Israel is being widely portrayed as the lone holdout against the global love affair with Iran’s new president. Certainly, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been the most outspoken critic. But several other countries are arguably even more worried by the American-Iranian rapprochement than Israel is – namely, America’s Arab allies.
Last month, a senior United Arab Emirates official said in a media interview that “If Israel were to strike Iran to stop it from getting a nuclear bomb, we wouldn’t object at all.” For a senior Arab official to publicly invite the hated Zionist enemy to launch a military strike on fellow Muslims is unprecedented. While Arab states have been urging America to attack Iran for years, they have hitherto opposed an Israeli strike. Moreover, even their pleas to America were strictly behind the scenes; they became public knowledge only due to WikiLeaks. Thus for Arab officials to be willing to publicly support an Israeli strike attests to a desperate fear that the American defense umbrella they have relied on for decades may no longer exist.
Israel – a country Riyadh doesn’t officially recognize – over the Iranian charm offensive. A few days earlier, at an International Peace Institute dinner whose guests included officials from both Israel and several Arab states that don’t recognize its existence, “No Arab minister attacked Israel, and not one stood up and left the room when he found out that a high-ranking representative of the Israeli government was sitting beside him,” Haaretz reported: They were too busy discussing their main mutual concern, Iran.
This isn’t the start of an Arab-Israeli romance; most of these countries still hate Israel, and many are deeply anti-Semitic. Rather, it reflects the fear engendered by America’s gradual withdrawal from the Middle East. Despite years of purchasing top-quality American arms, many Arab states have no real military capabilities, especially against a much larger, more technologically sophisticated country that happens to be located right next door, in easy invasion distance (in contrast, several Arab countries lie between Iran and Israel). Thus they have always counted on America being there to defend them – and now, suddenly, they’re no longer sure they can. In that situation, even Israel is better than nobody.
The problem, of course, is that Israel can’t and won’t supply the same defense umbrella America has. Arabs states can plausibly hope Israel will deal with Iran’s nuclear program, because it views Iranian nukes as a direct threat to itself. But Israel would never intervene to, for instance, rescue Kuwait from Iraqi invasion, as America did in 1991. Hence America is currently indispensible. As one UAE academic put it, “We don’t have any other insurance company, and we live in a dangerous area.”
But if America decides to close up shop, the Arabs will perforce find another insurance company, just like anyone else whose insurer goes out of business. Who it will be remains to be seen: Russia is one obvious possibility; they could even decide they have no choice but to join Iran’s orbit. But either way, the result be the same: For the first time in decades, America will be left with no allies whatsoever in a region that remains crucial to the global oil supply, and hence to America’s own economic well-being.
WarSclerotic 
October 2, 2013 at 4:17 PM
Qur’an 49:9 “If two parties among the Believers fall into fighting, make peace: but if one becomes aggressive, then fight against the one that transgresses until it complies.”
October 2, 2013 at 4:24 PM
Reblogged this on BPI reblog and commented:
U.S. Romance with Iran Terrifies Arab Allies « Commentary Magazine
October 2, 2013 at 4:48 PM
“Binyamin Netanyahu now faces the uphill job of repairing his own credibility. For five years has had declared again and again that Israel’s military option is on track in certain circumstances, but has never lived up to the threat. He has followed a path of almost total military passivity.
President Obama knows that Israel’s military capacity is up to a solo operation against Iran. Tehran, however, though conscious of the IDF’s high military, technological and cyber warfare capabilities, is convinced that Israel like the United States has lost the appetite for a military initiative.
Netanyahu must now revive Israel’s deterrence and convince Iran that his challenge at the UN had ended an era of military passivity and should be taken seriously.
In the coming weeks, therefore, the Iranians will react with steps to upset US-Israeli relations, possibly by raising military tensions in the region directly or through their proxies. Until now Tehran operated from outside Washington and its inner councils. Now, smart Iranian diplomats will be sitting down with the US president close to his ear for friendly discussions on ways to further their rapprochement” Debka.
October 2, 2013 at 5:01 PM
This is what happens when you wait, wait, wait Ad nauseam
October 2, 2013 at 5:04 PM
Makes sense JP. ‘Divide and conquer’ is probably nothing new to the Iranians.
October 2, 2013 at 5:16 PM
Coulda sworn I posted this before…. But…. Nope!
Thanks, John for bringing it (back?!) to my attention.
Jeeze, am I losing it?
October 2, 2013 at 5:02 PM
If the Arabs think the US is bound to the region to protect the oil, think again. The US is on the brink of non-dependence and may actually become a major exporter of oil and oil related products in the not-so-near future. When will it happen, who knows? Not while we have an Obama administration and an EPA choking our domestic oil industry, that’s for sure.
If America ends up with no Arab allies in the region, American’s well being, in my humble opinion, will not be in jeopardy. The price of a barrel of oil may go up, but that will only drive our domestic oil industry harder and accelerate our non-dependence on imported oil. 😎
October 3, 2013 at 11:33 AM
LS perhaps it is interesting for you to dig into the deals between the big USA oil and Russia to start whit
So you will see that oil independence has a lot more to it than oil alone.
Key words are stalin and rockefeller to start whit.
Very interesting i have to say.
