WarSclerotic

Over the past few days it has become clear to the world that a nation’s nuclear capabilities do not guarantee that it will have peaceful intentions. On the contrary, North Korea is using its nuclear capabilities to further escalate tensions with the U.S., and Tehran is watching these events with satisfaction.

The nuclear negotiations held in Kazakhstan, between Iran and the six world powers — the U.S., Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany — have only promoted Iran to the same status North Korea is in today — a deranged regime with nuclear capabilities. This time, the world will not be able to remain oblivious to it.

We may have become accustomed to North Korea’s belligerent rhetoric, but there isn’t one capital in the world today that is indifferent to Pyongyang’s threats. Kim Jong Un backs his statements with actions: reopening the nuclear reactor in Yongbyon, deploying ballistic missiles across his eastern border and recommending that Russia and Britain evacuate their embassies. These actions have prompted even the most serious commentators to review every possible scenario, even a nuclear attack against the U.S.

Several weeks ago, former U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta admitted that Washington does not have a clear picture of the situation in North Korea. So who does? China?

China has assumed a significant role in the unfolding crisis and may very well be the key to the North Korean riddle. It seems that Beijing — Pyongyang’s babysitter, as far as the international community is concerned — can no longer keep Kim under control. This drama is unfolding in their own backyard.

The Americans are surprised by North Korea’s ability to exercise such maneuvers freely, but at some point China is likely to grow tired of these antics. China and the U.S. do not share regional interests and China also has its own problems with Japan — the Diaoyu-Senkaku island dispute in the East China Sea — so there is a method to the North Korean madness: Pyongyang is trying to play both ends against the middle.

Beijing does not want to see the North Korean regime collapse, which may result in an influx of North Korean refugees; nor does it want to see South Korea and the U.S. become even stronger allies. It therefore has to assume some responsibility in this crisis. Pyongyang may be cut off from the rest of the world, but it is not oblivious to it. Its nuclear capabilities have given it the ability to intimidate the world, and it is trying to capitalize on the differences between the regional players to get ahead.

There are many similarities between the North Korean and Iranian nuclear issues. The six powers held futile nuclear talks with North Korea as well, just as they did with Iran in Kazakhstan.

Being an optimist has its advantages. Some 20 years ago, U.S. President Bill Clinton was sure that he could begin a normalization process with North Korea. President Barack Obama would like to believe that he can normalize ties with Iran, but this game is played according to a different set of rules.