Is Netanyahu Bluffing on Iran?
Is Netanyahu Bluffing on Iran? « Commentary Magazine.
Jonathan S. Tobin | @tobincommentary
10.17.2013 – 6:15 PM
There’s little doubt that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s continued attempts to persuade the world that the Iranian charm offensive is a fraud are falling flat. With the U.S. privately accentuating the positive about the reconvened nuclear P5+1 talks with Iran this week, the administration is ignoring the PM’s talk about Iranian President Hassan Rouhani being a “sheep in wolf’s clothing.”
Moreover, even in Israel, where Netanyahu’s view of Rouhani is widely shared by figures across the political spectrum, the threats he made this week during a speech to the Knesset about the country acting on its own to knock out the Iranian nuclear program were seen by many as an empty bluff. The belief that, no matter what Netanyahu says now, Israel will have little choice but to accept a Western accommodation with Iran, is by no means confined to the prime minister’s critics.
That’s the gist of a Time article in which the magazine’s Jerusalem correspondent Karl Vick discusses what he calls Netanyahu’s “grumbling from the sidelines” while “the West makes progress in Geneva.” But whether or not you believe Israel can or will eventually attack Iran, there’s little question that the international community, led by the Obama administration, is heavily invested in diplomacy with nd may well sacrifice the Jewish state’s security in exchange for an opportunity to relieve themselves of the responsibility to act on the nuclear threat and to get Iranian oil flowing to Western markets again.
As the Times of Israel reported earlier this week, Netanyahu used a speech at a Knesset session devoted to the anniversary of the 1973 Yom Kippur War to make the case for a unilateral, preemptive strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Recalling the complacence of Israeli leaders 40 years ago that led to Egypt and Syria being able to achieve a surprise attack, Netanyahu said that there were important lessons to be learned from this history for the Jewish state:
The first lesson is to never underestimate a threat, never underestimate an enemy, never ignore the signs of danger. We can’t assume the enemy will act in ways that are convenient for us. The enemy can surprise us. Israel will not fall asleep on its watch again,” he vowed.
The second lesson, he added, was that “we can’t surrender the option of a preventive strike. It is not necessary in every situation, and it must be weighed carefully and seriously. But there are situations in which paying heed to the international price of such a step is outweighed by the price in blood we will pay if we absorb a strategic strike that will demand a response later on, and perhaps too late.”
The Israeli leader is right on both points. But Israel’s problem today is different from that of 1973. Then, Prime Minister Golda Meir feared being blamed for starting a war and thought sitting back and taking the first blows would engender greater support from the United States. Indeed, even after it was clear she and Defense Minister Moshe Dayan had blundered and cost the lives of many Israelis, she insisted that her decision had been for the best since it helped ensure the U.S. resupply effort during the course of the war.
Today, Israel’s problem is more complex since an attack on Iran while the U.S. is involved in a diplomatic process with it would be viewed as an even more serious offense to the administration than a preemptive attack in 1973 would have been. Simply put, so long as the Iranians can keep the Americans talking to them, they have nothing to fear from Israel and nothing that Netanyahu said changes that.
More problematic is the clear desire on the part of the administration to buy into what rightly appears to the Israelis as the transparent fraudulence of the Rouhani charm offensive.
Vick discussed the analysis of Gary Samore, President Obama’s former top advisor on weapons of mass destruction, who said that any deal that gave the Iranians the ability to convert their stockpile of nuclear material to a bomb in a matter of months would compromise Israel’s security as well as that of the West. But since that is all the Iranians are offering the West, one has to question the motives of an administration when one of its top negotiators tells the New York Times in an off-the-record interview that, “I have never had such intense, detailed, straightforward, candid conversations with the Iranian delegation before,” when they have done nothing but recycle old proposals that have been previously rejected.
Under the circumstances, no wonder Netanyahu feels the need to rattle Israel’s saber at Iran. Unless he can convince the United States to start acting as it means to keep President Obama’s promises on the issue, it looks as the new diplomatic track will result in a deal that will compromise Israel’s security or buy the Iranians months if not years of extra time to get closer to their nuclear goal.