It is so more complicated that i need a day or two to give just enough info to explain just an little bit.
October 3, 2013 at 5:52 PM
I grew up with the oil industry, invested in it, worked as a roustabout and roughneck in my younger days then moved into an accounting and auditing position with a Fortune 500 oil tool manufacturing company in the oil capital of the world, namely Houston. Furthermore, I grew up in an ‘oil’ family. My father had a PHD in geology and taught everything from petroleum engineering to geology itself at a local university. He was also key in starting one of the first ‘drilling schools’ in Louisiana where oilfield workers could get precise technical training at the university.
That being said, I know you see a political side to oil independence, but I see an overwhelming economic side that is sure to overtake the politics and insure future oil independence for us here in the USA. I am, however, anxious to hear from you about Russia’s angle in oil independence. In all my days in the oil industry, I never really thought of Russia as a big factor in oil. But that doesn’t mean they were not.
You see Joop, I’m first a believer that economics always wins over politics. Especially when the economic force is as powerful as it is in the oil industry. I know I have no concrete references in what I say here. Just what I saw and still see today.
October 2, 2013 at 10:51 PM
Smiley Says:
October 2, 2013 at 10:46 PM
We just wanted to repost what we wrote before, and we hope it is ok with Artaxes that we post his response and our response to it.
Smiley Says:
October 2, 2013 at 12:02 PM
Hi guys, one of the things we wonder about what you guys think, is about the diplomatic situation that might happen if Israel waits to long, like we said it might or might not happen, but its something that hopefully people in charge of Israel have discussed.
We were thinking that what would happen if Iran and the UN agreed on some kind of arrangement where Iran could keep making and or keeping its nuclear enriched products or other arrangements that the UN and Iran would accept, but would be an existential threat to Israel and other muslim countries, which would cause the other muslim countries to get nuclear weapons.
So if such an agreement is reached by Iran and the UN, then Israel would be breaking international law by pre emptily attacking Iran, because according to international law, if Iran signed a deal with the UN, then Iran would be seen as complying with international laws, and Israel would be breaking international law.
So if a deal was reached with the UN and Iran, then if Israel kept threatening Iran, Iran could take the threats to the UN, or alternately they could just claim they are victims of Israeli aggression and play the victims role and beg for international protection from Israel.
Even if Iran is financially broke, they would be financially helped by their allies, and they would get the best quality and quantity of weapons like the s300, s400, or maybe s500 russian missile systems, and maybe other advanced russian weapons.
Because Israel would be going againts international law, they couldnt play the role of the victim, or get much sympathy to overcome the russian defence missiles, or other russian advanced weapons, and they probably wouldnt get their weapons resupplied by the US.
And if Iran would be seen as obeying international UN laws and Israel would be seen as breaking it by threatening, then russia might even become the protective big brother of Iran and threaten with Russian missiles and other forms of military retaliation, and the world would agree with Russias role as a protecter of Iran against a war mongering Israel.
We hope this wont happen, which is why Israel shouldnt do to much more threatening, because it would be seen as a war mongerer if Iran is complying with international law even if it doesnt meet Israels security needs.
So hopefully Israel will attack as soon as possible without to many more threats, or hardly any more threats, and must realise that already with all the threats theyve given, Iran might still be able to play the victim card even if Israel doesnt make any more threats.
And Iran might still be able to cry to the world to get help againts Israel, and get the Russian big brother protection, and also other muslim countries help, and either no one or hardly anyone will help Israel, and no one will resupply Israel with weapons.
So please let us know what anyone thinks, how this could be avoided, what can Israel do to survive.
Please dont go into to much detail, as some of our muslim or Russian enemies are also reading this blog.
Thank you, Smiley
======================
artaxes Says:
October 2, 2013 at 4:28 PM
I take the liberty to paste here an excerpt of my article “Putin, America and the Grand Bargain”.
It deals not with exactly the same scenario but a very similar one, namely the situation how Israel can prevent a bad deal before it happens but it can also apply after a phony deal was concluded.
“Israel our last player in this chess game is in great danger now because the circumstances are not favourable to an Israeli strike, because as it seems the US is falling for the Iranian bait and the world gets a false picture of a real chance to end the nuclear crisis and also because the US is, it seems, still opposed to an Israeli strike.
The US will make an appeasement deal with Iran or it will come finally to its senses and give the green light to an Israeli strike which I have very big difficulties to believe.
So, what can Israel do to change the game
The Iranians have always done their enrichment work and military experiments in secret. The existence of both Natanz and Fordow were only admitted by the Iranians when their existence was revealed by the intelligence services or dissidents.
I believe that there are more such secrets sites. The ISIS institute hinted at the existence of a possible secret laser enrichment site.
I also believe that Israel has good intelligence on the Iranian program because its existence depends on it. There are also plausible reports about Israeli human intelligence operating in Iran.
This leads me to believe that Israel knows about such secrets sites.
If that is indeed the case all Israel has to do is expose these sites. This would create several things. It would end the charade that is currently going on and create a strong sense of urgency. The Iranians would be totally exposed as liars who cannot be trusted. It would show that they are not serious. It would show that there is no point for the US or anyone negotiating with them. Most importantly it would show that they have crossed the rubicon already and that there is no more time left to waste. Such a move would increase diplomatic support and justification for an Israeli strike and also public support in the US and around the world.
