A week after the administration first starting spinning the notion, the idea that the P5+1 talks with Iran made genuine progress toward a nuclear agreement has become conventional wisdom among the chattering classes. Based on little more than atmospherics generated by the Iranian charm offensive, Tehran offered the West nothing new and there is little reason to believe they think they need to give up enriching uranium or shut down their nuclear plants that are bringing them closer to a weapon. If the Obama administration is determined to press ahead toward what will be, at best, an unsatisfactory deal that will, despite the president’s protestations that any accord would be verifiable, lead inevitably to Iranian deceptions and an eventual bomb, then that will leave Israel’s leaders with a terrible dilemma. Their choice would then be between accepting a policy that places their country under an existential threat or breaking with its sole superpower ally and attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities on their own.
To those who claim that Israel can’t or won’t defy the United States, the Council of Foreign Relations’ Uri Sadot answers, think again. In an article published today in Foreign Policy provocatively titled “Rogue State,” Sadot argues that not only is such an outcome thinkable, the precedents already exist for an Israeli decision to fly solo in the face of not only international consensus but American desires.
Given the fact that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has been rattling his rhetorical sabers in the direction of Iran for years, it’s hard to argue with Sadot’s conclusion. As late as just a week ago during an address to the Knesset, Netanyahu once again warned the world that Israel isn’t afraid to act alone if its security is endangered. Should Jerusalem ever be convinced that the U.S. was about to sell it down the river, Netanyahu might well decide to strike Iran. But Sadot is wrong when he claims, as he did in his article, that Israel’s 1981 attack on Iraq’s nuclear reactor at Osirak or the 2007 strike on the nuclear facility that Syria was building tells us much about Israel would or could do against Iran. There are simply no comparisons in terms of size or scale to the challenge awaiting the Israel Defense Forces in Iran or the diplomatic obstacles to such a decision by Netanyahu.
In terms of the Israeli mindset about enemy governments possessing such weapons of mass destruction, Sadot is right to assert that there is little difference between the thinking of Menachem Begin in 1981 and that of Netanyahu today. All the psychobabble thrown around about Begin’s experience of the Holocaust and the influence of Netanyahu’s ideologue father Benzion is mere gloss to the fact that these two men, just like Ehud Olmert in 2007, understand that their primary responsibility is to guard the existence of the State of Israel. Given the stated positions of the Iranian leadership as to their desire to eliminate Israel as well as their sponsorship of terrorist organizations such as Hezbollah, no leader of any sovereign state could afford to take such threats lightly. At the very least, Iranian nuclear capability would destabilize the Middle East (a fact that makes Israel’s Arab neighbors, with the exception of Iranian ally Syria, just as anxious to prevent the ayatollahs from realizing their nuclear ambition).
But the idea that Iraq is a precedent for Iran as far as Israel is concerned is absurd. Iraq had one lone nuclear reactor. It was relatively defenseless and the Iraqis weren’t expecting an attack. The same applies to what happened in Syria in 2007. By contrast, the Iranians have multiple facilities spread throughout their country. Some are in hardened, mountainside bunkers that may be invulnerable to conventional bombs. All are heavily guarded and the Iranians have been on alert for an Israeli strike for years.
It is a matter of some debate as to whether Israel’s vaunted armed forces are even capable of doing significant damage to Iran’s nuclear plants or destroying its stockpile of enriched uranium. Some analysts have always believed that only the United States, with its air bases in the region and aircraft carrier strike groups in the Persian Gulf, could do the job adequately. But even if we assume for the sake of argument that Israel can do it alone and that it could accomplish this task with air strikes alone rather than combining them with commando attacks, what would be required is a sustained campaign of strikes at multiple targets. At best this would strain Israel’s resources. That is especially true when you consider that Israel would also have to be prepared to engage Hezbollah’s terrorist enclave in southern Lebanon since most assume that Iran’s Shiite auxiliaries (who are also fighting for the ayatollahs in Syria) would attack Israel in support of Iran.
What is being discussed here is nothing short of an all-out war, not a surgical strike that could be executed without fear of the cost in terms of casualties or lost planes. While Netanyahu may not shrink from such a decision, his decision will be based on Israel’s current dilemma, not what happened in the past.
As to whether such a decision would endanger Israel’s alliance with the United States, Sadot might well be right that the Jewish state could ride out any turbulence that would result from an Iranian campaign. President Reagan’s affection for Israel overcame the animus toward the Jewish state’s actions expressed by Vice President George H.W. Bush and Defense Secretary Caspar Weinberger. While the Obama administration may not be quite as sympathetic, if anything support for Israel throughout the country and in Congress is far greater today than 32 years ago.