Netanyahu may not be bluffing about being willing to take the heat that a strike on Iran would generate. Indeed, if the West makes the kind of deal that Iran is offering, he may someday feel he has no choice but to do so. But until the Iranians blow off this attempt to negotiate the way they have every previous attempt, it’s likely that Washington doesn’t believe him.
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WarSclerotic 
October 18, 2013 at 1:47 PM
Of course Netanyahu is not bluffing on Iran
A few years ago Netanyahu held an in-depth discussion with Middle East expert Bernard Lewis. At the end of the talk he was convinced that if the ayatollahs obtained nuclear weapons, they would use them. Since that day, Netanyahu seems convinced that we are living out a rerun of the 1930s.
http://www.madisdead.blogspot.co.il/2012/02/crucial-piece-of-puzzle.html
Netanyahu quoted Bernard Lewis in his speech to the UN General Assembly in 2012
There’s a great scholar of the Middle East, Prof. Bernard Lewis, who put it best. He said that for the Ayatollahs of Iran, mutually assured destruction is not a deterrent, it’s an inducement.
http://www.madisdead.blogspot.co.il/2012/09/at-un-general-assembly-netanyahu-quotes.html
and what does Bernard Lewis say?
Particular importance should be attached to the policies, and perhaps still more the attitudes, of the present rulers of Iran, who seem to be preparing for a final apocalyptic battle between the forces of God [themselves] and of the Devil [ the Great Satan–the United States]. They see this as the final struggle of the End of Time and are therefore undeterred by any level of slaughter and destruction even among their own people . “Allah will know his own” is the phase commonly used, meaning that among the multiple victims God will recognize the Muslims and give them a quick pass to heaven.
In this context, the deterrent that worked so well during the Cold War, namely M.A.D. (Mutual Assured Destruction) , would have no meaning. At the End of Time, there will be general destruction anyway. What will matter is the final destination of the dead– hell for the infidels, and the delights of heaven for the believers. For people with this mindset, M.A.D. is not a constraint; it is an inducement…
http://www.madisdead.blogspot.co.il/2012/05/why-are-bernard-lewiss-views-on-mad.html
October 21, 2013 at 6:32 PM
Bibi is mirrors and smoke. His circus is over. Really sorry.
October 21, 2013 at 7:25 PM
I have always maintained that the only reason Bibi was letting the Iran business drag out was because he knew he had an “ace in the hole” that could stop the Iranians dead in their tracks.
Nothing has happened to make me believe otherwise.
As a weak unpopular president, Obama may be exactly what the doctor ordered to enable Bibi to execute his plan.
Everything Obama has done in the Middle East has failed. In most cases his actions have actually hurt US interests.
If Bibi hits Iran, there will be cheers all over the US. Congress and the Senate will back him 110%. Obama will be powerless and will have to back him, even if he hated the idea.
My essential point is that there are two sides to every coin. We look at “heads,” as reported by the media and are dismayed.
When the coin is flipped and it comes up “tails” all of us and the rest of the world will be amazed.
So I will not join the funeral procession with all the commentators here. Instead, I think I’ll light a joint and pour myself a drink.
יהיה בסדר… ! לחיים
October 21, 2013 at 7:42 PM
I salute you, Joseph! May Bibi’s ”ace in the hole” be good sooner or Bibi’s ass will be in a whole pretty soon.
And I’m with you in your optimistic thoughts, one hundred per cent. I just have to write the truth in the way I see it, that’s all. Anyhow, we’ll give Bibi a pass on this one. But not for long.
