Israel issues warning on report on Iran bomb
Israel issues warning on report on Iran bomb.
A new report that says Iran may need as little as a month to produce enough uranium for a nuclear bomb is further evidence for why Israel will take military action before that happens, an Israeli defense official said Friday.
A new report that says Iran may need as little as a month to produce enough uranium for a nuclear bomb is further evidence for why Israel will take military action before that happens, an Israeli defense official said Friday.
“We have made it crystal clear – in all possible forums, that Israel will not stand by and watch Iran develop weaponry that will put us, the entire Middle East and eventually the world, under an Iranian umbrella of terror,” Danny Danon, Israel’s deputy defense minister told USA TODAY.
Iran is developing and installing new and advanced centrifuges that enable Iran to enrich even low-enriched uranium to weapons grade uranium needed for nuclear weapons within weeks, Danon said.
“This speedy enrichment capability will make timely detection and effective response to an Iranian nuclear breakout increasingly difficult,” he said.
“Breakout” refers to the time needed to convert low-enriched uranium to weapons-grade uranium. On Thursday, the Institute for Science and International Security issued a report stating that Iran could reach that breakout in as little as one month based in part on Iran’s own revelations about its nuclear program.
“If they use all their centrifuges … and their stockpiles of low- and medium-enriched uranium, that would take one to 1.6 months,” said David Albright, president of the institute and a former inspector for the U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency.
The report comes as the White House is trying to persuade Congress not to go ahead with a bill to stiffen sanctions on Iran to force it to open up its program to inspection. The White House on Thursday invited senate staffers to a meeting on Iran strategy for negotiations that are to resume next month with Iran, it said.
In discussing Iran strategy, President Obama has said Iran is a year or more away from having enough enriched uranium to make a bomb.
Bernadette Meehan, an spokeswoman for the administration’s National Security Council, said the intelligence community maintains “a number of assessments” regarding potential time frames for Iran to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for one weapon or a testable nuclear device.
“We continue to closely monitor the Iranian nuclear program and its stockpile of enriched uranium,” Meehan said.
In the report, Albright said negotiations with Iran should focus on lengthening Iran’s breakout time. ISIS’ analysis is based on the latest Iranian and United Nations reports on Iran’s centrifuge equipment for producing nuclear fuel and its nuclear fuel stockpiles.
Iran’s stockpile of medium-enriched uranium has nearly doubled in a year’s time and its number of centrifuges has expanded from 12,000 in 2012 to 19,000 today.
Sen. Mark Kirk, an Illinois Republican whose Senate Banking Committee is considering legislation to tighten Iran sanctions, said the report shows that Iran is expanding its nuclear capabilities under the cover of negotiations.
“The Senate should move forward immediately with a new round of sanctions to prevent Iran from acquiring an undetectable breakout capability,” he said. The House has already passed legislation to toughen sanctions.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has said his country has no interest in nuclear weapons but that producing nuclear fuel is Iran’s right. However, Iran has blocked international inspectors from some suspected nuclear facilities, making it impossible to determine whether it is complying with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty it has signed.
United Nations inspectors say they have found evidence of a weapons program in violation of Iran’s commitment under the treaty. The USA and the U.N. Security Council have implemented economic sanctions on Iran to persuade it abide by its obligation and verify it is not developing a bomb.
Albright says negotiations with Iran should focus on establishing protocols that lengthen the time period that it would take Iran to convert uranium to weapons grade uranium.
“An essential finding is that they are currently too short and shortening further,” stated the report by the Institute for Science and International Security.
Contributing: Michele Chabin in Jerusalem
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WarSclerotic 
October 26, 2013 at 3:34 PM
Yep, more not working sanctions, and in the meanwhile china gets his oil and pay in gold/yuan and technology.
