Off Topic: The eyes of Vladimir Putin
Israel Hayom | The eyes of Vladimir Putin.
Clifford D. May
Russian President Vladimir Putin is not happy. The government he backed in Ukraine has collapsed. The Ukrainian leader he favored, Viktor Yanukovych, is on the run, accused of the “mass murder” of protestors.
I am not so bold as to predict what Putin will do next. But that he will take action — perhaps very bold action — should be the working assumption of American policy planners.
On one level, Putin is a simple man: He likes to hunt, fish and ride horses bareback (and I’m talking about his back, not the horses’). Those who cross him end up in cages in Siberia — or worse. Employing Machiavellian principles, he has become, over the past 15 years, a neo-czar.
He also has demonstrated a remarkable ability to befuddle American leaders. In 2001, President George W. Bush looked into Putin’s eyes and came away with “a sense of his soul” — suggesting it resembled Thomas Jefferson rather than Ivan the Terrible.
Nevertheless, U.S. President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton convinced themselves that it was Bush’s cowboy swagger — not conflicting geopolitical interests — that were the root cause of Russo-American tensions. Their solution: “Reset” relations with the Kremlin. That this was a misguided policy became evident when Clinton, with elaborate fanfare, presented Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov with a button inscribed with the Russian word peregruzka. She believed it meant “reset.” In fact, it means “overcharge.” (Reset is perezagruzka. True, that’s only a two-letter mistake. But just one letter separates Obama from Osama.)
Two things to keep in mind about Putin: (1) Just as a U.S. Marine is always a U.S. Marine, so a KGB colonel is always a KGB colonel. (2) He believes — and in 2005 stated clearly — that the “demise of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe” of the 20th century.
That does not imply that he is a communist. Ideologies — indeed, ideas — are of little apparent interest to him. What he does care about is power — for himself, yes, but also for the Russian nation and people. Under both czars and commissars, Russia commanded an empire. If Putin does not restore Russian hegemony over a vast swath of Eurasia it won’t be for lack of effort.
No territory is more central to this mission than Ukraine, which Putin sees as a Russian territory. Not entirely without reason: Rus’, the first eastern Slavic state, was founded around what is now the Ukrainian capital of Kiev in the 9th century. “Ukraine” derives from a Slavic root meaning “borderland.” You’ve been reading news stories about “Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine” and “Ukrainian-speakers in the west,” but the two Slavic tongues are actually more mutually intelligible than, say, the versions of Arabic spoken in Morocco and Egypt.
Don’t misunderstand me: Historic, ethnic and linguistic ties are no reason to deny a people self-determination. A few years back, Czechoslovakians decided they’d rather be Czechs and Slovaks. There are no longer Yugoslavs — just Serbians, Croatians, Bosnians, etc.
If Ukrainians (most of them in the western part of the country) want to distance themselves from Russia, to become more like their freer, richer, less corrupt (though increasingly effete) neighbors in the European Union, should they not have that right?
On the other hand, if some Ukrainians (mostly in the east and on the Crimean Peninsula, home of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet) prefer to remain joined at the hip with Putin’s autocratic and unproductive Russia, are they not entitled to make a bad decision?
Most of the media have characterized the Ukrainian crisis as has The Wall Street Journal: “a nationwide movement for wholesale democratic change.” I suspect it’s more about Ukraine’s crumbling economy and conflicted identity than democracy, though the available data leave room for uncertainty.
Perhaps the turmoil is best understood as a belated aftershock of the Cold War. In 1989, the Berlin Wall fell (actually it was dismantled by hand; I have a chunk here in my office) and two years later the Soviet Union crumbled.
The Baltic States — Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania — had remained essentially Western despite years of Soviet and Russian occupation. They quickly became parliamentary democracies and members of the European Union. Muslim-majority (and not Islamist) Azerbaijan has benefited from petroleum resources and political stability. But other former Soviet republics have been sinking into authoritarianism, poverty or chaos.
Twenty years ago, Ukraine’s major foreign policy objective was integration with the EU. Among the reasons little progress was made: Ukrainians failed to meet the EU’s economic and other standards, the EU was nervous about expanding into the heart of what had been Soviet space, and the U.S., under both Democratic and Republican administrations, has been reluctant to get deeply involved. (Recall George H. W. Bush’s “chicken Kiev” speech of 1991.)
Last fall, just as Ukraine was about to sign an “association agreement” with the EU, Putin offered Yanukovych’s government a $15 billion bailout — if he’d put his pen back in his pocket. That was the spark that ignited the recent explosions.
I’d wager that Putin is willing to spend a lot more to keep Ukraine within Russia’s orbit. He may be willing to commit troops as well — as he did in Chechnya and Georgia.
Ukraine could descend into civil war. Or Ukrainians could choose, in a referendum, whether to integrate into Europe, reinforce their ties with Russia, split into separate eastern and western states, or attempt to sort out their differences in some other way.
But expect Putin to set “red lines” and do whatever is necessary to enforce them. He won’t ask permission of Obama, the EU, or the U.N. You shouldn’t need to look into his eyes to see that.
Clifford D. May is president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a policy institute focusing on national security, and a foreign affairs columnist for The Washington Times.
WarSclerotic 
February 27, 2014 at 1:09 PM
Bush the 2nd president-his comments about seeing Putin’s soul etc,clearly demonstrates the moron that inhabited the white house for 8 years.And undoubtedly will go down in history as the president that loss so much treasure and precious blood of Amrican troops for the corruptive aims of his administration’s henchmen,all under the guise of nation building and the fight against terrorism.Today,the pentagon is in the process of manpower reduction as a consequence of the monies squandered in the so called nation building policy of this moronic president that compared Putin to Jefferson.Now more than ever is when the U.S. militarily should be strong because of the challenges of the Facist Chinese and Iran,and of course Russia.But America is broke,and must avoid wars as much as it can.
