Washington must strike Iran, not bargain with it
Israel Hayom | Washington must strike Iran, not bargain with it.
Prof. Efraim Inbar
The Iranians have once again been successful in pushing the West into prolonged negotiations over their nuclear program.
They have done so almost for two decades, and in the meantime have expanded their uranium enrichment program, worked on weaponization, and built long-range missiles. This indicates without a doubt that they are after a nuclear bomb. The belief and hope that Iran has changed are pathetic. It is obviously interested in removing the economic sanctions imposed on it by the international community, but what Iran is really after is not an agreement, as its gullible interlocutors tend to believe, but rather time. Iran needs time, probably months, to present the world with a fait accompli: a nuclear break-out capability, i.e., the infrastructure to assemble a nuclear arsenal within weeks.
Unfortunately, much of the world, including the U.S., is going along with the Iranian procrastination, failing to realize that Iran is a strategic problem of no comparable regional or global significance. No other issue in the Middle East or elsewhere around the globe can have as negative an impact on world affairs: nuclear proliferation, the prices of a strategic commodity like oil, international terrorism, and the global stature of the U.S.
Allowing Iran to go nuclear or acquire break-out capability will bring about nuclear proliferation at least in the immediate region. States such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey are unlikely to stay behind, which will bring about a nuclear multipolar Middle East — a strategic nightmare in this volatile region. A nuclear Iran is very different from a nuclear North Korea, whose geopolitical environment already includes two nuclear states — China and Russia — to keep it in check. A nuclear Iran will unquestionably bring about the demise of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, a stabilizing factor on the international scene.
A nuclear Iran will affect the global political energy economy. Iran’s location along the Persian Gulf and the Caspian Sea — the “energy ellipse” where about 75 percent of the oil reserves are situated — gives it a handle on the price of oil, a strategic commodity. The oil-producing states in the region will inevitably have to consider the desires of an intimidating, nuclear Iran. Iraq is already an Iranian satellite, and Azerbaijan and other Central Asian countries may follow suit. A nuclear Iran might also become more aggressive and take over the eastern province of Saudi Arabia that is mostly populated by Shiites and holds most of the kingdom’s oil. While it is true that Iran and other oil-producing states cannot desist from selling oil, Tehran will be able to decide to whom to sell and at what price.
A nuclear Iran will be emboldened to be more active as a sponsor of international terror. Its terrorist infrastructure is global, with active and dormant cells in Latin American, North America, Europe, Asia, and of course the Middle East. Iranian tentacles have been observed activating terrorist activities all over the world.
An Iran in possession of long-range missiles armed with nuclear bombs could pose a real threat to many countries within a range of over 2,500 kilometers (1,600 miles). This radius includes Eastern Europe, the whole Middle East, Central Asia, and the Indian subcontinent. Iran is working assiduously to extend the range of its missiles to hit North America, as well. Hoping for deterrence to be fully effective in the Iranian case is an irresponsible response.
Finally, Iran is the supreme test of American credibility in world affairs. After saying so many times that a nuclear Iran is unacceptable, allowing the radical regime of the mullahs to acquire a nuclear bomb or develop a nuclear break-out capability will be a devastating blow to American prestige. Today the U.S. is probably at its lowest ebb in the region. Friends and foes alike are bewildered by the policies of the Obama administration, seeing an extremely weak president who seems to be clueless about Middle East international politics. The American willingness to allow Iran enrichment capabilities and readiness to strike a bargain with Tehran is mind-boggling in this part of the world.
At this stage, after several years of confused and misguided American behavior, the only thing that can salvage U.S. influence in the region is an American military strike on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Without exception, Middle Eastern leaders have a power politics prism to international affairs, and have little patience towards the liberal-inspired speeches of U.S. President Barack Obama, who has become a laughingstock among Middle Easterners. Therefore, the only thing that can win their respect is a muscular response on Washington’s part. This is what America’s allies in the region need and want. They understand, much better than Washington, the current regional realities and dangers of a nuclear Iran.
A military strike is also needed to prevent a nuclear Iran from destabilizing international order. If Washington wants to prevent nuclear proliferation, preserve stability in the energy sector, minimize the risks of international terror, and reduce the nuclear threat from a fanatic regime, it must live up to its obligations as a superpower and the leader of the free world. Going along with the delaying tactics of Iran is dangerous and irresponsible.
Prof. Efraim Inbar, director of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, is a professor of political studies at Bar-Ilan University and a fellow at the Middle East Forum.
WarSclerotic 
November 1, 2013 at 4:11 PM
Dream on Inbar.