The west has to act now or it is to late, but are we waiting till Israel will do the dirty work, so we can blame the Jews as usual
October 26, 2013 at 9:45 PM
You all have to look at the big picture. First the west along with Israel have to try and reduce the chemical weapons in Syria to reduce the damage on Israel. Since that is taking to long an Iran speeding up it’s program They are trying the old good cop bad cop scenario. It’s going to be hard but what good is it for Israel to hit Iran if it can’t control the chemical weapons from Syria. Iraq, Afghan, and Syria are all a prelude for a successful confrontation with Iran. I would rather die for peace than have my children grow up in fear. It’s time to act.
October 26, 2013 at 4:20 PM
I find it unbelievable that there are people who think the sanctions are working , iran has come to the bomb under the sanctions, and we push them in the Chinese/ Russia camp, they can not be that stupid , so logically it must be on purpose.
The purpose of a final battle whit china by using Israel as a fuse in the middle east bomb ?
Or are we trying to get china and russia to play along whit the new world order thinkers.so we give them an offer they can not refuse.
In geo politics nothing will surprise me.
But Israel is fucked big time that is clear to me.
October 26, 2013 at 5:50 PM
china gains as usual and judging by the prouducts they export they probably would use radio active oil .after the jews bomb Iranian nuke sites what madness. they are playing end games and we will all pay. ironic bush left our ecomomy in shambles and Obama and company will do the same for our world. democrats pay back at whos expense the common man and women as usual .
October 28, 2013 at 8:49 AM
“We have made it crystal clear in all possible forums”
In other words, please mother may I. Why on earth is the Israeli official even saying this if Israel is really serious? If Israel were serious about bombing Iran they would shut up and just do it. Bibi won’t. Telling everyone instead of doing it is all about trying to get approval and permission. This is nonsense. The world will not approve, the world will not give permission. And Obama will actually warn the Iranians when Israel is coming. He has already leaked secrets about Israel. And he’s a compulsive snoop. Look at how he is snooping on 35 foreign leaders’ phone calls. Bibi too I’m sure. If there is any Israeli mobilization even of almost any minor scale, US intelligence will know about it and tell Obama. Obama will immediately be on the phone with the Iranians to warn them that Israel is coming and tell them that since he did them such a favor, could they please be a little more cooperative in the negotiations. Obama is a compulsive appeaser, sellout and SLEAZE, a horse trader, nothing more. So how can Israel stop Iran if the Iranians are warned? Machiavelli said in “The Prince” that “The harm we do to an adversary must be sufficient that we need not fear his vengeance.” Carl von Clausewitz, the classic military theorist, wrote in “On War,” that the element of surprise is much easier in tactics, small scale operations, than in strategy, large scale operations. Put all this together and the initial Israeli blow must involve almost no mobilization yet must be devastating by itself, so that surprise is not critical in subsequent sorties. Only an EMP, electromagnetic pulse, can do this. Once Iran has been rendered helpless with an EMP attack from a single missile, Israel will be able to go back and take out nuclear sites with impunity at leisure. This is the only way Israel can defeat Iran. But EMP involves setting off a nuclear explosion. The explosion occurs in space, above Iran, and does not cause property damage or kill people. People feel nothing. But the gamma rays from the nuclear blast knock electrons off nitrogen and oxygen atoms in the upper atmosphere, which then rain down and foul up electric circuits and computer chips all over the country. Everything is shorted out, even cars. Iran would need months to replace all that electrical equipment and in the meantime Israel would be free to hit every nuclear site without resistance. This is the only way. Does anybody really believe Netanyahu would do this? Netanyahu has no guts to use any kind of nuclear device. The Bible never says “Thou shalt not kill.” (“Lo taharohg.”) What it says in the Ten Commandments is “Lo teertzach,” “Thou shalt not MURDER.” (Exodus 20.) Because some killing is not murder. Moses himself killed people. Just 2 chapters later, in Exodus 22:1 the Bible says that if a man is crawling under your house to break in, you are allowed to kill him. Commenting on this, the Talmud states in Brachot 58a, “If someone comes to kill you, kill him first.” It follows that if someone comes to NUKE you, nuke him first. Does anybody really believe that this brown nose toady Bibi, who is CONSTANTLY seeking permission from the world for EVERYTHING, is going to use any kind of nuclear device? Never! Bibi should have stopped Iran back when Ahmadinejad was president, because he was openly a Holocaust denier etc. When a child misbehaves, sometimes they need a good spanking. Iran needs a good nuking. If Bibi couldn’t bomb Iran then he certainly won’t now, now that Rouhani is on a charm offensive. After all, what would people say???????!!!!!!! Here is what EMP is all about, which Bibi won’t touch with a ten foot pole:
October 28, 2013 at 10:16 AM
We think you might be correct David, but we pray that you are incorrect and Bibi will either use EMP or use the technology carbon fibre devices ammo which,
after been delivered, can paralyze (shutdown) the electrical power grid, this has been around for many years now, and it is a really good idea.
