Iran might not retaliate against an Israeli strike, says vice prime minister
Iran might not retaliate against an Israeli strike, says vice prime minister | The Times of Israel.
Silvan Shalom, who opposes Israeli intervention and says he hopes ‘we don’t arrive at such scenarios,’ also notes Tehran has limited missile arsenal
Iran may not necessarily retaliate should its nuclear facilities be attacked by Israel. And even if it does, Tehran does not possess unlimited missiles, Vice Prime Minister Silvan Shalom, who opposes an Israeli strike on Iran at this stage, said on Monday.
And while Syria, Lebanon, and/or Hamas might attack Israel in the aftermath of a strike on Iran’s nuclear weapons program, Israel could hit back at infrastructure critical to everyday life such as power plants and refineries, Shalom added.
“I hope we don’t arrive at such scenarios,” the vice premier stressed, in an interview on Israel Radio.
Iran has stated repeatedly that it would hit back at Israel were it to come under Israeli attack.
Shalom said he expects the international community to levy “real sanctions” on Iran, capable of forcing it to give up its nuclear program. One such measure would be stricter sanctions on Iran’s central bank, Shalom said.
He also reiterated that Israel should allow more time for sanctions before considering a resort to military action.
On Sunday, in comments that contrasted with reports that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak have all-but decided on the need for a military strike, Shalom had told Army Radio: “If the sanctions are for real, they get the job done. We saw that with the apartheid era in South Africa, we saw it with Libya’s nuclear program and we saw it with North Korea… Maybe we’ll see them work against Iran.”
Shalom said in that interview that the current sanctions placed by the international community on Iran were not effective enough to bring about a 180 degree shift in Iran’s nuclear policy, but that if the regime is made to feel it is at risk, it could abandon its nuclear ambitions.
The former foreign minister said that Russia and China were not going to support tougher sanctions, fearing rising energy costs and the loss of regional influence, but that the US and Europe could do more than they were doing at present.
When asked if he sided with the prime minister on the necessity of an Israeli strike on Iran, Shalom said, “I believe we still have time to convince the Americans to implement tougher sanctions.”
On Friday, Channel 2 News devoted much of its evening program to the issue of Iran, positing that Netanyahu and Barak are “almost ready” to approve an Israeli military attack despite opposition from the Obama administration and from many Israeli security chiefs. Several Hebrew newspapers have carried similar assessments, apparently based on briefings by people close to the prime minister and defense minister.
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WarSclerotic 
October 10, 2015 at 3:44 AM
Please do not yell , and writing in only capital letters is yelling .
With your education you have to know that .
October 10, 2015 at 12:20 PM
“I believe we still have time to convince the Americans to implement tougher sanctions.”
Why does Israel have to go and convince anyone to implement economic sanctions on other countries?
Do it yourselves, Mr. Shalom.
Same with a pre-emptive strike.
Why send other countries soldiers to fight for you?
Why send other people’s lives to hell?
If you want to attack, so be it.
But get ready to pay a price.
Or is it that you guys don’t want to do it on your own because it will be an absolute nightmare for Israel… and you flippin’ know it?
October 10, 2015 at 12:57 PM
David , that is to simple, Israel in not a super power and depending on support for their actions.
And that support depends from the geo political situation, changing trough times, perhaps Israel is not reacting fast enough at the changes .
But what do i know? I still have trust in the Israeli political craftsmanship to direct the events in a favorable direction for Israel.
That craftsmanship has brought Israel where it is now , an amazing development in the 65 years of existence , most country,s can no do in 650 years what Israel has done in 65 years.
And as the ultimate last resort there is also the not complete known military force of Israel .
Israel do not ask and has not ask other country,s to fight for them .
But for support to protect themselves, militarily and political.
The request for a preemptive strike on Iran by the USA was not only for Israel but for stabilizing the whole middle east, by not doings this in time ( that window is closed for years now ) we arrived in this middle east turmoil .
Stabilizing the middle east would have been mulch better than the destabilizing actions from the last 15 years .
We will see the result of this Iran treaty signed by the 5+1, and Israel has to go against this treaty militarily ?
Come on , only political craftsmanship can keep Israel save at this moment on the international stage .
October 10, 2015 at 1:39 PM
I do not agree with you on this one my friend.
The vast majority of Israel’s development has come from a huge amount of billions of US$ from both the US and Germany.
Last two examples?
a) Last year’s war against Hamas in the Gaza strip.
Just a few days before the conflict ended, the Israeli government asked for another 3 billion, and more Patriot missiles for their Iron Dome defense.
Which indicates to me that they were starting to have some problems against shitty rockets fired by the fuckin’ terrorists from Hamas.
b) All their nuclear submarines (Dolphins is their name) are made in the docks of Hamburg.
