiles that would rain down on Israel after an “attack”. Netanyahu’s legacy will be one of failure allowing Israel to be laid so vulnerable.

    • josephwouk Says:

      Good old “5th column” JP…

      Israel CAN’T win. Oh, and it’s their own damn (Netanyahu’s) fault.

      You’re losing your touch, JP. Getting too obvious….

      Thankfully you know less than you could ever suspect.

      That this is so is made painfully evident by any high tech journal or site you chose to visit.

      When Israel’s involved, expect the unexpected…

      🙂

      • John Prophet Says:

        Joe, it will never happen. The shit storm that follows would ruin Israel. Should have been done long ago and YES future historians will hold Netanyahu to blame for putting Israel into such an untenable bind. It IS written!

      • John Prophet Says:

        Joe, you do jot need to be a rocket scientist to know the Iranian situation is nothing like hitting a one off target as in the other cases mentioned in the article. Israel is not invincible, and is becoming less invincible every day as Mordor readies its forces!

  4. idsnowdog Says:

    The best route would be for an Israeli strike to fly north over the Mediterranean until it reaches the northern Syrian border. Refuel over the Mediterranean and then fly east on the Syrian side of the border to strike Iranian targets. That way the Israelis wouldn’t violate any neutral airspace or invite retaliation against neutral nations. If they fly over Saudi Arabia, Jordan or Iraq it will invite retaliation against those countries and it will be hard to argue non-involvement.

  5. Tommy Shaw Says:

    sure they can do it,even with no help from the west.althou Russian engineers have built this thing Russian gov.surely wont like it and might be the beginning of the end for all of us.russian have been quiet for about 25 years selling off there navy to rouge goverments and still building weapon platforms like china,so somewhere someplace they been exchanging idea’s and technology to use against Israel and us.but don’t give a second thought,that bear and dragon will be slain together,not by us or any other earthly power,but a slaughter of 1000 lb hail stones when they nuke usa and make there move on the lamb in the bible future war we all know about.wait,watch and pray.

  6. Voltaire Says:

    I wish all these religious whack jobs would all blow each other up already. Jews are just as delusional as Muslims and both are as delusional as Christians. 7,000 years of slaughtering each other to defend the imaginary alien warlord in the sky. Nuke the whole f*ing region for all I care, and start feeding Christians to lions again. Then move on to the other fringe cults, like Scientology and Belieberism.

  7. Ed Kazni Says:

    The answer to the title question is NO. Israel canNOT do it. Physically any country can attack Iran. More like anyone can attack the guy walking down the street…the question is at what cost? then the answer would be NO they cant.

  8. Tommy Shaw Says:

    first,has men we think we are in control of our good judgment conscious this is not true,second it sez if im will thee who can be against thee.so saying this when Israel desides to make there move,who or what is in the way will be delt with at that time,be it on any front to protect the lamb.we are in the watching part of this arena and dont be surprise that the lamb can put down the bear and the dragon single handed has those they fight against conscious will be confused,afraid with great trembling has there very soul will witness this fury.so you seen when you fight against the lamb you have two war fronts..fight god and israel at the same time.the out come wont be pretty.armgeddon

  9. uplate5301 Says:

    Surprise is not the only way to accomplish this sort of mission. Total domination will get the job done as well. While the article says the Israelis want to avoid dog-fighting, in truth the IAF would massacre any resistance the Iranians tried to put up. It would be on the order of what they did to Syria when the Syrians lost 87 MiGs and the Israelis suffered zero losses.

    The Russian surface to air systems that could actually interfere with the Israeli operations are not yet installed. What the Iranians have now would be easily defeated.

    The problem for Israel is the distance factor. Figure a way to overcome that, and Israel could completely control Iranian air space in just a few days.