Again the please-America-won’t-you-save-us nebbishkeit. When the Jews were about to conquer the land of Israel Moses sent spies to scout out the land. Most came back with a defeatist report, saying that there were giants in the land and we are just grasshoppers comparatively. This is the same mentality that now says that Obama will do ANYTHING to stop Iran and we must rely on him. It’s always we must depend on the “giants” of Washington. We are just grasshoppers, Lilliputians, pigmies compared to them. This is also the mentality that drives both Netanyahu and Yaalon. Bibi has been talking about bombing Iran for years. Now Iran is one month from bomb grade uranium and once the Arak reactor starts, which can make plutonium for a bomb, it can’t be destroyed without a Chernobyl-like disaster. Still the please-America-save-us garbage.
We are exactly where we were with Chamberlain, only Netanyahu is all bark and no bite and should have bombed Iran ages ago and instead is just begging now for sanctions. The bark has turned into a meow. Here is exactly what is happening now, and today’s Obama AND ALSO BIBI who is all talk and no action and does NOTHING to go to war with Iran.
Sound familiar? It is EXACTLY what is happening now. Obama is Chamberlain and Bibi is the head of Czechoslovakia caving in under pressure and giving up the Sudetenland, in this case the West Bank and releasing terrorists. Just look at Yaalon’s statement the other day that we must not sweep Iran under the rug. Wow! That’s really tough, Mr. Defense Minister! Years ago Yaalon said Iran must be dealt with “at the diplomatic level” and he still hasn’t changed. So Bibi starts making noise about enrichment again while the IDF last week asked for V-22 Osprey tilt rotor aircraft and now, this week, Chuck Hagel agreed to fast track six Ospreys for Israel, SIX BIG ONES! The IDF said they wanted them for defense against Syria and Iran. These planes are nothing and they won’t be delivered for another two years. Wow! So now Israel will wait two years on stopping Iran even though ISIS says Iran will have bomb grade uranium in a month or less.
Again, the moment Israel tries to mobilize to strike Iran, Iran may not know but US intelligence will, especially since US intelligence has major operations right inside Israel. They will warn Obama who will warn Iran. Therefore, the first blow must involve almost no mobilization. Only an EMP is up to the task, one EMP on Iran could be easily overlooked by the US until too late, even if they see it flying there is too little time to stop it. If Iran gets hit with an EMP the rest of the war will be easy because Iran will be paralyzed which will allow easy bombing of every Iranian nuclear site with no resistance. One EMP makes the whole of Iran a sitting duck. There is EXACTLY ZERO CHANCE that Bibi will use an EMP on Iran. We can’t do THAT! What would people sayay! The giants of Washington wouldn’t approve!
Again, here is the EMP, the only weapon that can paralyze Iran with no warning for Obama because it can get the job done with a single missile, no mobilization for the US to spot.
November 1, 2013 at 4:48 PM
“We are exactly where we were with Chamberlain, only Netanyahu is all bark and no bite and should have bombed Iran ages ago and instead is just begging now for sanctions. The bark has turned into a meow. Here is exactly what is happening now, and today’s Obama AND ALSO BIBI who is all talk and no action and does NOTHING to go to war with Iran.”
Could not agree more. Once I thought Netanyahu was a man of his word,the Israeli Churchill, now he just looks like a flaccid manipulator who’s all used up!!
November 1, 2013 at 7:02 PM
One thing to keep in mind.
The US has 18 Trident Nuke armed Subs and 10 Aircraft carriers that could be used to punish/utterly destroy the perp. In other words EMP is not a strategy that leaves the attacker any future.
November 1, 2013 at 7:20 PM
“The US Navy has a total of 18 Ohio-class submarines which consist of 14 ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs), and four cruise missile submarines (SSGNs). The SSBN submarines are also known as “Trident” submarines, and provide the sea-based leg of the US’s nuclear triad. Each SSBN submarine is armed with up to 24 Trident II submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM). Each SSGN is capable of carrying 154 Tomahawk cruise missiles with either conventional or nuclear warheads, plus a complement of Harpoon missiles to be fired through their torpedo tubes.”
November 1, 2013 at 7:46 PM
We may have to save them for China…now this:
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/oct/31/inside-china-nuclear-submarines-capable-of-widespr/
November 1, 2013 at 8:18 PM
Wonderful world we live in. We are arming ourselves to the teeth against ourselves. Seems to me the human race is insane!!!
November 2, 2013 at 12:40 AM
You are right.At some point in time the USA will have to engage the Chinese and the Russians as well.It could be simultaneously.We have squandered blood and treasury in Iraq and with the Aghans.With Iran it will have to be a very lethal blow and quick.No bogging down.Put them in the stone age period.I have faith in Netayahu that he will do the right thing for his people and country along with the other jewish leaders.It is a matter of survival and at the same time curtail the spread of nukes in the world.I am sure there will be innocent Iranians that will die in the course of the strikes against their country.Hopefully it will be minimal.With this said-at some point Israel will have to deal with the palestinians in an equitable manner so that peace can be had.