Rise of new Iran president delays Israel’s military option by at least another year
( Dear God, please let this article be wrong… – JW )
Israel will have trouble mustering international support for an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities until the West can assess the election result’s meaning.
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One of the most significant results of Iran’s election of a relative moderate as its next president will likely be to postpone any Israeli decision on military action against Tehran’s nuclear program until next year.
Ever since U.S. President Barack Obama visited here in March, Israel has toned down its threats to attack, due to an agreement with Washington to wait until after the Iranian election.
But now, with Hasan Rowhani’s surprise victory last Friday, it seems the West will want at least several months to assess the meaning of this change. Until then, Israel will have trouble mustering international support for an attack on Iran. Though Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s associates have frequently hinted that this will be the absolutely final year of decision on Iran, it seems he will have to wait another one.
More than a year ago, under heavy pressure from Israel and other American allies, Obama publicly announced that his policy was to prevent a nuclear Iran, not contain it. But opinions are divided on his willingness to back this statement with action. Obama has sought to reduce America’s military engagements overseas, and would be reluctant to launch a new military venture. This is evident from his handling of the Syria crisis, where even his decision to arm the rebels was reluctant and belated.
Though Obama has orchestrated unprecedently harsh international sanctions on Iran (which contributed to Rowhani’s victory by causing economic distress), he has shown no enthusiasm for either American or Israeli military action against it. Now, as the White House’s statement on Sunday made clear, he wants to give Rowhani − who was Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator when it agreed to freeze its enrichment of uranium from late 2003 to early 2005 − a chance to negotiate a solution. And he wants Israel to give him time to make this attempt.
Rowhani’s statements after his election were largely aimed at Western ears. His message was that there is something to talk about, including on the nuclear issue. It’s hard to assess what the balance of power will be between the new president and Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, given Rowhani’s trouncing of his conservative rivals. But it’s clear that only by easing the international sanctions can Iran ease its economic distress, and this will require signaling a degree of flexibility on the nuclear issue.
Israel’s skepticism about how moderate Rowhani really is, and its concern that the West is being naive about Iran, are completely understandable. Netanyahu has good reason to fear that Israel will be left alone on the battlefield while the West agrees to an inadequate compromise on the nuclear issue.
Sour response
Nevertheless, it’s hard to understand Jerusalem’s sour response. What would it have cost Netanyahu to open Sunday’s cabinet meeting by congratulating the Iranian people on their courage in voting contrary to Khamenei’s expectations, and declaring that the outcome creates an opportunity to resolve the crisis peacefully?
Instead, the government played up an old statement of Rowhani’s that Israel is “Satan” − though this week, he actually referred to Israel by name instead of as “the Zionist enemy,” which is the usual Iranian term. Israel’s leadership is acting as though the only thing that interested tens of millions of Iranian voters was the regime’s policy toward Israel.
Another key question is how the election will affect the civil war in Syria. In recent months, Iran and Hezbollah haven’t hidden their efforts on the Assad regime’s behalf. The final decision will be Khamenei’s. But if the vote really attests to the Iranian people’s disgust with the regime’s direction to date, it’s possible that this could constrain Iran’s activities in Syria, or alter its obstructionist approach to international efforts to convene a peace conference on Syria.
Thus far, no credible statistics have been published regarding the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s losses in Syria. Unlike Hezbollah, which took an active role in the fighting and suffered hundreds of casualties, Iran has primarily been involved in behind-the-scenes activity − conducting training and supplying arms and technical expertise.
In the Lebanese media, some are already terming the Syrian conflict “Hezbollah’s Vietnam.” A similar debate among the Iranian public has barely begun − or at least, it hasn’t reached the media and social media outlets visible to the West. But it seems that soon Iranians, too, are likely to ask themselves why they should continue spilling Iranian blood to keep the Assad regime in power.
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WarSclerotic 
June 18, 2013 at 10:41 AM
While the world deludes itself with the ‘moderation’ of Hassan Rohani…
MEMRI: Iranian Nuclear Program – from Uranium to Plutonium
http://www.madisdead.blogspot.co.il/2013/06/memri-iranian-nuclear-program-from.html
let’s recall Winston Churchill’s words in the House of Commons in 1935 on the “confirmed unteachability of mankind”:
When the situation was manageable it was neglected, and now that it is thoroughly out of hand, we apply the remedies which then might have effected a cure. There is nothing new in the story. It is as old as the Sibylline books. It falls into that long dismal catalogue of the fruitlessness of experience and the confirmed unteachability of mankind. Want of foresight, unwillingness to act when action would be simple and effective, lack of clear thinking, confusion of counsel until the emergency comes, until self-preservation strikes its jarring gong – these are the features which constitute the endless repetition of history.
