WarSclerotic

Former IDF intelligence chief: Heavy Israeli strike would topple Assad regime – Diplomacy & Defense – Israel News | Haaretz Daily Newspaper.

Amos Yadlin says any attack by Iran ‘would be measured and calculated, so the chances it would lead to a regional war aren’t very high.’

Former Military Intellience chief Amos Yadlin Photo by Alon Ron

Former Military Intelligence chief Amos Yadlin said Sunday that if Israel used all its power to strike Syria it would put an end to President Bashar Assad‘s regime.

Maj. Gen. (res.) Yadlin was responding to Assad’s interview with Lebanon’s Al-Manar TV, where the Syrian leader said he would respond to any future Israeli strike on his country.

“Assad was very belligerent in his interview with Al-Manar and said he’s being pressured to open a front in the Golan Heights, but he didn’t say he’d actually do it,” Yadlin said on the website of the Institute for National Security Studies, which he heads.

He added that the response to any strikes Assad thought were carried out by the Israel Defense Forces could be symbolic – such as mortar fire or small-arms fire at IDF patrols, or terror attacks abroad or operations by Syrian terror organizations.

“We can learn by the experience of the past three months, but I’ve said that the fact that there was no reaction the last two times can’t teach us anything about the next time,” Yadlin said.

“The more massive his reaction, the more he risks a scenario he isn’t interested in – international intervention. He doesn’t want Israel to react with all its power, knowing that this would be the end of his regime.”

The website’s readers asked Yadlin about the events in Syria, Lebanon and Iran. “Israel’s strategic situation will be better after the end of the Assad era,” he said, adding that his preferred scenario was a victory of the secular opposition that “would rebuild Syria.”

Yadlin also spoke about the $900 million deal in which Russia would sell Syria advanced S-300 air-defense missiles.

“The Russians insist on supporting Assad because he’s their last stronghold in the Middle East,” Yadlin said. “They’re trying to reposition themselves as a world superpower. They see Syria as a last stronghold, a place they won’t budge from.”

Asked about the possible deterioration in Russian-Israeli ties if Israel attacked the missiles, Yadlin said this would depend on the timing. “If Israel attacked a Russian navy ship unloading the missiles at the port of Latakia, such a deterioration would be expected,” he said.

But he said he didn’t  think this would happen and that a possible Israeli strike against the missiles would only take place after they were in Syrian hands.

Yadlin said the system was “very advanced, developed, large and accurate,” but the chances it would reach Hezbollah were “very low” because it “strategically has no need for such missiles.”

Yadlin reiterated his position on Iran’s nuclear program, saying that “for all practical purposes, the Iranians have already gone beyond the prime minister’s red lines.”

Asked about Iran’s possible reaction to an Israeli strike on its nuclear facilities, he said “Iranians, as opposed to Sadam Hussein or Assad in 2007, would not be surprised if they got up in the morning and read that they had been attacked.”

According to Yadlin, “There would be an Iranian response, but it would be measured and calculated, so the chances it would lead to a regional war aren’t very high. They would be the first to be set on fire if the whole Middle East were set on fire. They would be the first to be hit in a very significant way in the event of a regional war.”

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