Miss on the way to a bomb
Miss on the way to a bomb – Israel Opinion, Ynetnews.
Op-ed: Netanyahu must find new ways to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions; threats aren’t enough
Yoaz Hendel
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The issue of a military strike in Iran is no longer on the table. Reality determined this. The State of Israel had countless opportunities to attack the nuclear installations, but it chose to postpone the decision. The options decreased as time passed. The point of no return was crossed each year, and Iran continues its race toward a nuclear bomb.
A military attack is based on three elements: Operational capability, international support and political decision-making. The first element still exists, although the indecisiveness did exact a certain price. The time that has passed decreased the efficiency of the military strike and increased the risks involved. On the other hand, Israel is still in the game. The means for an effective strike exist. We can still damage the nuclear project.
With regards to the second element – international support – Israel finds itself in a problematic position. The recent elections in Iran dealt a devastating blow to the effort to create broad international agreement. As president, Ahmadinejad was an asset to Israel’s public diplomacy. Whenever he opened his mouth he shot himself in the foot. The combination of nuclear weapons, Holocaust denial and calls to annihilate Israel made it rather easy for Israel to promote its position.
The world was opposed to an Israeli military operation, but only because it feared the results of the escalation: Local interests that mixed gas prices with the negative influences of the Muslim world. During his first term, President Obama searched for every possible way to avoid a confrontation, but he failed. Ahmadinejad’s conduct was illogical. His statements damaged Iran’s ability to pursue its nuclear program under the radar. The diplomatic disputes he created brought the West closer to Israel and distanced him from the East.
Despite Washington’s statements, the recent elections in Iran gave the West a comfortable ladder with which it can climb down from the tree. President-Elect Rohani’s moderate statements are like music to the ears of those who object to a strike on Iran. Wishes overcome doubts and facts. Iran can buy valuable time under the cover of moderateness. Israel, for its part, will lose its legitimacy to act.
And if all this was not enough, the third element – the political decision – has become more complicated. For four years Netanyahu headed a government that would have made it easy to reach a decision to attack. Then-Defense Minister Ehud Barak supported a strike, as did other ministers. Netanyahu dealt with critics from within the security establishment and with outside criticism. He was close, but then he stopped. Now he is alone. The current government is comprised of new ministers with a lot of political power and of decision-makers who will have a hard time withstanding public pressure. The price of the mistake of a military operation has increased. What was is not what will be. New politicians don’t necessarily like new risks.
Netanyahu is left with the results of his previous term – for good and bad. To the PM’s credit, the international pressure he created led to a global awakening. Harsh sanctions were imposed on Iran largely due to Netanyahu’s threats. The West was afraid of Israel’s intention to attack more than it feared Iran’s intention to produce nuclear weapons. The problem is that deterrence relies on action and past experience.
Israel has an interest in bringing Iran back to the international discourse in order to make it clear that everything is on the table. In the past Netanyahu accomplished this with words, and for a long period of time it was enough. Now he’ll have to find new ways. There’s not enough room on the table. There are too many statements on it.
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WarSclerotic 
July 18, 2013 at 10:11 AM
This analysis fails to take several “realities” into consideration, first and foremost few people truly believe that any leader fielded for elections by the true power behind Iran could be considered a moderate is dangerously naive. Ivory tower types who cannot imagine or understand what a nuclear Iran will do for the long term security of Israel, It is simply not possible for any thinking person who lives on this planet. Much has been written about this. It akin to saying some new KKK leader feels moderation about African Americans, while moving ahead on biological weapons that systematically target black people…plausible….right. Those who are celebrating simply are wishful thinkers. Action, not rhetoric must accompany any meaningful proposals from Iran, more foot dragging and buying for time is the very obvious tactic employed here. Rohani’s election was a deliberate attempt to fool or feed the pacifists, and give cover to another 4-6 months of their fantasy. When it comes down to it Israel will strike, not without exhausting all other scenarios.
July 18, 2013 at 3:43 PM
“Op-ed: Netanyahu must find new ways to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions; threats aren’t enough”
This byline says it all.
