Israel can stand to gain from Syria’s civil war, as long as it avoids interfering
Recent developments in the war-torn country suggest that the events in Syria may not be so bleak from an Israeli perspective.
Despite the series of dramatic announcements this past week, it seems that recent developments in Syria actually point to the continuation of the civil war more that its end. The European Union‘s announcement – after debating the issue for two years – that it was lifting the embargo on supplying arms to the rebels was met by an immediate Russian response that it was committed to its arms deals with the Assad regime, and that it will go ahead with deliveries of S-300 anti-aircraft missiles to the Syrian army. The Russian deputy foreign minister stressed that the missiles would be supplied to deter foreign interference.
The more Assad loyalists are successful in halting the rebels’ progress, the more his supporters expose themselves and the degree of their involvement in the fighting. This was evident in the latest declarations from Moscow, but also in last week’s speech by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. According to an organization monitoring the conflict, some 141 Hezbollah fighters were killed in the last month alone, 79 of them in the last 10 days, during the battle for the strategic stronghold of Qusayr, near the Lebanese border. In other words: Hezbollah lost more than one percent of its operational combat power within a month due to its support of Assad – quite a significant number of casualties for a relatively small guerrilla movement.
The early evaluations as to the imminent fall of the Syrian tyrant made way, since the beginning of the year, to the idea that both sides have reached a standstill. President Assad no longer rules at least half of Syria, but lack of coordination and the military weakness of the various opposition groups prevent them from replacing the central government, barring an assassination of Assad.
The war’s damage is becoming ever clearer: more than 80,000 dead (with some placing the figure at over 100,000 ), a million and a half refugees, as well as some three million Syrians who are inner refugees. At the same time, foreign correspondents covering the events point at the repercussions of the civil war beyond Syria’s borders. Jordan and Turkey are horrified by its results; Iraq, and to a lesser extent, Lebanon, are experiencing civil war between Shi’tes and Sunnis.
In contrast to common impressions, Israel fulfills only a secondary role in the Syrian tragedy. Following the series of often conflicting threats sounded by senior Israeli officials in the past week, it seems the Israeli leadership is trying to return to a more quiet and sane approach. Minister of Defense Moshe Ya’alon, who was asked on Tuesday as to the S-300 anti-aircraft missiles, refused to say more than the non-binding “we’ll already know what to do.”
The war in Syria can damage Israel, but it seems that, all things considered, Israel can stand to gain from the war.
The obvious weakening of the Syrian army, exhausted by the constant killing, one must now add to the erosion of Hezbollah’s forces. Nasrallah is facing unprecedented inner criticism in Lebanon due to his intervention in Syria. This week Britain and France promoted an initiative to have the European Union declare Hezbollah a terrorist organization – a move that could profit Israel, since it might limit Hezbollah’s operations abroad.
One should not ignore Syria and Hezbollah’s threats to open a new “resistance front” against Israel on the Golan Heights. Last week, a rocket was fired from Lebanon into the Upper Galilee, even though its remains have yet to be found. Still, if Israel manages not to interfere, it seems that at least for the short term it could contain the situation on its borders and prevent a violent escalation. Without ignoring the risks involved in such an unstable situation, at this stage the events in Syria are not that bleak from an Israeli point of view.
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WarSclerotic 
May 29, 2013 at 4:06 PM
This article just begs for the following question to be asked: How can Israel avoid interfering if Russia actually exports the S-300 missiles to Syria? Or is Israel’s red line a pink line?
May 29, 2013 at 7:59 PM
Correct observation.
The answer is: Israel can’t avoid interfering in Syria.
This interference should be kept at an absolute minimum, namely taking out the S-300 and attacking deliveries of advanced arms to hizbollah or destroying chemical weapons before they reach the rebels.
It’s not in Israel’s hand to escalate the conflict anyway.
If hizbollah escalates the conflict they will be finshed.
If Assad escalates the conflict he will be finished too.
The Russians won’t escalate because their army is in no position to fight a conventional war on foreign soil.
The Russians are routinely overestimated.
The facts are:
– The Russian army experienced a dramatic decline due to the collapse of the Soviet Union
– They lack equipment. Much of their hardware is outdated or not operational due to two decates of neglect because of the economic collapse.
– Their army has shrunk from 5 million men to 1 million. It’s questinable how many of these men are in a condition to fight.
– The Russian army is currently undergoing a radical reform from a conscript army to a smaller professional army. This reform is marred by widespread corruption and incompetence of the bureaucracy. They still lack money and one big problem is that corrupt officers steal money from the wages of the soldiers. The soldiers suffer also from chronical delays of their payments. Many of the new professionals who signed up leave the army as soon as their contract expires. This reform wil take many years until it yields the desired results. This is why the army still has to employ many conscripts.
– The Russian army simply lacks the assets and the manpower to project power abroad. The have invested much of their money in their nuclear arsenal at the expense of the remaining forces.
– The Russian people is not only against any intervention in Syria but according to a poll 52% of the Russians do not even care about Syria and follow neither the situation there nor are they interested in Syria.
The facts show that Russia cannot escalate except if it escalates the conflict to a nuclear conflict.
I cannot see that happen. Putin might be evil but he is not stupid.
May 29, 2013 at 10:35 PM
Good assessment AR.