WarSclerotic

Less than two weeks ahead of a third round of talks between Iran and six world powers, the Institute for Science and International Security, a U.S. research institute published a document on Monday titled “Is Iran building a third enrichment plant?”

In an article written by David Albright, head of the ISIS and research Andrea Stricker, the two write, “[U]nder Iran’s interpretation of its safeguards obligations, Iran can essentially finish construction of a gas centrifuge plant before notifying the IAEA of its existence. Iran is trying to assert that is has a right to build a centrifuge plant in secret.”

They continue, “ISIS has assessed that international concern over Iran’s ability to breakout in secret should increase in 2013 due to the possible construction of a hidden centrifuge enrichment site and simultaneously growing stocks of 3.5 and 19.75 percent low enriched uranium that would allow the speedier production of weapon-grade uranium.”

In the article, the authors refer to what the head of Iran’s nuclear program, Fereydoun Abbassi-Davani, said last year — that the construction of additional enrichment facilities has been delayed by two years.

“Now, one year later, what is the status of a new centrifuge plant in addition to the Natanz and Fordow centrifuge plants? Is the plant still deferred for another year or has Iran changed its mind once again and begun building a third centrifuge plant in secret? It would not be the first time, as witnessed by Iran’s past secret construction of the Natanz centrifuge site, the Kalaye Electric centrifuge research and development plant, and the deeply buried Fordow centrifuge facility,” Albright and Stricker write.

Although the article does not present a decisive conclusion over the construction of a third Iranian enrichment plant, ISIS is closely-affiliated with Israeli and U.S. intelligence sources and it is possible that the new report expresses the concerns of these officials over developments in Iran.

Meanwhile, in the face of predictions that the nuclear talks between Iran and the international community are likely to fail, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency Yukio Amano announced on Monday that a parallel series of talks between Iran and his organization — regarding the work of international inspectors in the country — will resume on Friday in Vienna, the opening day of a week-long meeting of the IAEA’s 35-nation governing board.

Amano noted that satellite images indicate buildings are being demolished and soil removed at Parchin, an Iranian military site the U.N. nuclear watchdog wants to visit.

Amano’s comments will reinforce Western diplomats’ suspicions that Iran is trying to remove any incriminating evidence from the Parchin facility before possibly granting the IAEA access.

Amano said he hoped his agency and Iran would soon finalize an agreement enabling U.N. nuclear inspectors to resume a long-stalled investigation into suspected nuclear weapons research in the Islamic Republic.

The agency’s immediate priority in its investigation is to visit Parchin, where it believes Iran may have carried out high explosives tests that could be used in developing nuclear weapons.

Parchin, which Iran says is a conventional military complex, is at the center of Western allegations that Iran has conducted experiments — possibly a decade ago — that could help it develop nuclear bombs. Iran denies any such ambition.

Last week, ISIS published satellite images of Parchin which it said underscored concern that Iran is trying to destroy evidence of possible nuclear weapons-related research.

The institute posted the pictures on its website after the IAEA showed diplomats at a closed-door briefing similar images that Western envoys said suggested a clean-up at Parchin.

“The satellite imagery indicates that these activities include the use of water, demolishing of buildings, removing fences and moving soil,” Amano told a news conference.

“These are some of the activities that we have observed through satellite imagery,” he said, expressing concern that they could hamper the agency’s efforts to find out what has been going on at the site, if and when it gains access.

Western diplomats say the buildings that appear to have been razed recently are small side buildings near the main structure that is of interest to the IAEA.

Amano made a rare visit to Tehran two weeks ago and said when he returned to the Austrian capital that he expected a framework cooperation deal with Iran to be signed soon.

Iranian officials have made clear that only after reaching this kind of deal will they allow U.N. inspectors to visit Parchin, where the IAEA suspects Iran built a steel containment vessel in which to carry out the explosives tests.

Amano said both sides had shown flexibility in previous meetings and “we have narrowed down the differences … it is close” to be agreed.

The IAEA says Tehran has stonewalled its investigation for almost four years, and Western diplomats have voiced doubt that Iran will implement any agreement that is reached.

They say Iran may be offering increased cooperation with the IAEA as a bargaining chip in its talks with world powers on ending the decade-old standoff over Tehran’s nuclear program, an impasse that has led to the imposition of increasingly tough economic sanctions on Iran and fears of a new Middle East war.

“I think they are just stalling for time,” one Western diplomat said about Iran.

Amano told the board that Iran was not providing the cooperation needed to enable the IAEA to give “credible assurance about the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities” in the country.

Expressing defiance, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said the “nuclear issue is part of the excuses and obstacles that arrogant powers impose on Iran,” Iran’s ISNA news agency reported.

“They try to prevent Iran from making progress in any possible way,” he told a group of Egyptian journalists.

Dagan: Five minutes after attack on Iran, regional war will break out

In Israel, former Mossad chief Meir Dagan commented on the Iranian nuclear threat, saying “I do not think a military option against Iran’s nuclear facilities is the right thing to do now. No one ever asks themselves the question: what will happen five minutes after an attack on Iran? Five minutes after the bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities, we will find ourselves in a regional war.”

Speaking at a lecture to students at Ben-Gurion University, Dagan said, “Iran will respond, Hezbollah will respond, terrorist organizations in Gaza, as well as Assad, who is in a war of survival in his own country, will also respond.”

The former Mossad chief said he would not rule out a military option against Iran, but stressed that this should be the last resort.

“The idea of bombing Iran is simplistic and misleading because no on has given any thought to what would happen next,” he said. “The military option should be the last option available for Israel and all Western countries who oppose Iran’s nuclear program.

According to Dagan, during his term as head of Mossad and in all security forums in Israel, he always said that if he was convinced that an attack on Iran would halt its nuclear program for a period of at least ten years, he would support a military offensive against Tehran.