Washington and Moscow Have the Keys
Washington and Moscow Have the Keys.
The IAF’s strike in Lebanon Friday morning went by without setting the northern region on fire. However, the risk of an escalation in the northern arena near the end of the summer remains considerably large – primarily due to the possibility that the US may attack Syria in response for the Assad forces’ use of chemical weapons.
This possibility became very tangible in this weekend, and Israel may sustain fire as a result.
Let’s begin with the strike in Lebanon: unless there are no unexpected developments, this is the end of an episode that will quickly be forgotten. It began with the fire of four rockets towards Israel’s Western Galilee region last Thursday. The fire was the handiwork of elements that identify themselves with Global Jihad. The IAF’s response was intended to signal that Israel will not tolerate occasional fire towards northern cities and towns, nothing more. Since Hezbollah is not involved, or because Israel has no interest in holding Hassan Nasrallah accountable at this time, the incident seems to be behind us.
The Syrian story is entirely different, and the use of rockets loaded with Sarin gas by forces loyal to Syrian President Assad last week seems more and more like a formative event.
The Syrian issue (and the events in Egypt) is at the core of every strategic discussion between Israel and the US in the recent period. Last Wednesday, when horrific images came from the outskirts of Damascus (Israeli intelligence determined that the Assad forces massively used chemical weapons), a phone conversation was held between US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel and IDF Minister of Defense Moshe Ya’alon. On Friday, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz and US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Martin Dempsey, spoke on the ‘hot line’ as well. Gantz updated Dempsey about the attack in Lebanon, but it can be assumed that the primary topic of the discussion was the possibility that the US will carry out a military action against Syria, and the implications of such a move from Israel’s perspective.
Dempsey will arrive to Jordan in the next week. More importantly, according to reports from Washington, the US has moved its naval destroyers in the area of the Mediterranean Sea eastwards towards Syria. US President Barack Obama held deliberations this weekend on the question of what to do with Syria.
The element pushing towards this dramatic US measure is, of course, the red line established by Obama in 2012 that the US will act if Syria were to use its chemical weapons. Up until now, Assad has ignored this red line under an assumption that the US is not really interested in operating against him. However, it seemed this weekend that the photos and videos broadcast around the world leave the US with no choice but to act in some manner (Assad can only be jealous of his father, Hafez al-Assad, who once massacred many without incurring the wrath of the world, in an era where it was possible to prevent the distribution of such documentation beyond Syria). The whole Middle East is waiting to see how the US will respond after failing to meet its own red line when Assad used chemical weaponry on March 19.
What halted any US action against Syria so far was a Russian threat to arm its ally, Assad, ith advanced SA-300 antiaircraft missiles and to veto any military action proposed at the UN Security Council (along with China).
The US will be interested in gathering the Security Council’s support for an act against Israel, such as in the case of the joint attack on Libya which brought down Muammar Gaddafi, but the odds of that seem slim. It may be satisfied with a NATO-based Western coalition (such as the one that was in Kosovo in the 1990s).
What are the US military options? The US military has had a plan for employing 40,000-60,000 soldiers in a land operation in Syria for a while now, in the form of the operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. Taking over the Syrian territory may be quick, but the complications would follow afterwards. The chance that Barack Obama will get the US entangled in an extensive operation in Syria after taking forces out of Iraq and before completing the extraction of its forces from Afghanistan seems almost nonexistent.
The US could also carry out a one-time attack or a short series of attacks with Tomahawk cruise missiles from the sea, or bombs dropped from aircraft to Syrian territory. The chances of this occurring are fairly high. The risk of complications in such a situation is low, but so will be the effectiveness: hundreds of people are killed on average every day in Syria. A few US bombs, even if aimed towards symbols of the regime, will not really undermine Assad’s rule.
The US has another possibility – enforce an aerial and naval blockage on Syria. Carrying this out will not be complex and the effectiveness of a blockage could be considerable (especially if it prevents the transfer of weaponry to Assad from Iran and Russia). However, the likelihood of this scenario is low, primarily with regards to a naval blockade, due to the concern that such a blockade could result in a head-to-head confrontation with Russia.
In any case, the US will attempt to get the support of the Arab world during Dempsey’s visit to the region next week. It certainly won’t carry out any military activity that comes from Israel. In the coming days, the US generals will look for creative ideas on how to respond (such as a possible limited commando operation on the ground) in order to present them to the administration.
From Israel’s point of view, any attack on Syrian soil has the risk of leading to retaliatory fire towards Israel. Assad will attempt to attack Israel, primarily if he feels that his regime is in serious, tangible danger (and yes, he might launch chemical weapons towards the country). All of the scenarios will be taken into account before a US response is underway, if any response does in fact occur. Israel is presently assessing that a US measure will take place. The keys to the decision are located in both Washington and in Moscow.