After having taking back the initiative in the public arena Israel should immediately follow up with a military strike”.
===================
Reply
Smiley Says:
October 2, 2013 at 9:51 PM
Also we see that someone has activated for the Israeli opposition leader Yachimovich to say “Opposition head says Israel does not stand alone against Iran,
Islamic Republic is no existential threat . . . . ”
We believe Yachimovich is probably a pretty smart person to get the qualifications to become the head of her party, and become the opposition leader, so we dont believe she truly believes that the Islamic Iranian Republic is not an existential threat, but we believe people are advising her to do this for maybe political gains.
So maybe the Obama administration contacted someone to get her to do this, because if the Obama administration can divide the Israeli public, and maybe they will also try to enlist J Street, then maybe they could in Israel and in the Jewish diaspora community build a movement to oppose Bibis steps to protect Israel from Iran, and other muslim countries who will also get the nuclear weapons that will be a threat, if they think Iran has them.
Please let us know what you think.
Thank you Artaxes, for your response to our question at the beginning our entry today, this gives us a bit of an idea how Israel might with its strength and Gods help still be able to survive, but hopefully they wont leave it to late, or it might survive but with 90% of it with a third degree burn, which would also be really awful, and the survivors might find it uninhabitable.
Sorry Joseph, we havent had time to view Bibis speech, we will view it.
Thank you, Smiley.
October 2, 2013 at 11:20 PM
We wanted to answer Louisiana Steve, that yes a lot of people are monitoring many websites and blogs for many reasons, and this website and blog is monitored by many various people and many varieties of government agencies, and many enemies of Israel, whether they are certain Muslim enemy countries, Russian, other countries, and sorry to say, even the hostile Obama US administration, who has leaked many Israeli attack ideas on Iran, so Obama US administration is hostile to Israel.
If Joseph wants to reveal how we know his site is monitored, thats up to him, but for security and privacy reasons he might not be able to.
Thank you, Smiley.
October 3, 2013 at 12:00 AM
From where I sit.
My opinions for some reason have agitated a few people on this site from time to time.
I think what some people took as disrespect was more a sense of frustration on my part with events in the Middle East, and how I thought Israel was letting the situation get away from it.
As I’ve said before, there was a time when Israel was respected by all and feared by many. Israel was that plucky little State that took on all comers and won.
From where I sit that started to unravel with Oslo and disengagement. Compromise a tenet of Western Civilization is lost in the brass knuckle Arab world where the strong horse holds sway.
Disengagement was a sign of weakness for Israel and and a victory as far as the Arabs were concerned. Next came the rockets from the evacuated land with tepid responses from Israel, then when Israel finally did respond they left the terrorist in place to claim victory. More weakness as far as the Arabs are concerned. The back peddling continued by releasing terrorists as “good will” and getting nothing in return, more weakness. The more the Arabs, Europe and American pushes the more Israel gave. The Arabs have no concept of compromise and gave nothing in return. More weakness!
They will keep pushing for the 67 borders and right of return and give nothing.
In this way that plucky little country that once was all but vanished.
Meanwhile Iran threatens to wipe Israel of the map and will in all likely hood obtain nukes to do so. For years Israel has been threatening to take out the nukes while doing next to nothing. For years Israel has been watching Iran’s proxy armies encircle it while doing next to nothing.
Today Netanyahu’s threats ring hollow, no one believes him any more.
For those of you who may/will take exception to all this, tough! You are a great people and have accomplished much, but in my opinion you could not have played this any worse.
October 3, 2013 at 8:15 AM
There is considerably truth in a certain issues that you put here on the table and also you sound like someone who is monitoring Israel for a long period of time. Its right, there are some problems in my country and heavy mistakes were done. Even in the last war against Hezbollah, the establishment acted awful, to say the least, and the Army paid the price. The war between Ehud Barak and Gabi Ashkenazy did also a lot of damage to the whole issue and, in my opinion, it was that fateful hate between those two who lead to the cancelling of all the Iranian operation. Anyhow, for all those who love Israel and are hoping for better times regarding the land where once Jesus walked, I want to assure you that the old Israel Defense Army, the IDF, didn’t changed and we, the people here, are trusting it. With Netanyahu, without Netanyahu, with a new PM better than him or less, this country and its Army will find the way to overcome its enemies. It always did.
October 3, 2013 at 1:08 PM
Luis, from your lips to Gods ears. I’ve been pulling for Israel for decades and continue to do so.
October 3, 2013 at 2:39 PM
Here also sins my brain started to working 35 year ago or so.
October 3, 2013 at 3:07 PM
It is amusing to read from “prophets” talking about ” that plucky little State” that WAS feared and respected because anyone who has the slightest clue about Israel’s history and the region knows how false this idea is.
To quote a military expert “Israel was viewed not only by the world but by themselves as a scrappy little nation on the very edge of survival.”.
What changed that perception?
It were these six fatéful days in 1967 that changed the perception of the world from “a nation on the very edge of survival” to “an awsome military power to be reckoned with”.