October 18, 2013 at 2:31 PM
Do the Iranians believe Netanyahu will ultimately deliver? And how far is Netanyahu willing to go on Iran?Will he resort to nukes if the attack does not pan out like planned?After all,Iran has made it clear of their intentions of wiping out the jews.So given that country’s intentions towards the jews;should Israel have the right to use whatever force and weapons necessary to prevail in the face of an enemy that wants to obliterate it from the world map? I believe the jews in Israel are being sold down the river by the so called world powers-including the U.S..And with a few exceptions-if the attack should happen,Israel will face a very hostile world politically,diplomatically,and even economically.But it is survival for Israel.At the rate things are moving-the so called world powers are willing to legitimize Iran’s nuclear program including their ability to make n-weapons in exchange for oil and a few concessions that are nothing more than window dressing to give the west a dignified retreat.
October 18, 2013 at 3:50 PM
There might be a problem with this Iranian shitty business we may be didn’t pay too much attention to it. Suddenly, in ”one lazy afternoon” I started to ask myself, what the hell is going on here? Why Netanyahu, who is super intelligent, didn’t gave the ok and go order for the circus to start? And guess, what, I ”discovered America”, if you get what I mean. An Israeli attack on Iran and the war that might follow, should strangulate for a long time the petrol from the Gulf to Europe and in all general directions, too. Surely Europe doesn’t even want to hear about an Israeli action. They didn’t even wanted to hear about a ”small” US action in Syria. So, an already hostile Europe can act in imprevisible ways after and during an Israeli action. Ammunition and weapons embargo? Active measures at the UN security council? Strategic threats? Open military life line to Iran?(don’t look at me like that, they are already su@king di@ks to each other). Europe loves Iran, right now. They want it. They are simply happy that the Iranians changed the ton. That gave them the pretext for being ready to terminate the sanctions. So, if Israel will touch Iran, in our opinion, Israel will get hurt by those crap eaters ( the Europe). And, if Israel will need the US, I don’t need to tell you now who is supposed to accord them assistance from the White House.
Sorry gentlemen, really, but we got fu@ked up on this one this time.
An attack on Iran, even successful, can bring Israel in a very precarious position, Europe from one direction and the boggy man 0bama, from the other direction. I wont go with that to the bank, still…
Until now, here, we analyzed the military options of Israel and every time we won the war for it. But what about the actual political conditions? That is what we have tried to discuss here, in the lines above.
October 18, 2013 at 5:28 PM
As one of those ‘crap eaters’ I can tell you that our useless elites will do nothing against Israel without permission from the big zero (aka Mr. Hope and Change).
Especially the Germans who have the biggest weight in the EU (thank God for the reelection of Frau Merkel).
The US while leaderless is still the leader and plays the music.
I don’t believe that Bibi is stupid. Because one has to be stupid to plan a military operation without taking the political situation into account.
What we have learned is that the military planning is much easier than the political planning because the parameters for the military operations are much more stable and predictable and therefore today’s assumptions are very likely to be correct tomorrow.
So any leader who is not totally stupid should have learned by now that the political situation is as predictable as the winning numbers of the lottery.
Today this and tomorrow that. Today my friend, tommorow my enemy.
Today smile, tomorrow betrayal. Shifting alliances, backstabbing and doublecrossing. It’s like in the good old days of Italian politics exemplified by the Vatican and Machiavelli.
No, the European leaders don’t love Iran. They are simply stupid, corrupt and morally depraved and they don’t give a shit about Israel (with very view exceptions).
Tell me. How can the Europeans hurt Israel?
But one thing was totally predictable. One thing that I and many others said for a long time. That Israel can’t trust Obavez and should expect the worst and that Israel should expect an appeasement deal between the US/Europe and Iran which effectively throws Israel under the bus.
I don’t believe that Bibi is that stupid and didn’t learn his lesson by now.
With Obavez’ behaviour he would be really stupid if he still trusts him or if he expects any help from the US or Europe.
If Bibi is relying on the US or Europe, Israel is doomed.
So if Bibi is not stupid, which I don’t think he is, he iought to have a plan by now that is independent of crappy political circumstances.
Because if he does not have such a plan or if he can’t adapt his strategy to the quickly changing circumstances, then his assurances in his UN speech have zero worth.
I don’t want to think that this is the case.
Because if it is, then may God have mercy with Israel.