It was really good information one of the writers on this blog Luis mentioned.
The carbon fibre device ammo does the same thing as EMP without having to use nuclear explosion.
We read some of the things you wrote and you seem to be very knowledgable about nuclear refinement, the science, and the technical details surrounding it.
Do you think the carbon fibre device ammo will work?
And will either The carbon fibre device ammo, or EMP affect nuclear weapons research and production facillities underground, or under mountains, because we think it won’t.
And maybe Iran can still make nuclear explosives of all types and weapons with self contained electricity producing facilities under mountains,
and maybe still shoot the missiles.
What do you think David, and Luis, and any of the other writers.
Thanks, Smiley.
October 28, 2013 at 2:20 PM
That’s interesting, Smiley. I wasn’t up on carbon fibre bombs. I now see an article about it here: http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/dumb/blu-114.htm My point wasn’t to suggest that an EMP (or carbon fibre) bomb would actually destroy deeply buried nuclear sites or the like. I was merely saying that once the country is paralyzed, it becomes much easier for the Israeli air force, cruise missiles, Jerichos and so forth to take out whatever sites Israel wants.
You would still need to use special munitions to hit deeply buried sites and a conventional bunker buster followed by a laser-guided small nuclear device down the “rabbit hole” (about which there have been some reports) would finish off sites like Fordo. There have been claims for years that Israel has a nuclear bunker buster that is one-fifteenth the yield of Hiroshima, which was 13 kilotons. So if you can use a conventional bunker buster to get part way down, and if you can send down that hole the nuclear charge, you can take out even very deep sites with little radiation leaking out. It’s as benign as an underground nuclear test. There have been claims for years that Israel has not 200 but more like 600 atomic weapons, including every type of nuclear weapon known, including hydrogen bombs, neutron bombs, even nuclear land mines. The thought that Israel is walking around with its tail between its legs, paralyzed like Gulliver in Lilliput while possessing such might shows that the real problem is a weak mindset, Bibi’s.
The key is that it all gets much easier if Iran is in a state of paralysis while you’re doing it. There have been dire warnings from anti-Israel agitators that Israeli forces would be decimated by anti-aircraft fire, Russian missile defenses etc. But you would need a lot of carbon fibre bombs, I assume, to hit all the key electric sites. Israel may not have that luxury because it would require a major mobilization that US intelligence would probably be aware of. They would tell Obama and Obama, who is basically a horse trading sleaze, would immediately be on the phone with Iran to warn them the Israelis are coming and do a “deal” with them, stymie the Israeli attack in return for a few lying crumbs of concession by the Iranians. This is what I call APPEASEMAGEDDON.
An EMP can probably do much more with a single missile that Obama might not know about until too late to warn the Iranians.
An interesting point: Israel has several submarines they built jointly with the Germans. (The Germans agreed to this joint venture after getting caught helping Saddam make WMDs and they were chagrined and also needed the work for their depressed shipyards.) Israel, last I heard, has its submarines regularly visiting the coast of Iran. They can carry nuclear cruise missiles. They could be launched and US intelligence would presumably see the launch with the help of X-band radar or AWACS or something but by the time Obama got word and warned the Iranians it would likely be too late for Iran, being that the launch could take place right off the coast of Iran.
