WarSclerotic

There is no such thing as a non-important visit by a U.S. secretary of state to Israel. The guest’s persona and stature make it impossible to apply that category, especially when it comes to Hillary Clinton, whose familiarity with Israel dates back many years. She has witnessed events unfold on the world stage for 12 years, as the first lady, and then in her current capacity under President Barack Obama.

To a large extent, though, this current visit is not so rich with substance as it is more focused on the political than on the diplomatic. There have been two main topics governing the talks on the Jerusalem-Washington axis over the past several years . Although the Iranian issue is not under Clinton’s responsibility but is under the jurisdiction of other government agencies, she is nonetheless in the know, as it is an integral part of her job description. There are no big announcements on this front, apart from the growing sense that the U.S. has given up hope of striking a deal with Iran, for now at least. The American negotiators had assumed that the ayatollahs would have the foresight that would obviate the need for more severe sanctions.

Although the U.S. is no longer under this illusion, it still believes it can bring the Iranians back to the negotiating table for serious discussions by adopting a policy based on biting sanctions. So Israel and the U.S. appear to have made progress when it comes to coordinating their actions, but this does not mean they see eye to eye. Hence the two sides’ diverging take on the likelihood of an Israeli strike before the U.S. presidential elections, a scenario that has been played down of late.

Even if the Americans arrived here to discuss a joint operation against Iran, they undoubtedly seek international legitimacy for such action. Given the current Russian and Chinese policy over Syria, they should not harbor high hopes. But the main rationale behind Clinton’s visit is not just a desire to throw a going-away party for a possible Israeli military strike on Iran, but a genuine interest in seeing no Israeli planes fly over Iranian air space. She is not the only one to express these feelings.

National Security Adviser Tom Donilon’s secret visit last week was also meant to advance this very cause. While Donilon’s motives may be professional, the upcoming visit by Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta on July 28, in which he will reiterate U.S. reassurances for Israel, is first and foremost political, albeit with the same professional substance.

Panetta’s visit will coincide with another visit, that of presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney. The Obama administration wants to balance the photo ops and declarations in the Holy Land showing on the American voter’s TV screen. Because Obama was not available on those dates, his secretary of defense had to fill in. This is all too convenient, as it represents an opportunity to apply pressure on Israel once again to avoid a military strike on Iran, for now.

The seeds of disagreement were sown in the past and are still present and are noticeable even in Obama’s recent interview, in which he takes some of the blame for the failed peace talks between the Israelis and the Palestinians, although Obama does not clear the two parties from any blame. But Clinton did not come here for anything other than blurring the differences. There is now a respite until November 2012 unless the developments in Israel outpace events in the U.S. and force Israelis to the polls before.