Israel, Syria, Obama and Iran
Luis Hershou
The events in the last twenty four hours are developing at a fast pace. What follows is my analysis regarding these developments and their implications.
Obama’s ”chemical red line” to Syrians was loud and clear.
The Syrians got the message, but one has to understand the ”middle east mentality” to understand their behavior afterwards.
Assad didn’t attacked the ”rebels” immediately with WMD on a grand scale. Instead, he began to test the West’s reaction using the “salami slice” method.
Small, limited attacks using the substances began months ago. The West’s failure to react allowed him to “up the ante” little by little until it became clear to everyone that chemicals were in fact being used.
Proof of these activities were collected by certain teams on the ground and brought to the attention of the US Administration.
Obama is now faced with having to take action against the use of deadly gas by Assad forces.
At this stage – and even later – it is fair to assume that no massive American ground operation will occur. Instead, special forces for dealing with the WMD depots there will be used.
It’s also a fair assumption that the US Air Force will be soon felt in the skies above Syria.
Bottom line: Intense American activity should be expected above as well as in Syria in a matter of days.
This is the ”game changer” the President has spoken about.
Now, regarding Israel’s position:
In the event of an American intervention in Syria – even a limited one – Israel will restrain itself from acting so as not to “jam” the American operations.
But…and this is a big ”but” – if attacked, Israel will defend itself.
It’s possible that under orders from Iran, Hezbollah may retaliate against Israel if Syria is attacked by the Americans.
It is really no surprise then, the sudden and division-level military exercise executed by IDF today in northern Israel.
Thousands and thousands of reservist troops are being mobilized with no advance warning.
The American intervention in Syria is likely to be a limited one that will not involve other related countries such as Lebanon and Iran.
Israel can be expected not to attempt to widen the war to Iran at this stage.
But…- and this is an even bigger “but” than the previous one – If Iran and its surrogate Hezbollah overplay their hands and launch missiles at Israel, then the theater of operations will be extended.
We will then be witness to the annihilation of Hezbollah as a military force in Lebanon’ .
It is also more than likely that Iranian nuclear facilities will at long last be struck by the Israel Air Force.
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WarSclerotic 
April 30, 2013 at 7:16 PM
How will Israel deal with Russia,
April 30, 2013 at 7:35 PM
Fine analysis, Luis.
But what if an American operation in Syria drags on for many months (for whatever reasons).
Can Israel afford to postpone the Iran operation?
Many say that Iran has crossed Israel’s red line already but even with my very conservative calculations Iran will have crossed Israel’s red line definitively at July 1, 2013 at the latest.
How long can Israel postpone this operation?
And is this not the perfect time to deal with Iran?
April 30, 2013 at 7:53 PM
Good point. In the beginning of the operations, Israel will restrain itself from acting, not in Iran, neither in Syria. In a medium run – a couple of weeks, maximum – Israel will find the way to resolve its problems, despite the conflict in Syria.
April 30, 2013 at 8:10 PM
I’m impressed Luis. Very well written and very professional.
April 30, 2013 at 8:13 PM
Luis, I have no doubt that the IDF is fully capable of handling Iran.
It has an impressive record and has demonstrated time and again that it is amongst the best and most innovative armies in the world.
Many times it has prevailed against overwhelming odds and has done the seemingly impossible.
I hope that you are right and Israel’s leaders don’t screw up.
April 30, 2013 at 8:42 PM
Really thanks all for your kind words. I’ll try to keep up the good work.
April 30, 2013 at 8:22 PM
Yes but Luis,to clarify this “US intervention” is a misconception its NATO intervention this will entail attacking Russian forces at some point,The Russians are well aware of this,they have set up several forward command posts in the Lebanon and there not messing about they are Alpha units,were actually talking about ww111 syria is not worth that,Obama will blink you watch leaving Israel in the thick,Israel would be best attacking Hezbollah, and iran now,as the response will be the same ether way,better to hit first as the first bomb thats falls on syria everything will be fired at Israel,were not joking here,all of this is really bad news for Israel,
April 30, 2013 at 8:34 PM
Of course the real irony here that you won’t here from the MSM and the Democrats is how much of Assad’s chemical arsenal which Obama himself is about to go to war over came from Saddam Hussein.
