Braced for imminent nuclear accord with Iran, US pulls away from military option, IDF stays on the ready
( “Hence the IDF’s request for a supplemental NIS3.5bn (app. $1bn) defense budget this week…” Gents, this is happening. – JW )
Israel’s high command, working on the assumption that an American-Iranian nuclear accord is near its final stage, plans to keep in place advanced preparations for a unilateral military strike on Iran’s nuclear program into 2014 – hence the IDF’s request for a supplemental NIS3.5bn (app. $1bn) defense budget this week.
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debkafile’s military sources report exclusively that the main body of the accord is essentially complete. All the same, President Barack Obama plans to announce before Christmas that only partial agreement has been achieved and negotiations will continue.
He will be cagey in public – partly because not all parts of the accord have been finalized, although the pace of US-Iranian negotiations have been accelerated, and partly to avoid coming clean on the full scope of the deal with Tehran.
The US-Iranian talks are being held at three levels:
1. American and Iranian diplomats and nuclear experts are discussing the technical aspects of the accord in Vienna. Some of these meetings – but not all – take place at International Atomic Energy Agency headquarters in the city.
The talks in Vienna between IAEA chief Yukiya Amano and Iranian deputy foreign minister Abbas Araqchi on Oct. 29-30 in Vienna were held to review items already approved between the American and Iranian delegations. It remained for the two officials to consider how to integrate those understandings in the future IAEA inspections routine.
Araqchi reported he had brought new proposals to the talks, saying they were productive. Amano said more cautiously: “I am very hopeful that we can come out with a good result.”
2. Secretary of State John Kerry and Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Wendy Sherman, who is the senior US negotiator, are handling the second level of direct negotiations opposite Foreign Minister Mohammed Zarif and his deputy Abbas Araqchi.
Because of his direct involvement, Kerry sounded unusually impatient Monday October 28, when he said, “Some have suggested that somehow there’s something wrong with giving diplomacy a chance. We will not succumb to those fear tactics and forces that suggest otherwise.”
He did not name Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, but clearly lashed out against what he regards as the prime minister’s “fear tactics.” Neither did he admit how much progress had been made in the direct US line with Tehran.
3. The third level deals with sanctions. It is run by officials of the US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, which oversees the sanctions regime, and senior staff from President Hassan Rouhani’s bureau.
They are working to determine which sanctions will be lifted and at which stage of the negotiations.
This process aims at lifting decision-making on sanctions out of the hands of Congress and transferring it to this secret negotiating mechanism. By this means, President Obama hopes not only to thwart Congressional calls for tighter sanctions against Iran, but also to forestall Netanyahu’s efforts to this end.
On Tuesday October 29, a group of Jewish leaders was invited to the White House to meet with members of the National Security Council for an update on the Iran negotiations and a bid to defuse tensions with them and Israel. But none of the above information about the accelerated progress of a US-Iranian accord was released to them.
WarSclerotic 
October 31, 2013 at 12:17 PM
“Braced for imminent nuclear accord with Iran, US pulls away from military option, IDF stays on the ready”
Appying the usual caution when reading Debka, the above core message is entirely plausible and believable.
October 31, 2013 at 12:59 PM
The IDF doesn’t need this amount of money for triggering/preparing the Iranian operation. The money for this operation were deposed in the bank a long time ago and the operation doesn’t need any further preparations. This sum of money is necessary for the army in general and it will always be. No such immediate operational conclusions may be drawn for this debka entry. The Iranian operation is on the IDF desk already for years, the pieces are in place for a long time. What is needed now is not money, but a single decision.
October 31, 2013 at 1:19 PM
I don’t agree, Luis…
While all supplies may be in place for the operation, replacing them after the operation may indeed be what the supplemental request is for.
I’m always ready to disagree with debka, but this time they may actually be on to something.
October 31, 2013 at 1:42 PM
No problem, Joseph. However, is obvious for me that they are way out of the trail with this one.
October 31, 2013 at 4:04 PM
Maybe the IDF is preparing for Obama’s temper tantrum if and when unilaterial action is taken against Iran. Our Community Organizer-in-Chief will surely move to punish Israel by halting military aid at a time when Israel will need to replenish it’s weapons inventory. Obummer is quite predictable.
October 31, 2013 at 1:46 PM
Israel reported to discuss joining nuke-free Mideast conference
After deflecting pressure to join treaty, Israel said to have met quietly with other Arab states in Switzerland on a possible change of stance
http://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-reported-to-discuss-joining-nuke-free-mideast-conference/
October 31, 2013 at 2:14 PM
Very good article. However, my instinct is saying to me that even though might be a certain Israeli involvement in all this, that will not happen. Rather smoke and mirrors from the Israeli part to put certain foes to sleep. We cannot give the Israel gates keys to the ”nice” Arab states, which is the meaning of giving up our unconventional arsenal for some piece of paper.
Israel has its arsenal allegedly for many years and no countries in the region made any attempt to get nuclear nukes, but : Saddam(Iraq), Khadafi(Libya), Assad(Syria) and Iran. Take a close look at those leaders and their countries. They are made of a special material : dictators or fanatics or both. Where is Saddam today? Where is Khadafi now? How Assad is doing? And ”what’s go on in Iran?” All those regimes who have feared for their stability want a nuke, just like that, for a rainy day.
Of course that now, after all the relevant players have failed conclusively to eliminate the Iranian nuclear program, other players in the region want badly a candy nuke, for feeling themselves been threatened by a Shiite regime nuclear armed.
This is the real crime of 0bama’s regime and his legacy, too. The triggering of a nuclear race in the middle east, and this is why Israel must urgently fix the problem.
