Middle East a Tinderbox, American Leadership Absent

Articles: Middle East a Tinderbox, American Leadership Absent.

( Very well thought out and scary as hell ! – JW )

By Reza Kahlili

The winds of war are blowing stronger in the Middle East, all because President Obama refuses to realize the threat posed by radicals in Iran and elsewhere in the Middle East.

Protesters in what seemed to be a coordinated effort attacked the U.S. Consulate in Libya Tuesday, killing the American ambassador and three staffers, and the U.S. Embassy in Egypt.

In scenes eerily similar to the U.S. Embassy takeover in Tehran after the 1979 Islamic revolution, Egyptian protesters climbed the wall of the U.S. compound and tore down the American flag, replacing it with an Islamic flag.

Just last month, U.S. intelligence agencies monitored a meeting between officials of the Egyptian and Iranian intelligence ministries, raising the specter that the newly installed Muslim Brotherhood government in Cairo could be secretly backing terrorism worldwide, it was reported yesterday. Members of the anti-Muslim Brotherhood opposition believe Obama has signed off on a covert agreement to support the Morsi government.

Though Tuesday’s protests were claimed to be over an American film ridiculing the prophet Mohammad, the attacks in both countries on 9/11 is a clear sign that radical Islamists are gaining ground in both countries to further confront Israel and the U.S.

This is while reports in the last two weeks further verify that the radicals ruling Iran are now closer to obtaining the nuclear bomb.

The International Atomic Energy Agency reported that Iran not only has expanded its uranium enrichment process both at the previously secret site of Fordo, which is 300 feet underground and immune to conventional air strikes, and at the Natanz facility, but also that it continues to stonewall the IAEA inspection of the Parchin Military site, where nuclear weapon experiments are said to have taken place.

Reports on Tuesday also revealed that the United Nations has received significant new intelligence from Israel, the U.S. and other Western countries that Iran has moved closer to building a nuclear weapon. The intelligence shows that Iran has advanced its work on an atomic warhead and that Tehran is expanding its weapons research on multiple fronts.

The Islamic regime’s strategy of prolonging negotiations and preparing for sanctions proved that Western rhetoric of war was a bluff due to the dire economic conditions in Europe and America. The West, it reasoned, would have to accept a nuclear-armed Iran instead of further confrontation that would worsen the global economy.

“It is quite clear that when we watch the current arguments between America and Israel over Iran, the Obama administration is quite confused,” Mohammad Mohammadi, an Iranian international affairs and nuclear expert, said in an analysis in the Keyhan newspaper, an outlet under the direct supervision of the Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Iran has always known that America and the West needed a way to solve the nuclear issue with some honor,” Mohammadi said, “and today it is quite visible that with the defeat of America’s policies toward Iran, the talk about a need to solve the Iranian nuclear issue diplomatically is a way to obtain that honor.”

Iran has concluded that Obama is not looking for a confrontation with the regime over its nuclear program and that he has already accepted a nuclear Iran. However, knowing that Israel could take action, Iran is trying to create a wedge between America and Israel, believing that the Obama administration is willing to turn its back on the Jewish state.

In that pursuit, Khamenei in a speech several months ago stated that in any confrontation with Israel, if America does not get involved, Iran will not retaliate against America.

The Obama administration seems to be taking up Iran’s offer. First Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, on Aug. 30 again warned against an attack by Israel and stated that the U.S. would not be “complicit” in such an attack. Then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton rebuffed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s request for clear “red lines” on the Iranian nuclear program, stating that, “We are not setting deadlines” and that the U.S. still believes in negotiation. And last, President Obama is refusing to meet with Netanyahu later this month at the U.N. General Assembly’s annual meeting.

Israel is not the only country worried about the Iranian nuclear program and the lack of action by the West to confront it. Saudi Arabia has repeatedly requested that the White House take a stronger lead in containing the Islamic regime’s pursuit of the bomb.

The proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which extends from Yemen to Bahrain and to Syria, is on the verge of a full confrontation. According to the Iranian newspaper Keyhan, quoting the Palestinian weekly Al Manar, the Saudi king has sent a personal message to Obama that should America help with the situation in Syria, the Saudis will cover all costs and will continue to keep oil prices down. Iran has warned that should America take action against Syria, Iran and its allies will retaliate against the U.S.

Israel is on the verge of a very painful decision: whether to try to stop Iran’s nuclear program on its own, knowing full well that the consequence of such an attack will be hundreds of missiles raining down on its civilians.

The events in Egypt and Libya could further complicate the already-volatile situation in the Middle East. A confrontation on multiple fronts looms. Obama’s lack of a strong coherent policy toward the radicals ruling Iran will create the very conditions that it wanted to avoid: widespread war in the Middle East and a meltdown of the global economy.