What is Bibi reading?
http://www.madisdead.blogspot.co.il/2013/06/what-is-bibi-reading.html
June 18, 2013 at 1:00 PM
This is completely wrong the opposite is true the main difference is that instead of the USA and Israel attacking it will now be all of NATO and all its allies and the arms shipments to Syria are just the start were going to arm the Chechnya too,Russia is going to get what it least expected and this is just the start
June 18, 2013 at 2:05 PM
Mladen, you laid it out effectively and eloquently.
Justice for Israel, what the hell are you talking about?
June 18, 2013 at 3:07 PM
Iran and russia is on notice from last night,there is no quarter,and no going back
June 18, 2013 at 4:30 PM
Justice for Israel, ok that’s better, that explains what you’re talking about.
June 18, 2013 at 5:43 PM
We don’t agree with the title of this article. The opposite might be true: when nobody is expecting and everybody is eating the Persian honey, Israel can surprise in a big manner; a very cold shower is in store for everybody pretty soon.
June 18, 2013 at 5:46 PM
E tu Luis? Have you been drinking Justice for Israel’s Koolaid?
June 18, 2013 at 6:02 PM
read between the lines John have a think about it everything i posted in the month was bang on maybe i know something,dont listen to the doubters the hit is on
June 18, 2013 at 6:07 PM
OK Justice, I’ll keep my powder dry for now and wait to see the fireworks. If they come, I’ll bow to your knowledge, if they don’t, I’ll wait for your excuses.
June 18, 2013 at 6:24 PM
May be I didn’t make my self clear enough: what I meant is that Israel can strike Iran, alone, very soon. And I mean, real soon.
June 18, 2013 at 10:57 PM
Luis, are you talking days or a few weeks at most. Because that’s what real soon sounds like too me!
June 18, 2013 at 11:09 PM
Luis, if you’re correct as with Justice I’ll bow to your knowledge. If wronge as with justice, I’ll want your excuses.
June 19, 2013 at 10:45 PM
what ever happen will happen we will still be here anyway there wont be any excuses am pretty sure that unless iran goes to the table with all the demands in the next month there wont be any more talk one thing for sure from every person i know who has a insight into this is the official out of public view policy is that this is the last chance now and that unless there is cessation and a end to involvement outside Iran the hit is on 100% this has been officially relayed to Iran
June 20, 2013 at 4:33 AM
Pretty sure? Now it’s pretty sure. OK, enough said. You’ve got NOTHING!
June 20, 2013 at 5:27 AM
Luis, I’m afraid the same goes for you!
June 19, 2013 at 1:17 AM
Israel must do what Israel must do.Irrespective of whether it has the support of the so called international community or not.When the rockets start to rain on Israeli cities you can be sure the international community will not even provide an umbrella to the Israelis to whether the rocket attacks and who knows what else.The jews I suspect learned their lesson well from the aftermath of their hollocaust.And they know what they ate facing with respect to Iran and the Muslims,
June 19, 2013 at 8:51 PM
It boggles my mind that there are still people that believe in an attack on Iran. Some of you (yes, you Luis) have been writing “real soon” for at least 2 years. How many years have to pass before you finally admit that it is not going to happen?
June 19, 2013 at 10:37 PM
Tehran will be a smouldering glowing piece of glass in the next 3 months believe us and that’s come strait from the pentagon your getting cooked,and if your an Iranian living in the uk our governments been building some really nice prison cams out on Salisbury plain to house you in Renbe,and just think one day soon your going to be dragged out of your house screaming and no ones going to hear from you for a long time,
June 19, 2013 at 11:36 PM
It boggles my mind even more that we hear this from the spokesman of the regime that is telling us for years that the coming of the 12.imam is imminent. In fact they build even a road for him.
We understand that you have to say to yourself that you won’t be attacked. It’s like the boy in the night who’s wistling to overcome his fears.
You’ve got to be an idiot to believe that the IDF is going to announce when it will strike you. It will be a complete surprise.
You’ve got also to be an idiot to expect us to tell you when they will strike. Even if we knew we would always tell you the same: It’s either soon or next year in Tehran.
June 19, 2013 at 11:51 PM
By the way, how is the monkey doing?
Send him my greetings and tell him that I won’t miss him.
Send also my greetings to the snake with the long beard.
Tell him that he does not fool anyone here. We know that he doesn’t stop being a snake just because he is now president.
The Iranian people were presented with a bunch of snakes from which they have to choose the least poisoneous one.
That does not change the fact that he is still a snake.
June 20, 2013 at 7:20 AM
May be yes, may be not. We’ll never know until that happen, if any.