Finally, what can keep Israel safe at this moment on the international stage is to not meddle with Iran or Syria, and keep themselves behind the borders.
Igniting the conflict even more would be reckless, imo.
No wonder why all the latest bosses of Aman, Shin Bet and Mossad are AGAINST the intervention.
And thinking that bombing Syria’s, Lebanon’s or Iran’s infrastructures (roads, water tanks, electricity plants, etc…) will produce no retaliation is living in wonderland… especially with Russia dominating the whole air space.
And it will be even worse and more difficult if China decides to get involved from next month onwards.
I normally agree with your points of view, but this is an exception joop.
And as you and me have posted here, we know where the world is heading to.
And one of the consequences of that new way we’re heading is that Israel will no longer be able to do as it pleases in the M.E.
What I think about the future of that country, and of Jerusalem, you and me have already written about it.
As we always say, time will tell.
October 10, 2015 at 2:54 PM
The 3 billion is nice but , it is just 1% of Israel GDP , not that much .
The German payment was 3 billion in a time hard needed.
GDP $286.840 billion (PPP 2014)[1]
$305. 707 billion (nominal 2014)[1]
Exports $62.5 billion FOB (2011 est.; 54th)
Please read this
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Israel
a grow rate of 3,5 % ,
http://www.oecd.org/economy/israel-economic-forecast-summary.htm
A figure most of the country,s in the world would like to have that .
Big international investments in Israel, from nearly nothing to a high tech society in 65 years !
Still a lot has to be done , but it is for me amazing , can you imagine if Israel did not have to invest so much in the military, and to take in so many Jews from all over the world to give them a home how the economy would be ?
I bet you one of the strongest in the world .
Now in 65 year from nothing to place 31 gdp pro captiva
http://www.oecd.org/economy/israel-economic-forecast-summary.htm
The Netherlands after 400 years trading and building place 12
Spain at place 30 after how many years ?
October 10, 2015 at 4:23 PM
Thanks for the links provided for reading.
The economy is a big issue for every country, but it’s not the point here.
The point here is what Silvan Shalom is saying about an intervention and RESPONSIBILITIES re who attacks who.
Israel is the most advanced country in the region, no doubt about it. I don’t think anyone would state the contrary. At least anyone with half a neuron.
The point here is that if they throw more gasoline into the conflict, and if they attack another sovereign country… they need to understand that there will be huge problems for them, because the other country (or countries, because he’s talking about attacking more than one) will retaliate for sure.
It’s absolutely normal.
Or do you think that if the UK, US, Russia, China, france, Italy, Germany… or even Israel for that matter would not retaliate? Eh?
Before launching an attack like that you need to weigh the pros and the cons.
And I wonder why the highest echelons of both US and Israeli intelligence are not in favor of an attack.
That’s all I say.
October 10, 2015 at 4:27 PM
Economy ( international and national ) is a point here, it is one of the basics factors in this turmoil .
Nothing is separate everything is intertwined .
The window for a preemptive strike from Israel on iran is a long time ago closed , as i said several times .
And i see in the nearby future no opportunity,s for Israel to do so .
But if iran makes a mistake and attack Israel or fuel her proxy,s to do so , it will be a complete different ball game .
I,am 100% convinced that Israel is not going under without a fight , if the existence of Israel in at stake .
October 10, 2015 at 5:08 PM
Now we are getting closer to an agreement.
I also think that the window for an attack is non existent.
And you see, you’re applying the same logic that I was stating before… which again makes me happy.
Yes, should Iran strike Israel (though I think it will NOT happen), then the latter will have all the reason to retaliate.
I think this tug-of-war in the Middle East is just everyone trying to get a position as strong and to their own advantage as they can for the future negotiations that, sponsored by the UN (maybe in Geneva?), will try and settle the whole regional problem once and for all.
October 10, 2015 at 5:33 PM
future negotiations that, sponsored by the UN (maybe in Geneva?), will try and settle the whole regional problem once and for all.
Nope , it will NOT, the islamo fractions will never accept it , at best for a short time, max 10 years, the world has to be dar al islaam , under the rule of?
Saudi, Iran Turkey , Egypt , please tell me , who will control the Islamic world so it will be accepted by the Islamic world, for sure NOT the UN .
And in their vision there is no place for Israel in the middle east .
October 10, 2015 at 5:52 PM
Yes, it will take time (15? 20? years).
Israel will not disappear.
Who? I don’t know the name of the future organization, but whatever the HQ’s of the future world government will be called.
October 10, 2015 at 6:05 PM
Nope there can not be peace as long the world is dar al harb and not dar al islaam.
At best a hudna
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hudna
http://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/236310/when-cease-fire-not-cease-fire-david-bedein
http://www.meforum.org/2095/islams-doctrines-of-deception
http://www.pij.org/details.php?id=860