A lost source…
I’m sorry to tell you that Debka has canceled my weekly subscription because they were angry I re-posted it here.
I begged them to reconsider as this is not a commercial site and is here for the good of us all. Unfortunately, they cut me off anyway.
If any of the users of this site has a subscription, please contact me at: josephwouk(at)gmail.com. All of us here could benefit. Thanks for your help.
This is one hairy weekend. Allepo and the Russian fleet are due to happen tomorrow. For the time being, Israel has to be ready to respond rather than taking the initiative.
Some here are convinced that Assad will pull a “Samson” when the rebels close in and will launch on Israel to preserve his Islamic honor before being killed.
I don’t know enough about Assad to judge this opinion and am interested in any knowledgeable feedback.
שבת שלום
– JW
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WarSclerotic 
July 27, 2012 at 6:03 PM
JW- not to worry…Debka that is. It shows your website is having an impact and that Debka is more interested in making a buck than getting the word out about the dangerous situation facing Israel (and the world for that matter) today. Keep up the good work.
July 27, 2012 at 6:34 PM
Debka is good and interesting if you, like me, loved Jules Verne in the childhood. More than once, people here wrote lines more accurate than the speculations we read on Debka, but hey, who doesn’t like some extra spice in his food ? We, the faithful readers of this solid site will make it further even without Debka, which still can be accessed if you have to read some bedtime stories. I think i speak for all here, if i may, when saying that Joseph Wouk does a great job bringing us to a place where we can read, write and thought together about cardinal issues of our time.
July 27, 2012 at 6:55 PM
It could all start this weekend
July 27, 2012 at 7:03 PM
Listen JW, unauthorized re-use of syndicated content is a huge issue and illegal. I believe the word for this is action is…”stealing!” Its the same as shop-lifting. I don’t blame Debka at all for their action.
You know better than to do this without permission.
And then for you to act surprised and outraged? Now that’s Chutzpah my friend!
July 27, 2012 at 7:43 PM
Kenstee…
I’m not aware of any expressed “outrage.” I am sorry, however. As hit-or-miss as Debka is, they provide a unique perspective that I am sorry to lose.
The thousands who come to this site could benefit without hurting Debka. I created this site purely for hasbara. I hoped Debka would appreciate that. I’m sorry they didn’t… and you should be too.
July 27, 2012 at 8:51 PM
And then again, writing a critique of an article with sufficient paraphrasing for readers to get the gist of said article is not stealing someone else’s work. It is, however, time consuming and tedious.
July 28, 2012 at 2:33 PM
You don’t have to buy the cow if you are getting the milk for free. Debka is in the business of SELLING subscriptions. That’s their business model like it or not. Your model is different and that’s your business. Nonetheless, re-posting of their trademarked material – no matter how nobel the motivation – is just plain wrong. “Thou shall not steal” sums up this concept quite nicely.
July 28, 2012 at 2:49 PM
Actually I paid $210 a year for the express purpose of keeping this site informed and I’m uninterested in your moralistic “tut-tutting.”
Let’s drop the subject and focus on the war, OK?
July 27, 2012 at 7:05 PM
While we appreciated the free leaks from debka I can’t say I blame them.
JW has been violating their terms of service for a long time now (pretty sure at least a year). I’m surprised debka turned the cheek as long as they did.
Some of us actually found JW’s blog by searching the web for leaks of debka articles.
But I think what set them off was JW’s recent appeal for money in which he acknowledges over 30 donations over the last 3 weeks. Debka feels (probably rightly so) that JW is profiting off of their work.
July 27, 2012 at 7:43 PM
Plenty of other sources of information. We’ll live.
