Danger ahead
( Ladies and Gentlemen, read this carefully. Its brilliant, its true and very well written. – Luis)
This region is always tense, but right now a series of separate conflicts are rapidly beginning to intersect. We see the Mideast, North Africa and the Sahara buffeted by revolutions and counter-revolutions. Old colonial powers France and Britain, and the US, are trying to reassert their domination in the region. The jihadist are back.
In a brazen act of war, Israel launched air strikes on Syria last Wednesday in a clear attempt to worsen the crisis in that war-torn nation and challenge Syria’s ally, Iran. Israel’s forces are on high alert and may invade Syria, whose strategic Golan Heights were seized and annexed by Israel. Will more Syrian land follow?
Goaded by Israel, Iran thundered “any attack on Syria is an attack on Iran.” An Iranian general warned Tel Aviv might come under attack. Hot air, as they say in Farsi. Separated from ally Syria by Iraq, Iran’s not very mobile ground forces would be unable to intervene in Syria in any substantial way. Israel’s air force would devastate any Iranian columns advancing in open terrain.
Iran’s feeble air force is barely operational after decades of crushing embargos by the United States and its allies. Tehran’s dilapidated warplanes are far more menacing to their pilots than their enemies. Iran’s passenger airliners are flying coffins thanks to the US embargo of new aircraft and spare parts.
The only way Iran could strike at Israel is by firing medium-ranged Shahab-III missiles and a small number of Sajjil-2 solid propellant missiles. Both are inaccurate. Their 750-1,000 kg conventional warheads would only do limited damage – unless they made a lucky hit on Israel’s heavily defended Dimona nuclear reactor.
Israel estimates that a major Iranian non-nuclear strike would only cause a few hundred casualties. Israel is fast deploying a multi-layer anti-missile system: the Arrow-III, which has shown high hit probability in tests against missile warheads. The low level Iron Dome system, which had an 80 percent hit probability against rockets fired from Gaza, and the new, highly accurate David’s Sling high altitude system, and more systems in the pipeline, give Israel’s the world’s most advanced and accurate anti-missile system that could be relied on to knock down a majority of incoming missiles from far-away Iran.
More important, Israel would quickly counter-attack once its powerful radars (and a US-manned X-band radar based in Israel that can scan Iran) spot missile being launched by Tehran. Israel has its own arsenal of accurate medium-ranged missiles, armed drones, its powerful air force, and satellites watching Iran.
How would Israel know that an incoming Iranian missile was conventionally armed and not carrying a nuclear warhead? Rather than gamble, Israel would probably hit Iran with its own nuclear arsenal, including nuclear-tipped cruise missiles fired by Israeli submarines lurking in the Red Sea and Indian Ocean.
Iran is not believed to have nuclear warheads – but how can Israel really be sure since it successfully concealed its own nuclear programme from the US.
Meanwhile, Egypt threatens to turn into another Syria. The Chief of Staff of Egypt’s armed forces just warned his strife-torn nation is on the “brink of collapse.” Conservative Arab nations, the US and Britain are fuelling a counter-revolution by Mubarakist forces and Christians. Egypt’s economy has all but collapsed, igniting violent social unrest. A coup may be imminent.
Syria is teetering on the brink of national collapse. The Assad government has no popularity beyond its Alawi base, but half of the Syrians don’t want to live in an Islamic state and fear what will happen to them if insurgent forces seize power. Syria’s economy has almost ceased to function. This bloody civil war threatens to turn Syria into a larger version of the ghastly 1975-1990 Lebanese civil war that I covered.
Russia is growling in the background. Syria, recall, is as close to Russia’s southern border as northern Mexico is to Texas. Washington is underestimating Russia’ growing anger. Israel is still determined to push the US into war against Iran. The Turks cannot decide whether to be neutrals or reborn Ottomans. Caution: danger ahead.
The writer is an award-winning, internationally syndicated columnist. His articles appear in the New York Times, International Herald Tribune, Los Angeles Times, Times of London, Gulf Times, Khaleej Times and other news sites in Asia. He is a regular contributor to The Huffington Post, Lew Rockwell and Big Eye. He appears as an expert on foreign affairs on CNN, BBC, France 2, France 24, Fox News, CTV and CBC.
WarSclerotic 
February 3, 2013 at 9:21 AM
Ladies and Gentlemen, read this carefully. Its brilliant, its true and very well written. Thank you, Joseph.
February 3, 2013 at 2:34 PM
I think it is pretty obvious that most of this piece is true. However, it states that Israel is “determined” to push the United States into a war with Iran. I think it is even more obvious that the United States is withdrawing its forces from the area which is making a huge statement that it is absolutely not interested in getting involved in a mideast war. One of the major reasons that the middle east is a tinderbox, ready to explode, is because there is a vacuum of American power. I my humble opinion Israel has longed understood that the United States, under President Obama, will not be drawn into a war; and the nomination of Hagel for Secretary of Defense says just that in neon lights. Israel knows it is on its own and even being resupplied by America should be questioned. President Obama sees that the American public is happy to ignore the Syrian disaster and keep their heads firmly planted in the sand. Americans will be happy to sit back and watch the firework display, EVEN if the price of gas doubles or more. They are tired of body bags, and seeing television advertisements asking them to contribute to unfortunate crippled veterans. These ads have a tremendous affect on American psyche. Therefore, I doubt very much the article’s statement that Israel is determined to draw American into a war against Iran. I believe that Israel most take action to stop the growing forces of Iran within Syria, and soon.