February 27, 2014 at 3:58 PM
Bush could have done so much for this country, but sold out. Still, he had a lot more potential than that blasphemy we now have allow to live in the White House.
My only differing view is that of a ‘broke’ America. The fact is, the federal government is broke, but doesn’t know it and doesn’t give a damn. The U.S. Treasury commands a bank account that has no overdraft limits. Money from this account(s) magically appears since their checks are never dishonored. So a broke government continues to spend in spite of itself while buying more votes for it’s power structure through entitlement programs and ignored laws designed to protect our borders. Come to think of it, they are morally broke as well…and don’t know it. Anyway, the bottom line here is that federal government spending policies are breaking the bonds of the U.S. Constitution and are only limited by the specter of inflation.
On the other hand, the people are far from being broke. The economy is still chugging along and making gains in spite of the government’s policies. This alone is a testament to hard working Americans everywhere. Consider the fact that California, a state of fiscal irresponsibility and democratic rule, commands an economy bigger the Russia’s. We WILL work our way out of this mess.
February 27, 2014 at 4:08 PM
i have added to that john below
February 27, 2014 at 4:12 PM
no 25 words red line here
Smile !
February 27, 2014 at 4:15 PM
Took my medication today. 🙂
February 27, 2014 at 6:35 PM
I wish that it was possible to share a good bottle of whiskey whit you !
February 27, 2014 at 6:54 PM
share one with me i live very close to all the island distillery’s we do a sailing trip to them in the summer every 2 years they give you a free case for sailing to them,and they dont don’t give you the cheap shit ether there own reserve usually
February 27, 2014 at 9:12 PM
Took a tour of the Jack Daniels Distillery years ago. The tour ended in the hospitality room. By then, I was ready for a shot, but no can do. The distillery is located in a dry county. Go figure.
February 27, 2014 at 4:04 PM
Your mostly right there,but when it comes to your last sentence it shows ho little knowledge you have of western military,1 expect russia to get a real kicking 2 downsizeing is to do with technological advances more than saving cash its possible to take russias airforce out without a single combat pilots flight RCAV hypersonic bomber fleet,then ther is global strike and i could go on and on x37b x 39 x40 i cant print the others,russia and china can now be liquidated from space in a few seconds and will be if they become more than a pain in the butt,3 america is broke that is the biggest misconception of all,America is not broke,America is now the world largest oil and gas producer and will soon became the largest net exporter,it is a temporary cash flow problem,america is in a transitional period move on from the military industrial complex of the 20th century
February 27, 2014 at 4:21 PM
My military experience is a bit outdated, I’ll admit. Let’s see….1969 or so. I do try to keep up, but I learned a long time ago to never underestimate the enemy. Maybe that’s why the U.S. military credo is that of always using overwhelming force in it’s campaigns.
February 27, 2014 at 4:27 PM
you went to nam, respect
February 27, 2014 at 5:32 PM
Actually, I was in Army ROTC preparing for service after graduation. The lottery kicked in and I pulled a high number that was never reached by our local draft board. Knew a lot of guys who were drafted however. Also knew a few who didn’t return. Got a world of respect for those who did go, no matter how crappy the politics were for being there in the first place. (Shove it Jane Fonda, John Kerry, and all the other asshats that gave Charlie the will to fight on and kill more of our brave young soldiers….F*CK YOU VERY MUCH).
Getting a little emotional here boss.
February 27, 2014 at 6:05 PM
I was number 5 in the lottery…
I lucked out that 1972 was the year Nixon killed the draft.
Of course, the Israeli Navy came much later in 1981.
February 27, 2014 at 6:02 PM
your right to be emotional you were really lucky
February 27, 2014 at 6:39 PM
I was number 219. Our local draft board got up to 180 that year.
February 27, 2014 at 8:59 PM
Graduated college in June 69, immediately was issued my 1A classification, and waited to be drafted. Lived in the Bronx, lots of guys. Made it to October (lottery number picking) without getting my subway token in the mail…..got 344. Nervously waited until the lottery started in January, 1970. Made it into the lottery….got drunk. Love the Bronx. All my upstate buddies from small towns were drafted by the end of August, 69.
February 27, 2014 at 10:58 PM
so you went norm.All the people i know who went said it was real tough like nothing we have had,i have a few friends in the bronx there scarey but i love them am meant to be going to stay with them this year
February 27, 2014 at 6:51 PM
there is this now,i expect that there is a carrier fleet being readied at this moment Obama knows he cant bluff his way out of this..
US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel urged Russia not to take action on Ukraine that “could be misinterpreted.” Speaking Thursday at the NATO defense ministers’ conference in Brussels, he laid stress on the strong US support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty “at this delicate time” and the need to “avoid provocations.” Hagel said his staff was trying to set up a phone call to Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu. Earlier, he spoke with Ukrainian officials. Asked by reporters whether the US planned practical steps in response to Russia’s combat alert, Hagel declined to reply.
February 27, 2014 at 9:03 PM
Obama is doing nothing but BS and Putin is going to embarrass him.
February 27, 2014 at 9:36 PM
I,am this time not so sure, after reading the nato statement and action will fall exactly right in my earlier prediction about the future of the world. the new world would be better.
February 27, 2014 at 9:39 PM
Putin will need to work with NATO to resolve this. No shots will be fired, serves no one.
February 27, 2014 at 10:45 PM
your F**king kidding mate its like there readying for ww 3 here
February 27, 2014 at 10:54 PM
Justice, lets hope in this case at least that I’m right and you’re wronge…