Shabat Shalom
July 27, 2012 at 8:01 PM
Hi JW, here is my feedback:
The rulers of the middle east have proven that they never hesitate to resort to all means to remain in power. It is not the question of culture or dictatorship, it is imprinted in their DNA. Hafiz Assad and Bashar Assad are the good example of “like father, like son”. Hafiz killed 30 thousand of Hama people . So far, his son is lagging behind. If there is any doubt that he won’t gas Syrian people or nearby countries, look at the Saddam’s record who gassed tens of thousands of Iraqis and Iranians. For those who weren’t lucky enough to be killed instantly, life is reduced to an excruciating torture.
July 27, 2012 at 8:11 PM
JW, were you posting premium content only available to debka members or just the articles that are free to view on their website?
July 27, 2012 at 9:18 PM
Joseph,
You ask for feedback on Assad. I am not sure this is as knowledgeable as some of your own people but here goes anyway:
Well, although I am a defence and geopolitical analyst myself here in the UK, (and that’s why I read your terrific website several times a day-it’s one of the very best) I am afraid that, the older I get, the more I realise I don’t know. So maybe I am not the best guy to comment. However ignorance has never been a bar to analysts giving a view in the past, so here goes.
I, and my colleagues, watch Syria very closely at the moment. Very closely indeed. Those we advise are pretty tense about the situation there too. That is watching Syria with one eye. The other eye is focused on Iran.
The question you pose has also been put to us by others.
My view is (and it is not the official consensus view, I should add, by word of warning) that the Assad regime; not necessarily the head honcho eye specialist himself, but perhaps those around him, is indeed capable of launching the sort of attack you mention.
However, that does not mean that the regime will only do this as a prelude to a sort of “Gotterdammerung” climax. I think they could do it before that point, perhaps to draw Iran into the situation more fully, following the inevitable consequences of such an attack on Israel.
I believe that it is absolutely imperative that Syria’s WMDs must be destroyed-and as soon as possible-before they can be used directly or passed, even in part, to various terrorist proxies. I fear that the West generally, including my own country, may lack the will to do this and it may, yet again, be left to the Israelis. I hope that I am wrong. I hope that the US and NATO will actually act rather than holding meetings but I am not holding my breath.
So-to answer your question: A real and present danger.
Best wishes and keep up the great work. And always remember-I may be wrong.
Rupert
July 27, 2012 at 9:25 PM
Rupert, you’re singing my song. The only variation is that mine says “I’m PROBABLY wrong.”
July 27, 2012 at 9:42 PM
Right now, the syrian best ally is Iran – if you don’t count the russians, of course. However, the very moment that Syria will launch an attack on Israel will be also the moment that a mega strike will be on the go to Iran – USA included in the operation.
This is the reason that Assad won’t samsoning strike Israel, as long as the iranian oxygen can hold him alive. But Assad will concentrate the full might of the syrian army against the rebels and a huge lost of lives will happen in and around Aleppo.
It is very probable that Israel will take advantage from the syrian army situation and will operate in Iran, much sooner than we are thinking.
With good health wishes for our great friends from the UK, Luis.
July 27, 2012 at 11:36 PM
While Israel may “take advantage from the Syrian army situation”. don’t be so myopic as to overlook that the U.S./Obama will be looking to take advantage themselves! This “game” has been long and protracted and the U.S. has been striving to put itself in a key position for some time. I wouldn’t be suprised that the U.S. State Dept / CIA backed “freedom” fighters in Syria might be let to toss a few WMD tipped misiles in the direction of Israel. After all… It would let Obama seemingly respond to Israel’s defence… showing him to be a strong leader. Something that he desperatly needs in the upcoming election
July 27, 2012 at 9:30 PM
More than nuclear weapons, the leadership of Iran wishes to have their revolutionary guard standing directly across from Israel’s borders. They will make every effort to prevent Assad from falling and use this situation to flood Syria with their troops.
July 27, 2012 at 9:43 PM
Rupert Prince’s comment is an intelligent analysis. I agree with him. The situation in the middle east is not kind of “Après moi, le déluge”. The mindset of some rulers is Messianic, even atheist ones like Bashar Assad. So pre-condition for his use of WMD need not be realized just at the last minutes prior to his downfall.
