Israel says Iran has pulled back from the brink of nuclear weapon – for now – Telegraph
Israel says Iran has pulled back from the brink of nuclear weapon – for now – Telegraph.
Iran has drawn back from its ambition to build a nuclear weapon but the respite is only temporary and Tehran will still have to be confronted by next summer, Ehud Barak, the Israeli defence minister, said on Tuesday.
An immediate crisis was avoided when Iran chose to use over a third of its medium-enriched uranium for civilian purposes earlier this year. Without this decision, Mr Barak told the Daily Telegraph that the situation would “probably” have escalated to reach its peak before the US presidential election.
But he predicted that sanctions and diplomacy would still fail to resolve the stand-off and gave warning that Israel and its allies would probably face the decision over whether to launch a military strike against Iran’snuclear facilities “next year”.
Israel reserved the right to act alone, added Mr Barak, who stated bluntly that any “operation against Iran” would be less dangerous “now” than when the country had crossed the nuclear threshold.
Mr Barak, the most decorated soldier in Israeli history who became defence minister five years ago, has one driving preoccupation. His central task is to prevent Iran from developing its nuclear installations to the point where they enter a “zone of immunity” – and become invulnerable to attack by Israel’s air force.
In August, however, Iran quietly moved to delay the arrival of that moment. Tehran took 38 per cent of its stockpile of 189 kilograms of uranium enriched to 20 per cent purity and converted this material into fuel for a civilian research reactor. By using a big chunk of its stockpile for peaceful purposes, Iran set back the moment when it would have the option of making enough weapons-grade material for a nuclear bomb.
Mr Barak said this decision “allows contemplating delaying the moment of truth by eight to ten months”. As for why Iran had drawn back, the minister said: “There could be at least three explanations. One is the public discourse about a possible Israeli or American operation deterred them from trying to come closer. It could probably be a diplomatic gambit that they have launched in order to avoid this issue culminating before the American election, just to gain some time. It could be a way of telling the IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency] ‘oh we comply with our commitments’.”
Mr Barak added: “Maybe it’s a combination of all these three elements. I cannot tell you for sure.”
Asked if Iran had not pulled back, would the crisis have peaked “about now”? In reply, Mr Barak stated simply: “Probably yes”.
Despite this decision, however, Mr Barak said that Iran was still resolved to build nuclear weapons, stressing how this was not only a threat to Israel, but to the wider world.
“We all agree that the Iranians are determined to turn into a military nuclear power and we all share the declaration that we are determined to prevent Iran from turning nuclear and all options are on the table,” said Mr Barak. “We mean it – we expect others to mean it as well. So it’s not something just about us. But we, for obvious reasons, see the Iranian threat in much more concrete terms.”
Mr Barak was adamant that Israel would reserve the right to take its own decisions on whether to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities. “When it comes to the very core of our security interests and, in a way, the future of Israel, we cannot delegate the responsibility for making decisions even into the hands of our most trusted and trustworthy ally,” he said. “It doesn’t mean that we would be sorry if the Iranians come to the conclusion on their own. The opposite is true. But, if no one acts, we will have to contemplate action.”
Mr Barak added that Iran was “moving forward on all other aspects as well, probably not in full speed, but quite intensively. So basically, it’s about the question of when they come into this zone of immunity, where no Israeli surgical attack, probably somewhat later not even an American surgical attack, can delay them significantly. That’s the issue that bothers us.”
As for when Iran will enter the “zone of immunity”, Mr Barak said it would probably be “next spring or early summer next year”.
He acknowledged that the sanctions now imposed on Iran, notably a European Union oil embargo, are “unprecedented in scale and depth and they are biting”.
But Mr Barak added: “To tell you the truth, out of long experience of the Middle East, I am extremely sceptical about the chances that it will lead the Ayatollahs to sit together at any point in the foreseeable future and decide to give up their intention to go in the footsteps of Pakistan and North Korea and turn into a military nuclear power. They think of themselves as a major regional power from the dawn of history and they are determined not to fall into the trap that, in their mind, in their judgment, the late Gaddafi fell into.”
Mr Barak added that the costs and risks of military action would only mount and the option of acting “now” must be retained. “It’s not a minor decision to contemplate an operation against Iran, but however complicated, dangerous – it probably carries some unintended consequences – an operation against Iran could be now,” he said. “Think of what it means to try it when Iran is already nuclear, several years down the stream. It would be much more complicated, much more dangerous and with much far-reaching, unintended potential consequences, much more costly in terms of human lives as well as financial resources.”
Mr Barak added: “Don’t misread me. We would love to wake up one morning and learn, against my expectations, that the Ayatollahs gave it up. I don’t believe it will happen.”
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WarSclerotic 
October 30, 2012 at 9:30 PM
We all knew Mr. Barak(Ehud, not Obama) to be a huge BS-er, but this story got all the trophies in that field.
October 31, 2012 at 10:11 AM
Wow Luis, we finally agree on something! Now it is time to open your eyes and see that Mr. Netanyahu is the biggest BS-er of all times.
October 31, 2012 at 12:04 PM
Note all the times the word “probably” or a similar concept was used by Barak:
“Maybe it’s a combination of all these three elements. I cannot tell you for sure.”
“Probably yes”.
“Mr Barak added that Iran was “moving forward on all other aspects as well, probably not in full speed”
“So basically, it’s about the question of when they come into this zone of immunity, where no Israeli surgical attack, probably somewhat later not even an American surgical attack, can delay them significantly. That’s the issue that bothers us.”
“As for when Iran will enter the “zone of immunity”, Mr Barak said it would probably be “next spring or early summer next year”.
It is obvious that they are playing with probabilities. They are playing Russian roulette : Israel is the head, and Iran is the gun.
Instead of solving this problem with an EMP. Which is the only way to put a definitive end to that deadly, maddening game.
October 31, 2012 at 4:25 PM
We need to take these reports with a grain of salt.
If Israel was about to strike it would be a clever move to act like the threat is still far off.
Last I checked the entire region is braced for war, and will continue to be no matter what the politicians say.