Just 5 years ago Obama’s main foreign campaign issue was to try to defend Saddam and pretend the WMDs never existed.
April 30, 2013 at 8:45 PM
Thats not even half of it Obamas loyalty is now being questioned by his own people
April 30, 2013 at 9:00 PM
I agree with the assertion that part of Assad’ WMD arsenal is due to the transfer of ”materials” which was done in the happy days of Saddam Hussein.
April 30, 2013 at 9:17 PM
Obama’s “red line” or “gamechanger” comment is again shown to be meaningless. He just said he wouldn’t rush to action in Syria in a press conference.
In other words, Obama is shown to be a liar yet again. Should anyone trust this administration?
April 30, 2013 at 9:48 PM
Thunderbunny has a strong point here…But, I also looked at that press conference live and I could see a certain body language which was menacing; we also don’t like Obama very much and despite this, we can say that should this president decide to launch the American jets upon Syria, no more press conferences will be necessary prior to this decision. If Assad will suddenly decide to cease the use of WMD on the opposition forces then Obama gain will be huge, for he had succeeded to terminate this episode without entering the war. If Assad will decide to keep throwing ”packages” on the rebels and thus testing the American and the Western resolve, then the USA jets will enter the battle and the sky will be the limit.
April 30, 2013 at 10:13 PM
You just dont get it Assad is not calling the shot’s that is why Obama is being cautious.The debate going on behind the scenes is about,are syria and iran worth starting WW 111 over,there is no consensus in Washington or London,Israel does not feature very much in the calculus.the reckoning there is that Israel has the capability to defend itself from attack,so there may be time to spare,there is no point pretending this is not happening as it is
April 30, 2013 at 10:35 PM
Responding to Justice For Israel :
Assad, personally, may be is not calling any shot anywhere but the decision to use those WMD was sure not a Russian one. It was from the Assad close entourage – or circle of close people – who decided that using nerve gas may act in their advantage. May be it was an Iranian call. Regarding the World War III, we are already there. It started, as many know it, in 9/11. Since then, it took many forms and places: Afghanistan, The Tora Bora Battle, The Race After Bin Laden, Drones At War, The Operation Pillar Of Fire and the list is still long and more is still in front of us. So, we are living now in the days of WW III, the great clash of civilizations.
April 30, 2013 at 11:24 PM
Your heading for a hard landing what i have told you is bang on,no exaggeration this is is the great game Mk3,Or cold war mk 2.and a cold war response
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/obama-preparing-to-send-lethal-arms-to-syrian-opposition-officials-say/2013/04/30/3084d0d4-b1a6-11e2-bbf2-a6f9e9d79e19_story.html
April 30, 2013 at 11:55 PM
Excellent article LUIS should of said that at the start
May 1, 2013 at 7:44 AM
Thank you, Justice.
May 1, 2013 at 7:37 AM
I do not think it is likely the USA will react in Syria. Remember a post months ago where Russia have moved and all the Syrian chemical weapons and ‘took control’ of it? what happened to that? Maybe Justice have some point here that needs consideration.
May 1, 2013 at 1:11 PM
Luis fully understands the point i am making,and is prognosis is correct in the context of it,i am pointing out the circumventing factors beyond Israels reach
May 1, 2013 at 2:01 PM
For instance this statement
http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=9107166336
May 1, 2013 at 4:27 PM
Are we seeing that Russians (really Putin himself, based on their long term interest) abandoned Syria and Iran (throwing them into international wolves). Russians partnering with Israel for natural gas production/transportation as we know Israel have some of the biggest natural gas fields in the world which will go into Asian markets (huge market, Japan is getting out of nuclear and going into natural gas big time) so that Russian still have European market to sell their natural gas to and help support their socialist utopia. Obama admin belatedly realizes that their Middle East policy is huge failure (Arab Springs) and see that Russians are warming up with Israelis so they turned 180 degrees and now giving latest weapons technology that Israelis needs (Osprey, bunker buster, sealth jet, mid flight refueling system, cargo planes, ground radar busting bombs et al). Russia, Europe and USA obviously given a green light for Israel to do their job to put out Iran nuclear facilities as well taking care of Syrian’s WMD and those radical Islamics, get all of them back to Stone Age (more dates farming as I love the dates). Those moderate Arab states obviously are ok with them and they can say those bastard Israelis did. So if this is the case, we are seeing Israel as the new superpower of Middle East politically and economically…
May 1, 2013 at 5:00 PM
Russia will never have such a degree of alliance with Israel – they are not natural partners – and Europe cannot turn on the green lantern for Israel, because the large masses of voters in many European countries are anti-Semitic to the bones and their governs don’t want to loose them to the far right. So we are the lonely wolf and America is still our only great friend and ally.
