WarSclerotic

Waiting for Bashar Assad’s exit – Arab News.

The Syrian leader seems to be living in an alternate reality of his own making

As bloodshed mounts in Syria, pundits argue, President Bashar Assad has finally realized that the security approach is a grave mistake. As tensions in Syria mount, it seems that the security-minded decision makers are on the retreat.

Soon, Assad is expected to confirm his agreement to form a national government that includes opposition and independents. This new government’s mission will be to oversee parliamentary elections and prepare for presidential elections. There will be no veto on any political party or person, elections will be internationally monitored, and the outcome will be honored. According to the new agreement, presidency will be a four-year term provided that a president cannot rule more than two terms. Should this initiative succeed, it will close a chapter of political history and turn a new leaf.

And yet, latest events reveal that there is a gap within the presidency between those who still believe in the security solution to the crisis and those moderates who make the case for the necessity of respecting the Syrian people and responding to their demands. From the beginning, moderates argued for a benign approach, a trial of officials responsible for escalation in Dar’a, and political reform.

This moderate trend was both isolated at the beginning of the crisis and accused of opportunism. Extremists believed that there was a plot and that employing force was a necessity. However, eventually, they all found out that the security approach has simply backfired as it created domestic tension and made a reform initiative difficult. On the other hand, now Assad is no longer calling the shots. The impact of the Syrian street, regional and international public opinion, and the Arab proactive stand now influence decision-making in Syria. Worse still, was when the cooperative relations with Ankara were transformed into enmity, as the probability of war increased and the chances of peace and diplomacy receded.

What all observers are wondering is: Will Assad step down? Will Syria transform into a democratic political system instead of this patriarchic and familial one? Will Assad leave Syria for its people without destruction, bloodshed, or civil war? Is Assad’s decision a Syrian one or a regional one in which Iran and Hezbollah also have a say? Will he flee the country undetected?

Many pundits also ponder the Iranian position. Interestingly, some even talk about Gulf diplomacy playing a part and a political reform package in the near future. Consultative councils in the Gulf will soon meet in Jeddah. Also, the former head of the Saudi intelligence, Prince Turkey Faisal, stressed that the Gulf states should stand up to external challenges. He also calls for a unified Gulf consultative council, common currency, and a common army. Additionally, Prince Muqrin bin Abdulaziz, the head of the Saudi intelligence, confirms that the Gulf states are very guarded because of the Iranian nuclear file. US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta said at Brookings Institute that Iran should be a nuclear-free country, as Tehran is becoming a source of serious threat to the region. Indeed, Arab intellectuals warn against the perils of the Persian expansion in the region, should they go unchallenged.

Another senior official in the American National Security Council also confirmed that the Malki government is on its way out and a rearrangement of the political process in Iraq to restore its balance is under way. Maliki is moving in various directions to pre-empt this scenario and accordingly he signed strategic and security agreements with Iran. He also received the deputy of Waly Al-Faqih and supports Assad’s government. Meanwhile, Hezbollah is attempting to rebuild its relations with leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood, generously spend the Iranian money in Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt, and the party provides some presidential candidates blank checks to help them mobilize support in presidential and parliamentary elections in Tunisia and Egypt. Additionally, Iran is backing the Houthis in Yemen.

Apparently, a new political environment is in the making. America is retreating and civilized Islamic groups are on the ascendance. Also, there is a Western attempt to generalize a new model that is based on decentralization. This means a model that is based on a weak central government vis-à-vis the periphery.

The reorganization of the Syrian government will certainly have an impact on Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, and Jordan. It will reinforce the power of the Muslim Brotherhood and the civilized reform movements, particularly when the Brothers’ discourse is closer to the civil discourse as is the case in Tunisia and Egypt.

Now, we are all waiting on Assad’s next speech. But he may let us down and will come with pledges that cannot be implemented and in the context of buying time. In an interview with ABC’s Barbara Walters on Dec. 6, that he had requested, Assad vehemently denied ordering a deadly crackdown in Syria – a denial that is of paramount importance as it may cause more military defections.

“No government in the world kills its people unless it’s led by a crazy person,” he said in the interview. Which begs the question: Is Assad insane, a liar, or is he simply living in an alternate reality of his and his cronies’ own making, in which some “other” delinquent forces are to blame for the crisis? You decide.

(alibluwi@yahoo.com)

This entry was posted on December 10, 2011 at 6:46 PM and is filed under Uncategorized. You can subscribe via RSS 2.0 feed to this post's comments. You can comment below, or link to this permanent URL from your own site.