But in 1981, the U.S. was not still conducting a war in the region as the U.S. is doing in Afghanistan. Nor, despite the tilt toward Iraq in its war with Iran, was the U.S. engaged in a diplomatic process with the Saddam Hussein regime as it is now with Tehran. The notion that Israel would attack the Iranians while the Americans are still talking to them strains credulity. Not even Begin would have done such a thing. Nor would Netanyahu deliberately offend President Obama in such a fashion. If Israel ever did attack Iran, it could only happen after the U.S. broke off negotiations with Iran or after Israel could allege that the Islamist regime had violated an agreement it had signed with the West.
“Rogue state” is a title that is more appropriate to a terrorist-sponsor tyranny like Iran than democratic Israel. But there’s little doubt that Israel would act to protect itself even if that required it to act alone. The Iraq and Syrian strikes are far from the only times in its history that the besieged Jewish state has had to ignore international opinion that is heavily influenced by anti-Semitism and opposition to Israel’s existence. But if it does act against Iran, the decision will be based on the far more complex dilemmas of the present day than anything that has happened in the past.
WarSclerotic 
October 23, 2013 at 7:37 AM
The idea that many of these liberal appeasers like this author keep putting forward – that Netanyahu can’t act as long as “talks” are taking place is pure BS.
Besides even the left knows these talks have never gone anywhere and never will. Those who don’t realize this are delusional.
Israel will do what it needs to survive and we won’t have to wait much longer…..
October 23, 2013 at 9:01 AM
We hope you are correct Mark and Israel will get rid of the Iranian nuclear threat in 1 or 2 months. This whole situations has become so dangerous for Israel, with just 1 or 2 nuclear suicide bombers with nuclear material surgically implanted, could wipe out half of Israel, since its only 50km wide at the widest, and mostly skinnier, and 800km from North to South. Other muslim countries will also go nuclear and will send nuclear suicide bombers, some will get caught, and as in the past some of them wont get caught.
Thanks, Smiley.
October 23, 2013 at 10:15 AM
Yeah, like Pakistan sends nuclear underwear bombers every day, since they have nukes. *irony off*
October 23, 2013 at 11:02 AM
We wish you are right, with what you said about Pakistani nuclear underwear bombers.
Iran is not Pakistan.
Iran sent 100, 000 – 300,000 children to walk in the Iraqi Iranian minefield, and brainwashed the children to believe that they will go to heaven when they blow up, and the plastic green pendant, with holy words on it, on their necklace is their key to get in.
Israel was the first country to be terrorised by suicide bombers, blowing themselves up and murdering innocent children, women, men, grandparents, the rest of the world thought it would never happen to them, then they were being blown up by suicide bombers.
Just as Russia was the other day. Or the US – 911 suicide killing and destroying the twin towers, England, France, Bulgaria, etc.
So the suicide bombers can be from many countries other then Iran.
And yes Mark, terrorists have been caught with nuclear material that was surgically implanted in their bodies WE DIDNT SAY UNDERWEAR.
Suicide bombers dont care where the explosives are, they are still going to explode, and if they chicken out pressing the trigger, then remote detonation happens.
October 23, 2013 at 9:01 AM
Before a couple of days, when Sadot article was published here, we claimed the same arguments regarding that the Iraq operation cannot be compared with the Iranian operation, and we have explained that in details. The readers are invited to compare. And, with all the humbleness that I am capable, the conclusion is clear.
October 23, 2013 at 9:15 AM
To Smiley and Mark : First of all, salutations. And now, the bottom line: Iran must be taken down not because its nuclear program, but because its aspirations which are the liquidation of the Israeli State.
When a regional power goes public and make declarations like ” we’ll wipe Israel off the map”, then, such a declaration is no longer a simple figure of style. I’ll tell you right now and right here what that declaration means. It means war, because it is a declaration of war.
And if they wished war, then war it is. Israel has to see itself as being under constant threat from Iran, without any connections with the nuclear aspect and Israel has to act as such. This is the reason that we think that the actual strategy of the Israeli leadership is totally wrong, looking for ”sanctions” to be implemented and continuing the boring opera of making threats. I simply cannot believe that the stupidity, the blindness and the lack of the leadership are so high in our country, right now. Running like a beaten kid after 0bama & comp, grabbing his coat and yelling all the time: ”look at those nasty Iranians! do something to them! beat’em!”
This parody – tragedy must be liquidated. So must be Iran, by the Israeli Armed Forces.
October 23, 2013 at 9:23 AM
Dear Luis, and all writers of this blog, we understood what you Luis wrote the other day, and he made a great point. The technology carbon fibre devices ammo which, after been delivered, can paralyzed (shutdown) the electrical power grid, has been around for many years now, and it is a really good idea.