October 18, 2013 at 6:02 PM
I really didn’t meant that simply people from Europe are ”crap eaters” – quoting myself, sweet Lord – but I was referring to the European leadership. No way you didn’t get it right, Artaxes.
Europe, my friend, is – as far as I am concerned – a collaborator power with Iran, and you know what happened to the ”collaborators” after that last War.
October 21, 2013 at 3:28 AM
“Europe, my friend, is – as far as I am concerned – a collaborator power with Iran, and you know what happened to the ”collaborators” after that last War.”
Now I’m curious. What will happen to Europe?
Luis, you did not answer the rest of my reply.
I asked a long time ago if Bibi is serious and if he will act regardless of the circumstances because even at that time it was obvious to me that the political circumstances will likely turn against him.
You said then that, yes, he will strike if necessary, regardless of the political circumstances.
Seems to me, you no longer believe this.
Your frustration is obvious. You lament about the US and the Europeans.
But it was to be expected that you can’t count on Europe or the US and it is naive to make plans that depend an their support.
The weakness of Netanyahus policy is and was that he just reacts to the political circumstances instead of shaping those circumstances to Israel’s advantage.
He is too passive.
Having said that I can’t see how a man can make such statements as he did when he depends on outside circumstances.
If he can only act if the political circumstances are right then his assurances were utterly meaningless.
I still believe that he is serious.
Seems to me that you are panicking a little bit.
On the positive side we have to realize that time works not only for the Iranians.
Time works also for Israel. Because of advances in technology Israel has today means that it did not have 5 years ago.
With every passing minute the IDF trains for and perfects its plan of action.
What Israel needs to do as fast as possible is to shape the diplomatic and politcal circumstances to its advantage.
Lashing out at c**ck suckers does not help us.
I fully agree with Joseph who said: F**k Obama, Let’s work for creative solutions that do not depend on him.
I’ll extend that to F**k the European politicians. Let’s work for creative solutions that do not depend on them.
October 21, 2013 at 10:59 AM
You completely misunderstood me, but its ok. I never bitch about the Europeans ” look how much they are shitters and don’t help Israel”, no, my friend. I only pointed out that they are what they are and, even worse, they are what they were. And they will pay the appropriate price for their behavior. They always did. You ask me what will happen to them? I’ll tell you what will happen in Europe, if you didn’t figure that already alone. Hundreds of thousands will perish in intern wars or/and by Iranian nuclear missiles. That, was about the Europeans you asked about. Now, about 0bama. I stopped to believe in him or in his amateur team a long time ago.
Israel has ”creative solutions” and Israel always had them. But, pointed out in his case who he is, what is he doing, what is his nature and psychology is a subject that stands alone and many others in the world can take an interest in those estimations, because the world is not only Israel and the US. As he was – and still he is – fucking with us, in the same style – no creativity here, sorry – he is fucking the entire world, the USA included. That’s all, my friend. We only talk here. We wont press the button from here, do we?
October 21, 2013 at 11:17 AM
..Ah…and about that ” Bibi question capability resolve”. I can tell you now, with a little margin of error, that he will do exactly nothing about the core of the Iranian nuclear program. He did nothing till now, he is doing nothing right now and accordingly with what we have seen until now, he will do shit in the future, too. Not that Israel isn’t capable to start the party and also close it, by itself, too.
Its the demagogue clown who is sitting right now on the chair of Israel PM, his weakness and hesitations who caused this actual damage we are taking as we speak on the international arena.
Israel was supposed to stop talking and start shooting a long time ago. Bibi waited too long, didn’t implemented the Menachem Begin Doctrine and we are today where we are. He and only he is guilty for Israel’s situation today. He didn’t understand the profound geopolitical changes, he didn’t understand 0bama for who he is, Bibi thought he would manipulate 0bama in Israel interests, but, behold, what a surprise. The bird just shitted Bibi’s head and 0bama had another interests to consider and not Bibi’s. Bibi’s strategy of ”sit and do shit” waiting for the events to help us, that strategy fall conclusively and we are where we are today.
May all have a nice morning.