I’m not sure what an EMP would do to the submarine, but I would surmise Israel has a solution for that and it depends also on where the sub is actually located at time of launch.
EMP could also be delivered with a single Jericho missile though that would be fired from Israel and give Obama and hence Iran more time to learn what was happening. Even if Iran knew they were about to be hit by a Jericho, Israel has very advanced radar jamming methods and was successful in totally fouling up advanced Russian-made missile defenses when it hit the nuclear plant in Syria in 2007. The Syrians never fired a shot in return and a cyber attack was involved, with cell phones knocked out as far away as Lebanon.
That’s another method, shutting down Iran’s electric grid with a cyber attack, which has also been a subject of speculation, that Israel could and would do that in a war. This could be a modified form of Stuxnet or the like.
EMP also has other advantages. It starts the war with the most aggressive munition, so that what comes after is more of an anti-climax and like a mopping up operation. It makes everything afterward look humdrum, which makes the world feel like the war was basically over at the outset, which reduces world pressure for Israel to stop as the war proceeds, which might take days to get all the sites. The war becomes not an escalation that would get the world hysterical, but a REVERSE escalation. Given all the forces arrayed in Iran and in its behalf, there is every likelihood that Israel might have to use very severe weapons at some point in the war, especially since Iran has missiles that can reach Israel. Better for Israel to use the most severe weapon at the outset in an instant than face attempts to stop Israel as the war progresses. In the words of Machiavelli in “The Prince,” “Commit all cruelties at once, so as not to have to recur to them every day.” (“Recur” – that’s not a typo, that’s the way it’s translated in the popular Luigi Ricci translation.)
Also, how long does a carbon firbre bomb last before electricity can be restored? In the Six Day War of ’67 Israel used a bomb it developed with the French called the Durandahl bomb, which craters airstrips. It doesn’t just make a hole in the tarmac, which can be easily filled in and repaired. The bomb has a rocket and slams into the runway hard, burrows deep down before the bomb goes off several seconds after impact, and creates a cavern under the tarmac which remains mostly intact but sagging, totally unsuitable for an aircraft to drive over. You can’t just shmear some dirt and tar into the hole. You have to excavate the hole which takes a lot of time. Israel wanted to have that kind of delay in enemy attempts to repair their runways.
Same with Iran. I don’t know how long and how extensive carbon fibre bomb damage would be but I suspect that without the kind of air force the US has it would be limited in scope, and duration too maybe. EMP is one bomb and bingo, game over. Israel can keep going back for more sorties with conventional weapons to take out one nuclear site after another, because it would take months to replace all those fried circuits. Iran would be paralyzed during the whole war, sitting duck for every Israeli attack.
A few sites would need nuclear bunker buster bombs. They would be used early on right after the EMP. The rest of the war for days or weeks after could be anti-climactic and leisurely, with no risk to Israeli airmen.
A single carbon fibre bomb might be set off over a power station. That might take out power over a wide area but the actual damage might be only at a single transformer, which Iran might repair. An EMP, in contrast, would fry every electrical component in the country, including at airports, even auxiliary power sites that are not buried underground. You wouldn’t be able to repair all that just by repairing or replacing a single transformer. It would take out even vehicles. That might be useful if Israel needed to paratroop in commandos for special tasks. No working Iranian vehicles makes it kind of hard to mobilize if Israel has commandos on the ground. If you knocked out a power station with carbon fibre that might deprive a wide area of electricity. But cars beyond the actual power station would still be running. So EMP gets all the vehicles in Iran, which paralyzes not just communications but transportation. And for a very long time as circuitry all over has to be replaced. So EMP is the gift that keeps on giving.
My main concern and my main point is simply this: Israel already has everything it needs to bomb Iran. EVERYTHING. But Obama is going to try to stop it, guaranteed. So one single EMP is really advantageous because a single missile could be launched without the kind of mobilization US intel would find easier to detect early on.