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WarSclerotic 
August 26, 2013 at 3:08 PM
First of all, we all are hoping here that the phrase : ”The US will be interested in gathering the Security Council’s support for an act against Israel, such as in the case of the joint attack on Libya” was a slip of the tongue or pencil because we really don’t want here, in Israel, that the mighty USA and fearful Obama will simply ”occupy” us, like in Samantha Power wet dream. After saying that and cooling down from too much laughs, we’ll step up in front of the line and we’ll reaffirm the main assertion which already has been made: no keys and no locks, not Moscow and not Tehran, nobody else but just Obama. Yes, Obama. The American Liberal President. Looking day and night at the same hellish photos, unimaginable and incomprehensive : children alone, like sleeping but they are not, children with mothers who hold them, all laying dead on an endless corridor of horror. This is beyond politics, this is way beyond any red, black or blue line that anyone might want to draw; here and then something terrible happened. May be certain people didn’t have the time to ”digest” the grave event, may be they didn’t ”dig” it, yet. However, in the end and without any connection between what we are seeing and how fast are we realizing the magnitude of the event, in the end, when all the actors implicated present themselves and the dead , too, we finally understand that something big, grave, irreparable and irreversible just happened in front of very eyes of ours and is not going back from this one, this time.
So, this is why Obama is so alone this time. The American president should not be envied on this one. This might be the toughest decision he ever took in his position, yet. Imagine to yourselves : Being too ”soft” and executing a symbolic punishment strike wont be enough, Assad and his friends will have a healthy laugh while Obama, America and practically the rest of the free world will suffer such a hit that it was preferable if no action would have been taken at all, in the first place.
So Obama, to start with, will need some friends here. Cameron of Britain seems good to us, really. He is a warrior by blood and wont give up a good fight. Its good to have him in your corner, in the eve of such events. There is also the French Hollande (Francois, of course) who has no doubts who and what was committed in that fateful morning, in Damascus. The French president has already proved his resolve when he send French troops in Mali for fighting the Islamists there. So we have an American (Obama), a French(Hollande) Francois, of course – and a British man (Cameron). And, of course, we have the mighty NATO behind those three men.
On the same side, but a couple of lines behind them on this gigantic Middle East chessboard is an important player who, in certain and very plausible scenarios might intervene in the game, transforming it entirely. Its, of course, Israel, that we are talking here about. The ”Israeli Factor” might be a decisive one in the middle of the hostilities and in the aftermath, too.
Across the board, the second camp is trying to control the damage produced by its enormous, fatal, blunder and crime, committed in that morning against the people in the suburbs of the Syrian capital, Damascus. Assad, the doctor, is stepping in front of the line, taking the heat and explaining things which are, in fact, inexplicable. He is still hoping to stay in power, even after such a development which meaning he doesn’t understand. He used some poisoned gas against some rebel people of his own country, so what is the big deal, he is asking. Saddam did it, even Hitler did it. Our Syrian doctor might feel somehow an underdog in this situation, because nobody made a coalition against them, solely because of those deeds. However, he didn’t take into consideration the power of the internet and the horror photos and videos which exposed the atrocity in its most unbelievable magnitude.
So, that was Assad the doctor, who in one lonely morning ”decided” to use poisoned gas against its own people, as a tactical warfare move in an attempt to ”clean” some problematic suburbs of his capital, Damascus. That attempt, however, didn’t finish very well, for either part. It was a foolish attempt and a criminal one which, in fact, was decided by Assad’ Iranians advisors.
The Iranians and the Russians can rise up their rhetoric, can make threats, but that is pretty much all what they can do. When the American British French join operation will begin and missiles will start cruising across Syrian skies, Assad will remain practically alone and he will leave the history stage as such, a well merited fate for a criminal, silly, sad man.
August 28, 2013 at 1:32 AM
Sir, you make many good points, but also a few errors;
The unconscionably evil Assad is a dentist, not a doctor.
I will not hear a good word for Cameron said when he and his cronies are busy robbing my fellow citizens of their humanity through his vindictive cuts that mirror policies that we expect from Damascus, Tehran, Moscow and these days Washington, only so he can expediently facilitate the neo-fascist totalitarian police state, parallel to the US, while he resides in his ivory tower counting up the zeros in his bank balance.
I can but only assume that JW posted this article somewhat ironically to highlight the moroncy of Western political “thinking,” for want of a better word.
I clocked the Israel statement also and it merely served to reinforce my knowledge that the author of this piece belongs in a lunatic asylum.
Shalom.
August 28, 2013 at 8:16 AM
To Steve Ward, a warmly shalom from Israel ! Thank you for taking interest in our humble written thoughts. And yes, I knew that Assad is a dentist. I call him a ”doctor” with a certain purpose.
August 26, 2013 at 3:16 PM
Resovle, it’s a funny thing and can melt over time. The longer it takes for the West to respond, the less likely they will. So, expect something soon or not at all.