What we were trying to point out, is that most writers on this blog, want Israel to get rid of the Iranian nuclear threat, that threatens Israel, and its Muslim neighbouring countries. And if Iran even appears to have achieved nuclear weapons ability, then Israel will have to worry about all the muslim countries getting nuclear explosives, and many of them will try to use them againts Israel.
We mentioned that the Iranian spy that was caught recently in Israel, has snuck in and out of Israel many times for many years, so other spies and their accomplices can also do that.
We also mentioned that Muslim terrorists have been caught in countries other then Israel, and they had nuclear material surgically implanted in their bodies.
So Israel might be attacked with nuclear suicide bombers, and if spies and their accomplices are sneaking in and out of Israel, then those nuclear suicide bombers will get in also, some of them will be caught and some won’t, just like previous suicide bombers that murdered Israelis.
Israel is only 50 km wide at some parts, and most of it is skinner, which is about 30 minute drive east to west. Its only 8 hour drive South to North if there was a straight road. Its a beautiful country, but very tiny, that could be sadly 50% destroyedi or more with 1 or 2 nuclear suicide bombers.
We only want the writers on this blog to use their great writing skills to contact other people, network, and get networking with as many people as possible, and get everybody doing that. Get everyone to write and send emails to Israeli and international media, and youtube info videos.
Maybe people should get email petitions going, group meetings, rallies, etc.
Look not everybody can be in the combat division of the Israeli army or any army, but there are computer programers in the Israeli army programing division writing virus codes to disable Israels enemies computers or nuclear plants.
There are many great writers on this blog, and its great many people here are writing, but besides writing here, we need to rally together in the streets of Israel and abroad, contact all the media, and if nothing else, then at least hopefully it would be a positive effect on Bibi, to stop talking, and take out Irans nuclear program now.
After the world signs a deal with Iran, Russia, and many other countries will deliver many types of high tech weapons to Iran, either public or secret sales, and world satellites will be monitoring Israel more intensily then they are now, so a sneak attack by Israel will be practically impossible.
And if Iran gets nuclear explosives capabilities, other muslim countries will also, and the nuclear suicide bombers attacks on Israel will be from many countries.
People shouldnt be complacent and keep procrastinating and thinking we will take care of the Iranian nuclear program later, look how long Israel has done this, and look how bad it got.
Israel can take care of the Iranian nuclear program now, or all of Israels enemies will get nuclear explosives, and use them on Israel, and everyone needs to stop talking and do things to get Bibi to take out Irans nuclear program militarily now, no one else will.
May God Bless Israel.
Thank you, Smiley.
October 23, 2013 at 11:05 AM
We wish you are right, with what you said about Pakistani nuclear underwear bombers.
Iran is not Pakistan.
Iran sent 100, 000 – 300,000 children to walk in the Iraqi Iranian minefield, and brainwashed the children to believe that they will go to heaven when they blow up, and the plastic green pendant, with holy words on it, on their necklace is their key to get in.
Israel was the first country to be terrorised by suicide bombers, blowing themselves up and murdering innocent children, women, men, grandparents, the rest of the world thought it would never happen to them, then they were being blown up by suicide bombers.
Just as Russia was the other day. Or the US – 911 suicide killing and destroying the twin towers, England, France, Bulgaria, etc.
So the suicide bombers can be from many countries other then Iran.
And yes Mark, terrorists have been caught with nuclear material that was surgically implanted in their bodies WE DIDNT SAY UNDERWEAR.
Suicide bombers dont care where the explosives are, they are still going to explode, and if they chicken out pressing the trigger, then remote detonation happens.
October 23, 2013 at 12:11 PM
October 23, 2013 at 3:32 PM
While this may be a convincing documentary, converting the USA to an Islamic state is NOT going to happen. To say so flies in the face of millions of honest, patriotic Americans who would rather revolt than succumb to Islam. If an Islamic state is what Islam is striving for here in the USA, then I say they have a hell of fight coming. The fact is, they have a better chance of converting Israel….which is, in my opinion, no chance at all.
So many times I’ve heard, “….doing so will inflame the Arab street.” I say, doing this in the USA will inflame the American street and it will not be a pretty sight. Fortunately, we have safeguards to head off such a thing in advance. It’s called the U.S. Constitution, not sharia. Our battle starts there. Our battle is with those who ignore the Constitution, a battle that will never end.
Keeping the USA inline with the intentions of it’s founding fathers will render any attempt at an ‘Islamic takeover’ a failure as it should be. Meanwhile, with the help of our friends, we will continue to infiltrate, educate, and convert the Muslim world to western values in a manner far more successful than any Islamic attempt to the do the same upon us.
October 23, 2013 at 4:03 PM
LS i hope you are right but at the moment your constitution is raped by the day.