WarSclerotic

Israel should not underestimate the Iranian regime, and should also not rush to use force against their nuclear program, former Mossad chief Meir Dagan told Channel 2’s investigative reporter Ilana Dayan on Thursday night in his first television interview since retiring last year.

“Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is sophisticated only when his intended audience is not the Israeli public or Western audiences. I think the people there [in Iran] are sophisticated and smart, and we should not underestimate the Iranians,” Dagan told Dayan on the “Uvda” (Fact) television program.

The former Mossad chief, whose vocal opposition to Israeli military action against Iran’s nuclear facilities has sparked controversy in recent months, said he believed the Iranians were not progressing in their pursuit of a nuclear bomb as quickly as is widely believed and there was still plenty of time to stop them from acquiring the bomb.

“I presume that when [the Iranians] reach the final breakthrough [in the path to a nuclear weapon] they will run into a confrontation with the international community, so I presume we will have a reasonable warning period within this schedule, and I think then there will still be enough time to make dramatic and extreme decisions over the use of military force,” he said.

Dagan warned that if Israel decides to attack Iran now, it runs the risk of being hit with a counterattack that could include coordinated missile strikes by Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah. Syria could also join in attacks against Israel, he said.

“In view of Syria’s problematic situation, there’s a good chance the Syrians would join in” to divert attention from the riots against the regime, Dagan said.

“This will pull Israel into a regional war,” warned Dagan. “There is also the question of what happens the day after and what price we will be forced to pay as a result of this move against Iran. The level of destruction, the degree to which normal life will be paralyzed, the ability of Israelis to maintain a normal lifestyle over time – the price we will have to pay in human life will be higher.”

He added, “I’m concerned about possible mistakes and I prefer to speak out before there is a catastrophe. I think that engaging, with open eyes, in a regional war is warranted only when we are under attack or when the sword is already cutting against our live flesh. It is not an alternative that should be chosen lightly.”

The comments came in response to remarks made by Defense Minister Ehud Barak last month that in any confrontation or war between Israel and Iran, “There will not be 50,000 or 5,000 or even 500 dead” Israelis.

Dagan countered Barak’s comments, stressing that such a war would likely take a heavy toll on Israel in terms of loss of life and a paralysis of normal life in the country.

“I admit, I’m troubled by the Defense Minister’s comments that we have a window of nine months until we can no longer act against Iran. The implication I gather from this is that Israel should and must act within this nine-month time frame. I do not share this assessment,” Dagan said.

He also commented on attempts by government officials to silence him, after statements he has made in recent months on Iran have triggered a political fire storm.

“No defense minister, prime minister or finance minister, all of whom I respect very much, will prevent me from expressing my opinions. We do not live in an undemocratic country. In a democracy, people like me also have the right to express their views.”

Dagan has said on several occasions that he views an Israeli military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities as “the stupidest thing I have ever heard.”

He later said that attacking Iran “would mean regional war, and in that case you would have given Iran the best possible reason to continue the nuclear program. The regional challenge that Israel would face would be impossible.”

His remarks drew condemnation from Israeli ministers, who urged him to stop speaking publicly on the issue, and led to reports that his diplomatic passport had been revoked in response.

The former spymaster has also cast doubts over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Barak’s suitability to decide correctly over the Iranian issue. Last month, Dagan again made headlines when he was reportedly the source for a front-page column in Yedioth Ahronoth which stated that Barak and Netanyahu had already decided to attack Iran and were not properly consulting their fellow ministers, as well as the country’s security chiefs.

During the interview Thursday night, Dagan also hinted he was considering entering politics in the next few years. “I am not rejecting this option, nor am I confirming it,” he said.

Dagan will be a guest at the Saban Forum’s eighth U.S.-Israel Strategic Dialogue, set to convene in Washington over the weekend.