  10. CARLOS LIZARRAGA Says:

    Whether Saudi and Jordan get involved or not-they will be hit by Iran if Iran’s offensive weapons are not taken out first.There will be very little as to the element of surprise,however ECM will be employed by Israel to blind Iran’s air defenses. It will consist of sheer brutal and devastating force against Iran with the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons by Israel in limited areas of Iran -of course of strategic value to Iran.We can expect new technologies tested in that battle.And if Iran persists-Tehran will be obliterated.Chemicals were used on innocent Syrian citizens,and the world did nothing.Israel will use their tactical nukes on Iran and nothing will happen to them.After all,Iran has promised to destroy the jews on numerous occasions.The spoils of war go to the victors.What Israel cannot afford is to have the bomb dropped on them.

  11. Rob Says:

    As George Bush said, Iran is not Iraq or Syria. If Israel attacks Iran it is inevitable to expect a catastrophic destruction on both sides. Israel will be heavily damaged. Iran is waiting for Israel to be stupid enough to attack and then they will retaliate with all they got. Then the Naytanyahoo guy has to use his nukes and then Iran will have to use all the WMDs that they have and it will not be pretty for either side but Iran has no choice but to defend itself as Israel started the war by attacking Iran and is the aggressor as usual. Russia and China will be siding with Iran and it will drag US into this fiasco and WW3??
    But, thankfully, Israel is not that stupid. They know better and that is why for the past 10 years, they just talk about attacking. If they wanted to attack, then they would not talk, just attack!!

  12. tedandderby Says:

    Israel needs to confront the reality that her position as the number one Mideast power is on a countdown basis. Oil brings money, and money brings weapons that convert to power, Right now is her best chance to negotiate an permanent peace with the best outcome. Not what Israel wants but better than she will get if she waits. The US is doing her a favor by dragging Iran into the family of Nations. Israel needs to recognize this, and negotiate a deal for her permanent homeland. .

  13. Elmo Says:

    Israel’s Jets has two fuel tanks on them allowing them to get into Iran and back without refueling.

  14. Ken Laliberte Says:

    Elmo you are correct but by having two fuel tanks were do you put the bombs

    • Elmo Says:

      Good question but I sure they have that worked out. I read the Jews can do things with their jets that we cannot so far.

  15. farshad Says:

    If Israel will not attack Iran to acquire nuclear weapons will

  16. George C Says:

    For God and Country…………

    KABOOM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    RIP Iran 2013

  17. Tommy Shaw Says:

    f16 has many fancy upgrades made by Israel,10 jet total..2 fitted with 2 750 gallon wing tanks that’s 3000 total in air refueling,just before attack over Iraq top off,fly mission top off again while climbing out to safe altitude.mission does be home for corn flakes with no loses.one less problem.mission time -2 hours.

  18. OrlandoV Says:

    In the Book of Genesis, Chapter 12, Verse 1-3, we see what God says about His response to how people treat Israel:

    “And I will bless those that bless you and curse the one who curses you. And in you shall all families of the earth be blessed.”

  19. Khalil Hamid Says:

    wow alot of military experts here. Dont you think that iran study all of these possibilities?


  20. To those who say it can never happen, I suggest you have a conversation with any of our sailors who were crewmembers of the old ‘Liberty’ when the unthinkable happened to her. Or ask the Iraqis. Ask any of Israel’s neighbors who thought on more than one occasion that they were about to wipe Israel off the map. Times change, but history shows how initiative, imagination and their incredible determination to risk all in the face of national extermination serves Israel well.

  21. lyons share Says:

    They can do it, without our help. We just need to stay out of the way. They can overfly all Muslim countries and they will never know it till it is done. Unlike the US they don’t care who they pissoff.


  22. As Israel, Iran has the right of self defense, Iran must buy 100s of JF-17 thunder from Pakistan, which are cheap and good to protect it skies

  23. Tommy Shaw Says:

    ever drive a long distance and get so sleepy you had to pull over for a hour cat nap,this is a feeling of fatigue and can be induced into your subconscious by outside source.so while Israel flying in toward target,don’t think for a moment that GOD will not induce this feeling toward the enemy,GOD can steal your consciousness to where you don’t know anything of human nature all the while making Israeli pilots consciousness sharp has a razor.if im with thee,tell me who can against thee?


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