Before those six days the odds were staggering. Surrounded by hostile nations who, lead by Gamal Nasser, made their genocidal aim to drive the Jews into the sea very clear by their public declarations and their constant boodthirsty propaganda going on for years and confromted with overwhelming superiority in arms and men you didn’t have to be a prophet to predict that Israel would loose this war.
It is easy to imagine how the Israelis then have been very worried and wanted their military to act in light of the buildup and rhetoric surrounding them.
They had in Levy Eskol a very hesitant prime minister und it is understandable that many Israelis got very nervous.
But then the unthinkable happened. In just six days Israel stunned the world and even themselves by executing a brilliantly planned military operation that was so successful that it changed the balance of power radically and crippled Israel’s enemies.
This teaches us that you shouldn’t mistake hesitancy of Israeli prime ministers for weakness and impotence.
If you want to know whether Israel is feared or not feared anymore, just look at Israels neighbours. They don’t even think of attacking Israel.
Make no mistake. If they would think that they could beat Israel militarily they wouldn’t hesitate for one minute to attack.
The very fact that Oslo happened proves this point. Oslo was the recognition that they could not beat Israel militarily.
The fact that the Iranians have carefully avoided to openly cross Netanyahu’s red line by converting part of their Uranium to fuel plates shows us that it is not only me who believes him but they obvously believe him as well.
This is why it is utterly foolish to write Netanyahu prematurely off and proclaim that Israel has lost its deterrence.
Am I worried that Netanyahu waits too long? Yes.
Does he make empty threads? Don’t think so.
October 3, 2013 at 3:09 PM
Bravo!
October 3, 2013 at 3:38 PM
oy vey….
October 3, 2013 at 3:32 PM
“They don’t even think of attacking Israel.” they’ve been lauching missles at you for years. Not sure what you’d call that but I call that being attacked. Listen, I hear what you say, but the past does not guarantee the future. The next war will be a rocket war over the State of Israel. Israel is an atoll in a raging sea of radical Islam, history may say one thing but ignoring the difference between the past and the now can be fatal. I don’t car how tough the little atoll may be, a large enough Islamic tusnami will swamp it.
October 3, 2013 at 4:08 PM
I think what you are saying JP is never underestimate your enemy. Good policy I always say.
As for Israel, I think they know what they are up against and have already taken steps prevent this very pitfall, i.e. Iron Dome, civilian gas masks, shelters, IDF at ready, border security ‘out the wazoo’, an advanced arsenal of weapons, one of the finest intelligence services in the world, deep cover covert operations, financially secure, allied with a superpower, clear and concise responses to threats, a stable and compassionate government, an educated and militarized populace, building further alliances with Arab neighbors….
I could go on, but I think I made my point.
October 3, 2013 at 4:11 PM
Hope you’re right LS… Hope you’re right.
October 3, 2013 at 4:14 PM
You can’t understand the present without understanding the past.
You need to understand both to make accurate predictions.
To predict the future behaviour correctly you have to know the past behaviour.
That is common sense. If you want to reasonably accurately predict how the new football player in your favourite will perform you look at his past record, don’t you?
As for the rocket attacks. Correct me if I’m wrong but they have decreased drastically since the military operation in Gaza. JW could tell us more about this.
Never in military history have rockets decided a war and the won’t decide a war in the future for the very simple reason that they have a very bad fuel to payload ratio.
So unless the payload is biological, chemical or nuclear this will be true for the future as well.
October 3, 2013 at 4:26 PM
“So unless the payload is biological, chemical or nuclear this will be true for the future as well.” Big unless!
Let’s all hope it does not come to this…
October 3, 2013 at 4:26 PM
Anyway. I’ve made my point. You didn’t even get the past right.
That’s why I’m not going to answer further. That would simply be a distraction.
October 3, 2013 at 4:28 PM
This is about thr 4th time you said this. I’ll remind you when you say it again. ;0)
October 3, 2013 at 4:39 PM
John…
Consider for a moment why you draw the same response from posters over and over again.
Could it possibly be because your posts always consist of the same note?
Hmmm……
October 3, 2013 at 4:43 PM
That, and because it does not line up with the Polyanna thinking of many on this site!
October 3, 2013 at 4:49 PM
For those who do not know of the Polyanna principle.
“The “Pollyanna principle” is a psychological principle which portrays the positive bias people have when thinking of the past. According to the Pollyanna Principle, the brain processes information that is pleasing and agreeable in a more precise and exact manner as compared to unpleasant information. We actually tend to remember past experiences as more rosy than they actually occurred.”
October 3, 2013 at 5:02 PM
Nobody who lives here remembers conflicts as anything other than a NIGHTMARE.
Rosy, my ass…!
You clearly know nothing about Israelis.
Denigrating positive thinking (aka “hope”) is the pathetic retreat of the pessimist.
Pessimist: One who knows the cost of everything and the value of nothing.
Regardless, I’m asking that you stop. If only ’cause it’s PISSING ME OFF.
Call me Polyanna…. Enough.
October 3, 2013 at 5:13 PM
“Regardless, I’m asking that you stop.” Ummm no free speech, sorry to to hear that Joe….. Your universe your rules. I shall endeavor to find a more enlightened universe then.