July 18, 2013 at 3:58 PM
Try this on for size. Obama to Netanyahu “cut a deal with the Palistinians and the US takes down Iran.”
July 18, 2013 at 5:16 PM
Hamas is done in by Egyptian Army funded by Saudis, Hezbollah eaten alive in Syria aided with Saudi money, while Israel wipes out Hezzbollah in Lebanon.
July 18, 2013 at 5:17 PM
Then Peace deal with Palistinians….
July 18, 2013 at 11:04 PM
Obama knows if Iran goes atomic so will others in the Middle East, which would be grave for the world. Nonproliferation of nukes has been a goal of his. Soooooo why not tie everything up in a nice bow. Obama takes care of Iran showing others the folly of going for atomics. He gets a peace deal in the Middle East while Egypt’s military with Saudi money takes out Hamas, and Hezbollah gets iis ass kicked by the Saudis and Israel. PEACE IN OUR TIME.
July 19, 2013 at 5:41 AM
Israel can now be more flexible in its negotiations with Abbas because Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah have all been neutered. Israel’s security concerns have all but vaporized…..
July 19, 2013 at 7:30 AM
You write “Obama knows if Iran goes atomic so will others in the Middle East”. But it is totally irrelevant what others will do. The problem is what Iran plans to do.
Perhaps you should read what Bernard Lewis, a Princeton University scholar of Islam, says about mutually assured destruction and Iran:
In this context, the deterrent that worked so well during the Cold War, namely M.A.D. (Mutual Assured Destruction) , would have no meaning. At the End of Time, there will be general destruction anyway. What will matter is the final destination of the dead– hell for the infidels, and the delights of heaven for the believers. For people with this mindset, M.A.D. is not a constraint; it is an inducement…
Why are Bernard Lewis’s views on MAD ignored?
http://www.madisdead.blogspot.co.il/2012/05/why-are-bernard-lewiss-views-on-mad.html
or a German scholar, Mattias Kuntzel:
There are other dictatorships in the world. But only in Iran are the fantasy-worlds of antisemitism and religious mission linked with technological megalomania and the physics of mass destruction. The specific danger presented by the Iranian nuclear option stems from the unique ideological atmosphere surrounding it – a mixture of holy war and high-tec, of antisemitism and weapons-grade uranium, of death-wish and missile research, of Shiite messianism and plutonium
Matthias Küntzel – Antisemitism, Messianism and the Cult of Sacrifice:The Iranian Holy War
July 18, 2013 at 6:12 PM
Is this disinfo?
Yoaz Hendel is certainly very qualified to talk about this topic.
He’s written the best analysis on Israel’s military option I have seen so far:
Iran’s Nukes and Israel’s Defense Dilema / Yoaz Hendel
http://rslissak.com/content/irans-nukes-and-israels-defense-dilema-yoaz-hendel
Much has been made about the fact that Israel has no bunker busters able to penetrate sites like fordow.
In his analysis Hendel confirms an idea I had in my mind but I didn’t know that the IAF actually has the ability to perform.
“The IAF has specialized munitions designed to penetrate fortified targets, including GBU-27 and GBU-28 laser-guided bunker buster bombs and various domestically produced ordnance. Israeli pilots are skilled at using successive missile strikes to penetrate fortifications. “Even if one bomb would not suffice to penetrate, we could guide other bombs directly to the hole created by the previous ones and eventually destroy any target,” explains former IAF commander Maj. Gen. Eitan Ben-Eliyahu, who participated in the strike on Osirak.[27]”
Anyway, as long as there is the military option the game is not over.
Let’s assume that international support for Israel is zero and let’s also assume that Israel’s leadership cannot decide to strike Iran.
If Israel’s leaders are presented with intelligence that says “It’s now or never. If we don’t strike now it’s over.” I don’t think that anyone of them want to be judged by history as the one who allowed Iran to go nuclear.
July 18, 2013 at 6:23 PM
“In the past Netanyahu accomplished this with words, and for a long period of time it was enough. Now he’ll have to find new ways.”
Perhaps Mr. Netanyahu can show a Looney Tunes cartoon and draw some red lines?