Reza Kahlili is a pseudonym for a former CIA operative in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and author of the award winning book “A Time to Betray” (Simon & Schuster, 2010). He serves on the Task Force on National and Homeland Security and the advisory board of the Foundation for Democracy in Iran (FDI).

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8 Comments on “Middle East a Tinderbox, American Leadership Absent”

  1. Zachary Smith Says:

    Mr. Kahlili certainly claims to have a wide range of knowledge. When i googled his name I found this:

    *** Meanwhile, Paul Muenstermann, then vice president of the German Federal Intelligence Service, said Iran had received two of the three nuclear warheads and medium-range nuclear delivery systems from Kazakhstan. It also was reported that Iran had purchased four 152 mm nuclear shells from the former Soviet Union, which were reportedly stolen and sold by former Red Army officers. ***


    Everybody appears to find it plausible Iran scooped up some ‘stuff’ when the USSR disintegrated. It does seem to be a reasonable conclusion.

    *** The proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which extends from Yemen to Bahrain and to Syria, is on the verge of a full confrontation. ***

    When I read that sentence the oddest thought popped into my head. If Iran determined it wanted to do some ‘payback’ to certain allies of Israel, why bother with closing the narrow waterway? One of their little toys detonated high over Saudi Arabia would undoubtedly shut down all oil production and transport for a really long time. World wide depression with $500 dollar oil, anyone?

    It will be really interesting to see who ends up getting blamed should any of the various nasty possibilities actually happen.

  2. Louisiana Steve Says:

    This could be true. Then again, who knows? If one could get info of this magitude by merely ‘googling’, then why do we have the CIA, Mossad, the IAEA, and every other watchdog agency on earth? I’d take this info with a grain of salt. I certainly hope this is not true. In the event it is, I can only hope our militaries are fully aware and are prepared for this possibility.

  3. Mark Says:

    A CNN poll in February 2010 showed 71 percent of Americans thought Iran already had nukes, with another 9 percent saying it was very likely and another 12 percent somewhat likely they would have them in the next few years. And that was 2.5 years ago.

    Sure there will always be those on the far left who will believe whatever lies the US government tells them. Panetta said recently there’s still more than a year left. Wasn’t that what they were saying 4 years ago when they came into office? It’s like time is standing still if you believe Panetta!

  4. John Prophet Says:

    The naïveté of the West is stunning. The Mullahs in Iran have their heads full of Allah and Devine intervention. They see the West as crumbling, and the Arab awakening as signs of Allah’s Devine intervention toward the ultimate goal of the global Caliphate. The words and deeds of men are less than meaningless to them.

     Those waiting and hoping Iran will come around because of sanctions are fools and Chamberlin’s progeny.  Appeasement is always the cowards way out, hoping and wringing of hands praying that maybe just maybe evil will change its stripes. It never does!  The West waited and waited hoping Hitler would be sated. He never was, he wanted it all. He saw the West as worms for their reticence. 

    Tens of millions died in WWII because Hitler was not dealt with sooner. The evil that were the Nazis has resurrected itself in the form of Radical Islam. Radical Islam is just as virulent an evil as were the Nazi. They also want it all, and this time if not stopped will have atomics! How many will die this go around due to reticence and a failure of leadership. 

    • Lion of Zion Says:

      My impression is too that Iran has already obtained a couple of nukes – why else would they dare to provoke the world as they do – why else would the US government take such weak and coward stand and throw Israel before the bus ?
      My comfort is that Israel does NOT depend on human help basically but on the help of her God ! HE will carry Israel through this difficult times – but woe to those who fight or forsake Israel – woe to you – you have the one and only God of the Universe against you – you will lose but Israel will praise her God as they did when they crossed the sea by dry feet and saw the egyptian army drowning…….!

      • Zachary Smith Says:

        *** My comfort is that Israel does NOT depend on human help basically but on the help of her God ! HE will carry Israel through this difficult times – but woe to those who fight or forsake Israel ***

        This is surely a comforting philosophy, but in the real world it didn’t help Hezekiah when he decided to rebel against Assyria. Nor did it do much good for Josiah when he felt big enough to tackle the Egyptians.

        The Jewish inhabitants of the Roman province of Judea thought their god would help them drive out their hated occupiers. Didn’t happen – they got thoroughly smashed 2-3 times.

        *** Avoid overconfidence as it will lead to disaster. ***

        That’s how one translator put Sun Tzu’s remark. Thinking your side has a special relationship with God and the other side doesn’t is a sure-fire recipe for overconfidence. And for disaster.

  5. todd Says:

    just a thought could Obama be the Anti-christ

    • Luis Says:

      We can only judge a man by his deeds.
      Obama is a Great Deceiver, he hates Israel and its God and caused a great deal of turmoil across the Arab World by his strange ” leading from behind ” politics. He also will bring the USA on the brink of bankrupcy, destroying the single state in the world which was founded on the basis of an Idea.

      Now, you tell me, who do you think Obama really is ?

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