October 5, 2013 at 10:27 AM
I think it was an emotional reaction from JW , better to stay here-
but if i,am wrong JW is big enough to repeat his statement
October 5, 2013 at 10:58 AM
I made it obvious that it was emotional.
I’ve been defending JP’s posts all along. If he decides that he’d rather not post here, that’s his choice.
I won’t stand for him or anyone else insulting other posters. Perhaps he thought his “Polyanna” epithet wasn’t insulting.
I posted what I did to make it clear that I do so consider it insulting.
October 5, 2013 at 11:26 AM
I do not see it as insulting JW, i see this effect also it is just a human thing.( and can be helpful to come trough difficult times)
October 3, 2013 at 5:29 PM
October 3, 2013 at 7:06 PM
Hey everyone here and a very good evening may we have. Thank you, Artaxes, for the beautiful and exact presentation of the situation in Israel prior to The Six Days War. Yes, you got that right when you wrote about the Israeli PM back in those days, who was very hesitant.
With your permission, I want – if I may – to refer to the military operations at a grand scale, for trying to understand the Israeli military doctrine and see how these military principles – the military doctrine – feet into the actual geopolitical military situation.
The first move was a surprise attack, executed by the Israeli Air Force, the IAF, with the main goal to destroy the enemy air force at the ground and also destroying or making inutilizable the enemy airfields. The same tactic was used in the operation The Pillar of Fire, 40 years after the Six Days War, when the IAF opened the hostilities by an incisive move of decapitation – terminating the enemy leadership – and destroying their air power – their missiles depots. Yes, missiles today count as air power and we will keep that in mind.
So, after the initial air strikes were executed, the Israeli armor columns enter the action, penetrating deep the enemy front, cutting the communication and the supply lines of the enemies and running fast forward, as far the Israeli supplies permit.
Now, that the IAF finished its initial mission of crippling the enemy air force at the ground, it frees itself for the support missions for the Israeli ground forces; in this stage, the main target of the IAF is the enemy armor force, which is decimated from above by the Israeli jets. The mission now for the Israeli mobile infantry is to deal with the scattered enemy troops, which are giving up the fight in mass.
This was the way Israel won that war in ’67. In fact, Israel brilliantly applied in that year a doctrine that was developed by the German Army – the Wehrmacht, which is the Blitzkrieg – The Lighting War.
The attacking side is opening the hostilities by surprise, with its air force attempting to terminate the enemy grounded air force and the armor following, penetrating the enemy front using the ”schwerpunkt”, which means ”the weak point”. Israel doctrine is also standing for transferring the war into the enemy territory, because of the small dimensions of the Israeli state and the proximity of the heavy populated centers near the state borders.
Another modern implementation of this military doctrine was wonderful implemented by the American general Schwartzkopf, during the operation The Desert Storm – the readers who have in interest in this brilliant US operation may search by themselves.
How all these military principles and this doctrine may be implemented today by Israel and what will be updated, all these and more might follow in a further dissertation, which its main goal being
a future military conflict between Iran and Israel.
October 3, 2013 at 8:48 PM
Shots fired at US Capitol as a ‘drill’ was taking place 🙂
October 3, 2013 at 8:49 PM
Capital Shield 2014 is a joint training exercise in the National Capital Region, or NCR, that runs from Sept. 30 thru Oct. 3. first responders to train in nation’s capital.
October 3, 2013 at 8:56 PM
it is harmful for Israel to keep waiting for the US and Iranian negotiations, as things keep getting worse and worse for Israeli security.
Israel might win the war againts Iran and its proxies, but if 1 or 2 nuclear devices such as nuclear suicide bombers get in, etc, and Israel gets a third degree burn to 90 % of it, it might have survived but it might be uninhabitable even in the 10% left.
Thats why we hope Bibi takes action as soon as possible, because John the Prophet blogger is correct, sadly it is really late to take action now, even if some people dont want to hear it.
Everyone has their own ideas and their own views, and yes Israel won its past wars, but the Yom kippur war was left a little to late and Israel almost lost.
Yes, we all believe that God is watching over Israel, but that doents mean Israel or Jewish people or anyone should wait until the last minute to take self defensive action againts someone who has for many decades threatened to murder you and is making the weapons to do so.
It says in the Torah the Jewish bible, that God protects the Jewish people, but it also says that if the Jews neglect their responsibilities he will get the Jews to return to their religious ways either in a hard way or he will get them to return to their religious ways in a hard way. Also with protection, he will protect the Jews, but the Jews have to make the effort to fight the enemy, and not just bury their heads in the sand, and keep saying we will fight the enemy later when the knife is at our throat.
These are nuclear devices, not regular bombs or missiles, for a small land sized country as Israel, it would destroy most of it.
Israel and the UN has let Hezbollah accumulate 80,000 missiles since Lebanon war 2, whos unwise actions were those, letting Hezbollah do that.
It has been published, everyone knows that as amazing the Iron Dome System is, and the other missile shields are, they wont be able to stop most of those missiles coming in, and if in those missile barrages 1 or 2 of them are nuclear, then for a small land sized country as Israel, it would destroy most of it. And if Iran has nuclear devices, they could have given it to other muslim countries to use againts Israel, and who knows where they will come from.
