WarSclerotic

The Syrian civil war reached Israel’s gates on Thursday and now poses a sharp and immediate dilemma. What is better for Israel? The old and familiar Bashar Assad, with Iran and Hezbollah at his side, or a new regime that rids the world of the tyrant in Damascus but itself is unknown.

Israel has already been weighing this question for many months, and its assessments on the matter have received headlines (sometimes contradictory) in the international press. The very politically incorrect answer is that Israel, despite everything, prefers the known evil over the new and unfamiliar (which could be better but also possibly much worse).

This could be seen in the internal Israeli dialogue on Thursday, after rebels captured the city of Quneitra next to the border in the Golan Heights. On the face of it, this was an internal Syrian issue. But in reality, it was a headache for Israel. Not only was the border crossing at Quneitra immediately closed, but also the future of U.N. observers stationed in the area was again put into doubt. Worse of all, Israel now doesn’t know who is on the other side of the fence and whether they are with us or against us.

As long as it was the Syrian military on the other side, things were clear. There was a home owner and an address, someone to complain to. If that didn’t work, there was someone to shoot at in order to send a signal.

With the rebels, the question is whom do they support? What is their policy toward us? Will they heat up the border and start sniping at farmers or do they want peace? Are there al-Qaida members among them who will try to start a war of jihad here?

Late Thursday morning, those questions were swept aside when the Syrian military recaptured the Quneitra area. But Thursday’s events should accelerate debate in Israel over what to do if the rebels capture the border area for days, weeks or even longer. With whom will we manage affairs? Who will we complain to and how will we send signals? And is there a partner with whom we can reach agreements?

These questions will remain unanswered in the foreseeable future, due to the general uncertainty that envelops the conflict in Syria. While Israel is focused on the Golan Heights, Assad notched a major achievement on the main front in the heart of Syria with the recapture of Qusair by his forces. That victory definitely bolstered Assad’s efforts to subdue the rebels. But Hezbollah’s growing involvement in the fighting in Syria, particularly in Qusair, has prompted unprecedented criticism from the Arab world.

Israel is monitoring the turmoil in Syria and hopes that the sides will continue to fight each other without drawing Israel in. Right now, surveillance and operational alertness are enough, but the pace of developments in the north and their threatening potential could soon force Israel to make decisions.