One of the things mentioned in some media is that the ideal time for Israel to bomb Iran would be during some routine mobilization such as for a national commemoration of some sort. So the mobilization for an attack on Iran would be concealed in that. But it is still a mobilization and Iran is so paranoid that they are going to be on guard anyway at such a time. And how often does Israel have such mobilizations? An EMP is one lil missile and boom, game over. Every additional attack (of which there would still need to be many) would be an anti-climax, politically and diplomatically a footnote to the main event.
Here, by the way are two videos about Israel’s Dolphin submarines:
And they’re very quiet subs too.
Just incredible that all this ordinance is going to waste. In the words of Shakespeare, “His sword lies where it fell, repugnant to command.”
So what’s keeping Israel from bombing Iran, given that it has EVERYTHING it needs? One thing: BIBI. Just yesterday, Sunday, Netanyahu was saying he could go it alone on Iran. And then, he starts BLATHERING on about all the leaders who are quietly supportive of Israeli military action. In other words, just like Obama couldn’t take military action against Syria without first getting permission from the UN, Europeans and Congress, all of whom said no, Netanyahu is really hiding under the desk unable to act unless others “approve.” Bibi is utterly incapable of taking action independently. He is paralyzed by his worship of the world. It’s STILL all about “mother may I.” On Sunday Bibi even blathered on about how he just spent 7 hours talking to Kerry about Iran. In other words, 7 straight hours of MOTHER MAY I!
If Netanyahu had any REAL inclination to bomb Iran, he would just shut up and do it!
He is also evidently worried that others in his government and cabinet will resist military action. This is because he has no sense of command. He doesn’t have the nerve to tell people what to do on Iran and gives everyone latitude to boss him around on Iran. Just look at how it was reported that Hillary Clinton used to privately brow beat him when she was secretary of state. That was because she found that it WORKED. Bibi ASKED for that by being a sniveling little boy. Clinton COULD SMELL HIS FEAR AND WEAKNESS and that’s why she kept bossing him around. Bibi would go into a blue funk sulking and quivering when Hillary would brow beat him. Hillary hurt his wittle feelings!
Over and over and over Netanyahu talks tough and then does little. Look at how, in his first prime ministership, he agreed to give up Hebron, city where Abraham, Isaac and Jacob are buried in the Biblical Cave of Machpela. When rightists demanded to know why he was giving it up, he said “It was the best deal I could get!” From WHOM? Since when do you need to make a deal to get what is already in your possession?
Imagine if somebody walked up to you and said, “If you give me your wallet, I’ll give you half the money back.” Wow! What a great deal! How can I ever thank you enough!
Just look at the history. He has caved, and caved and caved. He was going to send in ground troops into Gaza and then stopped the war there without doing so. He had everybody convinced he would invade and then stopped with just an air war.
October 29, 2013 at 9:22 AM
Thank you David for your posting, and thank you all who have written on this excellent blog, ( Joop, John – Prophit, Joseph, and everyone else who are just as important). Please if you or the rest of the writers could try to use your excellent writing skills to network with many people and various media sources to make our voices heard, so maybe Bibi will take the military steps needed to get rid of the Iranian nuclear threat, we would really appreciate it.
You guys do excellent writing and postings on this blog, but we need it in many more places with as many people as possible, and having rallies, etc, because we cant defend Israel if we are not ordered by Bibi.
Also please get the Israeli government to STOP giving away anymore Israeli land, its only 50 km East to West, at the widest point, 30 minute drive, and most of it is skinnier, and its only 800 km from North to
South, 8 hour drive, thank you, Smiley.
We cant say who we are, we have rerouted our messaging internet transmission routes, etc.
We might not be alive after this, if we are then we will write, please remember us in your prayers.
May god bless and protect Israel, and all nations of all backgrounds and religions that support Israel, because we are all brothers and sisters that god wanted us to live in peace, with happiness and health, with free choice of religion and not other religions forcing us to convert to their religion.
Thank you, Smiley.