WarSclerotic

Winning without chemical weapons | The Times of Israel.

If Damascus hands over its nonconventional arms to international supervision, the move could strengthen Assad while embarrassing the US

This 1994 photo posted on the official Facebook page of the Syrian Presidency, purports to show then-captain Bashar Assad, looking at documents during a military project in Syria (photo credit: AP/Syrian Presidency via Facebook)

You’ve got to tip your hat to Russian President Vladimir Putin. The man whose life mission over the past few months was to head-butt the US and weaken its position around the world (especially in the Middle East), managed to do it again.

On the very day during which the US Congress finally gathered to discuss a possible strike against Syria; exactly as it finally appeared US President Barack Obama will manage to muster the majority he needs for a military operation; as Obama was scheduled for six national TV appearances about Syria — Putin pulled the carpet from under Obama’s feet and removed the impetus behind an American attack.

Moscow seems to have managed to get Damascus to agree to international supervision over its chemical weapons stockpile. The details of the Russian proposal aren’t clear yet, but it appears that the deal was the demand of the West this entire time — that Syria hand over its chemical weapons cache to a third party. It’s possible the offer will provide Obama, when time comes, with a way out of his previous statements about attacking the Syrian regime.

On the Syrian side, there’s no doubt President Bashar Assad had quite a few reasons to welcome the Russian proposal with open arms. If he agrees to hand over the chemical weapons he has, not only could he avoid a US military strike against him, he’ll also preserve the current situation in Syria, which gives him and his army an advantage over the disorganized and fragmented opposition.

Free Syrian Army head General Salim Idris reacted furiously to the proposal, telling al Jazeera that the Syrian regime was lying to the West and was impossible to trust, a sign of just how bad it is for those opposing Assad.

However, the Syrian president will be looked at by many in the West, including the US, as a pragmatic player “to do business with.” It’s almost unnecessary to mention that a refusal to the offer from Damascus’s most important ally would have caused Russia to ignore a Western attack in a good case, and in the worst scenario, have Moscow give the green light for his replacement.

It’s also important to remember that the chemical weapons used by Assad so far didn’t really help him in the battlefield. Over the past year he’s used chemical weapons around 13 times, mainly for tactical reasons — like conquering an area and clearing it of opposition fighters and local population, — and not a strategic goal like destroying those fighting him. The incident outside Damascus on August 21, which the threat of military action, was an exception.

In other words, the Syrian president can reach similar results in his fight against the opposition using conventional weapons, with a little bit more effort and some more casualties on his side.

And still, as far as Assad is concerned, there are disadvantages to the Russian offer. The chemical weapons he controls are the “doomsday weapon” of Syria. They’re threatening and terrorizing Israel and the West, and for Assad they are the final obstacle preventing the West from intervening in Syria.

Losing these weapons could endanger Assad and put him in a situation similar to that of the defenseless Muammar Ghaddafi. One can only guess that if Ghaddafi possessed nuclear weapons, which he had tried to obtain, the West would have avoided any military action in Libya and he could have dealt with the opposition in his country.

The American response to Syria’s announcement that “it gladly accepts the Russian offer to hand over its chemical weapons to international supervision” is not yet clear.

On Monday, Obama’s deputy national security adviser, Tony Blinken, said the White House would “take a hard look at” the Russian proposal. However, Secretary of State John Kerry has insisted his comments that giving up the arms could ward off a potential strike were not a diplomatic opening.

Until the US’s position is stated, we’ll probably continue to hear threats from the Syrian-Iranian axis meant to frighten Israel and weaken the Congress and American public’s support of an attack. They too, it appears, have decided to take part in Putin’s efforts to embarrass Obama.

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