WarSclerotic

Imminent US Attack.

The first objective of a US attack against Syria will involve the Syrian air-defense batteries. Syria has state-of-the-art air-defense systems it acquired from Russia pursuant to the air strike against the Syrian nuclear reactor in Dayr al-Zawr in 2007, which was attributed to Israel. On the other hand, the US has stealth aircraft and electronic warfare systems that would enable its aircraft to pass through the Syrian radars. It also has the ability to launch its aircraft to ranges of 20,000 kilometers – all the way from the US to Syria and back.

With all due respect to the Syrian air-defense layouts, staging an attack inside Syrian territory is not impossible. According to foreign press reports, Israel has already attacked Syrian targets four times this year. The objectives were stocks of strategically-significant weapons. In order to attack Syrian targets, it is not necessary to fly over Syrian territory: smart munitions can be launched from a high altitude over the Mediterranean Sea. Even before the bomb touches the ground, it can reach any destination in western Syria, including symbolic government centers and installations of the Syrian Republican Guard in Damascus.

An attack against the Syrian air-defense layout is required nevertheless, in order to enable the aircraft of the second wave, departing from aircraft carriers in the Mediterranean, to carry out strikes against targets deep inside Syrian territory as well. It is important to note that the Syrian-Russian anti-aircraft batteries can intercept the US Tomahawk missiles that may be launched from the sea, and hit some of the fighter aircraft, so neutralizing them is a necessary preparatory move.

Once the Syrian air-defense layouts have been taken care of, the US operation may consist of a straightforward attack against Syrian aircraft on the ground, intended to render them inoperable (the Syrian Air Force has no more than a few dozen operational aircraft, after two and a half years of civil war). Several symbolic centers of the Syrian regime will probably be attacked as well. In all probability, Bashar al-Assad’s chemical warfare weapon stores, located primarily in the coastal region (near the towns of Latakia and Tartus) and near Damascus will not be attacked. The attack will include the transmission of signals that would “confuse” the Syrian communication and form a screen of virtual fog around the actual events taking place on the ground. The well-oiled psychological warfare systems (including those of the IDF Intelligence Division) will not remain idle, either.

In the event that Bashar al-Assad accepts the attack docilely and avoids any foolishness, the attack will not last for too long.

With the weekend approaching, Israel still does not know exactly when the US plans to attack. Obviously, an early warning will only be provided a few hours before the actual attack.

The satellites, the other surveillance assets and the various monitoring systems (as well as the limited information the US provides through the ‘usual channels’) have painted a very clear picture. On the one hand, US forces backed by NATO are preparing for an attack. This much is visible on the high seas as well. On the other hand, intermediate-echelon Syrian spokesmen threaten to “set Israel ablaze” while the surviving elements of the Syrian Armed Forces have entered a state of sustainment alert; the military bases are emptying, all of the important equipment is being transferred into bunkers, and the sea ports in Tartus are being vacated by the Russian military personnel stationed there permanently. Russia understands that this time the US plans to attack very seriously.

A Short Operation
It is all a game of interests: this time, the US can no longer afford to show restraint. It is not that Bashar al-Assad or the Syrian victims concern the US administration all of a sudden. The number of people killed during the Syrian civil war passed the 100,000 mark a long time ago, and the number of refugees reached more than two million, and yet the US has not attacked. At stake here is something far more substantial, in the eyes of Washington: Assad interpreted the helplessness the US demonstrated thus far as weakness (especially when the US failed to operate pursuant to the use of chemical warfare weapons last March). That is why his people allowed themselves to launch rockets containing a mixture of lethal Sarin gas.

Now, the entire Middle East and in fact the entire world is examining the US Empire. In addition to the loss of face, the US has a lot more to lose – Barack Obama has based the lion’s share of his strategy on an effort to stop the global proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. If he shows restraint in the face of the massive employment of chemical weapons, this strategy will collapse. Barack Obama will reach the end of his presidency with the Nobel Prize he had been awarded early on, and with a world that abounds with weapons of mass destruction. This will include nuclear weapons in the hands of Iran, which is also testing the seriousness of the US “red lines” these days, as a “red line” had been drawn opposite them. Admittedly, so far it has been a fairly flexible line – but it remains a red line.

Nevertheless, the US has no interest in anything more than a reprisal operation that would preserve whatever remains of the US deterrence.

The Sunni Arab states, notably Saudi Arabia and Jordan, have a profound interest in supporting the US attack, as do the European countries that are members of NATO.

The Syrians have no apparent interest in attacking Israel in response to a US attack. A massive attack against Israel will lead to an Israeli response, which could lead to an attack by the rebels and the subsequent elimination of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Consequently, within the IDF, the estimates are that inflammatory declarations are one thing and reality is another thing altogether – namely that the probability of a Syrian attack against Israel in response to a US attack against Syria is still low.
Scenarios
However, if all of the decisions made in Syria were rational, it would be safe to assume that Syrian forces would not have attacked three rebel objectives on the outskirts of Damascus using chemical weapons last Tuesday. In retrospect, the timing of this attack seems particularly stupid as far as Assad is concerned: his forces were gaining a certain momentum after their victory in the town of Al-Qusayr and several other tactical successes. The rebels were in distress and the US appeared more pathetic than ever before and like a party that would never interfere in the bloody civil war in this luckless country, devoid of any natural resources that are important to the global economy.