We want Israel to win, but with everyone saying that we will take care of Iran later, and keep kicking it down the road, month after month, year after year, that is sadly an arrogant way of behaviour, thinking, dont worry we will take care of it later, like someone procrastinating saying dont worry I will finish my assignment, and keep going over the due date for the same assignment repeatedly for months and years.
John the Prophet is correct Israel has left the Iranian nuclear threat to late, this is nuclear, its not regular bombs or missiles, and they might not come from Iran, even if they develop them.
They can come into Israel in nuclear suicide bombers as well.
Its important that Israel takes military action as soon as possible, its ridiculous to keep waiting for the worlds sanctions to take affect, the Mullahs havent been slowed down by them all these years, even though their poor citizens are suffering very badly. To minimize the damage it will get, Israel needs to take action now, and the longer it takes to the worse damage it will get, as a third degree burn to 90% of it, it might have survived but it might be uninhabitable even in the 10% left.
Thank you, Smiley
October 3, 2013 at 9:19 PM
Israel can cause Iran to start rediscover the fire again and we can prove that with a simply military analysis where Israeli conventional assets will be considerate in comparison with the Iranian military capacities. We wont analyze that now – may be in a near future; however, we can assure the readers here – and Smiley, of course – that if Israel will decide to act now, tomorrow or next month the ayatollah regime will collapse together with all the Iranian infrastructure. Of course, it wont be a surgical operation. This is the reason the sanctions have to be enforced even stronger because otherwise we’ll have this war. This is my message : crippling sanctions or a devastating war, with all its consequences, for Europe and the US as well. Is as simple as that.
Do you want war? Then let the Iranians to party with the atom.
Do you want Israel quiet? Then continue to enforce the sanctions on Iran.
October 3, 2013 at 10:19 PM
Hi Luis, we believe that sometimes war is needed, war is something that should be avoided as much as possible, but sanctions havent worked all these years, sanctions are a fake bandaid solution if it is used to late, if there is cancer, you dont use a bandaid.
Either Israel goes and gets the nuclear facillities now, or in the future nuclear weapons will come at Israel from many other places, in many forms, not just missiles or bombs.
Even if Israel wins the war, but half of it is radioactive, because its such a small country, it would be devastating.
Its only 8 hour drive from south to north, and half hour drive from east to west.
Believe us Luis, we want the best for Israel, we want the people to live in peace and in a health.
October 3, 2013 at 10:55 PM
The actual sanctions were apparently so strong that Iran is on the verge of economical collapse and we actually are demanding not only the enforcement of the existing sanctions but new, more crippling ones. Regarding the possibility that Israel will be in a situation of exchanging nuclear blows and contra blows with Iran, with al due respect Smiley, forget about that. Even if the Iranians will have their bombs in their pockets, Israel military conventional capacity is so complex that with the first strike the Iranians will be:
1.Blinded.
2.Without electrical power.
3.Their missiles silos hit.
4.No possibility to any counter action in this stage.
5. Their main nuclear reactors hit.
6.No infrastructures.
Israel will use its long range missiles arm, the Jericho missiles, swarms of drones and the its jet fighter bombers, not necessarily in this order.
Iran will be reduced to dust and no Islamic republic will be around anymore, disturbing and threatening its neighbors.
This is not science fiction, this is military science. This scenario may remain on the desk, or it may become operational.
October 3, 2013 at 11:25 PM
I agree Luis.
October 4, 2013 at 11:40 PM
Dear Luis, its not just about Iran having nuclear weapons capabilities of all sorts, once the situation will be that the other Muslim countries thinks that there is a high chance that Iran has nuclear weapons, then all the Muslim countries will also get them.
You know one of the reasons Israel won the Yom Kippur war, that they nearly lost because they waited until it was to late, the US wasnt going to even resupply them with weapons of any sorts, it was because Golda Meir contacted people in the US Gov. and said, unless they resupplied Israel, then Israel was going to use its nuclear weapons, so the US resupplied them with planes, tanks, etc during the war.
The US wont do that anymore, and the Muslim countries wont be afraid anymore.
Iran will also sell or will give it to other countries and terrorist groups, to attack Israel, and so will the other Muslim countries, once they have nuclear weapons themselves.
Israel just caught an Iranian spy, that has got into Israel on 5 different occasions over many years, just think how many others have also.
If anyone of them or many of them had weapons grade Uranium or Plutonium surgically implemented, with a detonator and also someone with a remote detonator in a far away location, then half of Israel would be radioactive.
Golda Meir said that people need to realise there wont be peace with Muslim countries until they love their children more then they hate Israel.
In the Iran & Iraq war, Iran bought from Taiwan, millions of nice coloured plastic green tags with religious writing on it, and brainwashed adults and children that when they wear these tags as a necklace and walk in a field between certain Iraqi and Iranian borders and they blow up, the green tags will be a key to heaven, and millions of innocent brainwashed Iranian people did that, they got blown up, demining the Iraqi Iranian border.
Also other Muslim countries have used adults and children as suicide bombers againts Israel, and European countries, even in India and Pakistan, and others. Those were regular explosives and caused massive damage, think if they were nuclear what would have happened.
Iran didnt care of its poor suffering innocent civillians all these years suffering the sanctions, they just kept building many nuclear facilities and even a plutonium one, think of the nuclear facilities that havent been discovered yet.