October 31, 2013 at 2:21 PM
DT….
Amazing!
I’m not going to post that story, though. I am 100% convinced that it is pure unadulterated disinfo.
There is NOTHING that will induce Israel to give up its “last chance to save the Jews” weapon.
It is truly the only ultimate protection that we have in this hypocritical, violent and antisemitic neighborhood and world.
October 31, 2013 at 3:51 PM
So, I was right.
October 31, 2013 at 4:32 PM
Not a problem. I read it as disinfo too but interesting article nonetheless.
What I see in this article is certain Arab nations siding closer to Israel over certain current events.
October 31, 2013 at 5:23 PM
True.
October 31, 2013 at 3:43 PM
“This process aims at lifting decision-making on sanctions out of the hands of Congress and transferring it to this secret negotiating mechanism. By this means, President Obama hopes not only to thwart Congressional calls for tighter sanctions against Iran, but also to forestall Netanyahu’s efforts to this end.”
The above Debka claim is clearly confirmed by the following article.
The Washington Free Beacon: New Democratic Plan on Iran: Wait Four Months
http://freebeacon.com/new-democratic-plan-on-iran-wait-four-months/
“…A bill sponsored by Democrats in Congress seeks to establish a panel to “review, assess, and make recommendations with respect to the current United States strategy toward the threats posed by the Government of Iran,” according to a draft copy of the bill obtained by the Washington Free Beacon…”
“…The Iran Strategy Assessment Panel would have 120 days to travel, discuss, and investigate the prospect of passing new sanctions on Iran, according to the bill.
Congressional insiders and experts say that the proposal unnecessarily duplicates Iran legislation already passed in the House and that it would give the regime more than enough time to achieve an undetectable nuclear breakout capability.
The strategy panel would be composed of five experts who will be appointed by the president no later than 30 days after the bill’s passage. Officials from the Defense Department, Department of State, and Obama administration would be included in the process.
The panel will then have up to 120 days to examine current U.S. policy towards Iran and “provide the president and Congress with recommendations for changes to the sanctions regime that will increase the likelihood of a peaceful resolution to Iran’s nuclear activities,” according to the bill.
The panel will also review U.S. strategy “toward the threats posed by the Government of Iran and make recommendations,” the bill states….”
Yep, this should give Obavez the ‘flexibility’ he needs.
This man is becoming more and more dangerous by his deceptions.
I quote Joop Klepzeiger “Bibi watch your back!”.
October 31, 2013 at 3:48 PM
Ladies and gentlemen. We are now in the endgame.
October 31, 2013 at 5:35 PM
“Ladies and gentlemen. We are now in the endgame.”
Really? Please define endgame. I’d like to know what’s going to happen!
October 31, 2013 at 5:50 PM
First, our beloved and wise friend, we’ll rather want to read a fresh analyze of yours regarding the actual situation. We also want to respond with only one , unconnected phrase to your deep insight of the situation. We want to enjoy, too. Don’t be an egoist. Give us a chance to be the Joker, here, too. Please, John. Enlighten us.
Hit us with your deep understanding.
October 31, 2013 at 6:06 PM
Yeah…
I could use some enlightenment from somebody.
I don’t recall EVER feeling more clueless than I do about this.
October 31, 2013 at 6:14 PM
Israel is in a very difficult place on many different levels, geographically(Israel is about the size of N.J. and is surrounded by Islamic armies armed to the teeth.)Politically, as much of the world is trying to stay Israel’s hand militarily. Economically as any attack would most surely be followed up with sanctions. Finally realistically as surely a counter attack could kill many Israeli citizens and may risk the whole country. Israel should have acted years ago but did not.
Israel will do nothing and hope for the best! That’s my story and I’m sticking to it! “It is written”
October 31, 2013 at 6:45 PM
Wow!
October 31, 2013 at 6:15 PM
The fact is that nobody knows exactly what’s going to happen but something big is building. Yes its been building for years but just recently Its got to the ‘could pop anytime’ stage.
October 31, 2013 at 6:22 PM
I for one would be thrilled if Israel FINALLY pulled the trigger. I just think it’s to late….
October 31, 2013 at 6:32 PM
I can answer that pretty quick.
The final moves are played now.
These moves will decide if we will have a nuclear Iran.
Obavez will make this possible.
Israel is the only one who can stop this now if it doesn’t wait too long.
To add to the chaos I will ask: what if Khamenei dies?
No, i’m not the only one who asks the question.
http://www.aei-ideas.org/2013/10/what-khamenei-dies-what-next/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+aei-ideas%2Fposts+(AEIdeas+Posts)
October 31, 2013 at 7:43 PM
Khamenie dying and a chaotic succession with the extremists losing is about the only thing I can think of that might delay and ultimately eliminate the need for Israel to attack.
This is where our God, the god of Abraham might be able to help us. That is, if it is his wish that we don’t fight.
His will be done…
October 31, 2013 at 7:53 PM
The world could use a miracle about now.
October 31, 2013 at 7:59 PM
Amen, brother Steve…
October 31, 2013 at 7:45 PM
artaxes….
It got put into “pending” because of the multiple links. I was learning Talmud with my father on Skype and only got to it now.
October 31, 2013 at 8:12 PM
i’m really not unhappy about that ‘glitch’.
Man, you are blessed to have your father still around.
May you enjoy this blessing for many, many years.
Nothing is impossible for God.
May He bless all of us.
October 31, 2013 at 9:20 PM
Times of Israel: Iranian reports say supreme leader’s health worsening
Sorry, can’t provide link because of my crappy phone. Just google it.
That explains why the basij thugs are holding their massive drill now and not in Jan. as they usually do.