May 1, 2013 at 5:05 PM
My friends, who knows?
This much I DO know…. Israel, under any government, will fight all-out to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons.
It would be nice not to do it alone. But mark my words, it WILL be done…
May 1, 2013 at 5:02 PM
Wow! Trends! …..
From your analysis to reality in the field…
Thanks for the uplift.
JW
May 1, 2013 at 5:21 PM
this is not a time for comedy
May 1, 2013 at 6:07 PM
Russia needs Israeli intelligence on Islamic terrorists who target Russia (like the Chechen crazies who blew up the Boston Marathon), also wanting state of the art Israeli weapons technology like Iron Dome 2. Also Turkey making noises about natural gas rights and the last thing Turkey wants to do is to piss off those Russians. Good points about Europe’s voters, but they can quietly privately give green light. Everyone is tired of those radical Islams.
As for the Palestinians: they had their chance for a state. Arafat pissed it away. Their fate is sealed, as the stateless people inside the state of Israel.
May 1, 2013 at 6:38 PM
Russia is the prime instigator of most of Israels problems Russia is about to get its lights put out,Death to Russia
May 1, 2013 at 7:00 PM
That is true. Russia put all its money – literally – on Iran and Syria. The Syrian card is about to collapse; if jihadists will reach the power in Syria, Russia can forget about maintaining strategic points in this country; this is the reason Russia is so involved in this conflict, in the first place. Russia made another bad investition when it helped the Iranians to built their nuclear facilities. Russia hoped by that to gain some advantages in the Gulf and also contra-balancing the American influence in the region. But…- too many big ”buts” – the Russians didn’t take into consideration a regional wild card, which is Israel threatening to take out those facilities and collapsing all the Russian strategy in the region. The reason for which the Israeli threat is credible is that Israel security is being at stake should Iran go nuclear power. USA cannot attack in Iran with the impunity of the past because of the actual American political stage and the international players. Israel never requested the permit to act, no at Entebbe, no in ’67 blitz war and the list is very long. Every time the Israeli security is under serious threat and ”the sword is upon our heads” , IDF had no hesitation to act decisively to terminate the threat. This important fact must be well understand and learned, before one is starting to invest into a country nuclear facilities, while the same country has ”great” plans to terminate the Jewish State.
May 1, 2013 at 8:04 PM
Bullshit
May 1, 2013 at 8:28 PM
Then, the geopolitical reality is a bullsh!t, Justice. Negating this is not accepting the reality. I answered you on that ”bull” thing because I usually respect your opinion. Next time when you’ll bulling someone’s based opinion, do first a research on the issue.
May 1, 2013 at 8:52 PM
you wouldn’t believe what we have about Russias involvement we cant pass it on or spread were silenced but its all coming to head in the next few months Russia is openly planing Israels destruction and its assets with iran syria and hezbollah,hezbollah has russian advisers and planers working non stop,this goes much further than diplomatic help,this involes a deployment of over one thousand russian spical forces on the ground in syria and Lebanon russia is training hezzbollah to use the missiles and air defenses that it havs given to hezbollah in Syria is openly involved in transferring them to Lebanon,
May 1, 2013 at 8:57 PM
All this, even if true, doesn’t contradict our previous assertions.
May 1, 2013 at 9:20 PM
The USA and UK is contemplating directly military engaging Russia at this moment,Obama does not control the senate or house of representatives,they have all ready decided to deal with iran,the time is not right yet it will be soon,obama has no real political constraints he is following longstanding USA foreign policy,your real argument are about how usa foreign policy,you need to research how American foreign policy is formed
May 1, 2013 at 9:54 PM
You guys are throwing down some heavy shit, acting like you’re in the know. Putting stuff like this out there is not well thought out true or not.