WarSclerotic

The endless guessing game about whether Israel is planning to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities in the coming months continues.  Now we have two pieces of fresh evidence – but they seem to point in opposite directions.

First, there is the outbreak of dissent amongst top Israeli securocrats – several of whom have gone on the record, to say that an attack on Iran would be a v.bad idea. On the other hand, Netanyahu has just formed a government of national unity – which includes three former chiefs of the defence staff.

Even among the US and European diplomats who follow this story intently, there is a division of opinion about what all this means. One senior American warns that we should not too much faith (or hope) in the fact that former heads of Mossad and Shin Bet have come out against an attack. “Israel is a democracy, and has a culture that encourages dissent,” the US official says. “But in the end, these guys are not the ones making the decision. It will be Netanyahu and Barak – and we know where they stand.”

Another rather less senior US official is much more sceptical of Israeli war talk. He describes the Israelis as “total bullshit artists” – adding, “they’re never going to do this. They are just trying to bluff America into doing it for them.”

I don’t know if this is right. But I’ve certainly felt a slight ratcheting down of the tension in recent months. At the beginning of the year, there seemed to be a sense that an Israeli attack this year was more likely than not. Now, however, the Israelis seem to have gone relatively quiet on the subject of Iran – and tensions are diminishing. Perhaps it is because sanctions have been tightened and international talks with Iran are underway. Or maybe it’s the calm before the storm. As one American who expects an attack puts it – “If a raid was imminent, you would expect them to go quiet.”