The world is a stage where people can pretend and act to the news cameras, if all these years Iran didnt care of its citizens suffering, while it was building nuclear facillites to make nuclear explosives, etc, then why would it care now.
Iran is not afraid of its citizens revolting againts them, the last time the Iranian citizens tried that, they were shot and killed by the government forces, and the rest captured, put in jails, tortured and murdered.
Israel is a beautiful small country, only an 8hr drive from North to South, and 30min drive East to West, 1 or 2 nuclear explosives would destroy half of Israel or maybe all of it..
Also if all the other Muslim countries had nuclear explosives or weapons of any kind, then Israel wouldnt know who to counterattack.
The Muslim countries, and many other countries have tried to destroy Israel in wars and terrorism, with nuclear explosive suicide murderer bombers is not something to take a chance with, so its not only about Iran attacking with nuclear missiles, but all the other Muslim countries getting nuclear explosives, and all of them attacking Israel, directly or covertly.
It is true, Israel can counterattack but after half the country or all of it is radioactive, then it will have injured other countries, but it might loose half or all of itself.
Please remember Luis this is not a message to attack you or anyone else, so please everyone dont get angry, and let your emotions get in the way of evaluating this message.
People in Israel and the world should try to understand that if all these 20+ years of Iran lying, and cheating the world in negotiations, and continually building more nuclear facilities not caring about it poor citizens suffering, and sending millions to die as human demining things, then they are lying now, and will lie in negotiations in the future. They wont care if Israel wipes out most of their country, and Israel might be attacked by other Muslim countries with nuclear explosives also, and it can be done by nuclear suicide bombers, so half or all of Israel will be uninhabitable.
Israel shouldnt wait for anymore sanctions, and should attack as soon as possible, the longer it waits, the more damage it will get. Its a beautiful small country, it cant have defensive borders if it shrinks and becomes smaller.
Some in the Israeli government and psychologists said that by the behaviour patterns of the puppet Iranian gov. controlled by Khameni, it seems Iran has 1 nuclear explosive device already, and they are just trying to make many more now.
Thank you, Smiley.
October 5, 2013 at 11:09 AM
Well, mm, i have to ad a little bit to this topic !
Operation cast lead and operation Pillar of defense where more ore less a militarily victory ( ended to soon , international pressure ?) but in reality hamas has won , they are sitting now on a negotiation table whit backing from the rest of the world.and whit thousands more rockets.
Men should be either treated generously or destroyed, because they take revenge for slight injuries – for heavy ones they cannot.
Niccolo Machiavelli
The war for the public opinion is lost .
The USA starts dealing whit iran and connect the palestinian shit direct to peace in the middle east.
There is no longer a militarily way out for Israel that point is passed, so what is left over a diplomatic solution , means a palestinian state and an iran whit nukes .
And iran know it and will play this out
Yep there is some Polyanna thinking here.
I hate to say it but reality demand it, ISRAEL is fucked big time.
Israel will survive but not as an independent state anymore but more like a part of the new deal.
I have the highest respect for the IDF and the motivation of Israel but, the world is a to big play for Israel.-
Just 8.000.000 citizens
Israel played the nice card to much and waited to long.
It is better to be feared than loved, if you cannot be both.
Niccolo Machiavelli
It is much more secure to be feared than to be loved.
Niccolo Machiavelli
October 5, 2013 at 1:22 PM
Dear Joop, if Israel acts really soon, then it might not be “fucked big time” as we think you put it. There might be high casualties, as there usually are in wars, that usually cant be avoided, but if the waiting takes to much longer, then it will be much worse, like the time of the Yom Kippur war or worse.
We have seen the amazing postings you and the other bloggers have put here.
We have seen in one of your posts we think you put that you are an older person who wouldnt qualify for he IDF, or something along those lines, well that doesnt matter, people use what they have.
You have posted very well researched, intelligent, high level information, with politeness, and respect to others.
Look Stephen Hawking has a motor neurone disease, where he is paralysed from the neck down, and he cant speak very well, but he uses his brilliant brain, we’ve known Doctors who have Terets syndrome, even though some people told them they couldnt do things, and wouldnt succeed, they didnt listen to the negatives, and they worked hard and became surgeons.
Maybe you with other bloggers here and other people can start networking, and together getting more people and researching different campaigning and advertising techniques, with different kinds of media.
Posting things also on YouTube, Facebook, and any other media we can think of.
Neither you, or other bloggers here, non of us should give up, we need to take action, we need to work together
Letter writing campaigns, infomercial campaigns, organising rallies, etc, whatever google ideas that everyone can suggest and try a whole bunch of them.
This way, maybe some of them will work, and will start pushing and putting pressure on the Israeli gov., to take millitary action againts the Iranian nuclear facillities as soon as possible, in a week, 1 or 2 months, etc.
Sometimes the citizens can effect the gov. to take action quicker if they try all sorts of public campaigning and rallies, etc.
They took a poll and 65% agree with military action, another 15% were undecided.
Maybe campaigning and rallies will get the other 15% or more, and maybe the military action will happen sooner.
At least all of us would be trying, when we all make an effort and try, then we empower ourselves and we are not victims anymore, whatever happens in the end at least we can say we tried and did the best we could.