Secondly, the article states that the Egyptian opposition is Christian and Mubarakists. From my vantage point, in front of the television and reading tweets, a major section of the opposition are young people seeking a more secular government which will guarantee personal freedoms. I see or hear nothing about Mubarakists, though I am sure some might be there.
February 3, 2013 at 3:00 PM
A number of thoughtful and interesting points.
I agree that Israel isn’t trying to get the US into a war it doesn’t want.
What he failed to take into account is that after the destruction of Fordow last week, a war simply isn’t necessary to stop the Iranian nuclear program.
THE US AIR FORCE CAN NOW STOP THE PROGRAM IN ONE NIGHT !
Why do you think the Obama administration has suddenly grown some balls and changed its tune regarding Iran and Israel?
The “downside” of ending Iran’s nuclear program has suddenly grown very small…
February 3, 2013 at 3:46 PM
Thank you JW.
Just want to say that when I read statements such as” Israel is still determined to push the US into war against Iran”, it usually comes from people who hate Israel who are instigating anti-Israel hatred. Reading that line immediately left a really bad taste in my mouth and I wanted to spit.
February 3, 2013 at 3:56 PM
Norm…
Couldn’t agree with you more. Nobody ever accuses ANY other country of “pushing” the US into ANYTHING.
It’s the stinking remnants of the classic anti-Semitic calumny “The Jews control the world behind the scenes.”
“Protocols of the Elders of Zion” anyone?
February 3, 2013 at 5:12 PM
I have to say that al thou this appears tp be an accurate analysis,its is is not really its more speculation from someone who thinks he knows,ie iron dome 80% effective,That actually clearly shows that the author clearly does not have a clue,he obviously does not understand how target accusation works,iron dome is in fact about 98% efficient,how nieve to think that you would launch a interceptor for ever missile fired,only lauch for ones on target,
Irans nukes LMFAO,iran amy or may not have some very old nukes left over from the cold war,personally i think this is utter bullshit,but if they do they are very inefficient and unreliable and that’s if they have been maintained and you have to have a launch vehicle that fits the warheads Nukes are very heavy missiles,it is almost certain they would have a different trajectory than the lighter conventional ones.they are also easily knocked at with a single EMP pulse,North Africa is not worth a mention,those jehad’s are a joke,Russia is not the Russia of 30 years ago it ls a long spent power,a loud voice and small stick,the Russians know one small slip up will leave them with no navy or air force.This article is an attempt to try and scare its 80% bull
February 3, 2013 at 6:12 PM
Let’s all not forget that Russia still has a hell of a nuclear arsenal at it’s disposal.
February 3, 2013 at 6:33 PM
Russia’s nuclear arsenal true Russia has some very effective and nice nukes,and the beginnings of a new generation of missiles,NATO and the USA have fist strike capability Russia knows this,it is unlikely they would miscalculate this is not the cold war the nukes are to protect the Russian homeland from full scale invasion,the Russians would be able to launch some seaborne weapons but it is likely most would be lost on the ground obviously there would be no winners even if Russia was wiped off the map.the Russian defence doctrine is based on the time wave theory,which says it all
February 3, 2013 at 9:36 PM
The only thing Russia is concerned with is MONEY. They’re not going to get into any war unless it pays.
Nukes don’t make their bank accounts fatter. They are not irrelevant, but they won’t waste their money and their credibility in a loser conflict.
Afghanistan helped bring down the Soviet Union. Russia won’t forget that so quickly.
February 3, 2013 at 3:21 PM
The problem with Margolis is that he is a “conspiracy seeker”. Nothing is as it appears to be, and everything is so much more complicated — until explained by Eric Margolis. I tend to ignore the man and his ravings. He demonstrates all too well that “a little knowledge is a dangerous thing”.
February 3, 2013 at 7:02 PM
I tend to agree.
Too many writers pick & choose a fact or two, combine them with spin, opinion & disinformation to cobble together a story.
Sadly this is what passes for journalism today.
February 3, 2013 at 6:45 PM
Israel is reportedly considering launching an air strike against an Iranian listening post near Syria’s border with the Golan Heights, Britain’s Sunday Times reported Saturday night.
The Sunday Times story also reports, citing an unnamed source “close to military planners,” that Jerusalem is considering creating a buffer zone 10 miles inside Syrian territory, which it would patrol with infantry and tank units
February 3, 2013 at 10:53 PM
Unconfirmed reports of shelling and explosions in Lebanon
plus…
Future TV: A blast went off in the southern area of al-Fawwar between al-Hallousiyeh, Badyas and Deir Qanoun al-Nahr amid reports that Israeli aircraft might have detonated an electronic transmission device.
February 3, 2013 at 10:54 PM
http://www.naharnet.com/
February 3, 2013 at 11:09 PM
Unconfirmed on twitter:
BREAKING: Large explosion in Soor, southern #Lebanon along with Israeli jets flying overhead.
February 4, 2013 at 12:12 AM
Report: IAF bombed Hezbollah facility in Lebanon
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4340611,00.html
February 4, 2013 at 12:25 AM
Israel strikes southern Lebanon, say local sources
Electrical broadcast tower reportedly hit; Hezbollah seals off area
Times of Israel
February 4, 2013 at 10:22 AM
It was an IDF spying device which was terminated by the israelis.