WarSclerotic

Posted by Rupert Prince Consulting.

If my Israeli friends will permit a British supporter, who is not Jewish, to put his oar into the water, could I, with due deference, enter the debate about Joseph’s recent posting on EMP weapons, a reprint of his article of June 2010.

There have been some very cogent and well argued replies to JW, which take a different view. They make good points, which should be considered carefully. Particularly if you an ethical human being and more particularly if you are an Israeli, having to live directly with the consequences of the decision to go with EMP weapons.

However, I am afraid that I have to go along with many of the points that JW made back in 2010.

He is absolutely right in pointing out the similarities to 1939, when the world prevaricated and Jews died in their millions as a result. That inaction cannot be allowed to happen again. The world let the Jews down once. They must not be allowed to do so again. Even if Israel has to go alone to remove the existential threat.

That threat, by the way, as many world politicians (I hesitate to call them “Statesmen”) cannot see, or do see and then ignore, is to the world, not just to Israel. I agree with JW’s assessment. Iran with nuclear weapons, not least EMP weapons, is a universal threat.

Now, as a defence and geopolitical analyst, I have come to the same conclusions as JW, from a rather similar viewpoint. Could I explain why?

Like JW, I have been watching the Iranian threat develop for a number of years and I have been warning our clients, and our national leaders, that Israel may find the use of EMP weapons the only logical solution to an increasingly complex problem.

Pure logic alone, disregarding other factors, must lead an analyst to this conclusion, if our analysis is correct, that is. It may not be correct, of course, and many in the Political Establishment and the Intelligence Community will disagree with our take on the situation.

So what do you think? Here is how we see it:

1. Iran wishes to destroy Israel.

2. Iran wishes to spread their version of Shia Islam throughout a new Caliphate, encompassing the whole world. No dissent allowed.

3. Iran is much closer than most “experts” say (as we have consistently forecast) to producing deliverable nuclear missiles.

4. Iran probably has, in our balanced estimation, at least two nuclear cruise missiles, obtained from Ukraine.

5. Iran could use the warheads of these missiles in a non conventional way at any time, if we are correct. Think of a small ship off the Israeli coast.

6. Not enough attention has been paid, in our view, by the West, to the considerable threat from Iran’s chemical and biological weapons. We particularly note anthrax here.

7. Iran is working on the technology to produce and deliver EMP weapons of their own. There are reliable reports of missile tests in The Caspian Sea, work on high altitude triggers and assistance from the North Koreans.

8. Iran with EMP weapons, either directly, or through proxies, could hold the world to ransom. They would have greater power than the Nazis in 1939. Even the mighty US will become a “one bomb” country if that bomb is an EMP device.

9. Therefore Iran, we believe, must be stopped-at all costs and now.

10. Clearly, if the Obama administration could be relied upon to act before it is too late, it would be infinitely preferable for the US to use its massive attack capability to remove the Iranian threat.

11. However, it is clear that the Obama administration cannot be relied upon.

12. We know that Obama prevented an earlier planned attack by Israel on Iran. If that attack had gone ahead, we would not be in such a dangerous situation now.

13. If, therefore, the Obama administration cannot be relied on (unlike the Pentagon and the CIA, we believe, who do understand the situation, as do  probably most of the US population) Israel may be forced to go alone. Not by choice but by necessity.

14. Having pored for many hours over the statistics and the various possible attack plans, and accepting the ability of the Israelis to think and plan imaginatively, it is still a difficult situation-if limited to conventional weapons.

15. How does Israel knock out control and command systems, anti-aircraft systems, the nuclear targets and at the same time stop any retaliation of consequence in one raid or a sequence of raids?

16. Tactical nuclear weapons could reach the deep bunkers with “ground shock”, much of the command and control could be dealt with and I have no doubt that the Israelis have a few other tricks up their sleeve but what about the counter attack?

17. I am afraid that Obama’s constant procrastination and belief in talking to the enemy have merely led to a huge build up in Iran’s capacity to hit back at Israel, the Gulf States and US interests. He has caused the potential for great damage.

18. Therefore, we have been advising for some time that Israel may well find the use of EMP weapons the only logical decision.

19. I do not need to repeat here the effects of such weapons. They are, by now, well known but what would be the subsequent advantages for Israel-and for the world if they are used?

20. The first advantage, that we see, is that if the attack is as successful as Israeli raids generally are, then any rogue nation who had toyed with the idea of messing with Israel will not do so in the future. Their populations would fear Israel. Far from making the world a more dangerous place, we believe (against the general consensus, I should add, in fairness) that the world will become a safer place.

21. Secondly, Israel will be able to claim, with complete honesty, that she had tried to deal with Iran in a more conventional way, along with the US but, sadly, they had come to learn that Mr Obama was strong on words but weak on action. She had no choice. (I will happily write such an essay of justification for the Israelis to present to that useless talking shop, the United Nations, should the need arise).

22. Then, with the Shia bomb threat removed, Sunni nations in the area will no longer need to acquire their own nuclear bombs. An otherwise inevitable nuclear arms race could be avoided.

23. Iran will no longer be able to be the world wide leader in exporting terrorism. Iran’s proxies will doubtless make dying gestures but their supply of weapons will disappear.

24. The US will not wake up one morning and find that nothing with a chip works where the Iranians have launched their own EMP weapon from a freighter off New York. As they have already indicated they will be able to do.

25. The increasingly ineffective West may just get a wake-up call that sometimes you have to fight to survive. Military preparedness could once again become more important than burgeoning bureaucracy.

26. The democratic Iranian opposition could well seize the day and overthrow the tyrannical theocratic rulers that imprison them. Particularly if we all give them some help, along with the humanitarian aid that will be needed.

As I hint above, I always tell my clients to understand that I may be wrong and I should do the same to you, JW’s readers. What I can tell you though, is that I admire and respect the Israelis. They have now what we once had in the UK when we faced the Nazis alone: guts and determination, and I wish them well. Whatever they decide.

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