Iranian public moves to forefront
Israel Hayom | Iranian public moves to forefront.
Prof. Uzi Rabi
Iran’s presidential elections this weekend made for good political drama and came with a surprising twist. Contrary to earlier forecasts, Hassan Rohani managed to overcome his five conservative opponents and was elected Iran’s new president in the first round.
Rohani is the only cleric among the candidates, but is also the moderate among them. He benefitted from the resignation of the two other reformist candidates on the eve of the elections and was able to reap the fruit of being the sole representative for the reformists facing an increasingly split conservative camp. The support he received from former Iranian presidents, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mohammad Khatami, proved to be very helpful as well.
Rohani became the default choice for the reformist camp and their supporters in Iran. All in all this is a clergyman who previously served in key positions in the Islamic republic and was a former representative for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Iran’s nuclear talks with the West between 2003 and 2005. Still, his demeanor and his remarks during the showdown with his rival candidates showed refreshing and promising signs. The emphasis on recovering from a destroyed economy and placing public welfare at the top of the agenda were well received and gave the impression that the “eight bad years of [outgoing Iranian President Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad” were over.
Rohani’s criticism of Ahmadinejad and the other conservative candidates for their policy of belligerent defiance against the West and the resulting painful consequences pointed to a different kind of diplomacy.
The real hero of these elections was the Iranian public. The rally behind Rohani’s candidacy during the weeks before the elections is clear proof that despite the fears of the ruling party’s actions and of voter fraud similar to the last elections, which secured Ahmadinejad’s second term, the Iranian public is determined to have its voice heard. The riveting activity and comments on the internet and blogosphere before and during the elections teaches us that, despite knowing its limits in the Iranian political game, the Iranian public is determined to express its opinions and influence as much as it can.
Khamenei made sure not to make his choice publicly known and it appeared that the regime did not want to alienate the populace by showing a preference for one candidate or another. The fact that voter turnout was high and there were no “Iranian Spring” riots was a sigh of relief for the regime, which sought to present a democratic proceeding and hoped that the riots which broke out after the election fraud in 2009 — would not return.
As such, Rohani’s election is also a warning sign from the people to the ayatollah regime.
With all that said, will this spell a change for Iran’s nuclear program and relations with the West and Israel? If he opts for different tactics, Rohani is intrinsically connected to the regime and thus its hard to believe he will take up a stance that opposes the supreme leader. He is indebted to the tens of millions who voted for him and its fair to assume he will dedicate his efforts to internal affairs and seek to fix the social and economic structures.
In 2003, after Iran’s nuclear program was revealed, Rohani was head of the negotiating team for the nuclear talks with the West under then-President Khatami. During those talks compromises were made and uranium enrichment was even halted as a trust building step and to avoid sanctions. During his election campaign, Rohani attacked Ahmadinejad on numerous occasions, declaring, “We will not let the last eight years continue.
WarSclerotic 
June 16, 2013 at 6:05 PM
Some important developments took place in the last few days and may be it will be instructive to point them out.
1.Obama, under heavy pressure from home, decided to enter with his little toe in the cold waters in Syria, sending certain types of weapons to the militants there against the Assad regime. This ”help” might be too little, too late, because Assad, Iran and Hezbollah have all the pieces in place to begin the grand offensive against Aleppo.
2.Morsi of Egypt is smelling the blood and is raising the stakes, calling back his diplomatic representative from Syria, while he is expelling the syrian diplomats from Egypt. The President of Egypt is also calling for a general no fly zone to be imposed above Syria and, by doing this, he also hopes to rally the Brotherhood and the public around his flag. In the past he tried the same tactics regarding Israel, but that didn’t work too well; lately, he turned against Ethiopia, with clear threats of war because that Nile dam issue, also nobody being to excited in Egypt because of that.
Morsi is hoping that this time, because of the situation in Syria – critique for the Sunnis – he will succeed to regroup the lines behind him, internationally and at home, too.
3.Jordan is starting to feel the heat and the King, for the first time, is making active defence statements, being worried about the situation which developed at his border with Syria. Its interesting to point out that the americans already saw those problems and have strengthened the kingdom with Patriot batteries and thousands of USA troops ready for action.
4.Assad is also under atomic pressure by the events and is shooting in the dark, meaning that he started to threat Israel, Jordan and Turkey while he knows too well that no action may be behind those threats. In the very moment that he will attack any state in the region, all his establishment will fall upon him.
5.The rebels are making super preparations for the battle to come for Aleppo. There is a strange paradox here: if Assad won’t take Aleppo then he will appear weak; if Assad will succeed to take Aleppo, the price will be so high that it might trigger the international intervention that the rebels wish so badly.
6.Israel is ready for Syria but its eyes are focused far away from here, in the direction of the Persian Empire. The mission in Iran is right now very difficult to start mostly because of the new president there. Obama is demanding time. So Israel might regret that it didnt act until now. No matter how we look at this, the Syrian War will capture most of the public attention in the weeks to come.
June 16, 2013 at 8:17 PM
On Iran – “Obama is demanding time”?
When since he took office in last 5 years (and even as a candidate) was this not the case???
Hopefully Netanyahu hasn’t waited too long already. Based on what I’ve seen in the media in the last couple years the summer and winter are poor conditions for a strike. So does this mean a wait until September now? Or has Netanyahu finally reached the end of his rope and action is coming during the summer anyway?
June 16, 2013 at 8:21 PM
Or not.
June 16, 2013 at 7:26 PM
And now 4000 Iranian troops are coming to Syria
June 16, 2013 at 8:20 PM
This is what they say. The number of the Iranian troops in Syria right now is much higher, very close to ten thousands(10,000 troops, ”specialists” and republican guard elements). If the Iranians declared that number than, as we know the Persians, they have at least twice men on the ground, in Syria.
June 16, 2013 at 9:05 PM
we spoke a number of weeks ago on the number and the possibility of Israel hitting Iranian supply lines. Do you think we are getting to the point where Israel will hit Iran directly inside Syria or will western intervention overtake that?
June 16, 2013 at 9:54 PM
If Israel will hit Iran decisively – which personally I don’t think will happen – the fate of all the army groups-iranians, Assad and Hezbollah- in Syria will be sealed, because they got their supplies mostly from Tehran. But Israel is not moving in that direction. Our top commanders are too much worried about the syrian front and dont understand that ”is now or never”; or, ”It Will Better Be Tonight”…
June 16, 2013 at 9:58 PM
…the exactly name is : ” It Had Better Be Tonight”. Who knows?