In the reality of last week, the gas went to Bashar al-Assad’s head, and he allowed himself to take the Sarin gas out of storage, using it to butcher his own people. Apparently, the weather conditions led to a scope of casualties that was far greater than anything the Syrian Army’s Operations Research Department could have anticipated (if they had such a department to begin with).

Will Assad make another foolish mistake (in our view) and order his military to attack Israel? Is it possible that in a military where the chain of command and communications are not the best in the world, and possibly even dysfunctional, some junior commander will make his own decision to launch missiles, or will do so by mistake? The probability of this happening is admittedly low, but should not be ruled out completely.

Contacts
As the weekend approaches, the US was poised and ready to attack Syria from a military point of view. All of the plans have been finalized, as well as the scenarios as to how the operation will progress in the event that Assad responds “irrationally”. For some time now, the US has had a plan for capturing central areas in Syria through a ground operation that would require 40,000 to 60,000 troops, who would depart mainly from Jordan. However, the chances of Obama becoming involved in such a move after he had pulled his forces out of Iraq, and even before completing the withdrawal from Afghanistan, are even slimmer than the chances of the US launching a spacecraft to Mars next week.

The only thing that could prevent a limited-scale attack in the last moment is the fact that fervent international contacts are currently underway, as the military preparations are being completed.

On the covert side, extensive international intelligence cooperation is currently underway (including low-profile Israeli cooperation). On the overt side, diplomats are running around, attempting various last-minute moves. It is unclear whether the recent appeal of the UK to the UN Security Council was intended to advance the attack or to delay it. It is reasonable to assume, however, that the decision of UN General Secretary Ban Ki-Moon to postpone the return of the UN weapons inspector delegation that departed last week to inspect the site of a previous chemical attack (not before the Syrian regime cleaned and removed any trace of that attack in the area that should have been inspected), is an attempt to prevent the attack. The UN weapons inspectors may remain on Syrian soil until Monday. The US can wait for their return or strike before that.

The way things look as the weekend approaches, Russia has already resigned itself to accepting the US attack against their protégé, Bashar al-Assad. They will settle for restricting the scope of the attack and assuring Assad’s survival. Russia will find it difficult to accept the possibility of the US enforcing a no-fly zone over Syria after completing their air strike, if they have such an intention. As far as the US is concerned, such a move can be much more effective and significant than the actual strike, which would probably hit mainly layers of concrete rather than weapon systems or personnel.

Israel Prepares
One thing that is truly incomprehensible is the fact that in 2013, 30% of the citizens of the State of Israel do not have CBRN protection kits, not even in the storage depots of the IDF Homefront Command, should those citizens bother to ask for them. The fact that there are no masks for everyone is a major scandal, as the shortage had been reported prominently by the Israeli media countless times, and was even addressed in the reports of the Israeli State Comptroller. Yet the Israeli self-destructive mechanism was unable to remedy the situation. The reason: until this year, the budget for refreshing and maintaining the CBRN protection kits was not a part of the standard defense budget, and in fact, this activity has not been budgeted separately.

Senior officials of the Israeli defense establishment had no interest of ordering the issuance of CBRN protection kits to the entire population at the expense of the purchasing of other resources. The Ministry of Finance, which had to release the funds required in order to complement the shortages, is conditioned not to “spend” money, whatever the reason. Consequently, the budget allocated to this issue over the last few years was only sufficient to maintain a certain number of CBRN protection kits, no more.

This led to a situation where, if each and every citizen demanded the CBRN protection kits they are entitled to in the next few days – there would not be a sufficient amount of kits for everyone. Luckily for the IDF Homefront Command, the Israeli public does not understand that “the early bird gets the worm”, as otherwise, the lines that we have seen at the Israeli Postal Service branches issuing CBRN kits would have grown much longer.

Low-Profile Preparations
Regardless of the unpleasant scenes developing at the Postal Service branches, over the last week Israel had a clear interest in keeping a low profile and staying out of the world media headlines in connection with the imminent attack. A high Israeli profile could have interfered with the rallying of the international coalition behind the US, which includes Arab states as well. For this reason, both the political echelon and IDF authorities made no statements whatsoever regarding the US attack.
Not everything could be kept quiet, however: over the last few days, there has been heavy traffic of Iron Dome, Patriot and Arrow systems from central Israel to the northern region. The Israeli cabinet authorized the mobilization of reservists by emergency orders signed by the Defense Minister, and some of the reservists promptly reported this. Not everyone has been mobilized. So far, the number of reservists actually mobilized is about 1,000, out of thousands of call-up orders authorized. The number of mobilized reservists will increase when the US attack begins.

As the weekend approaches, under certain circumstances associated with the international conference scheduled to be held in Moscow next week, which Barack Obama will attend, the US attack could serve as a lever for some sort of international agreement, sponsored by the US and Russia, which would end the Syrian civil war. It is difficult to see how this may transpire, and there is no certainty that such an agreement will correspond to the interests of Israel. It can perpetuate several entities in Syria, all hostile to Israel – Bashar al-Assad, an ally of Iran and Hezbollah, the Muslim Brotherhood and Global Jihad organizations in command of specific territories.

This scenario is a nightmare for IDF Northern Command. “It is better that the fighting in Syria continues among all our enemies, than all of them turning around and facing us together,” said a concerned defense source.

Explore posts in the same categories: Uncategorized

This entry was posted on August 31, 2013 at 1:51 PM and is filed under Uncategorized. You can subscribe via RSS 2.0 feed to this post's comments. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.