WarSclerotic

World powers and regional actors are increasingly converging on Syria, a development which threatens to mesh the civil war between pro- and anti-Syrian regime forces into the wider regional conflict between Sunnis and Shiites, as well as the global tussle between the U.S. and Russia over spheres of influence.

As the Obama administration announced it would begin sending aid in the form of light arms and ammunition to the Syrian opposition via the CIA, Iran has taken the decision to send some 4,000 of its elite Republican Guard fighters to aid the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad, the British Independent reported on Sunday. The Iranian deployment, if and when it happens, comes after the Iranian-backed Hezbollah terrorist group sent thousands of its fighters to bolster Assad’s forces. Hezbollah has effectively gone “all in” in support of Assad’s regime.

On the Sunni side, Islamists from across the region have joined the battle against Assad’s Alawite regime, backed as it is by the Shiite Hezbollah, who Sunni clerics have now called “The Party of the Devil,” a play on Hezbollah’s meaning “The Party of God.” The more Islamist-dominated rebel forces are being backed financially and materially by Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Up to 3,000 American “advisers” are now believed to be in Jordan, the Independent reports. It’s not known how many advisors Russia has in Syria, but the Russians do have an active port in Tartous, and Russian experts will need to train Syrian officers in the use and maintenance of the S-300 systems. Chechen Islamists fighting against Assad in Syria are reportedly in possession of advanced anti-aircraft weapons; and there are reports of hundreds of European Muslims fighting for the rebels in Syria.

“For the first time, all of America’s ‘friends’ in the region are Sunni Muslims and all of its enemies are Shiites,” the Independent reports.

“Iran is now fully committed to preserving Assad’s regime, according to pro-Iranian sources which have been deeply involved in the Islamic Republic’s security, even to the extent of proposing to open up a new ‘Syrian’ front on the Golan Heights against Israel,” The Independent reported. Assad himself has warned that should Israel attack inside his country again (according to foreign media reports, Israel has struck three times inside Syria this year) then the Syrian army would respond, and that a new front on the Golan would be opened. Syria is now openly placing the blame for the rebellion on Israel, America, Qatar and Turkey, saying it is a “American-Zionist plot” to destabilize Syria. Syrian regime media have tied the reported Israeli air attacks to simultaneous moves by Free Syria Army units in the vicinity of the attacks, and say that the Israel Defense Forces and FSA are in full coordination. It is unlikely that Assad will order his regular units to fire on Israel from the Golan, but he could “allow” Palestinian groups such as the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine — General Command to launch attacks from the area. If this happens, who will Israel hold responsible? The Palestinian terrorists, or Assad himself?

Meanwhile, Russia has been providing the Assad regime with diplomatic cover [three Security Council vetoes] since the uprising against him began over two years ago, and has announced that it will deliver on the sale of advanced S-300 anti-aircraft weapons to Syria. Russia will also sell Assad 10 MiG-29 combat aircraft, and, more significantly, will establish a permanent naval presence in the area by creating a Mediterranean fleet, including submarines (It’s going to get awfully crowded down there.) The Kremlin has also cast aspersions over the West’s claims that Assad’s forces have used chemical weapons against the rebels, of which there is mounting proof (just as Russia cannot see any evidence of weaponization in Iran’s nuclear program, despite incessant International Atomic Energy Agency reports to the contrary). “The deployment of Russian ships in the Mediterranean Sea is the beginning of a new concept of the Russian foreign policy,” Pravda reports. In other words, if Obama intends to “pivot to Asia”, which is Russia’s backyard, Putin will “pivot to the Near East” and bog down the U.S. superpower, keeping much of its resources tied down in the quicksand of the Middle East.

Israel’s neighbors Jordan and Egypt, meanwhile, are also getting sucked into the conflict in Syria, with Jordan playing host to American F-16 jets and Patriot missiles, as well as reportedly coordinating possible moves against storage sites for weapons of mass destruction inside Syria should these sites be about to fall into rebel hands. Israel, who is also reported to be coordinating with the U.S. on plans against WMDs, has vowed not to allow the transfer of strategic weapons, including WMDs, to terrorist hands, including Hezbollah.

Egypt has announced that it is cutting off all ties with Damascus and is closing its embassy there. Jordan is expected to follow suit.

While Turkey is currently embroiled in internal unrest, it is heavily invested in the Syria conflict. Mossad chief Tamir Pardo visited Ankara last week, and according to reports, gave his hosts intelligence about Iranian and Syrian intelligence activities inside Turkey.

Europe, in large part, has lifted its arms embargo on rebel groups in Syria. While some European countries still refuse to list Hezbollah as a terrorist organization, there is increasing scrutiny of the terrorist group’s fund-raising and other terror activity on European soil. Closer to home, U.N. peacekeepers are on their way out the Syrian Golan, and their Lebanon-based counterparts (the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon) are in an increasingly precarious situation as the Syrian civil war increasingly encroaches into Lebanon. Many nations who have boots on the ground in Lebanon through UNIFIL are also worried that if the EU labels Hezbollah a terrorist organization, their men will bear the consequences.

In Israel, the picture of Syria is as gloomy and uncertain as ever. Over the weekend, Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon told the Washington Institute that he does not believe that Assad’s victory in Qusair was a turning point and does not believe “Assad has the momentum to win.”

The problem with that assessment is that it entirely contradicts another assessment by another senior Israeli cabinet minister with access to intelligence information. “Not only is there a real possibility that Syrian President Bashar Assad will survive the civil war ravaging his country, but Assad could even prevail in his war against rebels trying to topple him,” Intelligence, International Relations and Strategic Affairs Minister Dr. Yuval Steinitz said last Monday. The IDF, meanwhile, has embarked on another week-long drill, just weeks after the country underwent a week-long homefront command drill to test the public’s readiness for a massive missile bombardment. In both cases, the IDF Spokesperson’s Unit said the drills were routine and preplanned.

The big question for Israel is: If Israel is forced to act to enforce one or more of its stated “red lines” on Syria (no transfer of WMDs, no transfer of strategic arms to terrorists, no fire at the IDF in the Golan), what repercussions will that now have? Will the response be entirely Syrian, or will Hezbollah or Iran respond directly? Will Israel dare to strike a Russian arms shipment to Syria, or will it wait until the Russian “advisors” have handed over to the Syrian counterparts?

With so many local, regional, and international actors flooding Syria, and with the increase in arms and advisors in the country, it could be only a matter of time until a trigger event sets off a much wider conflagration.