July 27, 2012 at 9:58 PM
JW,
I doubt that Assad wold launch some sort of spasmodic strike if his regime is on the brink of collapse. One reason is that the Alawites and perhaps the Christians will pay dearly for any WMD use. While he knows his time is limited I doubt he would want his religious group blamed and massacred. He must know his days are numbered, unless he imports IRGC troops to put down the uprising city by city.
With the Russian fleet on it way he may be attempting to find a way out for his family and a few courtiers. If this is the case he may want to use the Russians as an intermediary to make some deal where he leaves, keeps most of his hidden money and fades from memory. The Russians would probably take him for a small fee and the transfer of his cash to Russian banks. Then in four or five years he will develop an inoperable tumor or have a “heart attack” and that will be that.
More probable is the transfer of small quantities of WMD’s to Hezbollah to give them some sort of deterrence visa vi Israel. With Assad gone Hezbollah can brag about its trump card to use against Israel. Some sort of limited transfer must be avoided since Hezbollah would not hesitate to use them against the Lebanese Christians, Sunni’s or Israel. Possession of such weapons would make Hezbollah and be extension Iran the kingmakers in Lebanon. Thus, all means must be used to ensure that they never even come close to having any WMD capability. The question is if Iran will allow strikes on Syria in general and the WMD’s in particular. The Iranians know that Assad’s days are numbered, unless they intervene in a very large way. Such an intervention could trigger protest on Iranian streets, which is something the government wants to avoid, despite their willingness to use repression. A good Iranian strategy would be to let Assad go but make sure that Hezbollah has some of his WMD’s so they are a small but powerful enclave of Iranian influence.
The thing few are talking about is the deployment of an AN/TPY-2 x-Band radar to Qatar. I may be wrong about some of these placements–forgive me–but I thought there was one in the Sinai and one in Turkey. While based in Qatar would give more warning time for ship-based interceptors and then Green Pine and the Arrow system, I get the feeling that basing the radar in Qatar is the first tangible step in the Obama administrations acceptance of a nuclear armed Iran. If this is the case, and I do believe that Obama wants or will tolerate a nuclear Iran, this is much more dangerous the Hezbollah or Assad using WMD’s. Furthermore, the optimum strategy for the US would be to try to topple Assad by various active means as well as using proxies and covert means. However, it does not seem that the US really wants Assad out. Breaking the Syrian/Iranian alliance would be devastating to Hezbollah and Iran yet it seems that the Obama administration does not see this.
Israel will have to deal with the Iranian nuke program unless there is a change of administration this fall–lets keep our fingers crossed.
July 28, 2012 at 4:47 AM
In response to Spud’s opening paragraph the annihilation of the Alawite sect is certain if and when Assad falls. Just as you correctly pointed out what would happen to the minorities in Lebanon should Hezbollah ever acquire chemical and/or biological weapons (god forbid); the same is true to all minorities and sects in the middle east. This is why I believe that Assad will fight to the very last bullet.
The last week has been quite interesting. To placate the Kurds Assad has moved a good number of his troops from the Turkish border, to reinforce the assault on Allepo, and allowed the Kurds free reign in their area. Kurds from both Iraq and Iran are now flooding into this area and as you can imagine this does not sit to well with the Turkish government.
Turkey and Syria was on the verge of an all out war due to Syria’s support of the PKK. War was averted when Syria deported abdullah ocalan, the PKK founder, to Turkey where he is still imprisoned. My biggest fear is that Turkey will view the latest development as an casus belli and invade northern Syria and invoke Article 5 of the NATO treaty. .
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/regional-developments-strengthen-the-pkks-hand.aspx?pageID=238&nid=26509&NewsCatID=405
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19021766
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/27/us-syria-crisis-idUSBRE8610SH20120727?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FworldNews+%28Reuters+World+News%29