Israel shouldn’t give AWAY any more of ITS land, it belongs to Israel, and it will become indefensible.
Like we wrote before, its only an 8 hour drive from north to south, 30min drive from east to west, Israel cant afford to become smaller, and the land belongs to ISRAEL, no one else.
Thank you, Smiley.
October 5, 2013 at 3:00 PM
Dear Smiley, after more than 30 years reading , searching for info, making conclusions and rethinking to come to new conclusion trough getting more and more info i come to a conclusion that this is so much bigger than Israel alone.
This is just a phase to come to a new world order long time ago planned and the world is prepared for many years for this big change over.
The implementation of this great plan keeps going faster and faster.
even the USA, formerly a tower of strength for freedom is almost broken down to a level as in Europe.
We go to a completely new world order, and any resistance in any form will be destroyed, like the tower of strength for freedom.
he big question and the big fight at the moment is who will be the big boss.
The USA , a renewed Anglo Saxon empire or the UN
And then we have the underlying political battles against this plan
between all this political violence Israel as independent State can not endure, that possibility is years ago already been lost with the necessary support of the UNITED STATES there is going to be a price paid .
Israel can take on iran perhaps on his one but not the whole world.
Where will Israel be whit out resupplying used equipment, while the enemy,s of Israel has endless suply and manpower
It will be just a matter of time
So in mine opinion , Israel will do what the USA is dictating and will not attack iran and will accept a palestinian state on there doorsteps. and that even whit out a recognizing for the existence of Israel by the islamic world.
Israel will survive but will lose there interdependency, as the rest of the free world-
Israel knows it but is swimming against the current to try to change this diabolic plan.
Now you are asking me where is Russia in this plan, they will get an offer they can not refuse to play along whit this plan
I see a nearby future the world divided in 4 power blocs, a step between now and a world government what takes a lot more time.
And as you know the islaam is a perfect all in one tool what has proven to work great to suppress people
Call me a nut case, i do not mind it at all.
October 5, 2013 at 3:21 PM
Polyanna …
The use of this epithet is insulting because it is obviously inappropriate here.
Wether the epithet itself is an insult or not I leave open to debate.
It is inappropriate because as it is defined it refers to the behaviour of painting a rosy picture of the past, the good old times. while those who used it here meant a totally different thing.
This can be gathered from the context which I’m not going to repeat.
It was used to attack the notion: “It worked allways in the past therefore It will also work in the future.”.
So, if you want to use ad hominems and epithets use at least the right fucking epithets because, frankly, it makes those who use the wrong epithets in the wrong context look like idiots.
October 5, 2013 at 3:59 PM
Just an opinion, like a bare naked ass, everybody has one.
October 5, 2013 at 4:25 PM
Yep, every ass is allowed to describe anything as just an opinion..
October 5, 2013 at 4:49 PM
Yep call me a Joe six pack nut case dumb ass, i do not mind.
And if you want to proclaim your opinions as fact, go along i do not mind either.
And i see that JW has deleted my comment :
The Pollyanna principle (also called Pollyannaism or positivity bias) is the tendency for people to agree with positive statements describing them. The phenomenon is similar to the Forer effect. Research indicates that, at the subconscious level, the mind has a tendency to focus on the optimistic while, at the conscious level, it has a tendency to focus on the negative. This subconscious bias towards the positive is often described as the Pollyanna principle.
October 5, 2013 at 4:58 PM
As you should know by now, I’m not the pope.
Take a deep breath. And read again carefully what I said
I did not comment on your article as a whole.
I did comment on the improper use of the word polyanna.
I quote from the wikipedia link you posted:
“The “Pollyanna principle” is a psychological principle which portrays the positive bias people have when thinking of the past. According to the Pollyanna Principle, the brain processes information that is pleasing and agreeable in a more precise and exact manner as compared to unpleasant information. We actually tend to remember past experiences as more rosy than they actually occurred. This principle does not apply to people with depression.[c”
October 5, 2013 at 4:50 PM
Narcissism is a term that originated with Narcissus in Greek mythology who fell in love with his own image reflected in a pool of water. Currently it is used to describe a person characterized by egotism, vanity, pride, or selfishness; an erotic gratification derived from admiration of one’s own physical or mental attributes. Narcissism has included particular meanings in specific fields:
October 5, 2013 at 5:16 PM
Don’t know who you are refereing to but seriously you brought me a great Idea. What do you think of internet psychotherapy?
I tell you, you can make a lot of money. Yeah right. No more embarassing sessions on th red sofa. Total anonymity. You have just found a great way to make a lot of money.
October 5, 2013 at 3:51 PM
The Pollyanna principle (also called Pollyannaism or positivity bias) is the tendency for people to agree with positive statements describing them.The phenomenon is similar to the Forer effect. Research indicates that, at the subconscious level, the mind has a tendency to focus on the optimistic while, at the conscious level, it has a tendency to focus on the negative. This subconscious bias towards the positive is often described as the Pollyanna principle.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pollyanna_principle
October 5, 2013 at 4:54 PM
Sorry JW not deleted but i can hardly see this page, i do not know why, it is black/ dark bleu and not readable.I can only see the link i placed.